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There is a clear strategy... the Conspirator claims Day 1.In post 37, callforjudgement wrote:
Bunker Guard is a combination of Doctor and Strengthener. (It started out as just the combination, then I added the flavour, to make it more intuitive how the setup works.) Conspirator is sort-of a combination of Neighbouriser and Vigilante, although it's not a pure combination. So the setup clearly obeys both requirements (a clear combination role and 0 VTs), and also obeys both requirements a second/alternative time in a more twisted way (a modified combination role and a modified Neighbouriser).
The basic idea here is that townies can control the game by only targeting other townies (and lots of them). I suspect there are no breaking strategies simply because scum who know that they've been strengthened can kill anyone they like without giving away information, so town can't coordinate them except via the neighbourhood (and thus probably want to keep scum outside the neighbourhood, especially because it would let scum know who the confirmable townie is). The Conspirator was originally just added in an attempt to shift the balance, but I really like where the role ended up (e.g. they can recruit someone, and kill them the same night if they decide after overNight questioning that their target was scum). The modified win condition helps prevent the game dragging out if a townbloc is correctly identified, and also adds a "semi-White-Flag" effect that helps to balance the setup.
Either:
the Mafia do not counter-claim. Town then proceeds to let the Conspirator and only the Conspirator into the Bunker. The Conspirator neighborizes someone with high mafia chance. And kills them(if the lynch was mislynch). Game is then 5:3(MYLO). The Conspirator now selects a team of 3 who should be led into the bunker in emergency and assigns a circle, then forces another lynch. At that point the game is set. No kill at night means that Mafia is dead at 4:3. Kill is Mafia win. A mafia lynch delays all plans by one cycle.
Or:The Mafia counter-claim. This is idiotic. The real Conspirator names a townie and that one gets neighbourized, and bunkers the Conspirator(if the conspirator dies then TWO Mafia are outed). The counter-claim is then speedlynched Day 2 and everything goes forth like above.
This strategy makes that game unfun; because the Bunker Guards are forced to not protect anyone unless commanded by the IC...- Bicephalous Bob
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Bicephalous Bob Mafia Scum
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Treacherous Jester
1 Mafia Treacherous Jester
2 Mafia Goons
10 VTs
- The game continues if the treacherous jester is lynched
- The goons know the identity of the jester, but not the other way around
- The goons win if half of the living players are Mafia
- The treacherous jester wins if they are lynched and the Mafia goons win after that
- The town wins when the goons are dead
- The treacherous jester counts towards the Mafia majority, so when 3 VTs, 2 goons and the jester are alive, the goons win, but the jester does not
The goons want to keep the jester alive, the jester wants to die without screwing over the goons, and the VTs want to kill the goons.- BBmolla
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HmmIn post 54, Jingle wrote:Does the vig claim outcome need to be fixed?
Assuming vig claim D1, Vig is BP IC but the maf kill can be assumed to always work, and 2/3 of the scumteam is protected from kills every night. I could work out the math, but that doesn't seem overly townsided to me.
yeah that's fair, I'll resubmit it as it was
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A missed kill is only an auto-loss for scum when there's only one scum left (scum can miss a kill at 4:3 without anything happening). As such, I don't see how this plan has a high enough town win chance to be worth trying.In post 55, Not Known 15 wrote:There is a clear strategy... the Conspirator claims Day 1.
You end up with a random townie dying N1, and a player of town's choice also dying N1; if town miss with both their D1 lynch and N1 vig, which is entirely possible, that takes the game down to 5:3 with one townie confirmed. If they hit with one, the game is 6:2 with one townie confirmed. Town's odds of winning from the first setup are near zero; from the second the best strategy is to forming a three-player townbloc, as you suggest (which is hard in a 6:2, there are 56 possible 3-player blocs and only 20 of them consist of three townies).
In order to win this, town pretty much have to try to block the scum kill early. Claiming would defeat the purpose of that.scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town- Jingle
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Fair warning, I've submitted a bunch of your setups to the marathon open group (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10681845). If any of you are offended by this, I think that's really weird that you wouldn't want people playing your game, but I'm sure we'll respect your wishes. Also, feel free to go over there and suggest more setups/get in on some marathon open mafia action.
