Micro 827: The Team Odds - Game Over

[BNL]

VC 1.6

Performer (2): Dunnstral, Skygazer
Dunnstral (1): schadd_
schadd_ (1): Carcalilly
Carcalilly (1): northsidegal
Skygazer (1): RadiantCowbells
Eragon (1): Wh4t

Not Voting (2) - Performer, Eragon

The deadline is 30 September 7pm UTC-4, or in (expired on 2018-09-30 19:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[Carcalilly]

schaddad is still scummy and whatty needs to catch the heck up

[Eragon]

Spoiler:

like performer is my real scumread

i'm support carca because I think NSG is a Skilled Player (TM)

why do you think performer is scum?

srry there were a lot of typos everyone except me and one other lovely person is at 0%

who dis otha persona?

well skygazer scumclaimed for both of us

VOTE: RC

gg

:MegaThonk:

you haven't faked an inno yet so no

uhh is this serious...

i have an inno on galsidenorth

Error: Scummer not recognized. Error... Error... Please Reset

you haven't faked an inno yet so no

:T

like have u formed a read yet

spicy

1. take it into account for all I care, but sheeping without having any read on the target means nothing
2. ok, just forget about the numbers and actually think about

reads

.
"also i think ive heard that nsg is more active as town? possibly?"
I dont know how else to take this other than "isnt NSg more active as town?"
but I guess your explanation makes sense
3. so my SR's are safe, but what about everyone else that SR's Schadd, you, and Dunn?
are they safe as well?

1. my success rate through smart-sheeping is better than my success rate when figuring out my own reads so actually i think ill actually just sheep from here on out
2. i am thinking about reads, the numbers only give maybe like a 4% difference in probability at the extremes, like i specifically mentioned my read on RC in the point ur responding to here so
3. ur scumreads come with the context of a lot of other people pushing dunn before you and me and schadd pushed by RC

1. :REEEEEE:
2.
3. so just because i arrive at the thread late, i cant SR the people other people SR? nice logic

iirc town eragon was still verbose but less so than scum eragon

can you point out which games your talking about?

scum: newbie 1879 and 1881
town: newbie 1882

im goin off memory here tho

We do not speak of 1879. (but i wasnt really

that

verbose. anyways i got lynched D2)
1881... *le shrug* (meh)
1882... do you not think i was quite verbose with my mega catchup wall?

im worried because the last time i scum-read era when he was town he had a much more negative/flaily reaction and that didn't rlly happen here even though he's already scumreading me

so you scumread me this game because I

didnt

react poorly to your SR of me this game???
:MegaClap:
but anyways, its been a while since that game, so ive obviously changed(and played a lot more)

yea that was an obvtown reaction

absence of it doesn't make him scum here though

yea i'm not really townreading eragon

im not sure if im flattered

i would probs still be voting era but the lynchbaityness is kind of eh

same w Dunn

lilly feels awkward in a way that i could vote but again lynchbait potential and ive seen that kind of awkwardness from town before

why do you feel the need to explain why your reads are typically all over the place early on?

lÿńçh båît uwu

how dare u not solve the game by page 9

oh no!

VOTE: Eragon
VOTE: Skygazer

/me leaves thread

god rc i was waiting for that hard bus to finally happen

this theatre is getting annoying and just taking up space

are u rdy for my readslist

RC: town
Dunnstral: town
Performer: Town
NSG: town
Carcasilly: town
Schadd_: Town

Wh4t: Implied town

Skygazer: scum
Eragon: scum

can u expln dunn town,
and me scum(or town, whichever you think :3)

hmm

do think i would actually come in scumreading the person who's scum-flip would put me at most likely scum here if we were scum together?

wynaut

11/10 song

like

{RC, NSG}
{Performer}
{Schadd_}
{Carcalilly}
{Dunn, Skygazer+}
{Eragon}

with wh4t as unplaced.

ookay.
but why am i scummy(or towny, howevere you feel)?

[Eragon]

Spoiler:

i guess I am kinda getting ahead of myself though I do have good feelings about what I've done so far

{RC, performer, NSG}

then team wise in the remainder

{Carca/Dunnstral}
{Carca/Eragon}
{Eragon/Dunnstral}
{Eragon/Gazer}
{Gazer/Dunnstral}
{Schadd/Gazer}

don't think I"m missing any high equity teams

but werent you SR'ing performer like... after the last time they posted?
what changed 0.0

so

Wh4t is scum 33% of the time
Carcalilly is scum 26% of the time
Schadd is scum 33% of the time.
Skygazer is scum 55% of the time
Dunnstral is scum 46% of the time
Eragon is scum 40% of the time

didnt you say wh4t is statistically unlikely to flip scum?

I'm curious if there's a really optimal way to lynch taht 6 that allows us to win against anything but 1/130 teams

ask mafia not to kill?

i'm sure there is if we get one more townclear but I'm trying to do it NOW!

:wave_ok:

0.2894736842
0.2236842105
0.2763157895
0.4736842105
0.3947368421
0.3421052632

same order

numbers.
brain.
eyes.
faint.
thoughts.
death.

if i can be scum with everyone then my flip provides little information either way

checkmate

but if you are scum...
that puts us at a 1v 6 and me likey those odds

still vibing that gazer/eragon more than anything else

y u thunk thet we temd up?

dunn's 'all in all' is giving me bad vibes but I can't actually search his post history to see if it's indicative because the search isn't working

thæn make it work
:hide:

plus my current biggest independent scumread is

eragon

and, y'know, highest equity and all

why am i your biggest SR.
also, you said sky has a higher scum equity tho...

