Open 741: Red Flag [Endgame]

[Gamma Emerald]

I changed my mind, it's probably RC, mastina, Gamma and someone else, maybe Clem who's effing around.

I'm sorry guys but I'm replacing out, surgery has been a hell of a thing in my life right now and the intensity of mastina and Aster would be lovely if it wasn't for it. Also, my main motivation of playing this game was playing the worst since I'm playing some games and then I'm going back to my hiatus, and he left even before the game started. Too many replacements too (and I'm replacing out, *insert Palpatine's "ironic" meme*). And last but not least, I'm blacklisting RC if by any chance I join a new game

Really sorry NSG I did everything what I could to not do this on a game of yours, but if I keep playing it would be irresponsible for the sake of the game and for my health. See ya!

mod, I need to be replaced. Thanks!

So you think scum are bussing like crazy? lolmao

[Gamma Emerald]

@RC what's your case n pintu

[RadiantCowbells]

I'll give him a few hours to think about it first.

[RadiantCowbells]

Plus phone

[Gamma Emerald]

ok.

[pinturicchio]

There's nothing to think about, I already asked for my replacement. Stop addressing the replace out to redeem yourself. I shouldn't be commenting also, is against the rules I think.

[Gamma Emerald]

There's nothing to think about, I already asked for my replacement. Stop addressing the replace out to redeem yourself. I shouldn't be commenting also, is against the rules I think.

excuse me WHAT
Are telling to NOT try to get people to stop voting me? Screw off!

[pinturicchio]

I was talking to RC. UNVOTE: Gamma for the sake of it; my replacement will have a fresh start that way.

[Gamma Emerald]

lol ok
I can see that now. I'm just kinda pissy rn

[LolWagons]

Fucking shit y’all are dramatic. It’s a social game be less anti-social. I can only replace in to so many slots on the site.

[Clemency]

nah i live for drama this is great
wanna be archenemies, lolwagons

[RadiantCowbells]

this won't be today i'm exhausted and want to go to bed asap

[LolWagons]

nah i live for drama this is great
wanna be archenemies, lolwagons

Sure!

[Keyser Söze]

Going to re-read all my null/scum, null/town reads, starting with Clemency:

I feel like Clem has always played by his rules and pace. His ISO is full of: early blatant attempt to extend RVS, fluff posting, signs of being very conscious of his playstyle, lots of talking about himself and what he thinks about the gamestate, self-deprecating feels...

This is the quintessential Clem post:

i'm seriously concerned with the amount of lurk y'all are letting me get away with

It is pretty evident he doesn’t mind the focus being on himself.

It even took him til his 67th post to share his first articulated reads on Nibs, Aster and Volx

okay holy shit nvm you're all way too high intensity for me
i can't even bring myself to read all this

Clem keeps getting overwhelmed by gamestate atmosphere/player moods - has anyone played with Clem before? Is this alignment indicative?

Taking a step back from his ISO as a whole, his tone feels like a low WIM/low motivated townie, but I need to see Clem pro-actively sort the playerlist to deserve a more tangible town read. I feel like he’s a passenger. His thread energy fluctuates from excited puppy to pessimist. I think he needs to play more serious as he’s proving a difficult player to sort.


Ceejay next.

[mastina]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Mastina if you're wrong with this, my vote tomorrow will be parked on you. You are misreping the whole blackjack situation so if Gamma is town, I'm expecting you going for me tomorrow instead of the other players you have named and your scumread on me is poor, very poor. Your whole premise is how some players are related to Gamma

Well there's a lot wrong with this post, so I'm not sure where to begin. Hmm. I suppose I can sum it up this way:

One, if Gamma were in fact town, tomorrow would be lylo.

Two, I already explained my angle of approach on the Blackjack situation and have fully confessed that while I have not read the game proper and may in fact lack the relevant context, still feel that where I am coming from has merit.

Three, you are not the only one implicated by the "Blackjack situation"; in fact, far from it, you're only on the peripherals of it.

Four, you are not implicated

only

by the Blackjack situation; I have reasons beyond that for my suspicion on you.

