Open 736: Diffusion of Power - Game Over

[Nicolas Cage]

I didn't save skitter so implosion is confirmed town. (barring some true shenanigans)

We can mislynch me tomorrow if absolutely necessary but last scum has to be in A50/cmod/N_M and I'm strongly leaning A50 here.

Skitter conftown, implosion conftown, M&M conftown -- that's a massive conftown block so this game is probably won even if we mislynch me tomorrow.

[Nicolas Cage]

I find the idea that scum no killed implausible

[Almost50]

Skitter conftown, implosion conftown, M&M conftown -- that's a massive conftown block so this game is probably won even if we mislynch me tomorrow.

From a purely mechanical PoV only skitter and M&M are

confirmed

. Theoretically, implosion could have no killed and decided to claim he protected skitter last night.

I repeat: I'm speaking from a

pure mechanical

PoV of a spectator. No reads, no gut feelings, and no personal info that's not publicly unconfirmed. I mean, I obviously have my own Role PM to exclude myself from all this, but I'm including me because from a 3rd party PoV I'm not 100% cleared still.

[Nicolas Cage]

I can't imagine a scenario where scum no kill when there's already a guilty on Spoog. Just look at our numbers lol. Last scum did a gambit in an earlier dayphase. A50's claim seems the most suspect to me so it's probably him.

[Almost50]

I can't imagine a scenario where scum no kill when there's already a guilty on Spoog. Just look at our numbers lol. Last scum did a gambit in an earlier dayphase. A50's claim seems the most suspect to me so it's probably him.

My claims always somehow get called suspect regardless. I mean, even in the off case you're town and someone is being "overly clever" I'd understand if you thought I was the top suspect. I don't suppose not being on either Town lynches and actually being on the scum lynches make a difference to you? Does me being on Spoogh yesterday affect that read? I couldn't have foresaw CMod picking the wrong wagon to hammer either, so that was scum!me making the game even harder for myself, trying to save the town an additional mislynch.

[teacher]

@mod shouldnt it be 5 to lynch with 8 alive?

Grazie.

[teacher]

VOTE COUNT 4.2 and Updates

Deadline:

Sunset

3:00am NYC on Saturday, October 27

, or

(expired on 2018-10-27 03:00:00)

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

Player	Vote Total	Vote Identity
Almost50	0
Music and Mail	0
Not_Mafia	0
CreativeMod1	0
implosion	0
Nicolas Cage	0
Spooghetioso	3	Nicolas Cage 2287; Skitter30 2303; Almost50 2305
Skitter30	0

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

None.

Mod Notes

• Skitter30 v/la Fridays and Saturdays generally

[implosion]

I do sort of want nick to claim before day end but -shrug- i'll vote if my whims whim me to

[Nicolas Cage]

n5 doc

[Nicolas Cage]

I have no bloody mechanical reads. All I have is tone and gut

I don't want to lynch: PP/M & M/Creature/Gamma/BuJ/N_M/implosion/Spoogheti/skitter

This leaves Carcalilly/CreativeMod/Lovebird for my D1 lynch pool.

That doesn't mean I TR all of those I don't want to lynch. I just feel that some can be sorted out later, and some can be valuable assets if town (so basically need Cop checks on as many of them as possible).

I also have nothing against the 3 I can lynch except I don't feel like they've been doing anything that helps me read them better.

Maybe let Lovebird live today too, as I think there are other players here capable of reading her?

Eh.. I've just checked the activity, and Carca has 48 posts already, yet I can't remember a single thing she said that makes me not want her out of this game.

Incredibly he does not vote Carca for another 500 game posts and another 50 iso posts.

@Creative:

01. Almost50 (Good as scum)
02. PenguinPower (not quite sure myself. @PP: Did I witness your scum game?)
03. Music and Mail (Great as scum)
04. Creature (bad as scum)
05. Gamma Emerald (moderate as scum)
06. BuJaber (Fairly good as scum)
07. Not_Mafia (most players can't tell)
08. CreativeMod1 (that's you. I don't know)
09. implosion (Fairly good as scum .. I think)
10. Lovebird (Good as scum)
11. Spooghetioso (No idea. He's new)
12. skitter30 (Good as scum)
13. Carcalilly (I personally don't know her )

That's my take on people here. Note that this only the rating of their SCUM game, which is what should concern you more. Like, for instance.. Creature is a Very Good TOWN player.

