SUPP 2017 Mafia, Mod Thread

[the worst]

it should continue until all threats are ded
like they could in theory stab them all to death
in practice the chance is like <5% but still

[the worst]

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
they can't kill town
huhm

[Errantparabola]

Yeah, but i feel like this sort of thing should be a generalized decision rather than a case by case thing
Like either the third party role as a role/alignment exists mechanically as a threat to town or not
Like if somehow town lost their minds and lynched everyone except vaxkiller, pun would solowin

[the worst]

yeah it's an unresolved wincon, they actively need town to die to achieve it
I think your ruling makes a lot of sense, just a grey area

on the contrary it'd be pretty cruel to end the game early and not even give them a chance to fulfil it. they're welcome to concede if they feel they're stuffed

[Ankamius]

The issue with this specific wincon is that technically the same thing applies if they die, they have infected alive, and otherwise only town are alive...

[the worst]

it's challenging as hell.
Pun's assessment that their strongest chance of winning was working with me + (my anonymous partner) was absolutely on the ball.

still....a lot better than a standard SK wincon.

[Ankamius]

I'm not really sure what the logic behind lynching me before Pun could post again was

[Ankamius]

If I was in that position, I'd snark hard all day tomorrow and not pay attention to a single thing anyone else says

[Krazy]

Siding with the worst was a fatal mistake for Pun, there's like no way he survives now

[Ankamius]

that's heartbreaking

I don't see what town loses by no lynching

[the worst]

I was so strongly advocating pushing it into 6p so we could just endlessly no lynch.... and the last scum slot had a great opportunity to kill Vaxk and work around a win with Pun. mistakes were deffo made

[Ankamius]

Ankamius is the player who has the most extensive experience with me; for this, I can cite examples such as all of Fallout 4 Mafia but particularly here and over half of Police Academy.

linking a 500 post iso and a 630 post iso probably isn't the most productive way of illustrating this point tbh

[Ankamius]

it's a correct statement and the posts that indicate it as such are in there, but nobody's going to go looking for them

[Ankamius]

just to detail it somewhere

Spoiler: fallout mafia

I would also like to emphasize that, were I pun here, I'd had to have double-bussed from the onset as projectmatt and MariaR were suspicions of mine since the moment I replaced in and I was advocating for their deaths since the moment I was a player. (You will not find a player who pushed projectmatt harder than I did; you will not find a player more adamant we lynch MariaR.) I place value on play in most situations and my play is strongly evident of me not being pun as I have a strong record of not bussing in most situations, if I am capable of avoiding it.

The things you hold suspicion of me on, of me not following through on a promise to provide more recent content, you also know to be not alignment indicative, or if indicative of alignment at all, indicative of me holding a town alignment as I am atrocious at providing followthrough to my promises.

I've taken both of these into account, Pun. I even stated before when I talked about your recent content that it's not actually indicative by itself, but I'm starting to see roughly what plan you'd have if you were scum this game.

I think it's entirely possible that you were scum this game for a few reasons:

1. On day two, the playerlist was still fairly high caliber. You needed to be able to fool not only myself who had a strong scumread on your slot, but Ouroboros/Impossibear (both of which had fairly strong reads and were strongly townread throughout the game), conftown/obvtown and active Kaede Akamatsu/OnTheMark, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, who is at least believably a higher tier player, and probably others that I'm not quite aware of your history with.
2. Your claim was entirely locked in when you replaced in. While I don't think it's the type of role you would want to have out there until you absolutely have to as town, it still provided a pretty convenient shield to hide behind so you could get as much towncred as possible. Without this shield, there's no way you could get away with still being alive all this way into the game.
3. This gamestate is starting to look like something you'd cook up to coast on your towncred with. All the competent correct players are dead, followed by the player with the strongest PR, then the player holding town together. The only thing that gives me pause here is that I think Alchemist21 isn't someone you'd exactly be chomping at the bit to kill night 6 (over myself and REALMEN at least, I know you are well aware I can completely solve the game out of nowhere in LyLo or the day before). So you have your shield intact along with your bussing towncred, most of the slots that could see through it are dead, and the slots that are left alive are the ones that were apathetic for most of the game and likely to go wherever the momentum of the day went, giving you options of where you want to push.
4. I've been doing my own VCA and I think your slot has the sketchiest day 1-3, along with Dunnstral. I can go into this more later, but the part that is really screwing with me regarding this is that wilky's placement via that is a massive question mark and just with raw information, he's the best lynch today. However, I don't trust that I'll still be alive tomorrow whether or not you're scum because if my deductions are mostly correct at that point, it's not that big of a stretch to come to the conclusion that I'll have the last scum caught on day 8 and the game will be harder to win for them as a result.

