Micro 827: The Team Odds - Game Over

[BNL]

VC 1.3

Performer (2): Dunnstral, RadiantCowbells
Dunnstral (1): schadd_
schadd_ (1): Carcalilly
Carcalilly (1): northsidegal
Eragon (1): Skygazer

Not Voting (3) - Wh4t, Performer, Eragon

The deadline is 28 September 7pm UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-09-28 19:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[northsidegal]

eragon could be scum

yeah carca is likely town. Good to see we're town again!

that quote is what makes you say that? it's not exactly a controversial opinion or a deep analysis. in fact, carca is probably my only scumlean so far.

VOTE: carca

I have 2 thoughts on this
1. I think this is towny because they hop right in with a scumread and trying to actually do things to solve the game without numbers
2. I dont like the read/vote itself, because I haven't really seen too much, and also, what do you expect, to have the game solved by start of page 3?? This seems really eager.

are you saying "what do you expect, to have the game solved by page 3" as a reality check of myself as in "you shouldn't be so confident in your scumread on page 3", or are you saying it in reference to my scumead on carcalilly, as in "come on, it's unreasonable to expect

carcalilly

to have the game solved by page 3"?

i'm assuming you were trying to go for the second one, and to that i would say that my vote wasn't based on her not having the game solved or not having strong reads or anything by page 3, and i'm not sure where you got that impression from in my posts.

i don't think quicklynching is a good idea but i don't think it's towny to say that

but didnt you just say that?

yes, i'm town and i just said that quicklynching isn't a good idea. that doesn't mean it's a towny thing to do, going off of the definition of "towny" being something that's

more likely

to come from town than scum. that's the critical distinction - there are plenty of things that people do as town that aren't towny because of just how easy they are to replicate as scum. i think that comment about quicklynching is one of them.

second part: I agree with the reasoning behind what you said, but the way you said it was kinda hypocritical, because you said, "I agree, but I dont think its towny"

see above reasoning for why i don't think it's hypocritical

So, why bring up that its not towny if you agree with it?

because someone was using it as a reason to townread someone who i scumread, and so i wanted to stop that from happening. seems relatively cut and dry to me, although that's obviously from my own perspective of actually putting forth the ideas - i can understand if i'm sometimes not as clear as i feel like i'm being.

actually i'm not going to do it, it's really nothing substantial and would probably just weaken my position

i had slight reasons for voting you (carcalilly) initially but what i really think is more scum indicative is the way you've responded to what i've been asking. as i said, perhaps i'm falling victim to confirmation bias, but i feel as if your explanations for what you were previously saying lack a logical connection in a way that makes your previous thoughts more likely to have been fabricated.

"weaken my position"
>but dont you, as town, want to be thoughtful on the read? like, if your not reading because your worried it will change your read on him, thats not pro-town

perhaps you misunderstand. it's not as if there are parts of carcalilly's ISO that i

haven't

read and am avoiding doing so for some obscure reason - i had read carca's posts and i got a vague scum impression from them initially for a multitude of reasons. my point is i feel like those initial reasons are less substantial than my current ones, and thus pointing them out (i.e. "making a lolcase") doesn't actually help me when it comes to putting forth a convincing case that carcalilly is scum.

[northsidegal]

i started making an ordered readslist and then i realized that everyone was basically null except for eragon and carcalilly

maybe rc lean town

[Skygazer]

how do people get different maths

im conftown to myself, that changes the odds of every other player involved to me differently than it does for someone else

wolfy.
why the hell would you want to quick hammer this early?
claiming that you will just gives you the space to not get lynched tommorow if you do and Dunn flips town.

Why are you taking that post at face value when I was already voting for Dunn?

????????????????????????
why would you just blatant follow someone saying someone else is locktown
????????????????????????

because RC knows nsg well enough to make that call and I trust RC's judgement for the most part when he's town. how is that possibly a bad thing?

your willing to lockdown NSg because RC says so?
then won't change until they flip scum?
what is this progression?
you dont think NSG is being active so far?

-yes
-possibly unless i get an independent read of nsg but if RC is town then NSG is very likely town
-what progression? are you just throwing buzzwords around?
-i mean i was kind of implying nsg has been active by saying that so

VOTE: Eragon

100% scummy entrance

can you explain how thats scummy?

gut pings/reaction testing but your wall made my read stronger

[northsidegal]

by the way, i'm deciding right now that if i can do alright in this game then i'm officially not washed up anymore

[northsidegal]

thoughts on carcalilly, sky?

[RadiantCowbells]

damn okay

how do I babysit you to make that happen NSG

[Eragon]

eragon could be scum

yeah carca is likely town. Good to see we're town again!

that quote is what makes you say that? it's not exactly a controversial opinion or a deep analysis. in fact, carca is probably my only scumlean so far.

