[Game Over] Newbie 1900 - Robocalypse


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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:10 pm

Post by Auro »

volxen (L-3)
: Flavor Leaf, Auro
Flavor Leaf (L-3)
: Ariane, volxen
Auro (L-4)
: snowbeast
Lamees (L-4)
: Not_Mafia
Ariane (L-4)
: YurikoJasmine
lionheart1492, Lamees
I'd like a reads list from the rest, too.
Especially your thoughts on Volxen.
If anyone thinks the case on Volxen is not worth voting him, state it.


The other lynch I'd be happy with is Snowbeast.
I wouldn't want to lose town!Volxen so early in the game.
Last edited by MiniDeathStar on Fri Nov 23, 2018 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:44 pm

Post by snowbeast »

Would I be correct in saying of the two wagons, more than likely one is on a scum and one is on a townie as it's two different batches of people?
I am in a higher state of confusion. this game is really intense with the swinging of votes etc.
If I was scum I would vote for the other scum and maybe pull out right at the end so not to look like I'm siding with them and if it's going to be a certain lynch I would be the hammer to look like a townie.
That second part is where I am confused the most. They amongst us
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:51 pm

Post by Auro »

@Snowbeast: Wagon analysis isn't really reliable isolated.
I think, and a couple others think that my own wagon is scum-motivated. (Aggressive player, blah blah)
From Flavor Leaf's POV, he's town, therefore players who voted for him AND me could likely contain scum.

You're describing bussing, an often used strategy between scum. It's not necessary that scum does that.
Keep wagon analysis aside, look at the cases each of us is making, and evaluate them on how much you agree/disagree.
If something stands out as scummy, point it out.

Look at mine and Flavor Leaf's posts on Volxen, as a start point. What do you think of them? Do you think/feel it's incorrect?
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Thu Nov 22, 2018 11:45 pm

Post by Lamees »

I hope the newly subbed in player is able to catch up and provide a fresh perspective.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:09 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

Why is lamees not being lynched?
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:15 am

Post by Auro »

Because she's my targeted mislynch for D2
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:18 am

Post by Auro »

In post 409, Flavor Leaf wrote:Lamees could be doing it as scum, sure, but at the moment, I don’t have any reason to believe so, and I can see genuine townie reactions in her posts. If enough actions happen that shows otherwise, then yeah, get on her.
Also Ariane hasn't really found enough reason to vote her, and both of them have played games with her before I think. FL with scum Lamees.

I'm half-inclined to actually just vote for her instead, but I'm not perfectly sure. Like she posts that way as town, but she seems very agenda driven this game, IDK. :roll:
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:19 am

Post by Auro »

In post 429, Not_Mafia wrote:Why is lamees not being lynched?

Don't you think Volxen's a good lynch?
I mean he's been deeply tunneled on me throughout the game, didn't bother much to scumhunt elsewhere, loads of fluff-posts, unnatural vote progression to Flavor Leaf, etc.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:37 am

Post by Lamees »

Why is not_mafia not being lynched? "Met" isn't really the right excuse for his scum play this game.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:38 am

Post by Lamees »

"Meta" not "met"
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:43 am

Post by Auro »

Neither is it for yours, but we're not lynching you either ATM, are we?
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:48 am

Post by Lamees »

He's scum I'm town. There's a difference.
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:50 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

In post 436, Lamees wrote:He's scum I'm town. There's a difference.
You got your pronouns the wrong way round
Also, what is Not_Mafia doing? This is some of the worst play I’ve ever seen.
I will SEARCH for games with you and N_M to help you policy him.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Auro »

Not_Mafia is town, the fact that he didn't quickhammer me and called out the scum-motivation on it, coupled with the greater-than-zero amount of gamesolving so far makes him town. :P

Could also be NewbieGame!NM but whatever, town to me.
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:29 am

Post by lionheart1492 »

In post 436, Lamees wrote:He's scum I'm town. There's a difference.
Lamees is a null read for me because on the one hand why the fuck would she say this as scum but on the other hand why the fuck would she say this as town. That's how I feel about a good portion of the posts. Also voting nm when pretty much everyone else has stated they don't want that lynch at this point is just bad. We need to get a lynch together soon and day 1 scumread on someone who hasn't done that much just isn't a townie hill to die on. Lamees, do you believe that you have successfully found the scumteam and it is auro+nm?

