Mini Normal 2046: Autumn's Farewell [Endgame]

[DrDolittle]

man I really think mbaki is scum. This is the strongest scum read I've had in a really long time; every other post i see scummy intent. I'm going to be pretty sad if I'm wrong

E.g.
"Similarly, I think lynching in Kmd and DDL is best. For better or worse, DDL's posting today has locked me onto him, so I doubt my vote is moving."
feels like a setup for when I flip town. If I were as committed as him on a player being scum, all I could think about is finding partners, which mbaki's posts are not moving towards.

Not to mention all the anger as soon as there's pressure on him seems very much like a strongman-style scum tactic, which does seem like mbaki style of play.

[DrDolittle]

@mbaki, when you say kmd/drdo do you mean one of is scum?

[mbaki]

{DDL, Kmd}
{Oka, Creature, Varsoon}

which bracket is better to resolve first? I don't think Creature is scum

And in response to 2475, good scum players simply do not do "setups for when people flip town". That is not an important part of play. Town is wrong, and therefore, scum imitating being town should be wrong sometimes too. I am only even bothering to reply to you because you just implicated yourself: you specifically set yourself up for when Vorkuta flipped town, and then Fish. You just illustrated that your mindset as scum is, in your words, to make "a setup for when [players] flip town". Cognitive bias leading to self-implication is a common scum failure.

[mbaki]

If I were as committed as him on a player being scum, all I could think about is finding partners, which mbaki's posts are not moving towards.

And to respond to this sentence which I assume is the meat of your post:
I am clearly "concerned with finding partners", as I am still engaging with Oka and others about who the other scum is in him / Creature / Kmd.
More important than that, being more than 75% sure any player you don't have a cop guilty on is scum is

generally

delusional play beginner players have. The exception are reads that are meta-based. Other than meta, amazing top level reads are 60% accurate give or take; anything more than that is unrealistic.

So yes, I strongly believe you are scum over Kmd, but I also strongly believed Vork was scum. Why would I not be concerned with sorting Kmd, who is a scum lean I've had for a while, is implicated by the kills,

and

was voting me? His reevaluation on me feels better, and his day 1 was somewhat townie. I don't care if all you could think about is finding partners, put the unnecessary sarcastic comment about how ur bad here.

I don't know why

you're

asking

me

questions if all you do for strong scum reads is think about finding partners.

[DrDolittle]

lol i really appreciate this little lesson but i know for a fact its wrong because im town.

[DrDolittle]

More important than that, being more than 75% sure any player you don't have a cop guilty on is scum is generally delusional play beginner players have. The exception are reads that are meta-based. Other than meta, amazing top level reads are 60% accurate give or take; anything more than that is unrealistic.

math is my expertise and you are definitely wrong here. there's 7 people left in the game and 2 scum. I know im town. Suka and Varsoon are pretty much confirmed town in my book. Thus I need to sort 2 scum in 4 people. If I guess randomly its still a 50/50. So here getting to 75 is very reasonable.

[DrDolittle]

odds are even higher in lylo. i.e. 2 people voting each other. the town guy knows 100 percent who is scum, even without a cop guilty

[mbaki]

lol i really appreciate this little lesson but i know for a fact its wrong because im town.

None of it hinges on you being scum? Why is this even relevant, unless its just an excuse for you to posture that you're town.

And on the topic of math, its a general rule of thumb about confidence. At the time of the Vork lynch, there were 11 living players, so 2 scum out of 10 people (excluding myself), so 20% was the base random odds. Getting 60% accuracy in that situation is impressive. Of course, as the game progresses it shrinks.

I also said more than 75% if you nitpick, and if you are 75% sure someone's scum there's still the 25% of the time you're wrong. 25% is not that small of a number. And before you hit me with the "90% confidence mbaki scum" garbage, this is either the 25% or the 10% because I am town and if you are a townie you are therefore wrong and proving my point that you're overconfident put unneeded insult here.

[DrDolittle]

And in response to 2475, good scum players simply do not do "setups for when people flip town". That is not an important part of play. Town is wrong, and therefore, scum imitating being town should be wrong sometimes too. I am only even bothering to reply to you because you just implicated yourself: you specifically set yourself up for when Vorkuta flipped town, and then Fish. You just illustrated that your mindset as scum is, in your words, to make "a setup for when [players] flip town". Cognitive bias leading to self-implication is a common scum failure.

2479 was directed here... where this "implicated yourself" argument is invalid since im town.
p.s. no insults hurled or intended?

[Kmd4390]

He seemed convinced it's impossible for varsoon to be scum

is that your whole argument of mbaki town over me? I spent like 2 pages trying to convince oka that varsoon is town?

When I get on my computer later tonight I'll Ctrl+f varsoons name in your ISO, but it was specifically the way mbaki used setup info from the wiki to show a new belief that varsoon must be confirmed town while I was deciding whether to vote mbaki or varsoon.

[mbaki]

I have nothing left to say.

[northsidegal]

Searching for a replacement for Suka.

[OkaPoka]

Mobile posting.

I don't know what to make of varsoon going after creature. I guess scum him would have gone after me more likely but it's not enough to change me read on him

[OkaPoka]

Who is scum, creature?

[mbaki]

Well, let's see what the replacement does. Fresh eyes are nice in games like this.

[OkaPoka]

mbaki i feel like your numbers and percentages and explanation are just random bs?

[OkaPoka]

DDL, why would scum mbaki kill dann?

[mbaki]

mbaki i feel like your numbers and percentages and explanation are just random bs?

I feel like its not, and that isn't the important part of the posts, despite it being what DDL chose to reply to?

[Creature]

The wheels on the train go round and round,
Round and round,
Round and round.
The wheels on the train go round and round,
All through the town.

The horn on the train goes choo, choo, choo,
Choo, choo, choo,
Choo, choo, choo.
The horn on the train goes choo, choo, choo
All through the town.

The people on the train go up and down.
Up and down.
Up and down.
The people on the train go up and down,
All through the town!

The wipers on the train go swish, swish, swish;
Swish, swish, swish,
Swish, swish, swish.
The wipers on the train go swish, swish, swish,
All through the town.

The chimney on the train goes puff, puff, puff
Puff, puff, puff,
Puff, puff, puff.
The chimney on the train goes puff, puff, puff
All through the town!

The dog on the train jumps up and down
Up and down
Up and down.
The dog on the train jumps up and down
All through the town!

The baby on the train goes wha, wha, wha
Wha, wha, wha,
Wha, wha, wha.
The baby on the train goes wha, wha, wha
All through the town!

The lights on the train go on and off
On and off;
On and off.
The lights on the train go on and off
All through the town!

The windows on the train go up and down
Up and down,
Up and down.
The windows on the train go up and down
All through the town!

[Creature]

Have we lost yet?

[Creature]

Also what's even the point of a town voyeur in this setup?

[Creature]

Damn, someone beat my postcount this game

[Creature]

Who is scum, creature?

idk, do you know who is?

[Creature]

lol if suka doesn't show, there's 100 pages of reading for the replacement to do, for 1 single vote.

I want to see them squirm.

[northsidegal]

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