So, M & M (RC in particular) is a scary scumster to most of us, and we want to know if we can at least take his words and views as being honest and sincere. This is why most of us would be for a check there ASAP.

Carca's scum, we both know that, let's hit scum today and then reevaluate tomorrow.

That's fine by me.

VOTE: Carca

So, finally votes Carca after shading the slot for 500 posts. Meanwhile he sets up to mislynch my slot while continuing to distance his buddy and keep pressure on M&M.

VOTE: Nicolas Kim Copola

Unloading from the bus to get on to me when push comes to shove.

[Almost50]

@NC: Check my readlist/ See that bottom tier? Now check whom I was voting before I switched to Carca.

Frankly; I just copied and pasted my old read list and moved Gamma up, but totally forgot about that townslip of yours. That said, I won't put you at the very top for <reasons>.

Also, I am still ignoring that question you quoted. Capiche?

{Creature, Gamma}
{BuJaber, skitter}
{implosion, Cmod}
{Spooghetioso, M & M}<===neutral/null
{N_M}
{PP}
{LB, Carca}

And this the reason why I was voting there:

Carcalilly has been prodded.
Lovebird has appr six hours to pick up their prod.

I'm tunneling the LB slot if that gets replaced again. I can't see a town slot getting replaced twice in 72 hours at the start of the game. Maybe the first player flaked.. but what about the second one? Why would they replace in then decide not to play after they have picked their role PM and actually posted in the game thread?

It's official! teacher has just posted in the replacements thread looking for someone to fill in for LB.

VOTE: Lovebird

Now check this out. This is me voting Carca (at the request of RC)

VOTE COUNT 1.12 and Updates

Deadline:

Sunset

9:00pm NYC on Thursday, October 4

, or

(expired on 2018-10-04 21:00:00)

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

Player	Vote Total	Vote Identity
Almost50	1	Carcalilly 999
PenguinPower	3	Not_Mafia 76; Creature 799; Spooghetioso 977
Music and Mail	1	skitter30 480
Creature	0
Gamma Emerald	1	BuJaber 817
BuJaber	0
Not_Mafia	0
CreativeMod1	0
implosion	1	Gamma Emerald 621
Nicholas Cage	0
Spooghetioso	0
Skitter30	0
Carcalilly	5	Nicholas Cage 910; implosion 919; Music and Mail 1044; Almost50 1053; PenguinPower 1081

NOT VOTING:

CreativeMod1

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

none

Mod Notes

• Skitter30 v/la Fridays and Saturdays generally

And this is me still on Carca (notice the wagon is wearing out and RC himself isn't on her anymore?)

So, you saying I was "Unloading from the bus to get on to me when push comes to shove." is obviously a false statement. Carca wasn't going to get lynched at the time.

VOTE COUNT 1.13 and Updates

Deadline:

Sunset

9:00pm NYC on Thursday, October 4

, or

(expired on 2018-10-04 21:00:00)

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

Player	Vote Total	Vote Identity
Almost50	0
PenguinPower	3	Not_Mafia 76; Creature 799; Spooghetioso 977
Music and Mail	2	skitter30 480; implosion 1228
Creature	0
Gamma Emerald	1	BuJaber 817
BuJaber	0
Not_Mafia	0
CreativeMod1	0
implosion	1	Gamma Emerald 1275
Nicholas Cage	0
Spooghetioso	2	Carcalilly 1322; Music and Mail 1352
Skitter30	0
Carcalilly	3	Nicholas Cage 910; Almost50 1053; PenguinPower 1081

NOT VOTING:

CreativeMod1

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

several.

• Carcalilly unvoted in 1100
  
• Gamma Emerald voted Carcalilly in 1134
  
• Music and Mail unvoted in 1183
  
• Music and Mail voted implosion in 1191

Mod Notes

• BuJaber v/la through Sunday
  
• Skitter30 v/la Fridays and Saturdays generally
  
• CreativeMod1 will be prodded (#2) shortly following this post

Now this is me switching to other flipped scum (before I went back to you). This was -again- me sheeping RC.

