micro 833: a coalition (D O N E)

[Gamma Emerald]

Voting for yourself is suspicious how...??!?!!?? Like, their needs to be agreement on a group of 5, it’s pretty likely one of those group of five will be voting for that group
In fact it’s literally impossible from an arithmetic standpoint for no one in the coalition to vote for themselves for it
This feels kinda shady but maybe you’re just not used to this sort of thing idk...?

I get it, voting for yourself raises the town chance of winning, but it's also essential for scum to put themselves or their partner in.

Gamma, that reminds me, you didn't answer me why you actually thought it was so *off* me using a similar system to catching up (and I already explained that that wasn't the case as well).

I mean, I can kinda imagine you wanting a reason to drop your read on Yukino and get a more popular coalition with yourself inside? Not that I can't see a town pov.

I'm mulling it over.

Well I’m not super sure on my initial feelings towards how you were catching up. You made it rather clear that you were using a past method, so my suspicions were kinda misguided. You still used the same numbers as me but that can be coincidence.
And don’t think that scum I’d just self-heal. Last time I played this setup I was scum and I actually went against the grain of your theory with the hope of swinging people around towards including me (it failed). So I’m open to more unconventional plays than you might expect.

[Nibbui]

It's actually rather convenient you guys all believe in me and NM being the scum team so consistently, and even more that almost everyone has throw shade to my side.

Since I'm not going to vote for myself or NM, I guess we can say I'm pretty neutral-looking-figure on the whole thing?

that's kinda nice in a certain way

And don’t think that scum I’d just self-heal. Last time I played this setup I was scum and I actually went against the grain of your theory with the hope of swinging people around towards including me (it failed). So I’m open to more unconventional plays than you might expect.

Nope, let me make this clear:

If I ever vote on myself or NM here in the coalition you can just go about lynching me, I won't, under any circunstances, change this claim

It's a risk gamble since town could end up realizing I'm town later and we accidentaly get scum in the coalition, but it doesn't seem like the case.

Therefore, it's better to make a oath.

By doing this oath, since you guys think the NM/Nibbui, you can forget about us entirely and focus the rest of the day sorting between [Irrelephant, DVa, Gamma, TW], since I think that

(NSG, TDW, Skitter) is the common ground.

We can even debate Skitter if the needs come so.

Therefore, forget my and NM aligment, treat me like a treestump from now on

[Nibbui]

Also, no one should heal me either.

Let's sort before those other guys

Happy TDW?

[Nibbui]

so...mmmh, let's have fun thinking who is the scum team, since I just proved it isn't NM/Nibbui.

Any thoughts on who they might be?

I'll re:read some parts and post later whatever I find.

[Irrelephant11]

I think your reasons for not townreading me are silly, but keep doing your thing I guess

Let's pretend Nibbui really has "proved" he's not scum with NM (he sorta has, but not totally). Do we just think NM is scum anyway? Actually, regardless, if we all think [at least one of Nibbui/NM] is scum, the other has been playing alone. skitter and dva suddenly gain scum equity in my mind. Maybe TDW too? idk why I townread "I have to be in the coalition" more on tdw than the other two. If it's NM with someone doing somewhat well, it might explain NM not... trying.......

If we're in the bizarre world where nibbui/nm are both town, I'm not sure how possible it is that we make a coalition with 5 town tbh

Can skitter/dva arguments ever be svs?

[Irrelephant11]

Can skitter/dva arguments ever be svs?

to further this thought, it might be a good scum strategy to argue endlessly while otherwise seeming towny. It makes it easy to get one in/one out, and the scumreads on each other won't look as forced as other scumreads might (because they actually believe it)?
Not sure I believe it's what's happening, but interested in feedback thank u

[Nibbui]

Just woke up and there was something a bit wrong with me yesterday, I was sleepy and tired of reading so I got throw off more than I would like by the commotion, even more when I had to at the same time catch up with around 42 pages in one-go.

I suppose I'm more cool-headed now and can even deal with TDW without getting worked up, maybe.

I still kinda feel good about the oath, although I know it's not as functional as I would like it to be.

