Micro 831: Great Idea Mafia (Game Over)

[davesaz]

We're back to the same place deadline wise. Someone wanna talk?

[Persivul]

I don't have more to say until Micc and Bulb post.

Looks pretty likely to go to a no lynch.

[Rob14]

Vote Count #3.3:

Micc:

Persivul (1)

davesaz:

Micc (1)

Not Voting:

Bulbazoor, davesaz

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-11-26 07:30:00)

[Micc]

I’m traveling home now. Will post when I get back

[Rob14]

Bulbazoor has been prodded.

[Micc]

We're back to the same place deadline wise. Someone wanna talk?

It’s time for you to put a vote down tbh. I don’t know if that was supposed to be a case for why you intend to vote bulbazoor or if you’re still waffling between me and him. I’ll go through and offer my thoughts on the things you pulled out in a sec but the tldr is that I’m not convinced.

I don’t intend to move my vote here which I guess means we’re no lynching?

[Micc]

Micc, saying that I'm not engaging you is a lie. You may not like the answers I'm giving, but we are having conversations. I'm the type of person who stops talking when I don't see anything new to add, maybe that bothers you? If you're "not satisfied" you could be a little more open about what you're not satisfied with.
This is not the point in the game where an OMGUS is acceptable. Pushing you on bad night actions is a sign of town, not scum.

I guess my problem is that you don't have anything new to add then. We can have all the conversations in the world but if you're not willing to put you're foot down and state what you believe to be true it doesn't mean any thing to me. All the while you think the conversations are over and was meaningful.

I don't know if you're pushing me for scum or if all these posts pushing simeon mean you're pushing him. You didn't make a vote but also didn't specifically ask anyone to comment the push. We got a two day extension and are once again up against the deadline. It's time for you to vote.

But I don't want to put words in your mouth. Can you honestly say that you look at my posts and you don't think I'm solving? If you go beyond being wrong on a few things (and several/most of us have been wrong on something), point to something that's illogical or manipulative. Please do. And if you can't, please admit you can't.

I don't think you're solving. Sure you've looked at the game, you've pulled stuff out, you've said stuff, but you haven't translated that into a solution. You weren't even willing to commit to Bob's slot being town. You're not looking for a solution, you were biding time until you could hammer my wagon for the win and now that bulba's afk you're testing the waters to see if that's a viable path to victory.

Spoiler:

One-liner percentage might be off a bit. I'll do this in batches of posts which have "content".

Didnt read the past 10 posts but mic is being opportunistic on page 2

How do ya even skip 10 measly posts?

Because it was nearly 1am and I was in bed and falling asleep and had to be up at 5 am for work. Will read when I have time

Oh cool. You read page 2, determine there that he was being opportunistic, ignore the rest, and then post.

This looks bad tbh

Page 3 nitpicking, and I'm generally against the practice of ignoring RL issues.

Tazaro has been dull so far. It feels like he's just posting to look town.

Like his posts are mostly comments and don't really stick to anything.

This does express a read, but remember the setup has high multiball probability so at this point in the game scum!anyone would be hunting. Notice though, it's stated very vaguely.

UNVOTE: Maruchan

@Maruchan what do you think of Micc's post 69?

VOTE: Tazaro

X, what do you think of Y, vote Z is a pattern that seems more scum than town to me. Additionally, it's an unvote without a stated reason. I'd need to look at context to see if there is an unstated one.

BTW, lest you try to claim anything about why I'm active now -- I'm not prepping food / running all over town / doing door buster shopping today.

*Not going to spend more time than necessary formatting here. Each of my sections is a response to each of your sections*
I don't think one-liner percentage is a viable scum hunting tool. Plenty of players are consistently successful with that type of posting style regardless of alignment.

What you call page 3 nitpicking is what Maruchan called being opportunistic on page two. I think they are both examples of early scumhunting.

Yup that's a read. You can call it vague, but I think it's more direct than the reads you've given at this stage.

You're welcome to think that pattern is more likely as scum than town, but without giving your reasoning and without you being willing go back and look at the context this means nothing to me.

I'm not in a place to complain about anyone's activity (except maybe bulbazoor) with how I've played this game so don't worry about that.

*gunna break this post up here and come back with responses to the rest in a sec*

[Micc]

Spoiler:

Tazaro has been dull so far. It feels like he's just posting to look town.

Like his posts are mostly comments and don't really stick to anything.

I am a one liner kind of guy; and this is like a preemptive criticism^ of me before switching off from who U were briefly "sticking" to before (maruchan) and then sticking to me for who knows what length of stint.
Stint away, but make good cases justifying Urself before you end up switching off and on.

Terrible post.

You do understand that Maruchan posted before i switched my vote to you?

I'm not voting you because you're a one liner kind of guy, I'm voting you because your one liners don't really look like they were made to help you sort who's town or who's scum. It look like they were made just to say something.

This one's kinda towny but it isn't material that is hard to fake. Plus the target is rather low hanging fruit, it isn't like anyone had to work especially hard for that scumread.

If you help me lynch him now and he flips red, I don't have to wonder if you're bussing.

Do you think I'm scum?