VOTE: carca

I have 2 thoughts on this
1. I think this is towny because they hop right in with a scumread and trying to actually do things to solve the game without numbers
2. I dont like the read/vote itself, because I haven't really seen too much, and also, what do you expect, to have the game solved by start of page 3?? This seems really eager.

are you saying "what do you expect, to have the game solved by page 3" as a reality check of myself as in "you shouldn't be so confident in your scumread on page 3", or are you saying it in reference to my scumead on carcalilly, as in "come on, it's unreasonable to expect

carcalilly

to have the game solved by page 3"?

i'm assuming you were trying to go for the second one, and to that i would say that my vote wasn't based on her not having the game solved or not having strong reads or anything by page 3, and i'm not sure where you got that impression from in my posts.

neither, in fact. I was saying that because it seemed like you were saying "Carca is probably my only scumread so far," like, did you expect to have more? It's overall NAI I was just commenting

i don't think quicklynching is a good idea but i don't think it's towny to say that

but didnt you just say that?

yes, i'm town and i just said that quicklynching isn't a good idea. that doesn't mean it's a towny thing to do, going off of the definition of "towny" being something that's

more likely

to come from town than scum. that's the critical distinction - there are plenty of things that people do as town that aren't towny because of just how easy they are to replicate as scum. i think that comment about quicklynching is one of them.

so your using confirmation bias on why you think carca is scummy for saying that but you aren't? ok then...

second part: I agree with the reasoning behind what you said, but the way you said it was kinda hypocritical, because you said, "I agree, but I dont think its towny"

see above reasoning for why i don't think it's hypocritical

kay

So, why bring up that its not towny if you agree with it?

because someone was using it as a reason to townread someone who i scumread, and so i wanted to stop that from happening. seems relatively cut and dry to me, although that's obviously from my own perspective of actually putting forth the ideas - i can understand if i'm sometimes not as clear as i feel like i'm being.

understandable

actually i'm not going to do it, it's really nothing substantial and would probably just weaken my position

i had slight reasons for voting you (carcalilly) initially but what i really think is more scum indicative is the way you've responded to what i've been asking. as i said, perhaps i'm falling victim to confirmation bias, but i feel as if your explanations for what you were previously saying lack a logical connection in a way that makes your previous thoughts more likely to have been fabricated.

"weaken my position"
>but dont you, as town, want to be thoughtful on the read? like, if your not reading because your worried it will change your read on him, thats not pro-town

perhaps you misunderstand. it's not as if there are parts of carcalilly's ISO that i

haven't

read and am avoiding doing so for some obscure reason - i had read carca's posts and i got a vague scum impression from them initially for a multitude of reasons. my point is i feel like those initial reasons are less substantial than my current ones, and thus pointing them out (i.e. "making a lolcase") doesn't actually help me when it comes to putting forth a convincing case that carcalilly is scum.

ok, yea, I misunderstood what you were saying.

[northsidegal]

damn okay

how do I babysit you to make that happen NSG

1) if you're scum, bus your buddy with me and then bus yourself (with me on the wagon)
2) if you're town, catch all the scum with me

[Skygazer]

@nsg

WE ARE NOT LYNCHING ON PAGE 2

there is no benefit of quicklynching

none

so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you

rc why don't you agree with me

these pinged me tbh

a lot of his posts feel awkward in a way i havent figured out so i might dig into some meta

[northsidegal]

so your using confirmation bias on why you think carca is scummy for saying that but you aren't? ok then...

did i say somewhere that i think carcalilly is

explicitly scummy

for making the comment regarding quicklynching? as far as i remember i only recall saying that i don't think it makes her town. that may seem like splitting hairs, but i think it's a relatively important distinction to make.

although that being said, i would say that a kind of obvious / LAMIST comment like that might be scum indicative, but i would never put it forth as one of my main arguments for someone being scum. even still i don't think that's hypocritical or "using confirmation bias", because despite me

agreeing with the sentiment

, it wouldn't be something that i would make a post or a whole big deal about - at least, i'd imagine.

@nsg

WE ARE NOT LYNCHING ON PAGE 2

there is no benefit of quicklynching

none

so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you

rc why don't you agree with me

these pinged me tbh

a lot of his posts feel awkward in a way i havent figured out so i might dig into some meta

me as well - that's kind of the point i'm trying to make here, i guess. not sure how well i'm articulating it, honestly.

[northsidegal]

anyways, i think i'll probably take a step back from the thread for a while to let everyone else trickle in

[Eragon]

how do people get different maths

im conftown to myself, that changes the odds of every other player involved to me differently than it does for someone else

kay

wolfy.
why the hell would you want to quick hammer this early?
claiming that you will just gives you the space to not get lynched tommorow if you do and Dunn flips town.

Why are you taking that post at face value when I was already voting for Dunn?

I totally saw your vote and didnt just pass over it and ignore it. totally. definitely. you should believe me for sure.

