Mini Normal 2046: Autumn's Farewell [Endgame]

[mbaki]

Still prefer mbaki lynch to vorkuta, though revelations are interesting. We can lynch vorkuta tomorrow.

As to why because you guys are going to ask.

mbaki's self vote pushes it over the edge for me. The difference between mbaki selfvoting and your typical rage!town self-voter is that mbaki isn't the type of player who self-votes, based on what he said about yyotta. Either he was lying about his opinion on yyotta or he was manufacturing rage. pick whatever reason you want, mbaki is the scummier player.

? Oka are you scum ?

the revelations looks on my end like a smoking gun

your case on mbaki seems dubious at best

I did have this thought initially too.

It seems like as close to a guilty as you can get from traitor crumbs on Vorkuta. But, I slept on it, and naw, I think Oka's just tunneled and not experienced enough to reevaluate. There are lots of great players that are still lacking in that category, such as Moth and RadiantCowbells.

[mbaki]

I don't know if I actually believe that you'd want to play with Creature.

I would never want to roll scum with Creature. Otherwise, he's an enjoyable presence.

[mbaki]

So I'm trying to figure out if rb's posting towards mbaki is too blatant to be actual crumbing, but...maybe rb assumed he wouldn't be dying soon enough for it to matter?

Perhaps, though considering traitor can't endgame, I don't think expecting to live until the end is good play.

wow actually scummy imo. For real this actually does sound like trying to subtly ask rb if he's the traitor but... if that's the case, Vorkuta never shoots rb. I kinda think that if rb was shot by a vig and not town, they need to claim because if that's what happened I think it's likely Vorkuta is scum. If not, I think I'd lean mbaki.

You can apply the exact same thing to me; rb's crumbs are damn obvious to me (roleplaying here), that is not something I would miss and especially so with the attention I was already paying to him. It is a continuum because the more obvious the traitor is the less sense it makes for scum to kill them. This was the sole thing holding me back on Vorkuta, but I'm chalking it up to that happening early in the day and his inexperience led him to succumb to recency bias. Recency shows rb voting him and pushing for his lynch, combined with rb being a very widely townread player.

And this sounds like an intentional attempt to plant WIFOM after mbaki's flip. I hope I'm not just confirmation biasing here but it's like everything mbaki is posting since day start feels like scum. The point mbaki raises against Vorkuta on this page just makes so much sense though. But like I said if that's what happened there is absolutely no world where rb is Vorkutascum's NK. So yeah, I need to see a claim from a vig who shot rb in order to buy that. Vorkuta could still be scum who shot rb but that would mean he thought rb was crumbing a power role or something and not traitor. And actually the more I think about that, the more plausible it sounds.

This paragraph went from bad to good, but I would like you to consider the ridiculousness of that first sentence Especially because you've agreed with multiple of my points. And yes, they very well could have thought rb was crumbing a power role, since that is what he agreed to partially.

[Nero Cain]

naw. Oka can totally be scum here. I don't think his being against a Vork lynch since d1 means he can't not be scum. It actually makes a ton f sense to defend your scumbuddy in a game of two scum + traitor.

I'm also thinking that a red Vork makes both Suka and DDL town. Its simple (maybe too simple) but Vork has voted all of you (mbaki), KMD and Leo. There's a chance he hasn't voted his scum buddy.

With that logic, it would mean the last scum is in Varsoon, Creature, BrightEyedFish, OkaPoka.

Bright just doesn't seem that scummy to me. I could kinda see a scum Varsoon lurking it out and there's a part of me that thinks Varsoon lurking is his scumplay b/c I've lynched him several times as lurking scum but I feel like in the last few games he's been more aggressive as scum. Creature's content has always been poor and he's being a lurksack which is totally in line with his scumplay. I think we'll find the not Vork scum in Oka, Varsoon, Creature.

[OkaPoka]

Okay. I'm going to ask some follow ups.

Doing nothing like you did yesterday is not acceptable.

Clarify this?

[mbaki]

naw. Oka can totally be scum here. I don't think his being against a Vork lynch since d1 means he can't not be scum. It actually makes a ton f sense to defend your scumbuddy in a game of two scum + traitor.

