Open 741: Red Flag [Endgame]

[LolWagons]

It’s like if I’ve had shitty work performance for a month and I tell my boss my dog died last week.

It’s like, okay, that explains last week but what about the three before it?

Then I’m all “oh damn don’t get wrapped up in semantics”

[Gamma Emerald]

Tbh I’m now starting to look at other things and I’m curious whether anyone has an idea of why Nibbyi died?

Also, input on this? Or are you not going to engage me when I’m finally doing something other than defending myself?

[LolWagons]

Okay I missed the point of what you were trying to say then. I was talking about why that was pretty much the only thing I’d been doing today.

Then you didn’t really read the case on you, because the vast majority of that was from Day 1. Even though you said it wasn’t worth refuting. Idk what to tell you or where to take the convo from here.

[LolWagons]

Tbh I’m now starting to look at other things and I’m curious whether anyone has an idea of why Nibbyi died?

Also, input on this? Or are you not going to engage me when I’m finally doing something other than defending myself?

Makes CeeJay look bad if you look at the last few ISO posts.

[LolWagons]

Normally I try not to do much night kill analysis because PRs confound that.

But without PRs here and with mafia only getting one lynch of their own before the next one is a loss, there might be more merit in examining Night kills.

[Gamma Emerald]

Mhm yeah, on top of flaking out that does reflect poorly on him
How was Nibbui being read EoD1 because if they were widely townread that lowers the likelihood of that being why they were killed

[Gamma Emerald]

Normally I try not to do much night kill analysis because PRs confound that.

But without PRs here and with mafia only getting one lynch of their own before the next one is a loss, there might be more merit in examining Night kills.

So why not discuss it earlier?

[LolWagons]

Normally I try not to do much night kill analysis because PRs confound that.

But without PRs here and with mafia only getting one lynch of their own before the next one is a loss, there might be more merit in examining Night kills.

So why not discuss it earlier?

Not to be a dick, but why didn’t you?

As a sign of good faith, my reason:

Night kill analysis left a bad taste in my mouth in my most recent completed game.

I led the lynch on mafia D1 and D2. Managed to live until day three and the last mafia killed the guy who was defending him hardest. I thought for sure he was town.

Luckily watcher caught him. Even after the report I was reluctant to believe it.

[LolWagons]

Point is if I had just looked at interactions I probably would have had him as my second or third lynch instead of my strongest town read.

[LolWagons]

Mhm yeah, on top of flaking out that does reflect poorly on him
How was Nibbui being read EoD1 because if they were widely townread that lowers the likelihood of that being why they were killed

I’m on mobile now but I think the general consensus was that Nibbui was kind of town. It’s been a few days since my initial read through but I think that’s where I landed. I was mildly but not overly surprised by the night kill.

[Blackjacks]

nibbui was like the only obvtown player who was doing stuff, why

wouldn't

he be killed?

[Blackjacks]

So for a vote in what iirc was pre-game, I’m somehow scum? What the actual fuck.

what my post was trying to convey is that I think it's scummy that you didn't comment on rc's meta case on me

[LolWagons]

Eh. I’m probably off to sleep soon.

Don’t think BJ or Key (as frustrating as our play style difference is) are mafia so today was the most productive day so far. What a slog though, y’all need fire in your belly.

[Gamma Emerald]

So for a vote in what iirc was pre-game, I’m somehow scum? What the actual fuck.

what my post was trying to convey is that I think it's scummy that you didn't comment on rc's meta case on me

Okay
I recall thinking it made sense

[RadiantCowbells]

I am sorry Penguin but you replaced into the wrong slot.

Spoiler: Ruru read

At the beginning of the game Pintu agrees with Keyser that Ruru was artificially trying to express towntells, so trajectory is initially leaning scum
That randomly 180s based on nothing and he says even if [something that basically makes her scum] is true she's still town, which is a strange thing to say.
Following that at no point is a reason given for her being town: he cites 721 as meta of her not power playing which is utterly incomparable to this game, and argues that her being absent is NAI without arguing for why it makes her town. All he goes off is tone and gut and given that Ruru was completely unlike she had ever played on this site before, that doesn't make sense. As it happens he was right and Ruru was town but how did he know at the time? Also, if he was town and townread her why would he care if he was seen as SvS with her?