/shameless promotion based on the idea that the two groups will have a lot of cross interest.This is a Parachute.- Jingle
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Agreed. I think you'll get better results choosing a pool of ~4 probtown players that are valid bunker targets on D1 and then having the town players choose from that pool. That way there's no guarantee that any individual player is or isn't in the bunker, but the players who are most likely to be town are also the players who are least likely to get shot. Then when the Conspirator targets a player they bunker them the next night and get vig killed at the same time. That way, if the conspirator flips you know there's scum in the probtown pool and the PoE is relatively small.In post 58, callforjudgement wrote:
A missed kill is only an auto-loss for scum when there's only one scum left (scum can miss a kill at 4:3 without anything happening). As such, I don't see how this plan has a high enough town win chance to be worth trying.In post 55, Not Known 15 wrote:There is a clear strategy... the Conspirator claims Day 1.
You end up with a random townie dying N1, and a player of town's choice also dying N1; if town miss with both their D1 lynch and N1 vig, which is entirely possible, that takes the game down to 5:3 with one townie confirmed. If they hit with one, the game is 6:2 with one townie confirmed. Town's odds of winning from the first setup are near zero; from the second the best strategy is to forming a three-player townbloc, as you suggest (which is hard in a 6:2, there are 56 possible 3-player blocs and only 20 of them consist of three townies).
In order to win this, town pretty much have to try to block the scum kill early. Claiming would defeat the purpose of that.This is a Parachute.-
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Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
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No, you are missing something. Two things: 1. Let's assume mislynch and miskill - you are at 5:3 correct... then mislynch would send the game to night 4:3. If the three selected people are townies(who circle-invite themselves to the bunker ONLY if it is a mislynch) then town will survive the night and the three Mafia get voted out(and they have to be Mafia because Mafia would have otherwise killed someone, and won)In post 58, callforjudgement wrote:
A missed kill is only an auto-loss for scum when there's only one scum left (scum can miss a kill at 4:3 without anything happening). As such, I don't see how this plan has a high enough town win chance to be worth trying.In post 55, Not Known 15 wrote:There is a clear strategy... the Conspirator claims Day 1.
You end up with a random townie dying N1, and a player of town's choice also dying N1; if town miss with both their D1 lynch and N1 vig, which is entirely possible, that takes the game down to 5:3 with one townie confirmed. If they hit with one, the game is 6:2 with one townie confirmed. Town's odds of winning from the first setup are near zero; from the second the best strategy is to forming a three-player townbloc, as you suggest (which is hard in a 6:2, there are 56 possible 3-player blocs and only 20 of them consist of three townies).
In order to win this, town pretty much have to try to block the scum kill early. Claiming would defeat the purpose of that.
If it is a Mafia lynch Day 2 after mislynch and miskill then the bloc does not activate. You form a bloc of 2. Then you lynch. A Town lynch activates the bloc of 2 who protect each other, if they aren't both townies Mafia wins, otherwise mafia is outed.
A Mafia lynch sends the game to 4:1. A death sends the game to 3:1. Now the Town wins when there is no kill, so the Conspirator now forms a bloc of 2 cross-protecting each other and then No Lynch happens.
If the bloc contains mafia, it's 1v1 at LYLO next day. If not, town wins.
Note-this is the optimal strategy, but that doesn't mean that it has a very good win rate. It's just not very interesting to play that way.
I added that red thing - the mafia player won't bunker, obviously.In post 60, Jingle wrote:Agreed. I think you'll get better results choosing a pool of ~4 probtown players that are valid bunker targets on D1 and then having the town players choose from that pool. That way there's no guarantee that any individual player is or isn't in the bunker, but the players who are most likely to be town are also the players who are least likely to get shot. Then when the Conspirator targets a player they bunker them the next night and get vig killed at the same timeor they get killed by the mafia they chose. That way, if the conspirator flips you know there's scum in the probtown pool and the PoE is relatively small.
No, not at all. The POE is very BIG for two scum positions. You only know the position of one scum - you don't know if there are one, two or three scum in that POE. Sorry.
And at that pointwhen you mislynch and miskill, you are already at MYLO.
Assume:
Initially: 8v3 - 4 townbloc - 4v4v3
mislynch miskill mafia kill from townbloc, 5v3 - MYLO. With mafia in bunker it's game over on mislynch.