I'm also thinking that a red Vork makes both Suka and DDL town. Its simple (maybe too simple) but Vork has voted all of you (mbaki), KMD and Leo. There's a chance he hasn't voted his scum buddy.

With that logic, it would mean the last scum is in Varsoon, Creature, BrightEyedFish, OkaPoka.

Bright just doesn't seem that scummy to me. I could kinda see a scum Varsoon lurking it out and there's a part of me that thinks Varsoon lurking is his scumplay b/c I've lynched him several times as lurking scum but I feel like in the last few games he's been more aggressive as scum. Creature's content has always been poor and he's being a lurksack which is totally in line with his scumplay. I think we'll find the not Vork scum in Oka, Varsoon, Creature.

Your first paragraph is part of why I suspect Suka. I agree with you Fish, DDL, and Kmd are probably town. I have no clue as to Leodanny's alignment, but sure. I agree with the general places you're looking, this is a talk for tomorrow though.

Clarify this?

Nothing to clarify. I don't believe you made much of an impact yesterday, and I was being an ass in how I worded it because of a mix of game annoyance and out of game stress. You have a high post count, but I don't believe you did much constructive posting yesterday.

[OkaPoka]

Yeah so my question is how do you quantify/check how much someone has done? Personally I felt like I did more than enough yesterday, so you calling me out feels kinda weird, you know what I mean?

[Nero Cain]

Am I constructive?!?

[OkaPoka]

In fact I'm requesting a list of people you thought played up to your standards of "constructive-ness" and "doing" yesterday.

[mbaki]

This level of activity is unacceptable.

This describes my thoughts. I don't think you're wrong for disapproving my saying that, but I think the level of player contribution this game is appalling.

Suka and Nero are the only ones whos activity really meets what I'd expect. I will say looking back on day 1 I saw OkaPoka posting lots so I might need to apologize for that.

But, and this sentence is mainly at Nero, it should be very telling that despite Creature's play feeling lurky and absent (I agree to an extent), he is still the third highest poster.

[OkaPoka]

suka?

S-U-K-A

SUKA?

what has she done that is constructive?

[OkaPoka]

and since you felt that so little people people were doing stuff yesterday

why call me out specifically?

[mbaki]

suka?

S-U-K-A

SUKA?

what has she done that is constructive?

Suka's posting was consistent from what I remember. She vocalized reads and pushes.

and since you felt that so little people people were doing stuff yesterday

why call me out specifically?

You were annoying me.

[Nero Cain]

I don't really feel like Suka is really doing things though....

[OkaPoka]

Explain to me how not reasoning out anything can be constructive.

Suka's the person who claims cases are scummy.

[mbaki]

Creature's reasoning on town Leo (51), his paranoia about rb slowly turning into a stronger townread (250, 545), his desire for more townreads (289), and his desire to interact in real time (547, 549), don't ever come from scum Creature. Why do you want to lynch him, Oka? And why don't you want to lynch Bright?

Awaiting meta citation requested above.

Take a look at the game Oka linked. Or just look at the ISO in this: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=77774

You not answering some of my questions and not providing more justification is non transparency.

I didn't answer your softball questions about whether I'm a newbie... If anything, that's a minor town tell; if I were scum, I could have easily played the newbie card to avoid getting wagon'd.

I said I'm happy to explain where I'm coming from. That's transparency, not non-transparency. What I'm refusing is "justification" (i.e. "rhetorically proving the validity of what I'm saying for the purpose of making myself seem towny").

Your reads and calling of scumteams/pairs that early and then following up on it is too confbiasy to come from town.

I've changed my reads throughout the game in response to new information. That is the opposite of confirmation bias. If anyone is suffering from confirmation bias, it's Nero (and part of the reason I stopped voting him).

Sure playstyle turns it into a YMMV kinda thing, but I don't think it applies here.

Why doesn't "non-transparency playstyle" apply to me? Why do you think I'd be playing differently as town when you've never played with me before?

And so on. I am not arguing Suka's content is necessarily good and I've made the fact I think they are possible scum clear, but they pushed things and took stances, the basics of mafia.

