Open 741: Red Flag [Endgame]

[mastina]

(The only change is that I removed the spoiler tags, which were formatted in a way which

looks

like for all intents and purposes it shouldn't break...but for some ungodly reason, did. By removing them, I removed the issue, but that will permanently affect the entire rest of my iso, as well as the iso of anyone who quotes it, so I'd prefer it just be removed and save everyone the headache.)

[Aster]

Mastina's gambit

I think there's something odd about mastina's story. First, you claim that you were 70% confident that your role would be scum before replacing in. Assuming that you're not scum, you should believe your role to be a very bad NK target: why would the mafia want to kill scummy lynchbait?

Nevertheless, you "seemed" to be sufficiently scared of getting killed tonight that you wanted to already tell the mod about your reads so you could be like "I TOLD YOU SO" when you end up in the dead thread [1083]. However, your reads do not seem all that thorough at all—by your own statement, it is a "trash-tier, surface-level, quick one-minute VCA" [1073].

This really makes me wonder what made you feel so pressured to send your contributions to the mod. It couldn't have been the fear that the effort you spent tonight would be wasted in vain if the mafia were to kill you tonight, or some desire to protect your awesome reads from being wasted in any circumstance. In fact, the logic you state doesn't even make sense:

And if I did die, then that typed out message verbatim would be posted to the dead thread since I know northsidegal makes them in all games she mods. I wanted it written out as proof that, yes, I did have the reads which I would then claim to have had, for better or more likely for worse.

Provided that you were to get killed tonight and flip town, there would be nothing preventing you from posting you message verbatim in the dead thread yourself. It is not like "I got killed and flipped town" would give you any information that would make your reads less valuable.

Assuming mastina is scum

That, of course, is the story if you're town. On the other hand, suppose you're scum. Then your actions make sense for a confused scummer:

• As Volxen was a considerable lynch target, there may have been talks about considering nightkilling Volxen to prevent them from getting lynched tomorrow, planting the idea that you are a viable NK target.
  • Alternatively that didn't happen (because it'd be a stupid plan anyway), but you just forgot that from a town perspective you should think you were unlikely to be NK'ed.
• You subconsciously know that you would flip scum if killed, which would strongly impact the information available. This planted the idea that killing you would grant ample extra information and significantly decreasing the value of reads made without that information unless you could prove they were made during the night.
  
• There's clear motivation: scum wouldn't contact the mod with their reads, making what you supposedly did a town action, and you wanted to farm towncred. As bonus this explains why you went out of your way to tell us that your quick one-minute VCA happened during night.

Conclusion

Your whole story about making reads and contacting the mod about them looks like a LAMISTY gambit attempt to make yourself look town; when you wrote your story you were unable to distance yourself from your scum knowledge and gave motivations that don't even make sense for a townie.

VOTE: mastina

[LolWagons]

Oh my god you’re both so wordy.

[AnonymousGhost]

I'm not sure how many points this would be, but it's at least a minimum of +2 AnonymousGhost. (I'll be conservative here.)

why are you being conservative in regards to this particular post*?

*Gamma's sheep on Aster's wall

[pinturicchio]

This is an epic battle

[mastina]

MEME MEN: yikes. This one lied about meta with me. That’s a solid scum marker.

vote: THE MEME MEN

Where did he lie about meta? I double checked his ISO and didn't see him commenting about meta anywhere

Btw, this fits Gamma's scum meta of...ironically, pulling up meta from nowhere.

Statement not actually helpful

it actually is, considering there are players who just quick vote rashly
this setup is innately scum sided. anyone who disagrees , feel free to explain. I actually wish we got scum role but we didn't

It just seemed forced in my opinion MEMEMAN, it's not like scum team can just go quicklynching everyone

Aster, nothing to comment about my post talking about you?
The posts you commented are after it so I'm just saying in case you did skip mine

I didn’t skip his posts, I skipped your analysis of those. Otherwise your analysis was right, you just have the wrong motivation. I was trying to put out my RQS conclusions and didn’t want to delay it, lus general laziness.

then if you didn't skip his posts and was only voting him for not remembering you, does it mean you have no problems with his posts?