????????????????????????
why would you just blatant follow someone saying someone else is locktown
????????????????????????

because RC knows nsg well enough to make that call and I trust RC's judgement for the most part when he's town. how is that possibly a bad thing?

because you should at least try to make your own reads, especially early game when thoughts of alignments are easily subject to change

your willing to lockdown NSg because RC says so?
then won't change until they flip scum?
what is this progression?
you dont think NSG is being active so far?

-yes
-possibly unless i get an independent read of nsg but if RC is town then NSG is very likely town
-what progression? are you just throwing buzzwords around?
-i mean i was kind of implying nsg has been active by saying that so

-
-why dont you try and make a read of NSG then?
-your progression of "Oh, Rc might be town so because they say NSG is town NSG is town too" I dont see any towny influence of sheeping someone that from your point of view has a fair chance at flipping mafia, 25% from your point of view, if you are town. so your willing to bet a 75% possible town read thats correct on another 75% chance Read? just going off numbers here, but its more helpful if you actually put effort into the game and try to solve
-thats not how it came off as

VOTE: Eragon

100% scummy entrance

can you explain how thats scummy?

gut pings/reaction testing but your wall made my read stronger

how does a entrance comment saying "wow this game is fast, gonna go catch up" ping you as scummy?
and can you explain why my wall is scummy?

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm kinda townreading our eragon

[Eragon]

so your using confirmation bias on why you think carca is scummy for saying that but you aren't? ok then...

did i say somewhere that i think carcalilly is

explicitly scummy

for making the comment regarding quicklynching? as far as i remember i only recall saying that i don't think it makes her town. that may seem like splitting hairs, but i think it's a relatively important distinction to make.

although that being said, i would say that a kind of obvious / LAMIST comment like that might be scum indicative, but i would never put it forth as one of my main arguments for someone being scum. even still i don't think that's hypocritical or "using confirmation bias", because despite me

agreeing with the sentiment

, it wouldn't be something that i would make a post or a whole big deal about - at least, i'd imagine.

@nsg

WE ARE NOT LYNCHING ON PAGE 2

there is no benefit of quicklynching

none

so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you

rc why don't you agree with me

these pinged me tbh

a lot of his posts feel awkward in a way i havent figured out so i might dig into some meta

me as well - that's kind of the point i'm trying to make here, i guess. not sure how well i'm articulating it, honestly.

ok.

I really should learn to look more at whats actually said than the implied meaning I guess

Spoiler:

[RadiantCowbells]

with eragon as town all the probabilities are pretty close

[RadiantCowbells]

NSG can I ask why you're leantown on me

[Skygazer]

because you should at least try to make your own reads, especially early game when thoughts of alignments are easily subject to change

okay, lets say RC can read nsg with wild accuracy. wouldn't it be optimal to trust that read to inform my own read rather than rely on my likely less accurate thoughts?

-why dont you try and make a read of NSG then?
-your progression of "Oh, Rc might be town so because they say NSG is town NSG is town too" I dont see any towny influence of sheeping someone that from your point of view has a fair chance at flipping mafia, 25% from your point of view, if you are town. so your willing to bet a 75% possible town read thats correct on another 75% chance Read? just going off numbers here, but its more helpful if you actually put effort into the game and try to solve
-thats not how it came off as

-i mean i do have a read of NSG, it just happens to be heavily informed by RC's read (:
-RC has like a 13% chance from my point of view actually. besides, he's very likely to eat a nightkill and i have town pings from how he's been reading me
-well then you made a bad inference especially when you consider that i was townreading nsg

how does a entrance comment saying "wow this game is fast, gonna go catch up" ping you as scummy?
and can you explain why my wall is scummy?

i mean gut ping implies its very weak just based on the specific wording
your push on me was weird esp considering you didn't back it up with a vote but i just remembered not voting much is your thing
your three scum reads seemed kind of safe (schadd, me, dunn)

[RadiantCowbells]

actually maybe im not townreading eragon

why is everyone in this game so damn scummy

[Skygazer]

iirc town eragon was still verbose but less so than scum eragon

[RadiantCowbells]

Am I the only one who thinks dunnformer r buddies

You always sr me....

there is no benefit of quicklynching

none

so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you

rc why don't you agree with me

yeah carca is likely town. Good to see we're town again!

this was a terrible townread

possible svs

[northsidegal]

NSG can I ask why you're leantown on me

-shrug-

call it a difference in philosophy this game, i guess. or maybe it's just wishful thinking. i don't really have any real concrete answer to give you.

this was a terrible townread

possible svs

same thought occurred to me, although there's no need to get ahead of ourselves. just something to keep in mind, i suppose.

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean im hard scumreading performer and you're scumreading carca and I like vaguely agree enough to support it so

maybe this is just an easy game

[RadiantCowbells]

difference in philosophy as relative to what game?

[northsidegal]

hard scumreading performer?

and yeah, maybe it is that easy. depends on how towny everyone else is, i guess.