I overestimated a bit Skitter/TDW towniness on second thought, I keep not liking how Skitter never wavered on her TDW read because it's not clear for me yet how you couldn't doubt even a little him, I ~~confused~~ TDW with someone I know and that messed up my view on him a bit, I don't think it's wrong to find fault on some of his motivations or actions, like how he handed some reads easily and aggresively suggested to people around him to put him in the coalition (If NM is scum the other partner needs to get in the coalition doesn't matter what way).

That said, with the exception of NSG they might still be my best shots here for now.

I don't think it's a bad idea to think scum can be bussing each other by arguing like Irrelephant suggested, {TDW & TW} and {Skitter & DVa} aren't impossible despiste all arguing. Maybe it's exactly to insert only one of themselves in the coalition at the same time of distancing themselves from their partner.

Irrelephant keeps smooth as ever for me, and that's not necessarily scummy, but neither towny. He's good.

Gamma it's your time to shine, every town-good-boy is craving some enlightning posts from you.

[the worst]

morning

[Gamma Emerald]

Just woke up and there was something a bit wrong with me yesterday, I was sleepy and tired of reading so I got throw off more than I would like by the commotion, even more when I had to at the same time catch up with around 42 pages in one-go.

I suppose I'm more cool-headed now and can even deal with TDW without getting worked up, maybe.

I still kinda feel good about the oath, although I know it's not as functional as I would like it to be.

I overestimated a bit Skitter/TDW towniness on second thought, I keep not liking how Skitter never wavered on her TDW read because it's not clear for me yet how you couldn't doubt even a little him, I ~~confused~~ TDW with someone I know and that messed up my view on him a bit, I don't think it's wrong to find fault on some of his motivations or actions, like how he handed some reads easily and aggresively suggested to people around him to put him in the coalition (If NM is scum the other partner needs to get in the coalition doesn't matter what way).

That said, with the exception of NSG they might still be my best shots here for now.

I don't think it's a bad idea to think scum can be bussing each other by arguing like Irrelephant suggested, {TDW & TW} and {Skitter & DVa} aren't impossible despiste all arguing. Maybe it's exactly to insert only one of themselves in the coalition at the same time of distancing themselves from their partner.

Irrelephant keeps smooth as ever for me, and that's not necessarily scummy, but neither towny. He's good.

Gamma it's your time to shine, every town-good-boy is craving some enlightning posts from you.

Well I’ve commented on everything I care to comment on

[Gamma Emerald]

So like, if you want more, ask specific questions?

[Nibbui]

So like, if you want more, ask specific questions?

who are you willing to heal for the final post in your coalition?

Possible scum teams now that NM/Nibbui is impossible?

[Gamma Emerald]

So like, if you want more, ask specific questions?

who are you willing to heal for the final post in your coalition?

Possible scum teams now that NM/Nibbui is impossible?

Why is NM/Nibbui impossible; because you made a decision to try and “confirm” yourself? I don’t trust the reasoning behind that.
As for my final coalition I’d like NSG, I want DVa and skitter too, don’t see why there is a dichotomy between them. I also want TDW. Relly could swap in for one of those or take my place I guess. You, NM, and TW are slots I just don’t want in.

[Nibbui]

So like, if you want more, ask specific questions?

who are you willing to heal for the final post in your coalition?

Possible scum teams now that NM/Nibbui is impossible?

Why is NM/Nibbui impossible; because you made a decision to try and “confirm” yourself? I don’t trust the reasoning behind that.

I mean, I don't know what to say to you. If the scum team was NM/Nibbui I would be basically game throwing or at least playing very anti-wincon.

The unique possibility for it to not be a game throw is for me to be waiting you guys to think I'm town for it and heal me, but not only that seems extremely improbable for me, I'm as well here asking you guys to roleplay with me and not for a second entertain voting for either me or NM in this coalition.

As for my final coalition I’d like NSG, I want DVa and skitter too, don’t see why there is a dichotomy between them. I also want TDW. Relly could swap in for one of those or take my place I guess. You, NM, and TW are slots I just don’t want in.

