Newbie 1913 - game over!!

[L84Dnr]

It's possible, but I'm not going to start looking for teams until we've got one scum confirmed.

The simpler explanation here is that YellowSnow's targeting of me is just ill-conceived OMGUS. He might have had a chance diverting us onto Saint if he hadn't made me the focus of his attention.

Not sure what to think of Saint. Could be scum but could be n00btown.

We're 12 hours from end of Day 1, so we should either agree on a new target or hammer YellowSnow.

[brassherald]

Wait, I thought EOD was tomorrow. Yeah, hammer would be acceptable at this time

[hearthstone1235]

Inb4 nobody shows up and we get a nl

[L84Dnr]

From the last vote count by The Worst

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.

I don't see what a claim would be worth at this point. Anybody with half a wit can fake claim given the number of possible roles.

[brassherald]

Yeah, I just lost track of what day it was and didn't read the timer.

[Roo]

I’m going to wait a little bit to see if Yellow responds to Hearth and gives any more support for his reads. But I’m prepared to hammer by the deadline.

[YellowSnow]

I am vanilla town.

[brassherald]

The only other one I would lynch today is Saint right now, tbh. DT slot is too far from lynch to be realistic with 10 hours left.

I'm not sure that Scum!YellowSnow claims a VT, to be honest, because he knows the optimal fake claim on the basis of me saying it in our last game.

But, we are also in the 11th hour, so my lynch pool is {YellowSnow,Saint} and I think if either of them are town, the last is BlurryX(I'm pretty sure he is the DT replacement?)

[YellowSnow]

VOTE: Saint

[Roo]

The only other one I would lynch today is Saint right now, tbh. DT slot is too far from lynch to be realistic with 10 hours left.

I'm not sure that Scum!YellowSnow claims a VT, to be honest, because he knows the optimal fake claim on the basis of me saying it in our last game.

But, we are also in the 11th hour, so my lynch pool is {YellowSnow,Saint} and I think if either of them are town, the last is BlurryX(I'm pretty sure he is the DT replacement?)

This sums up exactly where I am at right now too. Saint now has 3 votes. Brass, if you wanted to be vote 4, is there a fifth vote out there?

[brassherald]

The only other one I would lynch today is Saint right now, tbh. DT slot is too far from lynch to be realistic with 10 hours left.

I'm not sure that Scum!YellowSnow claims a VT, to be honest, because he knows the optimal fake claim on the basis of me saying it in our last game.

But, we are also in the 11th hour, so my lynch pool is {YellowSnow,Saint} and I think if either of them are town, the last is BlurryX(I'm pretty sure he is the DT replacement?)

This sums up exactly where I am at right now too. Saint now has 3 votes. Brass, if you wanted to be vote 4, is there a fifth vote out there?

If there is a 4th vote soon-ish, just consider I am intent to hammering.

[L84Dnr]

I have RL commitments soon and will be off until lynchtime.

YellowSnow has been at L-1 and told of inten to hammer. Saint hasn't.

[brassherald]

I do not want to switch wagons right now because I cannot assure that I will be around to follow through with switching again tonight. I will only participate in another wagon if it is absolutely needed.

[xwing]

im still on saint..and i'd rather lynch saint..
im still fine to lynch yellow as we're on our last few hours though..

[brassherald]

im still on saint..and i'd rather lynch saint..
im still fine to lynch yellow as we're on our last few hours though..

I'd say I still prefer yellow, even though my read has wavered on yellow a bit, just because if Saint is a PR, I don't know there's a real chance to get a claim before hammer.

[YellowSnow]

So you're going to let Saint's lack of activity cause you to lynch a town player?

[brassherald]

So you're going to let Saint's lack of activity cause you to lynch a town player?

What if Saint is a town PR? I've already explained that a lynch is better than a no lynch. You've already claimed VT.

I'm not townreading you for just the claim itself, but if I'm wrong on both my reads, which has happened before, I'd rather lynch the VT claim than a no claim. If we were 24 hours from deadline, maybe I play this differently, but we just aren't. I need to take the amount of time we have into account on a decision like this.

[YellowSnow]

In this case I disagree on a lynch being better than a no lynch. I think we are narrowing down who the scum are and can afford one no lynch and I can be a valuable player.

[YellowSnow]

I think you know from our newbie game that I am not a town liability in normal circumstances.

[xwing]

@brass
makes sense..
he's still at L-1?

@yellow
i also believe that lynching claimed VT is better than any other option we currently have..
what do you mean by "normal circumstances" then? why is your play here different than normal?

[YellowSnow]

I mean I have't been as active as normal this game due to RL.

[brassherald]

In this case I disagree on a lynch being better than a no lynch. I think we are narrowing down who the scum are and can afford one no lynch and I can be a valuable player.

Mathematically, that is incorrect.

I found the thread finally that explains the math.

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better.

Also, mod confirmed information always has great value.

So, I respectfully will say that, as a VT, your lynch is not really a big hit to town at this point, if you are town. And I mean this as not insult at all, I'm sure if you are town, you could provide some value, but the pure pragmatic view is that a lynch is better than a no lynch, and a VT lynch is better than a possible PR lynch.

Of course, scum lynch is the best case scenario.

[brassherald]

@brass
makes sense..
he's still at L-1?

Yeah, no one has voted off the train since last vote count.

[YellowSnow]

brass and I were town teammates and while we lost the game due to an excellent scum team we both played pretty well.

[the worst]

quack