Anyway, I'm pretty much back but I fell behind reads wise over the last few days because I was mainly keeping up with the thread and not giving it much thought. It looks like the most likely lynch is volxen at this time so I'lll get more of a look at the FL and auro cases and his responses.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

In post 366, Ariane wrote:I'm also liking Volx's posts more than I was.
Why? Literally all he did was deflect and wait to pick a stance. How is that you liking it more?
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:44 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

I’m wanting to lynch within Volxen and Ariana.

Ariana’s talking of Volxen directly made it so she wants Volxen vs FL to continue, and chose Volxenms side despite Volxen having rather weak yet fluffy filled posts.
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:45 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

I have reason to believe Auro, Lamees, and even NM to an extent are town.

Auro, I’m not touching.

Lion heart, while I believe to be town, could be pulling our chain, but I like a lot of what he’s done. Him defending me against Ariana a couple pages ago also looks townie to me.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:47 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

NM has been super trollolololy as scum and town alike, so this is NewbieGame NM, however, he’s done some townie things that doesn’t make sense as scum imo, like unvoting me without question earlier. He made a definitive statement on a wagon that as scum, would have benefited him greatly.
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:50 am

Post by volxen »

In post 424, Auro wrote:No other defense? Volxen, give us a detailed reads list.
At the moment my sorting of everyone is:

Town: {Lion, Ariane}
Null: {Lamees, Not_Mafia, Snowbeast, Performer/Yuriko}
Scum: {Flavor Leaf, Auro}
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:53 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Also note Volxen’s scum reads are literally just the two biggest scum reads this game, and not to mention one of the biggest 1v1’s earlier.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:53 am

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Those are political looking reads.
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:06 am

Post by volxen »

@Auro, you seem to be convinced that scum was on your L-1 wagon. If you are town, you already know my stance is that I would agree that this is likely -- it is unlikely for any townie to get up to L-1 without scum involvement, and I still say this in spite of the fact that it happened to me on day one of Newbie 1893. What I'm not understanding is, if you are convinced of this, then why haven't you taken a more critical look at the buildup of your wagon:

I placed an RVS vote for you on 11/14/18 at 10:20 P.M. PST in post :
In post 28, volxen wrote:
In post 20, Auro wrote:

I had always been bothered by the rumours that a few early M.A.F.I.A prototypes had been released into the populace. Word was that it was *very* hard to distinguish them from a normal human -- an ever so slight thirst to annihilate the rest and conquer. Maybe the manufacturers changed that for the robots they released? No one knows.

One thing always bothered me, though. What if I was one of them? What if I wasn't born a simple, free, human; but a bloodthirsty robot who lacked any true identity? This single thought had always taken a backseat in my mind. It increasingly began to have a greater effect on my daily life, leading to an eventual obsession. I could not invest my energies in anything else, and lost everything I had.

When I was offered a chance to 'volunteer' for the experiment, I was told that I would know my identity -- whether I was human, or a bot --- before the experiment started. Apparently RandomAccess, one of the volunteers, had failed to read his instruction card (a malfunctioning robot or an unwilling human, there was no point keeping him) and I replaced him instead.

Miss Star repeated the instructions for me, and guided me to the glass room. I saw that most others had taken their cards from the tesseract table, and proceeded to take my own and read it.

I breathed a sigh of relief. I finally knew what I was. Or to be more precise, who I am.
And then it hit me that if I did not find out which ones were the M.A.F.I.A, I'd... probably die anyway.

I had a good, hard look around the room. I recognized a few of the volunteers - Lamees, Volxen, and Not_Mafia, from before. Volxen's avatar looked like what they called a "Transformer" to me. A sentient robot. It seemed obvious what my starting point should be.


VOTE: Volxen
The tone of this post is fairly robotic. Seems more likely to come from robot!Auro than human!Auro.