I have not done a meta dive, but I have noticed a lot of scum in general like to ask who is scumreading them. The post itself isn't game advancing.

gamma purposefully talking in riddles is also rather annoying.

I think Gamma's posts have been clear so far tbh

Information, no analysis. (I had the exact same thought, but don't remember thinking it was worth a post. If I did post I would expect I said it's NAI. I don't feel like opening another tab to check lol)

@Kitten no thoughts on me?

Again, scum ask this way more than town IMO.

Finally

@shortaru there is now support for the Tazaro wagon lols. Will you join?

Kinda manipulative, yet leaving it vague, not pressing a case at all.

Your comment on post 111 is a another good example of you not actually pursuing a solution. You make a read, but go back on it, and then never come to a solution. This is all white noise to me.

Your response to 114 and 157 need some more support for why you think they are viable tells because I'm strongly NAI on both. 141 is irronic because I don't know why you bothered to comment on the post that you're wondering why simeon bothered to comment on.

183 isn't manipulative. It's townblocking at it's finest. Asking mutual townreads to vote with you is just good play.

Spoiler:

because day 1 was a bucket full of null, and I needed a name, and the only person I felt had done anything of note was Micc pushing a policy on a role, so i investigated him

wtf. Shouldn't you have checked the ones not on the Tazaro wagon? since Tazaro flipped wolf?

Multi ball. Wagon analysis is useless this game buddy

Really? Multi ball doesn't mean you always wagon your partner, right?

multi ball means there might not BE any partners. We could have 3 1 man scum teams.

mafia/werewolf/replecant/alien/serial killer/cult.

How would knowing who lynched the werewolf matter if there is only one werewolf and there is also an alien and a mafia? by VCA reasoning the alien and the mafia could appear perfectly towny, and lynch the werewolf with the town, thinking he was town.

VCA is useless in great/er/est/grand idea

You're confusing the issue. You say you are a SEER. It's supposed to be your job then to look for another werewolf.

Other alignments don't matter right now let's ignore them for a bit.

It is true that town have no ideas on the scumteams, town could possibly be against a one man werewolf team and other non town-aligned roles, but your role as a seer is to look for another werewolf.

so I'm asking why did you investigate the guy who voted out the werewolf yesterday?

This is a good point, and it was a major contributing factor to my (incorrect) Maru scumread.
Picking on an obvious blunder isn't AI. Town and competing scum both have an interest in eliminating someone whose claim doesn't check out.

Spoiler: for micc

Yes I'm aware that that last sentence applies to me picking on your NA blunder.[.spoiler]

Again I'm left wondering why you felt the need to comment on this and what conclusion you reached from it.

Spoiler:

Kind of agree with Micc tbh. I badly want to vote somewhere else but Maru is the only one pinging me bad

VOTE: Maru

The timing of this vote

may

be important. Simeon made a very good case for Maru scum, then may have waited to see if someone else would vote there first. I don't see any evidence of Simeon scumreading anyone else, other than perhaps Micc. If he badly wanted to vote somewhere else, it almost has to be Micc he wanted to vote for. Why wouldn't town pursue that if they're getting cold feet on the presumptive lynch for the day? Scum might want to avoid annoying their MYLO/LYLO target prematurely.

Maruchan: Micc, Bicephalous Bob, Simeon, davesaz (4)

On my previous site we had the "3rd on the wagon" tell. I don't actually agree with that being accurate, but the guy who tried to make a strong case waited to vote it until the vote created a L-1.

396 is fine although I think it's more likely that simeon felt as I did. Maruchan was his biggest scum read, but he wasn't very sure about it. You not believing in the tell you're bringing up is pretty par for the course tho.

[davesaz]

That's progress. You're most likely town because if you were scum it would not matter to you if you mislynched me or someone else.
The point was to find someone who made at least one clearly town decision. If you're eliminated the decision becomes easy for me.

Now we have Persivul/Bob or Bulbazoor/Simeon. I've already made my case.

VOTE: Bulbazoor

It's probably still going to be a no-lynch. I almost hope I'm the NK just to rub the flip in your face.

[Micc]

The point was to find someone who made at least one clearly town decision. If you're eliminated the decision becomes easy for me.

the point of what exactly? You've ruled me out now>

I'm not following at all.

[Persivul]

That's progress. You're most likely town because if you were scum it would not matter to you if you mislynched me or someone else.

Yeah, I was waiting to see if Micc moved to Simeon/Bulb when he came back. If he's not town, he's pretty sly scum.

[Micc]

now turn that thought around and ask yourself who

has

been open to lynching just anybody today...

[Persivul]

now turn that thought around and ask yourself who

has

been open to lynching just anybody today...

Uh...who?

[Micc]

davesaz

[Persivul]

And also:

UNVOTE:

[Persivul]

davesaz

You mean the guy who DIDN'T join me in voting you?

[Micc]

davesaz

You mean the guy who DIDN'T join me in voting you?

He sure wanted to. notice how he changed direction once bulba expressed having a mild town read on me?

[davesaz]

Who is town, and why?

[Persivul]

davesaz

You mean the guy who DIDN'T join me in voting you?