I'm hoping Aster is town here, it would be quite troublesome otherwise...
I think your explanation is pretty valid Aster, but not that I'm accusing you, however you seem like the kind of player that could easily come with that explanation as scum even if you didn't had that motive at that time

then if you didn't skip his posts and was only voting him for not remembering you, does it mean you have no problems with his posts?

Not really.

That's quite troubling...

Also I noticed talking about calling people LAMIST without voting to see how they’d respond so I’ll respond to my accusation of that by saying that’s a fair statement, but it was an earnest question I asked.[/color]

We didn't call it LAMIST only for the reactions though...but yeah, it might be frustating to be suspected (as either alignment) but bear with us because it is hard to believe on people here.

Also, shouldn't we be careful about who we vote?

Because if scum is well coordinated, then after we vote, they could just pile on all 4 as 4 more votes.

He's saying for us to be careful when there was only people throwing RVS votes, it seemed just as "too soon" as Gamma's question, and I have a easier time seeing a bored town wanting to start a conversation with someone by asking "any thoughts on anyone alignment?" than a town that by seeing RVS says for us to not vote so rashly.
Plus, thinking that after we vote scum team could quickly hammer someone without raising suspicious is kinda...
I mean, maybe MEMEMAN said that genuinely, I can see that, however it just seems more likely to come from scum for now in my opinion.

Forgot to switch votes
VOTE: MEMEMAN
It is a hard choice between voting Gamma or MEMEMAN though...

I know ofhrz and I know her MEME STYLE
Can I be the Psy to your CL?
Doesn't mean you have to townread me, but tell me who you think I should vote rn other than myself :3

mmmmh, not trying to cherrypick but it sounds pretty bad when you say "tell me who I should vote for"
MEMEMAN, you're not helping yourself here, as either alignment

Normal town: Aster
Meme-town: Blackjacks

I'm quite interested on your town read of Blackjacks. They haven't posted their thoughts at all except in one post, so that means that you're town reading them for their behavior right? If you think that's town-BJ behavior, what do you think they would be doing as scum? I mean, I would appreciate if you explained this read.

Current interest: Nibbui
VOTE: Nibbui

Before you had said you were insterested in Keyser but couldn't put your finger around it, has that changed?
Also, why are you insterested in me?

Before you had said you were insterested in Keyser but couldn't put your finger around it, has that changed?

Actually I said Keyser was probably scum and that's all I've said about his slot, I never said I couldn't put my finger around him. Although one must ask, can anyone ever put their finger around Keyser Soze? Like that, he's gone...

Oh right, I think it was Gamma that said about being interested in Keyzer but not knowing exactly what. Sorry. I'm still insterested on a explanation of your town read on BJ though, and what do you think they would be doing as scum?

I still would be inclined to believe that ruru is town here

why and how would you differentiate town-ruru in early game to scum-ruru in early game? Sorry if it's a drag to explain but I would appreciate if you or anyone townreading BJ did so

Looking back on it...

Knowing the towniness of Ruru is not something that can be explained, it is something you must let yourself feel in your heart
-rh

What game(s) are you using as samples to "know the towniness" of Ruru?

In other news, I didn't like BJs' entrance

. The post was fine, I laughed, but seems like it was prepared before the game started. My problema with that is that it was a huge post and it's obvious that took a lot of effort.

I tend to scumread people who puts that much of an effort on RVS; preparing a post before the game starts is past that line

.

Even if I still believed that the message was prepared beforehand, I still would be inclined to believe that ruru is town here

Pintu, help me here sort this out, but for me it seems like you really had something against BlackJacks in 185 for their big post, very close to a scum read, however after us debating it a little and not thinking it's a big deal, you say in 233 that you would still townread BlackJacks even if you did believe in their post being made beforehand.