VOTE: Auro
Then
six days later
, Flavor Leaf and Lamees vote you back-to-back in rapid succession. First Flavor Leaf voted for you on 11/20/18 at 11:19 A.M. PST in post :
In post 166, Flavor Leaf wrote:NM is the easier wagon based on playstyle, and I could have targeted people who jumped on for jumping on him for NAI reasons.

VOTE: Auro

More likely scum than Ariana. Auro’s sheep was opportunistic.
Less than 1.5 hours later after Flavor Leaf voted for you, Lamees voted for you on 11/20/18 at 12:47 P.M. PST in post :
In post 205, Lamees wrote:VOTE: auro

Yeah yeah I know, opportunistic. I mean, we need 5 votes so of course any vote after the first or second one is now gonna get called opportunistic as a defense mechanism and because it's the in-word. Good luck getting 5 votes without being called opportunistic though lol.

I just don't think auro has taken this vote pressure from FL well. He is kinda flailing imo, he was all about votes for pressure but when it's on him the pressure was a bit too much. Pair that with the feeling I have that he has been prodding me all game in hopes I say something scummy for him to latch onto. High chance we got scum here. Also I really dont mind auro vs lamees too. So we can do that. By all means vote me if you think I'm scum.
And a little bit over 18 hours after Lamees voted for you, Snowbeast hopped onto to your wagon and put you at L-1 on 11/21/18 at 7:05 A.M. PST in post :
In post 285, snowbeast wrote:UNVOTE: not mafia

VOTE: auro
So my vote is on you for six days before the next person votes for you (Flavor Leaf). After that, Flavor Leaf and Lamees vote you back-to-back within less than 1.5 hours of each other, and all three of Flavor Leaf, Lamees, and Snowbeast voted for you within a 20 hour window that started six days after my vote for you was placed. Flavor Leaf is arguing that the only possible explanation for all of this is that I am scum. Do you really believe that to be the case: that the only possible explanation for the build up of your wagon is that scum!me started it, and three different townies all flocked to your wagon six days later within a 20 hour window (two of them within a 1.5 hour window)?

If you put so much stock in doing VCA on your wagon as you appear to be, then I'm not understanding why you haven't done this type of analysis on your own wagon. This VCA is of limited value to me because I don't know your alignment, but you do. If you are scum then your wagon being all-town is very likely; if you are town it is very unlikely.

Either you believe that doing VCA on a day 1 L-1 wagon is worthwhile or you don't. This is your wagon, and you are by far in the best position to do VCA on it if you are town. But you haven't really talked about your wagon beyond reminding us that it was {Volxen, Flavor Leaf, Lamees, Snowbeast}. But why haven't you looked beyond that and taken a look at the actual buildup of your wagon? That's equally important to looking at the wagon composition itself.
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:15 am

Post by Auro »

I'm not townreading anyone on my wagon.
What you say is correct, BUT - your vote was still on me through the buildup to L-1, even when you found FL doing things that weren't pinging you right.
I also don't necessarily believe there was only one scum on my wagon. Lamees' "full responsibility" schtick might even be because she didn't want the other to be lynched for it.

I'm scumreading you for reasons independent of my VCA; VCA only supports it. You're not defending yourself from that case, just throwing more fluff my way. I've already stated why Flavor Leaf isn't my favorite lunch (whatevz) today, also Lamees I'm unsure of. Snowbeast is also an option for me, as I've stated -- you simply have a lot more scum equity anyway.

I'm open to revising my stance if you give a proper defence. So far, you haven't - just deflecting, as Flavor pointed out.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:16 am

Post by Lamees »

The problem is that our info from the wagon is thrown out the window now since we have to base it on two assumptions, 1, auro is town, 2, the wagon contained scum. We cannot proceed to do the analysis since he wasn't flipped.

Anyways:

Strong town lean - snowbeast
Sort of town lean - ariane, lion
Null - volx, FL, performer
Sort of scum lean - auro
Strong scum lean - not_mafia

With the day running out I am willing to hammer null reads if they manage to get to L-1 since people are scared to hammer. But it doesnt look like we'll even get to L-1 lol
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