Open 741: Red Flag [Endgame]

[RadiantCowbells]

By the way @Nibbui, RC and Ceejay have both played with town!me before, whereas Orfhz and Ruru have not. RC seems to be strong townreading me, Ceejay is either nullreading me or townleaning me, and Ofrhz/Ruru are scumreading me. Does that affect your read of me at all?

It doesn't because I don't like how sly Ceejay has been sounding nor the kind of thought process RC is showing. It's not necessarily a scum read but yeah.

Also I got interested in something, do you think that Radiant hard town read on you is valid and reasonable? Or do you think that it's a early read but it's being beneficial to you right now (and it's hipothetically correct)?

Are you suggesting RC's townread on me might be TMI, i.e. he is scum and *knows* that I am town? Perhaps, but at the moment his townread of me seems genuine, because he is essentially going against the tide and defending me when it is not really the *popular* thing to be doing. Yes I have, as town, received false townreads from scum, but usually that happens when I have already established myself as strong town, and scum will townread me because it's an easy townread for them to justify. Clearly I haven't established myself as strong town in this game (at least not yet), so I don't see scum!RC's motivation in townreading me and defending me at this point in time. If I am town and RC is scum, what is his motivation in trying to get BlackJacks lynched instead of me?

RC is a townread for me at the moment.

What is your experience with RC?

How confident you're that you can read RC intentions as scum?

1) that question goes for you too
2) you've seen me hard read people for far less and been correct about it

[Aster]

Also, what is your taken on Volxen and RC's town read on him?

This turned out to be a surprisingly intriguing question.

RadiantCowbells is townreading a post of Volxen that parrots stuff that has already been said. It is not something I would townread myself or call "townish". Notable is that Volxen is the only player RadiantCowbells has townread and stated his reasons for so far. Notable is that his townread happened

before

he started his case against Blackjacks. He had already RVS-voted Blackjacks earlier, but he only started his case against Blackjacks later.

It is remarkable that Volxen has been the only player so far who RadiantCowbells has graced with an explanation of their townread on them. More remarkable is how RadiantCowbells

later

proceeds to attack the player who leads the Bandwagon against Volxen for seemingly unrelated reasons. This resembles a

chainsaw defense

.

We have two events:

1. RadiantCowbells states the reasons he townreads somebody for only one Player "A" who doesn't seem that townish to me;
   
2. RadiantCowbells attacks only one Player "B" who is attacking only one other Player "C".

It would take a one in eleven coincidence for "Player A = Player C" if these events were independent. Note that one in eleven coincidences are not that infrequent since you only notice coincidences that actually happen and nobody would remark anything about this situation if A ≠ C, but it is still suggestive.

FoS: RadiantCowbells, Volxen

[Aster]

What is your current taken on Blackjack though? You said before that they were somewhat lurkers and I get that but they have been posting a bit more now.

I'm still feeling neutral about Blackjacks aside from the part that I suspect scum may be pushing against them.

Blackjacks' greatest contribution so far has been attacking Volxen based on "Ellitell" right now, which seems to be: (1) Volxen is inactive, (2) Volxen is active in other games, (3) Ellitell has indicated scum!Volxen before. The case does make sense: if we observe something that happens when Volxen is scum and does not happen when Volxen is town, then Volxen is likely scum. I haven't personally verified whether the premises hold though.

What is remarkable is how Blackjacks themselves seemed to be uncharacterally inactive in this game while pushing somebody else for inactivity plus some other stuff. Blackjacks isn't inactive in the Ellitell way that Volxen is, but it makes me wonder: would scum try to push a lynch on somebody based on inactivity when inactive themselves? If they are lying low, wouldn't they rather try to distract from inactivity tells?

On the other hand, it could make sense that pushing others on inactivity tells requires little explanation and is therefore a good way to avoid having to say much. I haven't sorted Blackjacks themself without associations yet.