Yeah but these are your thoughts that I already know of

I was hoping you would get the NM/Nibbui out of your mind and look at the game at least a bit different since even if one of (NM/Nibbui) is scum, if we aren't scum together it means that scum team is playing in a entirely different way than you are all imagining.

But yeah, kinda didn't work I guess

Idk what to do anymore to change that tbh, doesn't seem like we will progress any different with this mindset so maybe we might just as well move to voting for the consensus coalition with the actual mindset and compromissing one slot or another to reach 5 common ground.

Also, question about the mechanics (anyone can answer this). Do we get to know if the coalation for day 1 failed for the first lynch?

and if we lynch inside the coalition in the first day (knowing or not if it succeeded) , does the coalition automatically fails or something?

[Gamma Emerald]

Coalition comes before lynch so we’ll find out if it fails before day 1 lynch and flip
And even if you’re 100% sincere about you and NM not being a team, you could still be paired with anyone else, so it doesn’t change the fact you’re individually scummy, and the fact you’re focusing on the team implications rather than individual reads really reflects poorly on you.

[the worst]

I'd say the best way to disprove that team is to just omit both of them from the coalition.

I've thought about this a fair bit today and I still think skitter's proposal is the correct way to go.

[Gamma Emerald]

Which is

[the worst]

{me NSG TDW skitter relly}

[the worst]

if I'm wrong on someone via sheer underestimation it's always skitter but I don't feel wrong there.

if I'm wrong on a read it's probably Relly but I'm not comfortable on where to substitute.

[Nibbui]

Coalition comes before lynch so we’ll find out if it fails before day 1 lynch and flip

I see

And even if you’re 100% sincere about you and NM not being a team, you could still be paired with anyone else, so it doesn’t change the fact you’re individually scummy, and the fact you’re focusing on the team implications rather than individual reads really reflects poorly on you.

My point is that team implications are a good way to look at the current situation as well

in this game particularly

.

If one of us are scum, it means our partner would be all on their own and would

never

concede to be out of the coalition

I'd say the best way to disprove that team is to just omit both of them from the coalition.

Like, yes, that is the whole point of my proposition but ok

[DVa]

To be honest I'm having weird feelings at this point. NSG seemed really strong early game but Nibbui already has almost as much activity and engagement as her. I actually like his progression here, and I certainly like it a lot more than Relly's which seemed to want to overly on a few meta reads and frankly felt a little bit like it had an agenda.

HURT: NSG
HEAL: Nibbui

There, now I think I have a coalition that pisses literally everyone off again, so you can all do skitter and then we can finally get to the lynching

[Nibbui]

HURT: NSG
HEAL: Nibbui

Like, you kinda messed me up here

I was

right now

looking on your ISO and reconsidering your slot but now I feel like it will look like I'm trying to pocket you and my arguments are going to be seen from a biased view

You should unheal me though. Let's try to compromise somewhere else today

Also, It would be good to put NSG back on it, it's true that she isn't as engaged as early but lately I have the impression (and her sign kinda shows it), that she isn't as engaged in the games as she used to be. Her activity aside, her posts seems townie, I would be surprised if she was scum here.

I kinda feel that if Skitter isn't your partner you might be town by the way. Only one of my points: healing me right now is a bad move if you want your coalition to succeed, since no one will compromisse on me and neither I want to get on it. That said, you yourself are one of the few people willing to put your name on the coalition, so if you wanted to get in no matter what, you probably vote to the same coalition as TDW (that has you on it) while convincing Gamma of voting on that coalition as well (and that would be 3/5).

I feel that if your partner isn't skitter, you have some good chances of being town.

I don't know if I want you in the coalition for other motives I'll explain though. I feel that if we get you in the coalition and it fails, you're the first one to go while I think that we can get a town read on you by possibly eventually a flip on skitter.

[Nibbui]

I feel as if

NSG/ TDW/ Skitter/ DVa/ Gamma is the coalition with most chances of town winning day 1.

I don't like the way it'll probably unfolds if it fails though.