Why would scum!me only sheep RC on SCUM, and oppose him on Town (Gamma, PP, implo)??

Weren't you already voting there? Or is this a hint for me to start sheeping already?

OK..

VOTE: Spooghetioso

Then after voting CMod (because he refused to check RC at the time) here I'm back on Spoogh once more

i also vibe spooghettioso/skitter interactions as having high probability of being SvS which is why I've been pushing for that lynch so much.

VOTE: Spooghetsio

I can sheep you on this one today. No problem.

Then I went back to you bc you had a wagon going on, while Carca/Spoogh didn't

VOTE COUNT 1.15 and Updates

Deadline:

Sunset

9:00pm NYC on Thursday, October 4

, or

(expired on 2018-10-04 21:00:00)

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

Player	Vote Total	Vote Identity
Almost50	0
PenguinPower	4	Not_Mafia 76; Creature 799; Spooghetioso 977; Nicholas Cage 1543
Music and Mail	1	skitter30 480
Creature	0
Gamma Emerald	0
BuJaber	0
Not_Mafia	0
CreativeMod1	0
implosion	0
Nicholas Cage	5	PenguinPower 1561; Music and Mail 1586; implosion 1594; Almost50 1595; BuJaber 1596
Spooghetioso	0
Skitter30	1	Gamma Emerald 1578
Carcalilly	0

NOT VOTING:

Carcalilly 1623; CreativeMod1

Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above

none.

Mod Notes

• Skitter30 v/la Fridays and Saturdays generally
  
• BuJaber v/la through Sunday
  
• PenguinPower v/la through Monday

And I held my ground till the day ended, while all 3 of you (You+Carca+Spoogh) voted PP to get the pressure off YOU.

You see, it is obvious from the VCA that PP was your CW. TWO CONFIRMED SCUMS already show on him raher than you (if you were both Town then the usual distribution is one on each wagon and one on a vnity wagon or not voting)

Then at the start of D:

OK i can run with that. that's strictly worse than checking me because I'm 100% sure that I'd have figured out that skitter was town if she stopped calling me scum every ten seconds but
here's my big question to everyone in the game. I think NM is town, like, most of the time-ish. enough that I'm fine mostly leaving them out of discussion and then just lynching them if the big 4 fails

If I'm right on {Gamma/Implo/Carca/NC} who is the town in that pool?

Replace Gamma with Spoogh and we've got identical lynch pools

So, it's OBVIOUS that I was defending Gamma all the way since he towntold for me (his response to my test), and it's even more obvious I had SRs on you, Carca AND Spoogh since D1.

I'm going to stop now because this getting toooooo long (perhaps I should spoiler it?)

[Not_Mafia]

Well

[Spooghetioso]

[RadiantCowbells]

Implo could super easily have decided to no kill to prove himself

Don't you dare give that any town equity qhataoevwr

[Music and Mail]

I checked rc last night and was informed he's town

Im pretty sure its just nc and was going to check him but i was weighing how annoyed i'd be if rc was actually scum and i didnt check him when i had the oppurtunity to do so

Im guessing i got docced last night, thanks; i wasnt entirely sure i was going to last long enough to use the cop shot.

I agree that if you're a doc who docced me you shouldnt claim, but if you docced anyone else and it could be clearing you should

If you ever say that any read you have on me puts me above (average equity +5%) I'm going to vote you in future games

Remaining lynches are NC Implosion Spooghetrioso no substitutions.

[Music and Mail]

Im pretty sure its just nc and was going to check him but i was weighing how annoyed i'd be if rc was actually scum and i didnt check him when i had the oppurtunity to do so

This attitude is so fucking garbage

Why does this apply to me and not others?

Like why is losing to me so much bigger of a deal than anyone else

[Music and Mail]

If Implo wants a50 Lynch he gets it over nc not himself

[Music and Mail]

Like I'm fucking hard spewed town beyond any shadow of a doubt by my carca interactions in a daytalkless game and I was still having to fight all game


It's tilting and it makes my reads end up bad

[implosion]

I still thought you were a pretty solid candidate for scum after gamma flipped town. Still thought that nick was more likely, but beyond reads it really just should have been obvious that gamma had no motivation as scum in that situation whatsoever to fake claim that particular result. I said that and stand by that it should have been pretty clear, and I think that gives gamma’s wagon quite a bit of a scummy tinge. Which is sad since there were so many town on it. But that’s not important now.