Five, my scumread on you is in fact comparatively poor to my stronger scumreads--which is stupidly self-evident, because I have noted that you are not in fact one of said stronger scumreads. No fucking shit my scumread on you is poor compared to my scumread on, say, Gamma; that's because I am not at all as convinced.
And by that, I mean. The strength of the reasoning is directly correlated to the strength of the read. My reasoning on you is not as strong and I have stated as much; my read on you is not as strong and this is abundantly clear so frankly how you could ever think I am scumreading you to the same degree as Gamma baffles me since I was rather explicit about this.

Six, my scumreads are not in fact all dependent on Gamma flipping scum. The basis of my scumreads originate from a combination of sources. Admittedly--and I have previously confessed this fact--none of them in of themselves are damning, but I feel like collectively they do paint a picture. What are these sources?

1. First, VCA off of the end-of-D1-wagon, compared to the immediately previous VC which told me "no counterwagons, not exactly a flash-deadline lynch".
   
2. Second, reading pages 43, 42, 41, and 40 in that order.
   
3. Third, reading Gamma's iso. (And having been exposed to a VAST number of his games as both alignments, yes, I actually DO consider myself something of an expert as his meta; I may be literally the only one on site who can consistently read him correctly.)
   
4. Fourth, reading Meme Men's iso and AnonymousGhost's iso.
   
5. Fifth, reading the iso of Springtrap, who could have been lynched to silence a voice that had competency hidden within.
   
6. Sixth, reading the early half of Nibbui's iso, the half of the iso which I value more off of personal meta experience with Yuurei.

Individually, none of these are strong.

Collectively, I feel that they are more than reasonable enough a basis for my suspicions to lie where they are. NKA, VCA, some isos which're admittedly out of context, and then adding in some posts which are fully

in

context.

Frankly for someone who said that this was a zero-effort game and that she wasn't going to give it much in the way of serious scumhunting, that's as good as it gets especially in such a short timeframe.

Hm? While I dislike how mastina is playing like I’ve already flipped scum her conclusions don’t seem that wrong based on that premise.

Btw, this fits Gamma's scum meta of...ironically, pulling up meta from nowhere.

Wow you know fucking NOTHING of my meta if you think THAT is my scum meta. I do that as both alignments, arguably MORE often as TOWN. Where the fuck do you get the idea you’re an authority on reading me in any sense?

Anyone care to point out the problem with these two posts back to back?

Pin, Mastina: No take backsies. Wagon up.

Sure thing!
VOTE: Gamma Emerald.

i can't even bring myself to read all this

Do you want me to give a highlight reel, or do you want to just vote Gamma and assume the highlight reel would be convincing enough?

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m aware those look rather jarring when out together like that lol
But you posting that you thought that was my meta changed my outlook
Now how about you answer the damn question?

[mastina]

are these unusually confident reads for you, or do you always do this?

Complicated, not a yes-or-no question, and the only way to address it is to talk about non-game stuff. In short, answer's irrelevant to the game,

Spoiler: ...But if you insist on having an answer......

The answer is both yes, and no.
I wrote an article explaining half of the concept, and never finished my article explaining the other half.
The article I wrote explaining one half of this is Possibilities versus Probabilities.

In there, I basically explain how always, I am at war with myself.
At every single second.
I am imagining every single possible possibility.
You may think that's not possible; there's a ton of possibilities. With 4/10 players as scum, there are...how many unique combos? Is it as simple as 400? But no matter what the exact number, there's a lot.

So I couldn't possibly calculate them all, every second, right?

Except I do, and I do it even when not at the keyboard.
At work.
When eating.
When taking a shower.
At all times I think of the game, I am considering every single possible outcome.
For instance, at the most extreme: "What if every single one of my townreads were in fact the scumteam?"

I run through these, every second.
With every piece of new information, I run through them again. And again. And again.

Paranoia is crippling.
Doubt is overwhelming.
I never know what my reads are.
I can never truly be certain of them, because every time I feel good, suddenly, a new thought crops up and makes me think I could be wrong again.

Thus, the concept of probabilities.

I had to install a filter to function in games. Even if the correct combination is deemed a possibility rather than probability and thus tossed out, it was inherently a necessary move for me to be able to be of

any

use in a game. I weigh the scenarios, and put active thought into sorting them, off of what I know.

Some become less likely than others; others become more likely.