My point is that I kinda don't feel that how you adressed BJ in 185 comes from someone that genuinely believes her to be towny in a general sense.

Am I wrong somewhere?

Pintu, you're kinda getting too defensive with me again...
MEMEMEN might be questioning you about the veracity of your read, however I was questioning your thought process behind your actions, that for now had been your read/discussion on Ruru. That's not the same thing and I would appreciate if you didn't put us together in a little nice box .

Now to the polemic question: Are scum going to buss or not?

Relevant.

The asking for those townreading BJ isn't due to it implying BJ as scum--quite the opposite, it's evidence Blackjack is town. But rather, the defense of Blackjack as town is something consistent across rather scummy slots implying a level of information they shouldn't have leading to a certainty in that read which shouldn't be present, so Nibbui asking them why they are townreading Blackjack is valid, particularly given--and here's the key part--Blackjack was the only wagon that got to a notable size other than the lynch of Springtrap.

And one which if RC is telling the truth about his contributions.
Was spearheaded by him, initially.

Scum resisting a wagon they know is spearheaded by strong town? Right up their alley if RC is town.
For that matter, scum dividing their efforts by having one spearhead the lynch and the rest resist it? Still up their alley in case RC is scum, although I do confess that's the less likely of the two outlooks at this point. (Basically, RC can still be scum but mounting evidence suggests he's more likely to not be scum. However, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER HE IS TOWN OR SCUM, the strong defense of Blackjack is suspect across the board.)

[pinturicchio]

Keep reading mastina, we solved that shit ages ago.

[mastina]

First, you claim that you were 70% confident that your role would be scum before replacing in. Assuming that you're not scum, you should believe your role to be a very bad NK target: why would the mafia want to kill scummy lynchbait?

Because of reputation.
I explained very clearly there:
If the scumteam was made of experienced players who knew me, they'd leave me alive.
If the scumteam was made of inexperienced players who didn't know me, there was a real chance they would nightkill me no matter how much an appetizing mislynch bait I'd otherwise be.

The difference between the two is how people who have interacted with me perceive my townplay, and how people who are newbies that have only heard of my exploits particularly my status as an expert on mafia theory who has written bundleloads of articles on townplay, would perceive my townplay.

Thus, living or death would be a determinable factor in scumteam composition. I die, scumteam is players I don't know but doesn't matter because I am dead. I live, scumteam is made up at least partially of players who have good reason to believe that I can safely be left alive.

This really makes me wonder what made you feel so pressured to send your contributions to the mod.

Simple, really.
I am a vain, narcissistic, egotistical bitch.
I sent the analysis to northsidegal immediately after my offer to replace in, on Sunday; I typed out the post I entered with on Monday after I got home from work, that was based on the one I sent on Sunday. There was no grander purpose other than satiating my inner desire to be right.

Provided that you were to get killed tonight and flip town, there would be nothing preventing you from posting you message verbatim in the dead thread yourself.

Uh.
That message wasn't written for me being killed tonight.
I already know now that I've lived that I ain't being nightkilled for the rest of the game.
If it was going to happen, it was going to happen

last

night. Which was what the message was typed for.
I knew I had two possible fates this game.

Killed upon entering in by players who didn't know anything about me other than my reputation through MD, or lynched after playing because the scumteam had someone on it that knew I wasn't to be feared. There were no other outcomes.

[mastina]

Keep reading mastina, we solved that shit ages ago.

I realize it was a small point, thus you probably missed it, but I specifically noted it was Yuurei's

earlier

content I was interested in, for this reason:

Not to discard the nightkill, by the way--haven't done a full iso there but I did particularly note that

Yuurei as I knew the account holder as, is particularly competent but prone to reevaluating things that shouldn't have been reevaluated

, and had fingered quite heavily Gamma I believe it was? Or was it Meme? Or was it both? Butyeah, that didn't escape my notice and I'll get to it in due time.

Yuurei is prone to reevaluating reads which should not have been reevaluated.