But I will say this:

Additionally, it did not escape my notice that near the end when projectmatt was at risk of death more seriously, she had what amounted to a flip-out and almost entire read-inversion, where she did essentially everything except advocate for his lynch in spite of previously having done so.

You know very very well this is strong evidence for me being town this game and it's really really worrying that you think it's more scum-indicative.

But. Regarding how I've been treating you this game:

It's far more useful for me to let you do you own thing and judge it from afar without tainting your conclusions with my own thoughts. This is exactly how I eventually concluded that you were town, because in a gamestate where my reads were proven correct over and over again and where I was blindingly obvious town, you rallied around me and tried to work with me and keep me from apathying out, which is absolutely never what you would do if you were scum. Yet I gave you the freedom to make that choice yourself without pressure from me (except for when I was sheeping ETL, but that just made it more strongly town-indicative if anything.)

You know where my weaknesses are and what buttons to push to accentuate them. It's not difficult, the pieces for keeping that in place were already there. However, one thing I did misjudge is that I no longer believe that you necessarily need a plan to keep me from being a strong force in the game since the first two days without your influence was more than enough to do that itself. All you'd really need to do after getting rid of all the other strong slots that would catch you is to both engineer a gamestate where I'm unlikely to catch you and where I would be gunning for a slot that isn't you.

That's entirely doable for you.

That's the thing, REALMEN. Does she think that's more dangerous than you or myself randomly solving the game?

Oh, trust me

Pun pushing me as scum is suicide

My heart of hearts really wants to say that Wilky is the last scum, it just makes complete sense to me at this stage.

I don't think RMOJ-scum would push for Punreader the way he has, or really just about anything he's done today. It's a bizarre way to try to push the game since it wasn't particularly likely that Punreader would be lynched from it.
Prof Fridays is weirding me out a bit with the sudden sheep on me, but otherwise I don't think the slot is all that scummy. I think YT through and through was town enough to make up for Ramcius' weird play before that.
Punreader... eh, I really really think I'd be dead by now if they were scum, especially since we had two full day phases since the last scum lynch. I could see why Kaede would die over me (especially since if anyone would be able to pick up on why I'd die night five, it's probably her), but I doubt Alchemist would be dead here if Pun was scum. It's far too risky.

Dunnstral... I'm not sure. I don't think the MariaR action interaction is as strong as Punreader thinks it is, but there's not a whole lot that specifically suggests the slot is particularly scummy past whatever I was death tunneling him for on day two.
Wilky just makes sense as scum no matter how I look at it; now that I look at a bunch of stuff in day one, the interactions with MariaR look unnatural and his general play doesn't look town. I can see him being scum in the setup... kind of? I'm not strong enough in setup spec in setups this complex to really make a call on that. I think Wilky makes a lot of sense as a perpetrator for the slots that are dying this game (confirmed or confirmable PRs over direct play). When I look at the vote counts, he makes sense as scum in places that Dunnstral really doesn't, at least not as much.

Bringing someone else into the gambit when he's only scum would pretty quickly expose it as a gambit, so it was a reliable failure, if that makes sense. So in that sense I can understand Dunnstral's point, but I'm not sure I agree with it.

You don't understand Pun like I do

In order for it to be a scum gambit, it needs a motivation to be a play worth pursuing and it needs a problem to address.

Only RMOJ is really scumreading them in this gamestate and worst case scenario, I just die tonight and my townread can be used as a shield to stop you two from having a leg to stand on with scumreading them

Why then would they risk it all on a gambit that would immediately be known to be false by at least one town and would shake up the game when the last lynch is already highly likely to be Dunnstral

It doesn't really fit and Pun isn't a bad enough scum player to do that

Spoiler: police academy

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

ETL, this is an official reach out:

I think Punreader was exactly right in saying that a Punreader-lynch is absolutely horrible for town. Even if you think they're trying to fearmonger, realize that

Punreader's reads and my reads are now exactly the same.

Even if you don't trust me, trust Jingle who has me as obvtown, and trust that I literally cannot see Punreader being scum with any slot except Jingle (and OnTheMark, but I'm setting them aside, I'm willing to trust the strong townreads on that slot.)

If Punreader is lynched today, then I die tonight and eddie/jjh have a chance at winning, since the two slots that have those two PoEd down are dead.

If there isn't enough proof that this is the case, just look at eddie's posts on this page.

