Open 742: C9++ (Game Over)

[Gamma Emerald]

Why no lynch? That’s actually awful spec.
VOTE: Almost50
You’re above that level of screw-up. This is scum!you trying to feed bullshit to everyone.

[Almost50]

Are you daft? I explained in details what I thought about each and every scenario, and I haven't even voted either way yet. Why is it scum motivated to lay all the cars on the table when i could just lay low like everyone else is and play for time?

[Almost50]

Gamma, are you the Serial Killer?? Cuz it sure is devastating to the SERIAL KILLER IN PARTICULAR that we no lynch. They need people to die QUICK, and the longer it takes the less likely they could win.

[Almost50]

In fact;

VOTE: Gamma

This doesn't make sense coming from you in particular. In this player list you're literally the last one to fail to see where I'm coming from, and especially so when I have laid down all the details to the tiniest one of them.

[Gamma Emerald]

You’re arguing we lynch the SK then no lynch. If we lynch SK and mafia get a kill off tonight it’s Lylo. So NL loses the game. I seriously doubt you wouldn’t know this so you arguing a seriously flawed plan makes me think you’re scum.

[Almost50]

@Mafia: Even if I get lynched, it'd be 3-2-1. You shooting Gamma here is optimal play for you (and for Town). It results in either 3-1-0 or 2-2-0 depending on whom he shoots. 50% Chance that Mafia wins tonight and 50% Town has a better chance to win.

If Mafia shoots someone else (Town, because they wouldn't shoot themselves) it could be 2-1-1 or 1-2-1. First option is still good for MAFIA because they know whom to shoot the next night, but TOWN should definitely No Lynch in that case, and hope SK will shoot Mafia too. 1-2-1 is a Mafia win already, but what's your guarantee that he will be shooting Town tonight?

In other words, would you rather be in a 3-1 or a 2-1-1?? It's as simple as that.

[Almost50]

You’re arguing we lynch the SK then no lynch. If we lynch SK and mafia get a kill off tonight it’s Lylo. So NL loses the game. I seriously doubt you wouldn’t know this so you arguing a seriously flawed plan makes me think you’re scum.

No. I am arfuing we Lynch SK

or

No Lynch today.

[Almost50]

You're stupid, but I still can't see how you misunderstood what I was saying.

I laid down all possible scenarios for TODAY. Lynch SK, Lynch Mafia, Lynch Town and No Lynch. All for TODAY.

4-2-1 >> Lynch SK
4-2-1 >> Lynch Mafia
4-2-1 >> Lynch Town
4-2-1 >> No Lynch

Now help me understand how anyone could misunderstand when I clearly started from a 4-2-1 situation in all 4 scenarios.

[Clemency]

crikey

[TTTT]

@Clem - can you give a legit read on A50 plz?
it's time to take the game seriously

[TTTT]

does anybody wanna hear a Hitler joke?
Fair warning it's not very funny.

[Gamma Emerald]

You’re arguing we lynch the SK then no lynch. If we lynch SK and mafia get a kill off tonight it’s Lylo. So NL loses the game. I seriously doubt you wouldn’t know this so you arguing a seriously flawed plan makes me think you’re scum.

No. I am arfuing we Lynch SK

or

No Lynch today.

Then I read it wrong.
UNVOTE:

[Gamma Emerald]

Wait.

UNVOTE:

4-2-1 >> Lynch SK >> 4-2 >> 1 NK >> 3-2-0 LyLo (solid. No ifs)
4-2-1 >> Lynch Mafia >> 4-1-1 >> 2 NKs >> 2-1-1/3-0-1/3-1-0/4-0-0 (very swingy) 3 chances put of 4
4-2-1 >> Lynch Town >> 3-2-1 >> 2 NKs >> 1-2-1/2-1-1/2-2-0/3-1-0 (almost guaranteed Town Loss) 1 chance in 4
4-2-1 >> No Lynch >> 4-2-1 >> 2 NKs >> 2-2-1/3-1-1/3-2-0/4-1-0 we still can win on all 4 scenarios. although 2-2-1 is hard

So, our best shot is to Lynch the SK

followed by

No Lynch then Mafia lynch, but we cannot afford to mislynch.

I still think you are the SK, but I see now you could be Mafia trying to get on SK's good side, or Town who just counts on having Town solidarity in a 4 players MyLo.

I misread this as a sequence of events, not a order of preference.

[TTTT]

I'll admit I don't know why this...
4-2-1 >> Lynch Mafia >> 4-1-1 >> 2 NKs >> 2-1-1/3-0-1/3-1-0/4-0-0 (very swingy) 3 chances out of 4

is strictly worse than this...
4-2-1 >> Lynch SK >> 4-2 >> 1 NK >> 3-2-0 LyLo (solid. No ifs)

if we put expected values on each of these:
2-1-1 = 0 wins
3-0-1 = .5 wins
3-1-0 = .5 wins
4-0-0 = 1.0 wins
average = .5 wins

3-2-0 = .5 wins

I mean we could argue the expected values...
but at this point I'm out of my element

[Almost50]

@TTTT: You'd notice I unvoted you in that post because I realized where I miscalculated.

But still, if we lynch the GF then 3-1-0 becomes a zero chance. The Mafia RB will almost certainly shoot Gnelf in that particular case. This also means 4-0-0 is a zero chance. So it really is 2-1-1 or 3-0-1.

Obviously nobody's looking further than their own noses though. Everyone wants all the work done for them and then explained in details.

[Clemency]

@Clem - can you give a legit read on A50 plz?
it's time to take the game seriously

i honestly cant tell for the life of me

[Clemency]

i'm just happy to be part of this joyous experience we're sharing today

[Clemency]

peace love and positivity y'all

[Clemency]

though my gut tells me a50 vs gamma is mafia vs sk rn

[PenguinPower]

Thank you. Finally an outside opinion.

Next up, 0verki11.

[Gnelf]

clem-a50 i think are both scum

but me pp loyal servant

[TTTT]

I think you all know I'm down to lynch A5, Clem, or overkill
and have been pretty much SRing them since my first reads

so the rest of you (PP, Gamma, Gelf) decide who and when from that list and I'm good

[Almost50]

I think you all know I'm down to lynch A5, Clem, or overkill
and have been pretty much SRing them since my first reads

And that is part of my problem with you. You entered the game and declared some reads and then those reads never changed regardless. It doesn't matter to you who votes whom or who gets kills (and I find it overly amusing that the kills follow your read list). You have NO DOUBT that Gamma could be Scum when Gnelf wasn't RB'd on N1 and all the other 4 on his proclaimed check list have flipped. 3 were Town and one was a GOON. Did Scum want their goon to get caught without having anything to gain from risking it?? Yet, that's never of your concern.

[Almost50]

clem-a50 i think are both scum

but me pp loyal servant

As for you, Oka... I dunno what to say. I just want to congratulate Mafia/SK (whoever wins this). I now know 100% Gamma F'd up in that previous game when he decided to kill you. You should have been the one to take to LyLo instead of DVa/Nako.

[TTTT]

This was my original lis, A5, so virtually none of what you just said in 1122 makes sense.

i think we find scum here:
Egix
Clem
Overkill
RoS
A50
(in no particular order)

least confident about A50 and Clem