That is my belief on the status of the stance regarding those defending Blackjack.
No matter what Nibbui's

later

stances/posts were on the subject, I feel it is the earlier positions which warranted the nightkill in the first place.

Specifically, for the reasons I pointed out in 1130.
Nibbui fingered quite heavily Gamma and Meme, with some fingering of Aster and Keyzer, with pint later on.

A point I found particularly poignant was that Nibbui correctly discerned that the strong defense of Blackjack was suspicious--I just feel that Nibbui was wrong about the reasoning. Not because of scum defending their scumbuddy, but because of scum white knighting the obvious lynchbait about to be power-lynched, and that the players defending Blackjack

shouldn't

have been defending them that strong, and thus, that their defense of him was showing (to use the new lingo) TMI.

I'm not sure how many points this would be, but it's at least a minimum of +2 AnonymousGhost. (I'll be conservative here.)

why are you being conservative in regards to this particular post*?
*Gamma's sheep on Aster's wall

For the sake of giving a conservative estimate for how scum you are rather than a more liberal estimation of how scum you are, to give figures that will let the doubters go, "Hmm, that's fair/reasonable" rather than "Hey, that seems pretty harsh". I'm essentially giving a form of benefit of the doubt, where I am projecting the interaction as the least-scummy value possible, as to have the people who aren't sure, be able to take a look at it and understand how even if doing things conservatively, it is still strong evidence supporting my working theory.

[AnonymousGhost]

Don't think the harshness will actually affect someone perception of your scum read on me unless you're attacking me as a person cuz they're also supposed to be game solving/taking your words with a grain of salt.

[LolWagons]

Mastina, would you wagon GE with me? Pin expressed interest too.

I think that’s the correct first wagon today.

[LolWagons]

Don't think the harshness will actually affect someone perception of your scum read on me unless you're attacking me as a person cuz they're also supposed to be game solving/taking your words with a grain of salt.

Odd

[mastina]

you could create a philosophy based on that maybe

Btw on the subject of philosophy.
In a game guaranteed to have no power roles, you know that the only metrics in play to determine the nightkill are based around the town triple threat.
How obvtown are they (how impossible to lynch are they, or similar), how charismatic are they (how easily they sway people, how good their reasoning is, and similar), and how accurate they are.

However, those three metrics can be viewed by three perspectives:
Reputation without prior evidence (that is, hasn't been seen in the game, but know about it);
Prior evidence which is currently not the case;
Current evidence which is obviously the case.

A player who is obvtown on D1, for instance, may be a viable lynch D4, or vice-versa, viable lynch D1 obvtown on D4.
Similarly, some players specialize at charisma early-game; other players specialize at charisma late-game, and everywhere in-between.

But what I really am getting at here is accuracy.

If given the choice between two players that are equally obvtown and equally charismatic--or close enough to warrant it being a tough call--which metric do you use?

If it is by reputation, we can ascertain no further information from the kill, because we have no way of knowing who knows Yuurei's reputation; most players N1 probably had an equal idea.

If it is instead by either current accuracy or past accuracy...ten times out of ten, I am going to go for the one who was in the past accurate.

The reason I am going to go for the one in the past that was accurate is stupidly obvious.

The person who is currently accurate has no way of knowing they are currently accurate. Given time, they will likely change their reads to be inaccurate. Furthermore, because players do NKA, they are going to look at the player's last-stated reads and read in reverse-chronological order. This is the exact thing I want to avoid doing as scum, because it points the town squarely at the direction I am hoping to avoid.

The person who is currently inaccurate but was previously accurate, having shown they were previously accurate, is likely to at some point reevaluate, reset, go back to square one, and revisit their old reads. (I know that one of the first things I do when I am doing a reset is to visit my old processes, and I know this is not at all uncommon a thing to do; it's standard practice.)
Reads I would rather have them NOT be revisiting.
And because they died inaccurate, players who do NKA will be looking at the wrong spot, the end where they were inaccurate.

