Mini Normal 2046: Autumn's Farewell [Endgame]

[Suka]

Your reads are pretty bad, mbaki. Is that normal?

[mbaki]

Your shading is pretty obvious, Suka. Is that normal?

You can't call my reads bad yet. There are two scum left, and I tried to do Fish or Vork over YYotta. If I recall every player townread rb.

[mbaki]

I don't feel too strongly its a scum flip either, but I don't feel great about Dr lynch and there is no way in

hell

scum is ever resolving YYotta for us. Even if we have a cop, who clears her, then we have a cleared directly anti-town slot. I'd much much rather a cleared (or guiltied) Varsoon or KMD.

I also think she should likely be banned from playing with her level of trolling, but this isn't my home site so not my problem.

I do not feel like hammering this. Still not a townread, persay, but icky wagon.

I would rather any of YYotta / Vorkuta / BigFishEyes today. I will hammer this lynch in about 20 hours from this post if it is necessary though.

VOTE: BrightEyedFish

his top scum read.

no

If DR is scum, perhaps. If not, I made the best play possible by lynching the gamethrowing slot over somebody playing with 20 hours left.

Remember how you were "already going to vote me" today and then moved your vote and have pushed multiple other slots? What was that about, and why did it change?

[BrightEyedFish]

Is anyone willing to hammer vork?

[Creature]

What time is it?




Time for a Varsoon prod!

[Dannflor]

Is anyone willing to hammer vork?

btw i thought it through and im ok with hammering.

We have four days though. Varsoon has gotta post.

I don't want to lynch Varsoon. If we aren't lynching Bright, can we lynch kmd?

Do you have anything more to say on the Vorkuta lynch since that's clearly where the day is headed, or are you going to continue to be unhelpful?

[Creature]

We have four days though. Varsoon has gotta post.

Not if the mod will let him not post until January 5th

[Dannflor]

Why did DDL hesitate on Vork then?

UNVOTE:
need2think

Scum 99.8 percent on the lynch block does not claim VT? Do they?

Maybe I'm over thinking this.

If you know you are gonna die, would you still claim VT as scum? Why not a hail Mary PR reaction test

i still feel uneasy though.

if vork flips town, then tomorrow it feels almost natural to push bef.
but as creature echoed, I can also see them both as town.

this potentially hints at scum pushing narratives around and lining up easy mislynches.

I dislike all of these posts, especially the last one, and it just feels like a way for DDL to make himself look better if Vorkuta flips town. Hate the admittance that it feels natural to push BEF but the addition of the wishy-washy "I could see him as town." The amount of hesitation based off only my intent to hammer and a VT claim doesn't feel real. It's a somewhat smart move for scum since they know looking at the people on Voruta's wagon will be the next step.

[OkaPoka]

fwiw I'm having second thoughts on vorkuta only because i read varsoon's iso and it looks sketchy so its kinda breaking my idea of mbaki/vorkuta because i think varsoon fits in there somewhere.

also when i saw ur hammer intent, i thought it was a fake intent just to get a claim

[OkaPoka]

i also think ddl is one of those people you have to push hard to actually get a good read out of them

[Dannflor]

also when i saw ur hammer intent, i thought it was a fake intent just to get a claim

Basically, but the claim was one of the only things stopping Vorkuta from being lynched, and when that happens DDL has a crisis suddenly? He's not risking anything as scum because the Vorkuta lynch is likely to go through anyways.

[OkaPoka]

i dunno

i think its kinda important to see that ddl might be empathizing here because he also claimed vt and if he is vt then he probs thinks that vt claims come from town

[Kmd4390]

Ok...

Starting with Page 59:
Dannflor and Oka mostly. Dann is obvtown and he replaced obvtown so that's good. I also see a lot of what he sees. The whole thing about Vorkuta never killing rb makes a lot of sense and is exactly what I said earlier. It just doesn't make sense that he makes that kill which is why Vorkuta is probably a bad lynch. However, that doesn't make mbaki scum. It seems like this day was set up in a way that one of the two needs to be lynched and that's probably a bad idea. Why does mbaki have to be scum? Oka keeps bringing up the self vote. Self voting is generally poor play regardless of alignment. It's usually an emotional reaction. It's usually not well thought out. The exception is when someone is trying to get townread, which isn't only done by scum. Oka seems to be arguing that this is what mbaki was doing. If he's right, it may be a point against mbaki, but I don't think it's as damning as Oka seems to think it is. The one thing I want to know though is why Oka's vote sat on Vorkuta during this whole exchange. Oh, and Dann's thoughts on Suka.

Page 60:

does really nobody see mbaki's rage buildup as fake ?

Not really. I see where it's possible it was, but I'm not leaning that way. I'm also not sure I'd call it rage so much as frustration.

__________

Creature, you said you're back to scumreading Drdoolittle. What prompted that exactly?

i guess the coaching idea would be off the table if day talk no exist

What about pregame and night chat? If I was scum with a new player, I'd be going all out giving them advice in the time given.

Page 61:
I don't get the whole preflipping argument. Oka, are we supposed to lynch town reads over scum reads because other people scum read them?

Drodoolittle:
I agree with this:

The argument against voting Vork literally boils down to "Vork does not make rb kill". Everything else on that slot looks p bad.

But not this:

Maybe he didn't realize; maybe he forgot; maybe he thinks, no way my traitor pushes that hard on me.

I just don't see how an interaction like that can be forgotten if he was really taking the time to search for a traitor like that. As for your point about allowing him in LYLO, there are only a handful of players I'd be somewhat comfortable seeing in LYLO in this game or hell any game in the last 6-8 years maybe. Even if that weren't true, Day 1 is the time to talk policy lynches.