[Kmd4390]

wow actually scummy imo. For real this actually does sound like trying to subtly ask rb if he's the traitor but... if that's the case, Vorkuta never shoots rb.

not sure if i agree here.
could be that vork got no information or simply forgot 181?

mbaki showed rb's reply to this and it's pretty hard to see that as no information if Vorkuta's post was in fact a traitor fishing post. And I'd be shocked if someone put a post like that out there, found the traitor, and then forgot about it.

kmd vote mbaki please

No. I'm still deciding. Why the hurry?

You can apply the exact same thing to me; rb's crumbs are damn obvious to me (roleplaying here), that is not something I would miss and especially so with the attention I was already paying to him. It is a continuum because the more obvious the traitor is the less sense it makes for scum to kill them. This was the sole thing holding me back on Vorkuta, but I'm chalking it up to that happening early in the day and his inexperience led him to succumb to recency bias. Recency shows rb voting him and pushing for his lynch, combined with rb being a very widely townread player.

The difference is that if Vorkuta's post was basically asking rb "are you the traitor", it shows that he was actively looking. I don't see anything that shows you actively looking. So it makes more sense that you'd accidentally kill your traitor than that Vorkuta would, especially considering that his actively looking was directed at rb. However, actively looking for a traitor would show knowledge that a traitor exists, so that's more of a point against Vorkuta than you. That's why this decision is hard. I can see either of you as scum depending on what angle I'm working out my logic from.

This paragraph went from bad to good, but I would like you to consider the ridiculousness of that first sentence Especially because you've agreed with multiple of my points. And yes, they very well could have thought rb was crumbing a power role, since that is what he agreed to partially.

Well the first sentence was my first impression of your post. But I do see where you are coming from and you've raised good points.

[mbaki]

it shows that he was actively looking. I don't see anything that shows you actively looking

I think all I have to say to this is: exactly, I wasn't looking. If I was scum, I would know there was a traitor to look for.

[Suka]

VOTE: Bright

[DrDolittle]

@kmd my thought against that is, vork thought process is wow imo rb could be traitor but rb has been pushing me hard all game day 1 nah I might be overthinking this let's kill him wow imo

[OkaPoka]

And so on. I am not arguing Suka's content is necessarily good and I've made the fact I think they are possible scum clear, but they pushed things and took stances, the basics of mafia.

Wait so suka isn't playing up to your standards of doing stuff or is? Because almost everyone has taken stances and pushed things. I don't think I'm understanding what you mean.
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No. I'm still deciding. Why the hurry?

idk. id feel more comfortable if mbaki had more votes. Is everyone else blind or am I?
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I guess this means I stand alone on mbaki.

[DrDolittle]

Probably worthwhile to revisit early and end of day 1. Who else was traitor hunting?? That's like scum number 1 objective and must be leaking into the posts

[OkaPoka]

I still think vorkuta is more likely to flip scum than not fwiw but mbaki should be first (he's more likely to do so)

We should also not do the "it's one or the other." This could be a double bus gambit. They both can be scum.

If we really walk down the vorkuta path, mbaki should not be off the table for tomorrow.

[Kmd4390]

@kmd my thought against that is, vork thought process is wow imo rb could be traitor but rb has been pushing me hard all game day 1 nah I might be overthinking this let's kill him wow imo

Still feels risky from his point of view. Anyone who you have a thought about being traitor is someone you avoid killing just in case they are. Seems like he'd just pick someone else that makes zero sense as a traitor, especially on N1.

[mbaki]

idk. id feel more comfortable if mbaki had more votes. Is everyone else blind or am I?

I was at l-2 before Suka voted Bright (lol?).

Wait so suka isn't playing up to your standards of doing stuff or is? Because almost everyone has taken stances and pushed things. I don't think I'm understanding what you mean.

That's okay. It isn't important.

@kmd my thought against that is, vork thought process is wow imo rb could be traitor but rb has been pushing me hard all game day 1 nah I might be overthinking this let's kill him wow imo

Still feels risky from his point of view. Anyone who you have a thought about being traitor is someone you avoid killing just in case they are. Seems like he'd just pick someone else that makes zero sense as a traitor, especially on N1.

You've already answered this yourself though.