It's blatantly scum. The moment they flip, look what happens:

I'm literally 100% obvtown
Punreader is 100% obvtown
Titus is already 99.9% obvtown
I already think you're 100% obvtown

If you assume that your read on Jingle is true, my read on Nosferatu is true, and your combined read on OnTheMark's slot is true, then the only slot left is jjh.

Even if it's not Jjh, we can just narrow down Jingle/Nosferatu/OnTheMark and have a guaranteed third scum lynch easily.

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

The difference is that Punreader doesn't make sense as scum outside of very specific circumstances.

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

I know pretty damn well the philosophy that Punreader has for night play and that in order for Punreader to be scum with that in mind, they'd have to go completely against that philosophy.

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

Punreader is my weakest strong townread, but there's one huge thing that stops me from scumreading this entirely. I know very well how they handle the nightgame as both alignments. They are meticulous and look to eliminate the biggest threat possible to them. Punreader's main has, in the past, expressed a fear of my towngame. I came in and almost immediately caught Almost50 as scum. I rallied for him being lynched yesterday despite two L-2 wagons already existing. If Punreader is scum with anybody but Titus or Nosferatu, this is already scary. Imagine a slot that has been in the background and doing close to nothing, then getting replaced by a player you fear, correctly calling your two mislynch targets for the day town, then successfully rallying for a partner of yours that is suspected, but hasn't been in danger of being pushed into a lynch. Now imagine this: If Punreader is scum with eddie or Gorkington, then the situation is: The above is all true, but I also have proven I have influence in the game, and have their other partner firmly in my lynch pool, and have had it consistently there since the very beginning of my time in the game. Punreader

would not

tolerate my presence with how big a disadvantage that would bring, so they aren't scum with either of those. I don't believe Nosferatu has more than a miniscule chance of being scum. I'm willing to trust the myriad of townreads that suggest OTM's slot is town. That leaves their possible partners as... Titus, who is very very likely town, and Jingle, who is unlikely because of above. There's also the fact that we've independently reached the same conclusion and have had similar conclusions throughout the game. Until something crazy happens, I can't scumread this.

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

But, to those who don't believe my words and actions on why Pun would have killed me last night as scum, just look through Pun's ISO on how they treat and talk to me. It paints a pretty clear story.

Punreader can't be scum with eddie because of that, plus the fighting throughout the game between these two slots wasn't theater. There's no way in hell it was.
Punreader can't be scum with jjh927 because Punreader's trajectory today towards that slot isn't theater. Punreader would be pushing eddie much harder in that case, or at least 'solve' the game as something that's not eddie/jjh. Even with an assumption that they're trying to play around me gets stretched reeeeeal thin at this gambit.
Punreader can't be scum with Titus because... well, both of them are much better scum than what would have to have happened this game to make sense. Almost50 was always going to be lynched eventually this game unless both Punreader and Titus shield him indefinitely. Punreader would have to have been pushing for a bus instead of a town counterwagon (and, I should also mention, bussing is something that Punreader is NOT a fan of). Titus would have had to fold on her own counterwagon onto her partner when it became available. Titus would have to be STILL deathtunneling that slot today. It just doesn't make any sense from two players who are far better than this as scum.
Punreader can't be scum with ETL because then ETL's death push on Punreader today makes no sense.
Punreader can't be scum with OTM because while I could see their play today being theater (and firmly believe it's well within their scumranges. this is a bizarre-ass because OTM is not pushing a counter-wagon that has any possibility of overtaking Punreader. This pushback against the eddie suspicion is not helping Punreader's chances of staying alive.

So Punreader's potential partners here are me, Jingle, and Nosferatu.

Punreader + Jingle makes sense because both were hesitant to join the Almost50 wagon. The main thing that would have to be true for this to work is that for whatever reason, Jingle would have to shift from scumreading me at the end of the day after Almost50 is pretty much guaranteed to die, to holding me as obvtown. It would also require Punreader outright buddying me as well. Both of these... plus killing SGBA? I don't see the benefit of killing SGBA and going about these weird attitudes towards me unless Jingle had some sort of plan to false-clear, which doesn't make sense with how he started the day. All in all... sketchy and unlikely.

Punreader + Nosferatu... well, I think Nosferatu would be having Punreader higher in their town list if they were scum together.

So unless you think Punreader is scum with me (or maybe Nosferatu, maaaaaaaybe Jingle), then Punreader isn't scum.

Glad that's how you operate. It's not how I operate. Find the most likely scum, then lynch them. Let the votes say what it is. I could argue this meta game but it's wifom.

I can play that game too

Pun is town because our reads are the same, the way they've been interacting with me is town to a townreads, and I'm still alive in the first place.

