Micro 831: Great Idea Mafia (Game Over)

[Rob14]

Vote Count #3.1:

Not Voting:

Micc, Bicephalous Bob, Simeon, davesaz

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-11-24 07:30:00)

[Simeon]

Why do you want to vote micc, simeon?

Simply because I townread dave more than micc

[Simeon]

shouldn't use it unless you make me

also, I got fruit, I forgot

Confirm I sent you fruit

[Simeon]

I think we should stump Bob anyway just go be safe, before deciding on a final lynch.

Unless there are disadvantages to this?

[davesaz]

I was hoping for him to elaborate on the effects stumping has on town strategy at this point.

[Rob14]

Micc has been prodded.

[Bicephalous Bob]

I was hoping for him to elaborate on the effects stumping has on town strategy at this point.

I know I'm town, so I'm not going to give any arguments in favor of stumping. From my point of view, there are only risks: the last scum may be a 1-shot dayvig or 1-shot unlynchable.

[Micc]

Sorry guys. I’m traveling this weekend and have spent most of my free time this week getting ready. Sitting down to look things over now. My instincts say that the tree stump claim indicates bob is Town and that this is between Simeon and davesaz.

[Micc]

So first things first I think we refrain from having Bob treestump today, and we do lynch. If there's disagreement with that I'm willing to argue my opinion but otherwise its trivial.

The 30 minute reread has me leaning towards davesaz being scum. His involvement on both the tazaro and maruchan wagons was basically "I think this person is scum and the wagon has support so I'll vote there". Simeon's involvement has been stronger as much of his interactions are him actively engaging people in order to form reads. davesaz actually just straight up ignored my attempt to engage him regarding kittenlicks in post 294 in favor of hammering maruchan to end the day. I didn't realize it until reading back.

I targeted simeon last night so baring unusual circumstances he's not a serial killer. I'm not exactly sure I'm ready to write off Bob as being town with his claim being the biggest reason cause that should really be NAI, but it's where I'm at.

Why do you want to vote micc, simeon?

Simply because I townread dave more than micc

I don't think this opinion is meaningful without you giving reasons for town reading davesaz.

[Micc]

I know it's not anyone here's fault but letting the consensus town read hammer the claimed supersaint was terrible and we're paying for it now.

[Simeon]

I targeted simeon last night so baring unusual circumstances he's not a serial killer.

I'm confirmed fruit vendor why did you even do this lols

[Simeon]

somebody say something

Hey bob, who's scum?

[davesaz]

That’s just crazy.

Pedit was just getting to it lol

[davesaz]

@MOD: Hypothetically if there were a treestump would stumping reset the deadline?

This is something we have to know. If the answer is no then we could get into lylo with no time left.

Micc target is horrible! Either alternative is better.
Simeon can be scum and fruit vendor but not sk.
Bob claim could be fake, and there is a scum stump.
My claim could be fake and there is a scum lover card.
I can’t imagine an experienced player making that targeting mistake.
OTOH why would an experienced player admit to it?
Wifom?

Town stump can turn mylo into lylo and continue to speak to help town so Bob’s answer is slightly fishy too.

[Bicephalous Bob]

somebody say something

Hey bob, who's scum?

I will get back to you on this.

From my point of view, there are only risks: the last scum may be a 1-shot dayvig or 1-shot unlynchable.

Dave, what about this doesn't make sense to you?

[Rob14]

@MOD: Hypothetically if there were a treestump would stumping reset the deadline?

If a treestump existed in the setup, stumping would not reset the deadline. Extensions may be made if the stumping occurred very close to deadline at mod discretion. It would reset the vote count.

[davesaz]

From my point of view, there are only risks: the last scum may be a 1-shot dayvig or 1-shot unlynchable.

Dave, what about this doesn't make sense to you?

Yes those are risks. What I felt was missing was the complete analysis. Is there a win% benefit with the risks taken into account, or is it net negative regardless?
Is there a benefit to no-lynch here? I see an obvious downside that we could have alien+some faction and it's really LYLO, but other than that?
<Two factions with more than one NK each doesn't seem likely for the obvious reason that there haven't been 2 kills, but alien holding out to shoot groupscum and win is a possibility>

[Bicephalous Bob]

If I am not in danger of being lynched, what should be the upsides of stumping from my point of view?

[Rob14]

Just as a heads up: While he didn't explicitly announce it in-thread, I'm treating Micc as V/LA until Monday because he mentioned he was traveling this weekend.

[davesaz]

If I am not in danger of being lynched, what should be the upsides of stumping from my point of view?

I already said what I think. I'm not sure it's an upside -- it might be a downside or it might not matter at all. My issue is that you didn't say anything either way regarding the outcomes (yes you mentioned risks but that's not the same), which makes me think you aren't thinking about the possible outcomes, which could mean you already know...

Right now my top scum candidate is Micc. He should have targeted me as top priority, especially if he thinks I'm scum.

[Micc]

I targeted simeon last night so baring unusual circumstances he's not a serial killer.

I'm confirmed fruit vendor why did you even do this lols

Yeah not a great choice in hindsight. I feel pretty stupid.

[Micc]

Just as a heads up: While he didn't explicitly announce it in-thread, I'm treating Micc as V/LA until Monday because he mentioned he was traveling this weekend.

Thanks for this. I didn’t really plan to go mia for the weekend but my phone was dead all day Saturday and today was pretty busy.

[Micc]

Right now my top scum candidate is Micc. He should have targeted me as top priority, especially if he thinks I'm scum.

While I agree that my night action choice was horrendous, I’m not following why you think it makes me scum.

[davesaz]

@MOD: Can a player with a kill and another night action perform both the same night?

[Rob14]

@MOD: Can a player with a kill and another night action perform both the same night?

In such a hypothetical situation, yes.