He sure wanted to. notice how he changed direction once bulba expressed having a mild town read on me?

What posts?

[Persivul]

Checked dave's ISO again, I don't see that you can reasonably conclude that he sure wanted to vote you. He complained that you chose a bad night action target. That's about it.

[Persivul]

And you agreed it was a bad choice.

[Micc]

Checked dave's ISO again, I don't see that you can reasonably conclude that he sure wanted to vote you. He complained that you chose a bad night action target. That's about it.

That's part of the problem tho. He doesn't come out and explicitly say I'm his lynch target, but he's clearly on that trajectory.

Spoiler:

Micc should have something more to say.
Bob what’s your take on how to use your role?

@MOD: Hypothetically if there were a treestump would stumping reset the deadline?

This is something we have to know. If the answer is no then we could get into lylo with no time left.

Micc target is horrible! Either alternative is better.
Simeon can be scum and fruit vendor but not sk.
Bob claim could be fake, and there is a scum stump.
My claim could be fake and there is a scum lover card.
I can’t imagine an experienced player making that targeting mistake.
OTOH why would an experienced player admit to it?
Wifom?

Town stump can turn mylo into lylo and continue to speak to help town so Bob’s answer is slightly fishy too.

If I am not in danger of being lynched, what should be the upsides of stumping from my point of view?

I already said what I think. I'm not sure it's an upside -- it might be a downside or it might not matter at all. My issue is that you didn't say anything either way regarding the outcomes (yes you mentioned risks but that's not the same), which makes me think you aren't thinking about the possible outcomes, which could mean you already know...

Right now my top scum candidate is Micc. He should have targeted me as top priority, especially if he thinks I'm scum.

Hmm, I was kinda hoping the answer on multiple actions would be no. Though yes was the expected answer TBH.
That means nobody is mechanically clear.
I could climb up on a pedestal and say I'm actually trying to solve and so I should be obv, but y'all

should

see that anyway.
Micc is a little sketch for trying to use my votes as evidence. VCA is pretty useless in a setup that's more likely to be MB than not.

You ignored my attempts to engage regarding kittenlicks during day 2

Umm, I'm fairly certain we had a conversation. You may not have been satisfied with it, and it's true that I didn't reply back to your last post on the subject, but I don't think it's fair to refer to it as not engaging. I also asked KittenLicks some things, and was satisfied with the answers. The point of that whole sequence was to challenge what seemed to be townreads both from and to her which were too easy.

I have the same problem with your night actions, in particular N2, as I had generally with Maru. I feel like a town role would know 100% what they should do with it. Or at least not do something 100% wrong. Especially after you had pointed out to KittenLicks that Simeon's role was 50/50 town or mafia -- if your role is what you claimed, it's hard to believe that you could point out the percentages to someone else and then forget them within a couple RL days (going by memory on that). There are plausible reasons you might have ignored the percentages and made that same play anyway, but you don't raise them as a defense.

It's pretty weak. Everything this game is weak. Dinner is ready so I need to stop typing.

I like Persivul so far, but I didn't quite tr bob. Micc seems genuine atm

I don't TR any of you. Might as well put it on the table.

Micc, saying that I'm not engaging you is a lie. You may not like the answers I'm giving, but we are having conversations. I'm the type of person who stops talking when I don't see anything new to add, maybe that bothers you? If you're "not satisfied" you could be a little more open about what you're not satisfied with.
This is not the point in the game where an OMGUS is acceptable. Pushing you on bad night actions is a sign of town, not scum.

But I don't want to put words in your mouth. Can you honestly say that you look at my posts and you don't think I'm solving? If you go beyond being wrong on a few things (and several/most of us have been wrong on something), point to something that's illogical or manipulative. Please do. And if you can't, please admit you can't.

Have you bothered to look at Simeon's ISO? I'm wondering if you see any original thought there. I looked before writing this post to see if my memory was right, and it's about 75% one liners. I can tell that you don't like my approach of testing whether people are genuine by asking them if they see what I see. Fine, I can show first, in another post.

Persivul seems much more town than Bob did.

That's davesaz's day 3 iso with any post where he's either pushing someone or stating a read up until he goes into the simeon case. There's a lot of pushing me, a little bit of pushing your slot (for what I still feel is completely unreasonable things), and absolutely nothing on simeon/bulba. Note how he finally chooses a direction once bulbazoor gives indication of his reads. It's natural scum instinct to want to be the last one to move and that's what I see when I look at his day 3 iso.

[davesaz]

The time has come to leave the tunnel.

Who is town and why?

[Micc]

bob/persivul are town because scum doesn't claim treestump ever, much less as the last person in mass claim. persivul's replace in was strong also.
simeon is town because of his early game play was decent and also poe with you being scum. bulba i'm ignoring at this point.

[davesaz]

I was the last person, claiming lover.
Thinking about compiling a list of "scum don't do x ever" statements to use those tactics when I'm scum. People are so closed minded here.
Simeon had me fooled too.
You'll gamethrow in LYLO. Replacing out is tempting but I don't know if that would be considered a tactical replace for town to do it to reset someone's read process.