Done.

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

anyways

1. Punreader has a history of seeing me as a threat for my reads strength; this CAN be confirmed, though I won't do it here for hopefully obvious reasons. This drastically increases my odds of being nightkilled in a Pun-scum world
2. Day 2 ended with a scum lynch on a wagon that I pushed for. Evidence that my reads don't suck extreme ass

and

I have the influence to push them through. This is grounds for being seen as a threat
3. Put those two together and it actually makes very little sense for me to be alive coming into day three; me dying wouldn't have been weird whether Pun was scum or not since... well, #2

There's also this:

4. Punreader has been engaging me for most of the game
5. Punreader has openly admitted several times that my reads helped shape their own
6. Punreader has always had their reads in a very similar lynch pool to mine

Punreader KNOWS HOW TO COUNTER ME. ^^^THIS IS NOT HOW TO COUNTER ME.

There's also the point that Punreader is a

HUGE

planner as scum. Everything has a purpose, every action is designed to do

something

. Punreader effectively cut out half of the potential scumpool day two,

doubled down

on that scumpool, and again... didn't kill the player (myself) that was basically snaring them to that scumpool. Either Punreader is already planning on lynching within a pool of like 4 players all the way to the end of the game, then Pun outright isn't scum. They're not dumb, they know how to push town into a state where they're bound to lose in LyLo. They'd have a plan already set and in motion towards that goal. I told you this before and asked you what their plan was. I sure as hell don't see it.

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

btw I should mention this too

Punreader knows that the only thing that can stop me with a strong start is by either forcing me to apathy out

or kill me

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

plus I think Punreader kills ETL n3

Subject: Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

Actually I'll go into that a bit more

Punreader kills ETL to avoid the obvtown tunnel on their slot
Use me to lynch eddie D4
Kill me N4

Titus and OTM would have bad reads and no synergy with the rest of town
Jingle... idk
Nosferatu hasn't been a presence

That would be a pretty simple endgame to win for Pun

[Errantparabola]

The issue with this specific wincon is that technically the same thing applies if they die, they have infected alive, and otherwise only town are alive...

if Pun dies then it's a clear cut case of town not having that threat alive. pun winning or not winning would have no bearing on town's ability to win the game.

modified vigs, modified bulletproofs, and even MODIFIED BULLETPROOF VIGS

that being said i thought this was greatly amusing. guess my setup designs are getting predictable

[Errantparabola]

pun is definitely making an admirable effort here

[Ankamius]

tbh if I was in that position, I'd call the game a victory anyways just for that alone

it's not impossible for Pun to win but town would have to take the less fast route to their own win in order to allow for it

[Errantparabola]

That in itself makes it an unresolved situation though
I don't think wincons are fluid in anything other than bastard games, I think that Pun's 3p role should be interpreted as a town threat from game start to Pun's death

[Ankamius]

oh sorry I didn't mean in an official way

I mean myself in that position would consider the game a victory regardless of result

[Errantparabola]

Oh sorry for misreading you

[Ankamius]

you're all good <3

[Krazy]

GG!!!!!!!

GREAT JOB SHOSHIN

GREAT JOB VAX

GREAT JOB DEAS

IM SORRY PUN, YOU WERE UNLUCKY, BUT YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE SIDED WITH THE WORST EITHER

ALSO YOU WERE RIGHT, I ALMOST SAID TO KILL GUAC EVEN AFTER THE HAMMER, I JUST DIDNT HIT SUBMIT BEFORE ERRANT LOCKED THE THREAD

BUT TOWN DID IT! YES!

I NEVER LOST FAITH!

(THIS IS A LIE I THOUGHT WE WERE GONNA LOSE)

BUT IM GONNA PRETEND NOW THAT I NEVER LOST FAITH!

[Ankamius]

that's saddening

kinda makes me want to scumside as a neutral 3p when I roll one :/

[Krazy]

Also, scum made some incredible plays this game. Making sure Esp loses the bet, that was BALLSY

The worst is incredibly frustrating to play against. DOPE MISDIRECTION DUCK

The crossbus with Espeonage and Fire Assassin was SPICY

C.Shep going nuts in twilight was FUN

this was a good game, even if I got HIGHLY TILTED the dayphase before I died because I thought we weren't going to hammer the worst

Ank I don't have comments on play on you cause you replaced in after I was dead but THANK YOU FOR REPLACING IN TO A CLUSTERFUCK OF A GAME IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION

[the worst]

The worst is incredibly frustrating to play against. DOPE MISDIRECTION DUCK

quack quack

luv u krazy