A Story Revisited (Anything uPick): Day 6

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Nero is a "my gut tells me he's town" read. Full disclosure, I'm pants at reading Nero. I have no idea how to read gamma. I have so far managed to determine he is not my mason buddy. LA is fairly scummy from a while back. Her whole approach to the Nico bit felt like she was just trying to stick to me/jj and fly under the radar, and when called out on it got super aggressive on the person we were talking to/about the most. Ari is in a similar but opposite place to Nero, in that I know I don't have a good track record of reading him, but my gut says he's scum.

[Nero Cain]

Vecna- Probably responsible for the missing kill N2. Possibly responsible for the missing kill tonight. Probably town.

I very much disagree with this. 1. No way scum shot at Mastina b/c she was scum 2. I highly doubt Mastina would be the one that carries out the kills b/c her getting tracked/watch is a death sentence and mafia needed those no lynches she was giving ya'll

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Also, someone asked what FB is gonna give me tonight. I think that leaving what the action is hidden prevents RB and similar roles from knowing whether I should be targeted or not

Wouldn't the best use of his role be to give it to the other confirmed town slot and we find a replace in for it?

Eh. There's a value to keeping the investigate in the hands of someone Fire is sure is town but no one else is. I'm a potential mislynch, so I'm not going to get shot. If fire is 100% confident I'm town I'm the better choice than Adalbert replacement.

Also, that's assuming we can get a replacement for Adalbert, which with the way replacements have been going is not guaranteed.

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mafia needed those no lynches she was giving ya'll

What?

How would mafia be in a worse position in any way if mastina had never used her ability? AS and FB wouldn't be conftown. At best we would've lynched town. At worst we would've no lynched naturally. Mastina only ever derailed town lynches.

If I was on the scum team, the player whose role was derail town lynches in hopes of maybe faking a guilty, especially if said guilty could be reactively faked, would 100% be taking the investigation risks.

[Nero Cain]

Well, I asked TW yesterday, gonna ask a few others today.

Keep in mind, he (adalbert's slot) apparently won't die so I feel like giving it there instead of giving it to a plater we might lynch and is not confirmed is a better use, barring we find a replacement.

[Nero Cain]

I guess this delves into game theory but when towns no lynch is means there is a 0% chance of lynching mafia. All mafia has to do is kill that confirmed town slot and nothing about the gamestate changes. Feels pretty icky to me that you are using hindsight to justify why its good.

Also, I'm a bit surprised that you choose to cherry-pick this to argue about and not my doubts on Vecna.

[Nero Cain]

This also seemed a little odd. Firstly using the word probable when we know there are 3 scum left. And starting with the number 2 (as if you expect one of your town reads to flip scum.)

That leaves a

probable 2-5

scum in the following:

Shoshin- Not on the lynch table without 3 more scumflips.
The Meme Men
Nero Cain
Gamma Emerald
Aristophanes
Lady Angel
Whemestar

Gamma is the null line in the last group.

[northsidegal]

do we know that there are three scum left?

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There are explicitly at least 3 scum left.

There could theoretically be 5 scum left, but if so Shoshin is confscum.

[northsidegal]

would you mind going through the reasoning on that for me one more time?

[Nero Cain]

do we know that there are three scum left?

Sometimes I wonder if you and shoshin not understanding that there are 3 scum left is just fake derp and not real derp.

[Gamma Emerald]

Machine was repaired before last night tho...

Gimme a sec

[northsidegal]

why don't you enlighten me as to your reasoning if it's so obvious?

[Nero Cain]

1) The setup consists of 5 scum, 16 town, and 2 players who can be town, mafia, or third party.

before Shoshin replaced in it was 1 player that could be town, mafia or third party.

[Nero Cain]

and 2-5=3. I suck at math and I can even figure that out!

[Nero Cain]

or 5-2 rather

[northsidegal]

am i missing something or does saying "5 scum minus the two scum we have flipped equals three scum left" ignore the fact that there are still 2 "flex" slots that could also be scum?

[northsidegal]

completely ignoring any pretenses of how realistic you think that seems

[Gamma Emerald]

Skygazer was smited for inactivity! She was

A misguided man who just read Lorenz's famous paper On chaos theory ("Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?") and is now off to Brazil with three months of camping supplies and a butterfly net in an attempt to do something with that information, Town Very Intelligent Person

.

Spoiler: Role PM

That fucker who beat me in pool is going to regret the fuck out of that shit. I will destroy his fucking house.

Welcome, Skygazer. You are

A misguided man who just read Lorenz's famous paper On chaos theory ("Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?") and is now off to Brazil with three months of camping supplies and a butterfly net in an attempt to do something with that information, Town Very Intelligent Person

, Conditional Night Skipper.



Tornado (Night Skipper): If you manage to trigger a tornado in Texas, it will skip a night.
Plane to Brazil (Night Zero): You are currently flying to brazil. You don't have an action right now.

You win when the Mafia have been removed and at least one Townie is still alive.

Chickadee has died! She was

A Song Stuck in Somebody's Head, Spammy Annoyance

.

Spoiler: Role PM

MAKE IT STOP!

Welcome, Chickadee. You are

A Song Stuck in Somebody's Head, Spammy Annoyance

. You are a Loud Repeating Youtube Linker.



The Song! (Loud Youtube Linker): As often as you like you may pick a player and send them a song from youtube. They will know you have done this.
Stuck in their head (Repeating): When you do this the song will get sent to them again as often as I feel like sending it to them. It might get annoying.

You win when the Mafia have been removed and at least one Townie is still alive.

i guess replace me lol

sorry rc i tried

Invisibility replace request came after SoD4
Stop.

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Also, I'm a bit surprised that you choose to cherry-pick this to argue about and not my doubts on Vecna.

I mean... The fact that mastina making the kill makes perfect sense to me IS the best argument for Vecna town in my mind. His claimed use of power is a very reasonable town use of power, and in doing so he provides the most reasonable explanation for the no kill. (I explicitly don't believe Vec got shot.)

I'm also currently operating under the assumption that NR flips scum (note, she's not in that list) and that Adalbert was 'killed' last night. I doubt he's fully unkillable. That's just an awkward role.

[Jingle]

am i missing something or does saying "5 scum minus the two scum we have flipped equals three scum left" ignore the fact that there are still 2 "flex" slots that could also be scum?

The parsing error here is that "There are 3 scum" does not mean there can't be 4 or 5 scum. Nero's argument for not lynching Shos is that there ARE 3 scum that aren't Shos. Shos might be another scum, but we know that there are 3 that aren't her.

[northsidegal]

gotcha.

the more arrogantly an assertion is pushed, the better it feels to disprove it

also, shos is not shoshin

[Nero Cain]

the more arrogantly an assertion is pushed, the better it feels to disprove it

ummm ok?

[Jingle]

The probable is acknowledgement that I could be wrong on my reasoning for putting someone in another pile.

[Jingle]

also, shos is not shoshin

but...

3 more letters. Way too much work.

Also, I know shos, and I doubt anyone would make that mistake, so I figured the lack of shos in this game would make it clear.