Micro 827: The Team Odds - Game Over

[BNL]

VC 1.5

Performer (2): Dunnstral, Skygazer
Dunnstral (1): schadd_
schadd_ (1): Carcalilly
Carcalilly (1): northsidegal
Skygazer (1): RadiantCowbells

Not Voting (3) - Wh4t, Performer, Eragon

The deadline is 30 September 7pm UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-09-30 19:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[RadiantCowbells]

also this thing where people know u long enough to read u is so weird
there's people who have played with me for 5 and a half years and still got bupkiss

[RadiantCowbells]

schaddgazer I guess needs to be in contention too

[RadiantCowbells]

i guess I am kinda getting ahead of myself though I do have good feelings about what I've done so far

{RC, performer, NSG}

then team wise in the remainder

{Carca/Dunnstral}
{Carca/Eragon}
{Eragon/Dunnstral}
{Eragon/Gazer}
{Gazer/Dunnstral}
{Schadd/Gazer}

don't think I"m missing any high equity teams

[RadiantCowbells]

i should say

skygazer is by far the highest equity lynch right now

[RadiantCowbells]

like

well over 50% scum equity mathematically and I'm not comfortable with my read on her.

[RadiantCowbells]

in fairness that is dependent on some assumptions but

[RadiantCowbells]

but yeah I could cosplay as ruru or dino and make the mathematical play

[RadiantCowbells]

* A D E G H I
A 0 3 1 4 9 5-------22
D 3 0 7 5 1 1-------17
E 1 7 0 9 3 1-------21
G 4 5 9 0 8 10-------36
H 9 1 3 8 0 9-------30
I 5 1 1 10 9 0-------26
---------------------130-------65

[RadiantCowbells]

so

Wh4t is scum 33% of the time
Carcalilly is scum 26% of the time
Schadd is scum 33% of the time.
Skygazer is scum 55% of the time
Dunnstral is scum 46% of the time
Eragon is scum 40% of the time

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm curious if there's a really optimal way to lynch taht 6 that allows us to win against anything but 1/130 teams

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm sure there is if we get one more townclear but I'm trying to do it NOW!

[RadiantCowbells]

Or just, like, the highest % lynch order possible with just us 3 as clears

[RadiantCowbells]

yeah there's no way because there's bullshit like Skygazer in that scumpool that has good odds of being scum with every other person

[Skygazer]

ur math is off

[RadiantCowbells]

yea kinda cuz i'm counting teams twice

[Skygazer]

wait

or my math is off

[RadiantCowbells]

actually no

i' mright ur wrong

[RadiantCowbells]

jk no I know mine is wrong

[Skygazer]

well i realized just now that my math in my second post is def off

but im pretty sure straight up dividing the final number isn't right either?

[RadiantCowbells]

like I thought summing every pair twice would cancel in the end but life isn't that easy

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm supposed to be good at math

[RadiantCowbells]

0.2894736842
0.2236842105
0.2763157895
0.4736842105
0.3947368421
0.3421052632

same order

[RadiantCowbells]

it's altogether unintuitive to me how to approach different probabilities of people being scum

[Skygazer]

howd u arrive at that

im a music major i need some guidance