Excalibur [Endgame]

[Varsoon]

Ah, thought you were asking about your response mentioned in 1068.

[SirCakez]

@Sircakez: I'm dropping all content wrt the meta push I've had with DVa, and I don't want to talk about that further.

I mean ok but you should understand why this sudden dropping of it doesn't look great.

We have 5 days. If Elsa decides to duel anyone prematurely, denying us time, please murder them.

^ scum post

I am suggesting that you might possibly be able meta confitown me by reading them. No, I haven’t yet. I
generally don’t have strong scumreads this early in the game and that is true for 98% of my towngames.

I rarely have strong scumreads on D1, I am truly envious of those that do and I’m trying to figure out why that is.

I dislike meta in most cases. It's not even your lack of strong scumreads it's your lack of any scumreads at all that I can see. you don't even have a single scumlean on anyone? it's making you hard to read. S_S as well for the same reason.

I think the UT hurt case just boils down to not contributing much and him being a loose cannon later on. not really a great lynch, won't tell us much since scum would and could easily bus him. only good thing about it is he will probably be lynched or vigged before endgame anyway.

[SirCakez]

also watch the thread completely die now that Auro is taking the day off lol

[Untrod Tripod]

won't tell us much since scum would and could easily bus him. only good thing about it is he will probably be lynched or vigged before endgame anyway.

you haven't played with me much, have you

[SirCakez]

i've played with you a lot lol

[Untrod Tripod]

I drive the bus, son

[SirCakez]

wheels on the bus go round and round

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@Sircakez: I'm dropping all content wrt the meta push I've had with DVa, and I don't want to talk about that further.

I mean ok but you should understand why this sudden dropping of it doesn't look great.

We have 5 days. If Elsa decides to duel anyone prematurely, denying us time, please murder them.

^ scum post

I am suggesting that you might possibly be able meta confitown me by reading them. No, I haven’t yet. I
generally don’t have strong scumreads this early in the game and that is true for 98% of my towngames.

I rarely have strong scumreads on D1, I am truly envious of those that do and I’m trying to figure out why that is.

I dislike meta in most cases. It's not even your lack of strong scumreads it's your lack of any scumreads at all that I can see. you don't even have a single scumlean on anyone? it's making you hard to read. S_S as well for the same reason.

I think the UT hurt case just boils down to not contributing much and him being a loose cannon later on. not really a great lynch, won't tell us much since scum would and could easily bus him. only good thing about it is he will probably be lynched or vigged before endgame anyway.

Why is that a scum post, Cake?

Explain the scum motivation.

[Firebringer]

It gives you an excuse to ignore the person to push a policy lynch that could be scum motivated

[SirCakez]

b/c it's just a useless declaration of desire to PL

[SirCakez]

and it doesn't make any sense judging from your ISO
you have a scumread on Elsa so why should your desire to murder them be dependent on if they gladiate or not?

[Kokichi Oma]

Does the person who gets the sword aware they have it right away?

[Kokichi Oma]

Who is top 2 hurt right now

[Untrod Tripod]

It gives you an excuse to ignore the person to push a policy lynch that could be scum motivated

it's almost as if trying to force everyone to play the game by blindly following some kind of mechanics-based plan benefits scum more than town

[Nancy Drew 39]

Can you go more into your reads, S_S? How is this genuine Auro? What feels scum about UT? Why do you need experience to properly read 1/3 of the slots in the game?

I'm getting less confident with my townread on Something_Smart, I'm trying to find his logical conclusion to the discussion at the moment so we can get there fast and progress to other useful stuff.

I don't know what feels scummy about UT. Gamma's reason to scumread him seems weird -- I just checked, and UT did not play that game. I'm actually kinda towning UT from gut.

I probably need experience to *accurately* read a lot of slots, I'm still reading them based on their play this game alone, other players are telling me I'm wrong. *Shrug* And I probably am.

What? No this is incorrect. UT was in BoR and subbed out and got replaced by Moment.

[Untrod Tripod]

I was??? Hold please I have no memory of this.

[Untrod Tripod]

Oh that's right, I was in the middle of Army school and had to replace out because I had no time or energy for the game. Literally no memory of anything that happened in that game nor did I read some kind of retrospective about gladiators so my point stands

[Frozen Angel]

Hi

3 things:

1 - I forgot to check mafia scum and about this game cause some unexpected stuff happened in university and because I don't check ms a lot lately
2 - I will catch up and post content I don't care we're on page 44. I would do it if we were on page 100 bt now. I just need to have actual free time during a "day" not night, cause night is family time and I can't put so much time on this right now.
3 - I apologize for my last appearance and false promise. again I just forgot about this entirely after that.