You don't want to vote your friend. idc. just stop talking about it. go vote whatever lynchbait catches your fancy and maybe it'll flip scum.

Again, you're underestimating me. What makes you think I'm not voting ruru only because she's my friend? I gave you the reasons why I'm townreading her.

His defense of Ruru the entire game felt like he was just refusing to vote her because of positive personal feelings about her because it literally didn't make sense, but I don't think that's the case. I think it was just a straight up TMI read and Nibbul thought so too but more on that later.

Spoiler: Push on me

When he initially goes onto me the reasons given are as follows:

Why? You got your anti town share pretty high right now. Am I a bad player if I think you could be scum?

Saying things like "if blackjack flips town, lynch me"; clogging the thread with multiposting and whining because no one is following you; defending a player with almost no content to get a read from him whatsoever and giving almost no reasons to why such a strong defense is going on. All those things are anti town.

At no point does he call me scum. At no point does he suggest scum motivation. He explicitly calls me

anti-town

instead of scum. His call outs are for things that are against the 'good little townie' grain but without any reason I'd be doing them as scum, nor does he call me scum at any point, nor anyone else for that matter. Another example:

Without looking at his ISO, I can't recall anything useful coming from Spring, and that's not good. I mean, Clem has done anything either, but at least I remember he has been shitposting all along. Spring? Nothing, not a single thing about him. Usually, I try to focus on a group of players first to see if I can sort them out and leave some slots for lates. I'm only giving Spring a pass 'cause he's one of those "later" players, but in a 4:9 setup, I'm more inclined to believe he's part of the 4 and not the 9.

Never calls anyone scum except very indirectly, and all the things that he calls people out for are strictly anti-town versus scummy. (though lurking can be both at least)

I like volxen's posting right now. I'm now happier with my vote on RC. Include TMI to everything I said before about him.

He then calls me out for a TMI read on Volxen that's essentially no different than his read on Ruru: if he was town who had had that ruru read, why would he scumread my Volxen read? It heavily reads like projecting and he even lampshades that by,

after nibbul points it out

, comparing my actions to his in 725 but more on that later.

Spoiler: Voting/scumread patterns

Let's talk about his Springtrap read which he says extremely little about

One last thing before leaving:
VOTE: Springtrap
I'm townreading Nibbui and trusting you on this, Growlithe.

There are four scumbags here guys, if you town yourself up this should be easy enough, we already have some associations. For example, I have nothing on spookycat, but I'm pretty sure he's scum with Springtrap. So can we lynch Springtrap and confirm my gut? That would obvtown Gamma too

Wait, Keyzer already hammered Springtrap so we'll have more info tomorrow about wagons and stuff.

@ruru spookycat and Aster's reluctancy on going on Springtrap's wagon by voting each other could back up that theory, but I think it's a pretty long shot.

First off: note him explicitly offloading responsibility for his vote onto Firebringer's slot
Second off: calling spookycat scum, but scum WITH springtrap, but not actually being willing to vote spookycat. Also the entire spookycat thing in the first place. Note the 'confirmation' of Gamma town off of a flip that wasn't going to happen.
Third off: does "so we'll have more info tomorrow about wagons and stuff" sound like town talking about someone that they think is going to flip scum?

And talking about pawning off responsibility for his votes:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Mastina if you're wrong with this, my vote tomorrow will be parked on you. You are misreping the whole blackjack situation so if Gamma is town, I'm expecting you going for me tomorrow instead of the other players you have named and your scumread on me is poor, very poor. Your whole premise is how some players are related to Gamma

If he thinks that Mastina is misrepping and their premise is flawed, why is he voting with them then threatening to vote them the next day?

Spoiler: Why nibbul was killed

Then let's talk about the nightkills ISO because it's actually extremely juicy!

Note that although Clemency was his late day push most of the day phase was spent by Nibbui pushing Pinturichio

Pintu, help me here sort this out, but for me it seems like you really had something against BlackJacks in 185 for their big post, very close to a scum read, however after us debating it a little and not thinking it's a big deal, you say in 233 that you would still townread BlackJacks even if you did believe in their post being made beforehand.

My point is that I kinda don't feel that how you adressed BJ in 185 comes from someone that genuinely believes her to be towny in a general sense.

Am I wrong somewhere?

Pintu, you're kinda getting too defensive with me again...