DVa and Gamma feel to me as slots that are able to be more easily pushed than the rest, and I'm not sure on Skitter, just as I don't discard TDW deepwolfing, to possibly waste 2 lynches when if Skitter ever flips town I'm confident that DVa is town.

NSG/TDW/Skitter/Irrelephant/TW feels too dangerous though, it's clear that after failing we will probably lynch Irrelephant, and afterwards it's Skitter vs TW. It's not a so good post-coalition situation for me.

For now though Skitter and TW are town reading each other and they seem to be reasonable good on it, my concern is Irrelephant, however I'll trust for now NSG's read on Raya, because although I would like to switch Irrelephant with DVa, I'll only do so if we're adressing Skitter vs TW first.

That's it for me I guess

HEAL: Irrelephant
HEAL: The worst

My towniness scale on that coalition is

Town
NSG

Kinda town
Skitter, TDW

Meh
The worst, Irrelephant

[Nibbui]

Like, perfect solution for me right now would be NSG/ TDW/ Skitter/ DVa/ Gamma

If it fails we lynch until a scum flip:

Gamma --> Skitter ---> TDW

I'm confident that even if it fails, we can at least 100% lynch scum there

But meh, I don't think I can get what I want here.

I'll compromise on that coalition of you guys.

[the worst]

Nibbui speak up if I'm being a bit slow here x

during the vig game I remember the main reason you became a "must lynch before lylo" as Fumuki was that he was making some stubborn and seemingly strong, nuanced pushes but after long enough it started to look like he was just pushing the same arguments over again as though it was a clear-set path?

does this make sense and do you agree/disagree? do you get why I'm still pretty uncomfortable with you here?

[Nibbui]

Nibbui speak up if I'm being a bit slow here x

during the vig game I remember the main reason you became a "must lynch before lylo" as Fumuki was that he was making some stubborn and seemingly strong, nuanced pushes but after long enough it started to look like he was just pushing the same arguments over again as though it was a clear-set path?

does this make sense and do you agree/disagree? do you get why I'm still pretty uncomfortable with you here?

Yeah, I think that is a portion of it. Maybe there was still some hope for me there if NSG hadn't vigged Shadow on n1, but I def wasn't on good legs

Coincidentally these days I was bored and decided to re:read that game a little to see what was wrong with it so I already have an opinion.

I don't think it was only because I was stubborn, I was as well just...awkward?

My pushes were awkward, my progression was awkward and shy, and all I could do was the repeat the same thing over and over, with a twist here or there sometimes.

Also, holy crap, what was wrong with me with these lamist posts of mine? "maybe we should increase the deadline?", "people need to post", "you guys are ignoring X person that is afk".

I'm quite confident that I would scum read myself right off the bat these days, and you guys did the same, but I abused a little the fact I was new to say "I'm clueless lmao".
(and I was clueless because I didn't notice how lamist it was)
-------------------------------------------

About you being uncomfortable about me here I get it partially. 65%.

I think I did things here that I wouldn't do as scum and I'm not going into details of that, maybe you or a certain person will notice that.

But yeah, I definitely got throw off by the commotion when I replaced and taking hotpots on people. I feel like I learned that talking too much while catching up is not a good idea, because you'll say a lot of repetitive things that normally are scattered around the ISO of players, however on the catchup it'll all stick together and look needlesly bad. Not only that, I didn't have much time to consider over some matters at that time, therefore my arguments will see even more tedious, repetitive and stubborn because I'm mulling it over and over. I'm kinda paranoid?

Also, I've been a bit awkward in the begin, I feel I could be smoother if I didn't get worked up in the start. Definitely. (I'm slowly recovering my pace I would say! )

There was a lot for me to process, it was like 45 pages in one-go, and only now I'm firm on my reads and solve. I'm even a bit surprised by it, I was very indecise back there. Settling a coalition seemed a nightmare.

I would say that you can sitback and be reserverd about me for now, I'm confident (again) that I can show my towniness for you all from now on

I just hope we get the coalisition right and I don't need to go through the effort though