Now... Mislynch Mafia Kill Neighbourizer Kill - 6v2.... but no info whatsoever mechanically - mislynch sends to 4v2... same problem as before.
Initially:8v3 - 4 real townbloc plus Neighbourizer - mislynch miskill Nightkill.....
5v3 MYLO... if those 5 are town then town wins, yes...
Problem?
You can have that easier with my strategy.
Finding 3 on Day 2 after one nightkill is picking 4 on Day 1 only with less info...- Jingle
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But, if mafia is neighborized they're going to shoot the Conspirator anyway, and this way the Conspirator is guaranteed to take a mafia with them if they target one. This gives town a chance to have the conspirator in the bunker without outing AND without the mafia knowing whether their target is potentially in the neighborhood. The other bit was all about limiting access to the Bunker so that you don't end up with a D3 or so with everyone alive in the bunker, and it's also worth noting that none of the potential bunker targets are guaranteed to be in the bunker N1 given a presumable 6 bunker targets and each of those being chosen randomly out of ~4 people.In post 61, Not Known 15 wrote:I added that red thing - the mafia player won't bunker, obviously.
I don't think it's a breaking strategy, just potentially the best use of resources. And the 4 might be better served being a smaller number, that was just my initial guess.
If we're going to discuss the setup's balance more, though, you should probably make a separate setup thread. Either way, I'd definitely play in your proposed game.This is a Parachute.- Irrelephant11
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In that case...
While this is super interesting as a closed, it's unfortunately broken by massclaim as an open. Too many named roles.In post 21, osieorb18 wrote:Hi guys! the worst kinda suggested that I do this.
Here you go...
Balance is... Lol.
%%%
Spoiler: SetupThis is a Parachute.- callforjudgement
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callforjudgement Microprocessor
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a) Finding a three-player townbloc in a 4:3 setup is very hard.In post 61, Not Known 15 wrote:No, you are missing something. Two things: 1. Let's assume mislynch and miskill - you are at 5:3 correct... then mislynch would send the game to night 4:3. If the three selected people are townies(who circle-invite themselves to the bunker ONLY if it is a mislynch) then town will survive the night and the three Mafia get voted out(and they have to be Mafia because Mafia would have otherwise killed someone, and won)
b) It doesn't even help. Scum will just kill the uninvited townie, leading to a 3:3 setup which is a ascum win.
So at this point, we have three dead townies and one dead scum going into Night 2: that's 5:2. If scum kills someone (which they will do if you persist with your strategy of "everyone protect the Conspirator"), we're at 4:2 going into Day 3. Assuming a town lynch (as you are above), we'll be at 4:2 or 3:2 going into Night 3. In either of these setups, forming a bloc of 2 (which presumably cross-protect, with nobody else protecting for fear of strengthening scum) is not enough to out scum, they'll just kill outside the bloc (reaching a lylo 3:2 or a winning 2:2 as appropriate).If it is a Mafia lynch Day 2 after mislynch and miskill then the bloc does not activate. You form a bloc of 2. Then you lynch. A Town lynch activates the bloc of 2 who protect each other, if they aren't both townies Mafia wins, otherwise mafia is outed.
Actually, I think I see the flaw in your reasoning: in the 3:2 ending, you seem to be assuming that the Conspirator nominates two townies to cross-protect, andalsothat the Conspirator themself is protected. But town only have two protections, and three players to use them on (the Conspirator isn't a Bunker Guard).
This is an example of the flaw in your reasoning. At 3:1, you have Conspirator, 2 Bunker Guards, 1 Goon. If the plan is for two players to cross-protect, scum will simply kill the Conspirator (who can't cross-protect due to not being able to protect). That takes the setup to a 2:1 where you've gained no information about whether or not scum was in the townbloc.A Mafia lynch sends the game to 4:1. A death sends the game to 3:1. Now the Town wins when there is no kill, so the Conspirator now forms a bloc of 2 cross-protecting each other and then No Lynch happens.
If the bloc contains mafia, it's 1v1 at LYLO next day. If not, town wins.