Ok skimmed. Is it bad that I have no idea how this set-up works? Maths isn't my strong suit...:/

{NSG}
{RC}
{Performer, Carcalilly}
{Shadd}
{Eragon, Dunnstral}

VOTE: Eragon

Gg.

why do you SR me?
and now im waiting for skygazer to come in and tell him these are safe reads.

btw even if eragon is high chances I readtown and think we def should not Lynch them bc they're content is a+

also north sorry for being a shit but honestly I think your town and my feelings on this argument are so ambiguous and obscure I understand why you find it suspicious
But that doesn't mean I'll take it back

anyway stargazer should be town until proven guilty

*kung fu ninja moves*
Pocket denied

but... umm.... how do you prove someone guilty here

schaddad is still scummy and whatty needs to catch the heck up

agreed on wh4t
kinda disagree on schadd?

[Eragon]

VOTE: Dunnstral

read scum and fairly good equity on top of that

[RadiantCowbells]

People who say town until proven guilty essentially mean that if they don't scumread someone, no one else should be allowed to wagon them.

@wh4t, where's Skygazer on your readslist and why did you vote Eragon who I'm not voting?

[RadiantCowbells]

My carcalilly townread I'm somewhat uncertain of ftr

[RadiantCowbells]

Also what your readslist is my readist with skygazer nowhere to be found

[Performer]

I'm not sure if carc's interactions with me are genuine town because of that 1 newbie game ages ago, or...faked from a mafia role...sigh...
this is absolutely going to haunt me.

"I love that rc voted me"
"oh because I am buddying performer?"

Wth

lmao sorry

It's just that the only significant thing that happened between rcs opinion shift was my agreeing actions with you. But IDK rc what changed your mind

VOTE: Performer

ur gonna make me cri

and honestly this entire page is so ironic but it'd be hell to explain why

VOTE: carcalilly
Your thought process here varied from our first game onsite . It sounds like scum agenda (because "I am buddying performer?" and scum coasting with your random posting. I don't believe you're town here.

Also, still sr on him due to the first 2 pgs, but need to see more from Dunn.

And by that quote I mean, you were more concerned about someone's townread than the chance voting shenanigans, and I thought that was a bit disordered in priorities.

actual reads seem far more important to me than the percentages. wouldn't you agree?

so far my mind is telling me there is scum in (Dunn, Schadd, Sky), maybe even both if we are lucky.

My mind is also telling me that NSG and Performer are town, while RC, albeit a few quirks, is probably town as well

haven't gotten the chance to go through your wall yet but eragon how did you tr me by pg 5 so fast? No mention of carca - eragon are you familiar with carca?

[RadiantCowbells]

Sky is still rly scummy though

[Performer]

Am I the only one who thinks dunnformer r buddies

You always sr me....

there is no benefit of quicklynching

none

so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you

rc why don't you agree with me

yeah carca is likely town. Good to see we're town again!

this was a terrible townread

possible svs

it was an early tr of her, which changed due to posts and interactions
--------
@era - nvm my question, you already explained it in your wall I saw. It's a pain to read that much and makes it hard for me to sort you.

[RadiantCowbells]

0.2894736842 what
0.2236842105 carca
0.2763157895 schadd
0.4736842105 sky
0.3947368421 dunn
0.3421052632 era

same order

[Performer]

1. my success rate through smart-sheeping is better than my success rate when figuring out my own reads so actually i think ill actually just sheep from here on out

ur not voting with me

hm why is era town?

VOTE: performer

Just saw this during the catchup.

sky might not be town either

[Performer]

all this math talk between sky & rc , I'm not seeing the relevance of it
not sure how rc changed me from sr to tr either
need to see more from wh4t too

[Performer]

Never played with schad before but he seems to be sorting folks like sky, dunn; interacting with others like sky & rc to get reads. He doesn't seem to be scumreading rc and I.
Going to say schad is town here.

This could be rc's town game due to the way he's been reaction testing and how his reads list has been going. The thing I've noticed when I played with him in many past games , is it gets somewhat easier for me to ascertain his alignment in later phase after d1. Haven't seen enough to make me get an AI read on rc though, so null.

[Performer]

schaddad is still scummy and whatty needs to catch the heck up

but why is schad scum??

[northsidegal]

rc are you still scumreading performer

because i'm not seeing it

[northsidegal]

VOTE: eragon

[Carcalilly]

that tunneling rc tho
I envy u eragoo

I have my opinions and I am allowed to have them
b ut schadd is scummy cuz they're like not doing anything and I really don't like how their sentences are formulated in this game
Like thy feel so bland?

also I have no idea about the performer opinion but he's being quite informative so I have no plans to Lynch him

Also I like assuming everyone's town. At first. :3c

[Carcalilly]

north you maybe town but your votes kinda suck

[RadiantCowbells]

rc are you still scumreading performer

because i'm not seeing it

Did u even read my posting

[Carcalilly]

rc can you please tell me who scum is I promise I won't tell anyone else

[RadiantCowbells]

It's me and Wh4t

[Carcalilly]

okay

VOTE: radiantcowbells
VOTE: wh4t

[RadiantCowbells]

How did you get so GOOD at this game