This is how I would do it, and obviously, my way is not the only way.
My way

is

, however. The best way, and it doesn't take a mafia genius to put together why.

People who believe in NKA look in the wrong spot.
People who don't believe in NKA don't look at all.
The player who proved they

could

be a threat is removed, before they become a threat again.
The player who is currently a threat, via not dieing, thinks that there's a good reason they're alive, and reevaluates to the point where they are no longer a threat.
And so on and so forth. There are a million different reasons why it's the strategy to use.
And yet it only takes one of said reasons for the kill to be the best one to be made.

My point from the ramble on MD theory being.
Most players in the game would, as scum, be smart enough to know that "proof of past threat = need to eliminate, before past threat becomes present again", more or less.

So I stand by Yuurei/Nibbui being killed for their

early

content, not the later content.

[mastina]

Mastina, would you wagon GE with me? Pin expressed interest too. I think that’s the correct first wagon today.

I would indeed, but there's no such thing as a "correct first wagon".

Because if there's more than one wagon, it is automatically incorrect.

There's only one correct wagon, and that is a unified lynch on scum without first having gone after town.

I will vote whichever of AnonymousGhost/Gamma Emerald has more support.

I feel like AnonymousGhost/Gamma Emerald are both linchpins of the scumteam, and my vote on AnonymousGhost is mostly because I feel like they value AnonymousGhost's life more than Gamma's--after all.

Even though Gamma may not have known I'd come out swinging on him, with his performance in a similar game exposed, he's smart enough to suspect his time in this game is likely limited. (Also, because if I

had

to say, Gamma is ever so slightly less likely to be scum than AnonymousGhost, but AnonymousGhost is like 98% whereas Gamma is something like 97.5% so they really are pretty much equivalent.)

[mastina]

Btw, for the record--if RC is town here, I'd expect him to be right on AT LEAST one of {Aster is town, Keyser is scum}, with the chance of being right on both (which would be pint as scum).

But I would vastly prefer we cross that bridge only if need be come to it. Legit think that the fastest path to victory is lynching one of AnonymousGhost/Gamma Emerald.

[Gamma Emerald]

Mastina's gambit

I think there's something odd about mastina's story. First, you claim that you were 70% confident that your role would be scum before replacing in. Assuming that you're not scum, you should believe your role to be a very bad NK target: why would the mafia want to kill scummy lynchbait?

Nevertheless, you "seemed" to be sufficiently scared of getting killed tonight that you wanted to already tell the mod about your reads so you could be like "I TOLD YOU SO" when you end up in the dead thread [1083]. However, your reads do not seem all that thorough at all—by your own statement, it is a "trash-tier, surface-level, quick one-minute VCA" [1073].

This really makes me wonder what made you feel so pressured to send your contributions to the mod. It couldn't have been the fear that the effort you spent tonight would be wasted in vain if the mafia were to kill you tonight, or some desire to protect your awesome reads from being wasted in any circumstance. In fact, the logic you state doesn't even make sense:

And if I did die, then that typed out message verbatim would be posted to the dead thread since I know northsidegal makes them in all games she mods. I wanted it written out as proof that, yes, I did have the reads which I would then claim to have had, for better or more likely for worse.

Provided that you were to get killed tonight and flip town, there would be nothing preventing you from posting you message verbatim in the dead thread yourself. It is not like "I got killed and flipped town" would give you any information that would make your reads less valuable.

Assuming mastina is scum

That, of course, is the story if you're town. On the other hand, suppose you're scum. Then your actions make sense for a confused scummer:

• As Volxen was a considerable lynch target, there may have been talks about considering nightkilling Volxen to prevent them from getting lynched tomorrow, planting the idea that you are a viable NK target.
  • Alternatively that didn't happen (because it'd be a stupid plan anyway), but you just forgot that from a town perspective you should think you were unlikely to be NK'ed.
• You subconsciously know that you would flip scum if killed, which would strongly impact the information available. This planted the idea that killing you would grant ample extra information and significantly decreasing the value of reads made without that information unless you could prove they were made during the night.
  