MEMEMEN might be questioning you about the veracity of your read, however I was questioning your thought process behind your actions, that for now had been your read/discussion on Ruru. That's not the same thing and I would appreciate if you didn't put us together in a little nice box .

About the statement "overconfident ruru = town ruru" I don't know, but what I observed in Ruru's scum game while reading today, was that she was very argumentative and always engaged in discussion opposed to what we've been seeing here: a more non-serious Ruru and not-so-engaged Ruru. I was curious though wondering wheter she could have changed her scum meta but...maybe not...

Well, let's keep going

A few more where that came from

I would say I don't like Pintu defending Ruru this hard when even if you say that you are reading her off tone, she has mostly only memed this game.

Again, also calls him out for the TMI read on Ruruslot

I don't think it's a good theory in this moment though, WIFOM from the get-go usually isn't helpful, right now It doesn't feel like you're Ruru's partner, it just felt a bit unnatural for you to come so strongly in her defense, it remembers a bit of you defending a townie in Jungle Replubic without consenting to any points from the opposite side (I think it was Skitter?). Anyway, I don't know much of your play but I'm feeling a different Pintu than what I saw in Open 720 and am surprised, although I haven't read the game completely.

also calls out the fact that he has explicitly hard white knighted townies as scum before and this game reads a lot like that game from Pintu's side

Yeah, maybe it's that.

I guess I'm just taken aback you sounded for me more similar to Open 725 than Open 720 but it's been 4 months you haven't played at all. Seems reasonable and I hope that if we're town I can get to town read you and work together.

To keep going on with the chat, I might as well say that I to let people talk about themselves.

Pintu, do you think that you're with a different mindset in this game than you were in Open 720?

If it's something you changed consciously, why you did so?

also thinks that this reads a lot more like his scum game, etc

Unfortunately he drops focus on Pintu at some point but never expressed a read change and I feel like these interactions are the reason he got shot

[RadiantCowbells]

As for partners

Anonymousghost being one seems really obvious based on the whole having a nickname for her (more communication than what was in this game) and the way he calls her scum but doesn't push them

Gamma/Lolwagons/RC/Blackjack/Aster all town

Mastina prooobably town but not 100%, not going to lynch them though due to the structure of this setup
so 1 or 2 out of 5 of [clemency, keyser, anonyghost, pintu, ceejay] are town with rest scum,

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Pinturicchio

[RadiantCowbells]

as it happens I'm thinking more and more that Mastina's 50/50 scumpool and the whole half-baked push on me that she didn't make go anywhere was just scum

so like

anonyghost/mastina/pintu/xx? probably ceejay tbh

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean i'm not like surprised if she's town ftr

[RadiantCowbells]

i guess if anonyghost gets killed we're all still alive to sort out tomorrow anyway

if not she's the de facto lynch so

[AnonymousGhost]

u would think I'd be today's guaranteed lynch with all these people who are scum reading/associative reading me to all these other people cause there's probs a near majority on me already

mastina, RC, lolwagons, gamma, and maybe aster if she still has it from d1

but not really.

you'd think: all these peeps would have a light bulb moment and reach a consensus on someone who's getting scum read to a point of lynchqbility and possibly get one step closer to winning while simultaneously putting off LyLo

in reality: yeah. that's not happening and we have all these weird side lynches which could be associatives to me rather than the other way around in some peeps' cases

[Gamma Emerald]

u would think I'd be today's guaranteed lynch with all these people who are scum reading/associative reading me to all these other people cause there's probs a near majority on me already

mastina, RC, lolwagons, gamma, and maybe aster if she still has it from d1

but not really.

you'd think: all these peeps would have a light bulb moment and reach a consensus on someone who's getting scum read to a point of lynchqbility and possibly get one step closer to winning while simultaneously putting off LyLo

in reality: yeah. that's not happening and we have all these weird side lynches which could be associatives to me rather than the other way around in some peeps' cases

Oof yeah that’s something to consider
I want to vote AG but I’m given pause by this being kinda bold
I’m not too familiar with AG meta, are they the type to call themselves out like this as scum?

[AnonymousGhost]

the only one who might be familiar with my meta is RC

and the last time he tried to meta me in BlazBlue he was wrong

so

go look at Open 715 if u want to see my scum meta

[Gamma Emerald]

is open 707 bad meta on you

[AnonymousGhost]

coincidentally that game was White Flag lolol