_______________

Who would you like to have in LyLo?

What was the reason for asking this?

Page 62:
Creature, you asked why "mbaki confirmed scum" would be a crumb. That's kinda the post I was referring to when I asked if it was too obvious to be a crumb. But if it needs explaining, confirmed implies knowledge rather than just a read. If scum knows they are looking for a traitor, telling them "I know you are scum" can be read as "I know you are scum because I'm your traitor". That's the one thing that has me still feeling a little uneasy about mbaki. I think it means more than the self vote does.

Page 63/64:
I kinda think that the fact that rb couldn't be recruited makes it less likely he crumbed now that I think about it. It still helps avoid the NK, but if that's what he was doing it didn't work. Wouldn't it actually make more sense for him to town read his partners and not be seen as a threat to them? There's also the possibility that scum were thinking along those lines when making their kill which creates a brand of WIFOM that probably isn't worth entertaining. So it's probably best to look at day play rather than crumbs or NKA at this point.

Bright vs mbaki slap fest isn't game related so not much else to say on these two pages.

Page 65:
I should mention I'm feeling a lot better about Creature now than I was on Day 1. He's saying a lot of what I'm thinking. Being open to Vorkuta cases not involving rb is what made me think of it just now. He would have to not see rb's post as a crumb in order to NK him. Whether it was a crumb or not doesn't matter. It's all about what Vorkuta did or did not see and what the intent of his post before rb's was. I'm also coming around on the idea that Bright could be scum. Creature makes a good point that Bright's reads are all consensus reads and regardless of how Bright presents those reads, it's still true that they ARE his reads. Dann also showed that some of Bright's posts focus on whether the lynch can go through or not rather than whether the player he is voting is scum. That may show the mentality of scum trying to get through the game rather than town trying to find scum. I think I'd vote Bright if the choices are him, mbaki, and Vorkuta.

Page 66/67:

when does town self voting play to their win condition

It can be done to get votes off of you. Being townread helps as both alignments. Being scumread hurts as both alignments. It also happens as a genuine emotional reaction, which is poor play but more common than a calculated self vote.

I'm townier than EVERYONE!

like it just feels weird that you haven't ISO'd me yet.

What is the purpose of ISOing someone at this stage of the game who most people would call obvtown?

_________________

Just got an invite to go out for New Year's. Gonna get off the computer while I consider it. 5 pages to go.

[OkaPoka]

my vote sits on vorkuta because voting mbaki is equivalent to having no vote at all

i guess coaching isn;t completely off the table, but that's a lot of planning and forethought to the point where its wifom-y. like they would have to have predicted that they were both gonna get scumread today.

mbaki states himself that his self vote wasn't for towncred. soooo

[DrDolittle]

Why did DDL hesitate on Vork then?

UNVOTE:
need2think

Scum 99.8 percent on the lynch block does not claim VT? Do they?

Maybe I'm over thinking this.

If you know you are gonna die, would you still claim VT as scum? Why not a hail Mary PR reaction test

i still feel uneasy though.

if vork flips town, then tomorrow it feels almost natural to push bef.
but as creature echoed, I can also see them both as town.

this potentially hints at scum pushing narratives around and lining up easy mislynches.

I dislike all of these posts, especially the last one, and it just feels like a way for DDL to make himself look better if Vorkuta flips town. Hate the admittance that it feels natural to push BEF but the addition of the wishy-washy "I could see him as town." The amount of hesitation based off only my intent to hammer and a VT claim doesn't feel real. It's a somewhat smart move for scum since they know looking at the people on Voruta's wagon will be the next step.

Everyone and their moms can make that surface level argument, and I agree with your thought. Let's table this discussion until vork flip how about that. If he flips town I'll quote this post for you again so you dont forget.

[DrDolittle]

Btw vla 2 days.

if china doesnt have access to ms in that you dont hear from me in 3 days replace me pls.

[mbaki]

he replaced obvtown

I would love to hear how Leodanny was obvtown, lol.

mbaki states himself that his self vote wasn't for towncred. soooo

[Varsoon]

Not a fan of Oka proposing a wagon on me with no supporting case and immediately testing the waters by defaulting to Nero
Have some damn gumption of your own, man.

[DrDolittle]

I think I would prefer a BEF lynch today.
1 - I think there's at most one scum in {BEF, Vork} and {BEF, mbaki}. That role flipping red clears our
2 - With conf bias, his wagon hop on me is extremely lazy and antitown ("for the sake of progress")
3 - I agree with what people said. BEF's reads today are extremely weak, and they feel more like continuing to set up mislynches.
4 - Meta-wise, this game reminds me of the last time BEF played scum, rather than BEF played town. His scum play seems more confident, vocally fights with frequent-posters, and then gradually shirks when there's more pressure.
5 - The story that rb-BEF teammates makes sense, although its weaker than rb-vork.

I'm still ok with Vork lynch, but right now, I would prefer a flip here instead. VOTE: bef

[OkaPoka]

I do have a case.

click iso

its spread across a few posts

[DrDolittle]

here's the game i'm referencing if anyone wants to take a look: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

[Varsoon]

@Oka: Gross.

@DDL: You need to do more to show how BEF is scum in this game.

[OkaPoka]

whats wrong with testing the waters tho

if a wagon on u is not viable today then its not viable

[OkaPoka]

whats gross lol

[DrDolittle]

@Varsoon Dannflor's entering post and his post #1607 gives a good treatment that is more iso based