In post 1041, Auro wrote:It's my style.
I honestly don't care that much for getting mislynched. I'm not the one making attacks on people, I just push and engage based on things till I'm satisfied.
So, like, a few problems I have with this:
1. I can't read that for shit. It's not transparent to me. I misread you in that recent Newbie and I have no idea what your alignment here is.
2. What does you being 'satisfied' even entail? That's such a nebulous outcome that it seems so damn easy to hide behind as either alignment. I don't think your engagement with either D.Va or Nancy here has helped me read any of the slots involved and, if anything, I find myself glazing over those back-and-forths more than anything.
3. How do you plan on actually netting a town win with this strat? You being 'satisfied' doesn't equate to read accuracy and none of this points towards you doing anything to convince others of who scum/town is.
@S_S: Yes. Your projections on probability are flawed.
Yes, an INDIVIDUAL has 1/12 chance of being Arthur, and, therefore, will always have 1/12 chance of getting Excalibur when moving to claim on N1.
That said, when you take the entire data set in at once, the probability of ARTHUR getting the sword when 12 individuals exist that could be Arthur drops for every one of the 12 that doesn't go for the sword. Yes, you could argue that this is offset by the increased probability of Arthur getting the sword if he is in the pool, but that creates far too much of a risk factor of Arthur being outside of the pool.