[Firebringer]

Ur fos is really bad disaster

[pinturicchio]

Her FoS is pretty good, I came to the same conclusion. I believe Volxen is town tho, but the chainsaw defense is the same point I made before (I couldn't remember the name of it, but I explained)

[pinturicchio]

Oh wait that doesn't make sense

[pinturicchio]

Chainsaw defense is when you defend a partner right? I don't agree with that then but it's a good and fair point, very close to what I believe

[Firebringer]

ur both wrong.

[pinturicchio]

Enlighten us then

[Firebringer]

ur correlating anti town behavior as scum behavior and i am telling u all of rc behavior so far indicate he is playing this as town from my 3+ years of knowing him.

and usually i am not confident in my reads on him and right now i am 99% sure he is town.

[RadiantCowbells]

notably people calling me out for tmi reads is one of the single strongest indicators in a game that i am town because as scum i am very careful about having tons of supporting evidence for my reads

[pinturicchio]

I had him as null with all the anti town shit he did, but that changed with volxen towning it up

[RadiantCowbells]

I had him as null with all the anti town shit he did, but that changed with volxen towning it up

what you're essentially saying is that i wasn't good enough to have townread him off of his first post without being tmi scum

[pinturicchio]

Don't talk to me

[Firebringer]

I had him as null with all the anti town shit he did, but that changed with volxen towning it up

i don't even understand ur point of ur read then

[pinturicchio]

I had him as null with all the anti town shit he did, but that changed with volxen towning it up

i don't even understand ur point of ur read then

As scum, I protected a mislynchable town player in order to get a win win situation: if he's mislynched, I get some credit because my read was good; if he's not mislynched, he will still be suspected the next day and will be good MyLo/LyLo material. The reason I had for townreading the mislynchable player? "Guys, I know this guy is town, I've seen it play like this before. Trust me".

I'm not falling for my own strat.

[Blackjacks]

Gyus please stop making the game a Toxic Atmosphere it's disturbing Clemency who is trying to sleep.

-r

[pinturicchio]

And by "my own strat" I don't mean that I created it or something, it's not that hard to do it. I mean that I know it's very possible and doable since I've done it, so from my PoV, scum!RC makes sense.

[Blackjacks]

Are we a mislynchable town player sir?

[pinturicchio]

Are we a mislynchable town player sir?

Are you implying I'm the one who is defending the mislynchable player here? no, I don't think you're mislynchable, not at all.

If I remember correctly, it was UglyDuck in a multiball game I played, and I relied on meta to townread him.

[Firebringer]

I had him as null with all the anti town shit he did, but that changed with volxen towning it up

i don't even understand ur point of ur read then

As scum, I protected a mislynchable town player in order to get a win win situation: if he's mislynched, I get some credit because my read was good; if he's not mislynched, he will still be suspected the next day and will be good MyLo/LyLo material. The reason I had for townreading the mislynchable player? "Guys, I know this guy is town, I've seen it play like this before. Trust me".

I'm not falling for my own strat.

i think rc is known for not explaining reads, to say this is scum motivated or he isn't explaining reads because he is scum is like not knowing or playing with him. and I think this basis for reading him is very superficial and lacks usefulness.

[volxen]

I had him as null with all the anti town shit he did, but that changed with volxen towning it up

i don't even understand ur point of ur read then

As scum, I protected a mislynchable town player in order to get a win win situation: if he's mislynched, I get some credit because my read was good; if he's not mislynched, he will still be suspected the next day and will be good MyLo/LyLo material. The reason I had for townreading the mislynchable player? "Guys, I know this guy is town, I've seen it play like this before. Trust me".

I'm not falling for my own strat.

That's a fair point about it being a valid scum strategy, but why do you think that scenario is more likely than town!RC just genuinely townreading me? Just because he townread me too early on in the game?

[pinturicchio]

mod, I'll be on V/LA until Thursday/Friday since I'm having cirgury tomorrow morning

[northsidegal]

mod, I'll be on V/LA until Thursday/Friday since I'm having cirgury tomorrow morning

Noted.

[northsidegal]

-