These being said, I will read and post concentrated catchup on the game tomorrow morning or noon - depending on other stuff.

[Nancy Drew 39]

@Sircakez: I'm dropping all content wrt the meta push I've had with DVa, and I don't want to talk about that further.

I mean ok but you should understand why this sudden dropping of it doesn't look great.

We have 5 days. If Elsa decides to duel anyone prematurely, denying us time, please murder them.

^ scum post

I am suggesting that you might possibly be able meta confitown me by reading them. No, I haven’t yet. I
generally don’t have strong scumreads this early in the game and that is true for 98% of my towngames.

I rarely have strong scumreads on D1, I am truly envious of those that do and I’m trying to figure out why that is.

I dislike meta in most cases. It's not even your lack of strong scumreads it's your lack of any scumreads at all that I can see. you don't even have a single scumlean on anyone? it's making you hard to read. S_S as well for the same reason.

I think the UT hurt case just boils down to not contributing much and him being a loose cannon later on. not really a great lynch, won't tell us much since scum would and could easily bus him. only good thing about it is he will probably be lynched or vigged before endgame anyway.

I didn’t like some of LLD’s reads - can’t remember off the bat but she was scumreading some players I think are town. I also didn’t care for Arianne misrepping what I said by implying that I think town should blind vig every night. I want to figure out if she just misunderstood my posts or if it was intentional. I’m sorry not to be more helpful but I’m much stronger at finding townreads on D1.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart, I honestly think debating over *whether* it's 1/12 or not is not fruitful.

Where are you trying to go with that?

I don't want Varsoon to screw up a plan out of ignorance. Therefore, if he doesn't change his mind about going for the sword no matter what, and we decide that it's best to limit who takes the sword, I'll probably push to policy lynch him.

And Varsoon, you seem to have conceded that the probability of Arthur getting the sword is 1/12 no matter what without understanding what that really means. It's just as bad for Arthur to not get the sword because too many non-Arthurs claimed it as it is for Arthur to not get the sword because he didn't claim it. The end result is exactly the same, no matter what, and you're saying that the latter case is worse than the former case just because it feels worse, although math says they're exactly the same.

[Elsa Jay]

My countdown to challenging Lady begins now.

(expired on 2018-11-29 01:09:01)

[Firebringer]

It gives you an excuse to ignore the person to push a policy lynch that could be scum motivated

it's almost as if trying to force everyone to play the game by blindly following some kind of mechanics-based plan benefits scum more than town

Meh can be

[Varsoon]

If it's looked at solely as a probability question, yes, the probability is 1 out of 12 no matter what.
However, you're neglecting how the scum kill affects that probability.

@MOD: You said that the kill resolves before the sword is claimed, however, does the kill resolve AFTER or BEFORE it is decided which claimer will get it?
IE:
Is it SCENARIO 1: Player A and B go to claim Sword. Sword will random roll to player A. Scum kill player A. Sword is unclaimed in the morning because A died before they could claim it
or
SCENARIO 2: Player A and B go to claim Sword. Scum kill player A. Claim is rolled post-kill and goes to player B since they are the only one going for Sword?

[Varsoon]

It's it's scenario 1, the only reason I could fathom for you advocating for a pool smaller than all 12 players is if you are scum, as it gives you a higher chance of hitting the recipient before they become BP.

[Something_Smart]

Can you go more into your reads, S_S? How is this genuine Auro?

He's clearly made an effort to contribute to mechanics discussion and figure out what the hell we're supposed to do with this setup. It's not that it's impossible to fake that kind of involvement, but it would be a risky play to push yourself into the spotlight on a topic you know people are going to disagree with you on, and for which you'd have several very easy excuses for staying out of.

What feels scum about UT?

I've played with him twice, once as each alignment, both a long time ago. I recall him being extremely flippant and feigning ignorance and disinterest as an excuse to do whatever he wanted as scum, and I don't remember him doing that as town. I'm sure he does act flippant and disinterested as town, but as his scumbuddy I do remember seeing the scum motivation in what he was doing that game.

Why do you need experience to properly read 1/3 of the slots in the game?

Because many of these players are known for having strong scum games, high self-awareness, superficial similarity between town and scumgames, and/or great skill at manipulating emotion. These are all factors that contribute to players unfamiliar with them having a low success rate of reading them. And while I am obviously not unfamiliar with them (given that I know this stuff), it's been a long time since I've played with most of them and even if I did think I could read them a year ago, I don't still trust myself to do so. (And this of course changes from player to player, for instance Maria I have self-admittedly been pretty much unable to read with any accuracy, and I have pretty consistently read Cakez wrong, even when taking into account the fact that I always read him wrong.)