And you’re somewhat wrong about saying I should get no town equity whatsoever for the doc save claim, for a few reasons.

One, I crumbed my role. So long as you believe the crumb, then to believe that I am scum you have to believe that I happened to crumb something that actually would have wound up being critical.

Two, there is explicit negative utility for me to do this as scum; if I were scum I would know that either nick or skitter is a doctor, and if that doctor was nick and he wound up getting an extra save eventually then town would get an extra mislynch.

Three, I did it after you were cop cleared; if I were scum I would sure as hell know that you would dismiss it instantly.

[Music and Mail]

VOTE: implosion

Best lynch today, and he can determine the lynch tomorrow as conftown.

[Music and Mail]

I still thought you were a pretty solid candidate for scum after gamma flipped town.

Let's be clear
Anyone who thought I had

any

chance of being scum with my Skitter interactions as they were has bad reads or is scum.
I think implosion ought to be better than this. Skitter agreed but I don't necessarily think she ought to be better than this given her results in this/last game.

[Music and Mail]

I'm not okay with me dying and y'all letting implo walk to endgame
I'm conftown now sheep me tyty

[Almost50]

I'm not okay with me dying and y'all letting implo walk to endgame
I'm conftown now sheep me tyty

Don't dare repeat yesterday's mistake. I warned you against lynching Gamma and you didn't listen. We lynch the guilty today and we lynch NC tomorrow and IF the game isn't over (5% a chance or less IMHO) then I will follow the majority, but that's really a bridge we cross when we come to it.

[implosion]

I still thought you were a pretty solid candidate for scum after gamma flipped town.

Let's be clear
Anyone who thought I had

any

chance of being scum with my Skitter interactions as they were has bad reads or is scum.
I think implosion ought to be better than this. Skitter agreed but I don't necessarily think she ought to be better than this given her results in this/last game.

anyone who thinks i have any chance of being scum with *my* skitter interactions as they were has bad reads or is scum as well.

actually fuck off.

[CreativeMod1]

Okay so just to check a count on things
Doc:PP(?)/Creature(?)/A50(1)/NC(5)/RC(1)/Implosion(3)
Cop: BJ(?)/Gamma(2)/CM(1)/Skitter(3)/NM(1)
Maf:Carca(cop)/Spoog(doc) (claims)

100% Clear:Skitter/RC

Out of everything, NC does stand out a bit

Given the 2 claims from mafs, it would suggest we're in a 5-5 game, mafia going for skitter last night would make sense, expecting there to be no docs left so I'm quite happy for the implosion claim

If implosion is the mafia then we're in a 5-5, they would know that only 1 doc and 1 cop is left unclaimed, they wouldn't know if a doc has used their power yet, I think it'd be a stupid risk to try and kill within the unclaimed as the cop could've tried to check him during the night

I previously suspected A50, but they've now gone more towards town for me, for 2 reasons, 1) If A50 was the mafia, then we'd be in a 5-5 game, when I was asking about previous games with whether we should take conf!scum claims into account he said this:

So with Carca claiming Cop, chances are we probably have 5 cops max

Also, this was my reason behind not wanting to hammer onto Spoog quite yet, if spoog flips mafia then their claim of doc could mean that we are in a 5-5 game?

Yes to both, bar some bad play by Mafia (or some

good

play sacrificing oneself for the survival of another).

Like, if we had 6 Doctors and 4 Cops and then we massclaimed on D1 (say, just for the sake of argument) then 2 scums will safely claim Cop. The 2rd claiming Cop also makes us lynch in Cops first. However, the third claiming Doc makes us lynch in the Doctors first and leave the Cops alone.

If A50 was scum then I feel he would've wanted his answer to be a bit more vague

The other thing that makes me think of A50 as being town is there being 2 N1 docs and 2 N1 cops...that kinda fits, I dunno exactly how the game gets set-up whether its 100% random or if roles are selected but yeah

If NM was scum, then we'd be in a 6-4, I doubt mafia would bus mafia on Day 2 if they knew that there was a low cop count

So forgetting confirmed town/scum my reads are

Town
NM
Implosion
A50
NC
Scum