I'm pretty sure that the optimal strategy is to try to block the scum from killing, thus giving you more time to lynch them (as opposed to your strategy, which gives the scum a kill basically every night). Even if you don't stop the kill, you can probably at least guide it away from the best scumhunters and most townish-looking players, forcing scum to make a suboptimal kill.Note-this is the optimal strategy, but that doesn't mean that it has a very good win rate. It's just not very interesting to play that way.scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town- RadiantCowbells
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Friends Forever
Each player that signs up for the game signs up with a partner.
6* Town Mason Lovers (paired with their partner)
2* Mafia Lovers (paired with their partner)
So essentially 8p lovers but you can choose someone to be on your team no matter what!2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.- Jingle
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Is there any reason the jester doesn't claim in XLO? Like, there's no reason not to lynch them if they claim, right?In post 56, Bicephalous Bob wrote:Treacherous Jester
1 Mafia Treacherous Jester
2 Mafia Goons
10 VTs
- The game continues if the treacherous jester is lynched
- The goons know the identity of the jester, but not the other way around
- The goons win if half of the living players are Mafia
- The treacherous jester wins if they are lynched and the Mafia goons win after that
- The town wins when the goons are dead
- The treacherous jester counts towards the Mafia majority, so when 3 VTs, 2 goons and the jester are alive, the goons win, but the jester does not
The goons want to keep the jester alive, the jester wants to die without screwing over the goons, and the VTs want to kill the goons.This is a Parachute.- callforjudgement
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Isn't it better for the Poisoner simply not to act (except in an emergency)? Doing so would pretty much out them as scum, as it can't be hard to tell which Neighbourizer is which. (Strange though it looks for scum to have an extra kill and not use it.)In post 23, Jingle wrote:Speaking of setups, raw as hell but:
Probably needs EV tweaks, but I like the complexity strategy wise.
I don't think a Weak Neighbourizer is enough by itself to balance an 8:3 (although in an Open, there's always the risk of some sort of absurd claiming strategy). Note that scum will, if run up, claim to have been Neighbourized; any attempt by town to counterclaim this will lead to scum learning the identity of one of the confirmed townies (and if it happens D2, towncan'tcounterclaim because they don't know whether the scum Neighbourizer acted, and thus no townie has enough information to know that the claim is false). If the scum Neighbourizer is forced to claim and survives the lynch for that night, they can poison someone overnight in the knowledge that they're doomed the next day anyway, so they may as well take someone with them.scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town- callforjudgement
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Unfortunately for EV calculations, the setup contains WIFOM (specifically, if scum are recruited to the neighbourhood while the original recruiter is still alve, do they kill the original recruiter (who's confirmable as town) or not?). The existence of WIFOM in a setup makes EV calculations incredibly difficult because they require knowing the optimal breaking strategy, which requires knowing the optimal way to handle the WIFOM (which nearly always involves randomizing your action, but calculating the probabilities can be hard).In post 22, northsidegal wrote:
I feel like there's the start of a good idea in here, but it might need some tweaking on the exact numbers. I also feel like the EV could probably actually be calculated for this? No clue how to do it, though.scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town- callforjudgement
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That's not an 11p.In post 66, RadiantCowbells wrote:Friends Forever
Each player that signs up for the game signs up with a partner.
6* Town Mason Lovers (paired with their partner)
2* Mafia Lovers (paired with their partner)
So essentially 8p lovers but you can choose someone to be on your team no matter what!
Additionally, I think it's equivalent to a 3:1 lylo setup using four hydras, which would be "not mafia" as you don't have any associative tells (everyone knows that players in a pair will be defending each other, and no player has any incentive to defend anyone from a different pair other than reads).scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town- RadiantCowbells
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oh man, you're right. They can even claim day 1. Anyway, I too missed the fact that the setup has to have 11 players.In post 67, Jingle wrote:Is there any reason the jester doesn't claim in XLO? Like, there's no reason not to lynch them if they claim, right?- callforjudgement
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If town mislynch D1, that's two dead townies. Scum shoot N1 and that's another two dead townies, so it's 2:2 going into D2 = scum win. Thus town have no mislynches, making it a lylo setup by definition.In post 72, RadiantCowbells wrote:(also it's not lylo, the lovers were meant to be separate)scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town - callforjudgement
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