And while I can rarely if ever narrow in on the exact correct one, I can get closer to the correct one. Just by sifting through with the filter, discarding the ones which look unlikely and violate occam's razor, and accepting the ones which are simpler, make more sense, fit the facts better, and overall just "feel" like they're the case.

That is the balance of possibilities, and probabilities; the probabilities are the town player's friend, and the possibilities are the enemy.

But there's a second half to that, the unpublished result of this philosophy.

I have to have a way to both advance the gamestate, and yet be able to step back and reevaluate when necessary.

This is what I refer to as the "Theory of Pushing", in my notes, with the basic philosophy of...

"I need to push, and push HARD".

I push the probabilities I see, and push them hard. I keep pushing them, and pushing them--until I am no longer certain they are probabilities, until I think that instead of a probability, they are just a possibility. (Okay, small break from my ramble for a game note.)

(So you don't have to click the spoiler, for this

game-relevant content

, to restate: "I push the probabilities I see, and push them hard. I keep pushing them, and pushing them--until I am no longer certain they are probabilities, until I think that instead of a probability, they are just a possibility." This is game-relevant, because this is in the process of happening with RC; it hasn't fully shifted yet, but it's at the point where I am certainly uncertain of it being a probability at the very least.)

Spoiler: ...But back to being non-game-relevant...

This leads to the perception that I am arrogant, or at the very least, overconfident. I seemingly get confirmation bias, apparently--allegedly--never reevaluating, keeping my push going on the same targets.

But I am doing so for a very good reason. Because I am always, at every turn. Looking to be proven wrong. At every turn, I am reevaluating. And while most of the time, I reevaluate and go, "You know...I still feel the same way I did before.", sometimes, I really

do

shift my opinion.

I push, and push, and state things as absolutes even if they are not, because when I am doing so, I am advancing the gamestate, in my own unique way. The interactions I generate can be just as useful if not more, than my original push. Seeing how people react to my push can be just as valuable a thing as seeing how my target responds to the push.

It's altogether a way of trying to make the most out of uncertainty and doubt, of crippling bipolar shifts between extremes of doubt and certainty.

So yes, I am always confident, but no; I am never actually confident.
Yet the two don't contradict.

In the case of this game, I would say the best answer I have to give you is thus:
I am as sure as I can be,

given who I am

, that Gamma Emerald and AnonymousGhost are scum.
You won't get better than that in any game I ever play in.

[mastina]

So you think scum are bussing like crazy? lolmao

Well actually......

Going to re-read all my null/scum, null/town reads, starting with Clemency:
I feel like Clem has always played by his rules and pace. His ISO is full of: early blatant attempt to extend RVS, fluff posting, signs of being very conscious of his playstyle, lots of talking about himself and what he thinks about the gamestate, self-deprecating feels...
This is the quintessential Clem post:

i'm seriously concerned with the amount of lurk y'all are letting me get away with

It is pretty evident he doesn’t mind the focus being on himself.
It even took him til his 67th post to share his first articulated reads on Nibs, Aster and Volx

okay holy shit nvm you're all way too high intensity for me
i can't even bring myself to read all this

Clem keeps getting overwhelmed by gamestate atmosphere/player moods - has anyone played with Clem before? Is this alignment indicative?

Taking a step back from his ISO as a whole, his tone feels like a low WIM/low motivated townie, but I need to see Clem pro-actively sort the playerlist to deserve a more tangible town read. I feel like he’s a passenger. His thread energy fluctuates from excited puppy to pessimist. I think he needs to play more serious as he’s proving a difficult player to sort.
Ceejay next.

So basically...you

resorted

your

null read

to be...
...Nulltown?

[mastina]

Now how about you answer the damn question?

You play in basically every game I read, sooooooooooooooooo.
I have fairly extensive history seeing you as every alignment.

[Gamma Emerald]

Have you actually tried to read me though? All that means nothing if you don’t practice.

[Keyser Söze]

So basically...you

resorted

your

null read

to be...
...Nulltown?

Yes.

[AnonymousGhost]

tomorrow would be lylo.

fun times

VOTE: Clemency

[LolWagons]

tomorrow would be lylo.

fun times

VOTE: Clemency

Ew what the fuck is that

[RadiantCowbells]

Pls just slow down and let me case pintu

[AnonymousGhost]

the fun zone that's what