• There's clear motivation: scum wouldn't contact the mod with their reads, making what you supposedly did a town action, and you wanted to farm towncred. As bonus this explains why you went out of your way to tell us that your quick one-minute VCA happened during night.

Conclusion

Your whole story about making reads and contacting the mod about them looks like a LAMISTY gambit attempt to make yourself look town; when you wrote your story you were unable to distance yourself from your scum knowledge and gave motivations that don't even make sense for a townie.

VOTE: mastina

Hm?
While I dislike how mastina is playing like I’ve already flipped scum her conclusions don’t seem that wrong based on that premise.

[Gamma Emerald]

Btw, this fits Gamma's scum meta of...ironically, pulling up meta from nowhere.

Wow you know fucking NOTHING of my meta if you think THAT is my scum meta. I do that as both alignments, arguably MORE often as TOWN. Where the fuck do you get the idea you’re an authority on reading me in any sense?

[LolWagons]

I'm leaving out anything before Official start which is #94. GE Iso (Things in Parentheses could be debatable as to which category they fit best in) :

RQS: 99, 120, 303
Self-Defense: 104, 120, 123, 143, 212, 227, 323, 463, 593, 597, 605, 610, 946, 953, (1012), (1015), (1016), (1024), (1026), 1029,
Opinions w/out Substance: 106, (127), 148, 588, 712, 1097
Reads with Substance: 166, (311), 313
Non-Defensive Interaction with Others: 123, 129, (147), 158, 207, 240, 334, 464, [549, 564, 571, 573, 575, 581], 585, 632, 713, 781, 888, 891, 911, 913, 1003, 1010, 1046, 1062
Tangentially Game-Related or Filler: 124, 125, 126, 179, 213, 225, 267, 349, 466, 548, 638, 641, 749, 810, 910, 955, 957, 1032, 1044, 1048

Can't Tell?: 250, 613

What the fuck is 578 I can't decipher it.

You can go through these 1 by 1 if you wish but GE looks a lot like a player who is trying to look busy and look like he is having an impact without ever really throwing the hat in the ring. The breakdown in posting is:

33% Tangents/Fluff/Unexplained Reads
26% Self-Defense (I define this as not necessarily being defensive, but being overly concerned with the posturing of your slot with the town or subtly trying to posture)
4% RQS

So we are at about two-thirds mostly meaningless interaction in terms of driving the game forward. I want to note that everyone is allowed to defend themselves, but if you look at his ISO, he seems overly concerned about posturing and everyone's read on him.

The other 37% is reads with rationale and Non-Defensive Interaction With Others (But the vast majority of this -90% or so-is the latter).

Even within those posts (I highly recommend everyone read them, I basically distilled this ISO for you) there isn't a lot of meaningful interaction going on. the only parts of the ISO I really felt like were sincere attempts to drive conversation were the section in brackets, but I'm not as confident as I was that was town when I look through the rest of the ISO. I also find it odd that in one point of the game there was this groundswell of thought that Gamma was being useful and it seemed a bit ubiquitous for a while. Retroactively I don't see that.


Anyway, VOTE: GammaEmerald

This is a good way to go.

[LolWagons]

Pin, Mastina:

No take backsies. Wagon up.

[Clemency]

okay holy shit nvm you're all way too high intensity for me
i can't even bring myself to read all this

[LolWagons]

okay holy shit nvm you're all way too high intensity for me
i can't even bring myself to read all this

Just take my word for it and help me wagon Gamma

[LolWagons]

I used numbers and science.

[Clemency]

numbers AND science? next you're gonna tell me you used algorithms too

[LolWagons]

numbers AND science? next you're gonna tell me you used algorithms too

I’ll tell you what I need to for a wagon to get going lmfao

[Clemency]

i'll try and actually read this game and bring some actual reads in, we'll see then