Newbie 1913 - game over!!

[Roo]

VOTE: BrassHerald

To provide added incentive for you to reply.

Completely agree with you that I'd like to hear from Brassherald. But just note he is V/La through Saturday

[L84Dnr]

He's V/LA all the way through Saturday? Well crap.

UNVOTE:

Not much point in pressuring somebody who isn't here.

VOTE: xwing

Clearly DT did not townslip, so I'd like to know what you were thinking in post 197.

[SaintAngelDFE]

@Saint Do you have any thoughts on why BlurryX wasn't voting at the end of Day 1? To be precise, if you are town, then this vote count looks like scum paradise:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :

YellowSnow

(4) :

volxen, hearthstone1235

, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :

BlurryX

(1) :

SaintAngelDFE

Roo (0) :

SaintAngelDFE

(3) : xwing, Roo,

YellowSnow

volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting:

BlurryX

All that BlurryX had to do was hop on your wagon to produce two town wagons, both at L-1 with just a few hours until end of day. Chaos abounds and some poor townie mislynches another townie. If he's lucky, you hammer YellowSnow, which pretty much sets you up to be a guaranteed Day 2 mislynch. Can you think of a good reason why he might not have seized that opportunity?

Honestly looking at blurry's voting history (or lack thereof) I'm guessing that either he thought that voting to lynch me would be seen as hopping onto a wagon - which may have been overthinking it seeing as he joined in roughly 48 hours before EOD which would have made it understandable - or he might have been trying to make a play by pushing me day 2 to guarantee a mislynch since I was/am already suspected as scum by a majority of the rest of the town.

To touch on some of the points brought up by others, I am noticing when I read back through that a lot of any Brass/DT interactions have been essentially hot potato, they mention eachother or call eachother out a little and then seem to just move on without particularly pushing. This could have also been because of DT's rather intense self-reads and (now) obvious misdirection by using knowledge none of us would be able to have due to this not being his first forum for mafia/werewolf.

I'd also like to look into the interactions between xwing and the DT/BlurryX slot? Reading back through there are little to NO interactions between the two except where xwing seemingly misread one of DT's posts and gave him a town read, at least until he was called out and claimed a slip, and then xwing was one of Blurry's earliest town leans, after which there were next to no interaction between them. Is there any reason for this outside of the heavy push for my lynch?


VOTE: xwing

[SaintAngelDFE]

xwing is now at L-1, nobody vote him until we can get answers please. I'd like to see some answers to the questions L8 and myself have posted.

[L84Dnr]

UNVOTE:

Explain your vote Saint. There's scum out there and you could have gotten Xwing hammered. Nice sheep BTW.

[L84Dnr]

@Saint Do you have any thoughts on why BlurryX wasn't voting at the end of Day 1? To be precise, if you are town, then this vote count looks like scum paradise:

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :

YellowSnow

(4) :

volxen, hearthstone1235

, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :

BlurryX

(1) :

SaintAngelDFE

Roo (0) :

SaintAngelDFE

(3) : xwing, Roo,

YellowSnow

volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting:

BlurryX

All that BlurryX had to do was hop on your wagon to produce two town wagons, both at L-1 with just a few hours until end of day. Chaos abounds and some poor townie mislynches another townie. If he's lucky, you hammer YellowSnow, which pretty much sets you up to be a guaranteed Day 2 mislynch. Can you think of a good reason why he might not have seized that opportunity?

Honestly looking at blurry's voting history (or lack thereof) I'm guessing that either he thought that voting to lynch me would be seen as hopping onto a wagon - which may have been overthinking it seeing as he joined in roughly 48 hours before EOD which would have made it understandable - or he might have been trying to make a play by pushing me day 2 to guarantee a mislynch since I was/am already suspected as scum by a majority of the rest of the town.

To touch on some of the points brought up by others, I am noticing when I read back through that a lot of any Brass/DT interactions have been essentially hot potato, they mention eachother or call eachother out a little and then seem to just move on without particularly pushing. This could have also been because of DT's rather intense self-reads and (now) obvious misdirection by using knowledge none of us would be able to have due to this not being his first forum for mafia/werewolf.

I'd also like to look into the interactions between xwing and the DT/BlurryX slot? Reading back through there are little to NO interactions between the two except where xwing seemingly misread one of DT's posts and gave him a town read, at least until he was called out and claimed a slip, and then xwing was one of Blurry's earliest town leans, after which there were next to no interaction between them. Is there any reason for this outside of the heavy push for my lynch?


VOTE: xwing

Not one single original thought in your reads. Brass/DT a la Volxen and Xwing by me.

Let me give you my interpretation of Day 1. The vote count looks like scum heaven if you're town, but if you're scum then you get this bubbling pot of dread.

vote count 1.18

hearthstone1235 (0) :

YellowSnow

(4) :

volxen, hearthstone1235

, L84Dnr, brassherald
L84Dnr (0) :

BlurryX

(1) :

SaintAngelDFE

Roo (0) :

SaintAngelDFE

(3) : xwing, Roo,

YellowSnow

volxen (0) :
xwing (0) :
brassherald (0) :

not voting:

BlurryX

That's a lovely little distancing vote you have on Blurry.

What is Blurry going to do with that mess? His options, in order from worse to worst are:
- Nothing
- Cook up some inane excuse for a new wagon
- Hammer a townie
- Vote his scumbuddy up to L-1
- Self vote

No surprise that he opted to do nothing.

It also explains the NK on the wagon. Once Roo hammers YellowSnow, you and Blurry are left drifting out here with Xwing. If you NK him then town can't help but hit scum as long as they target the players who weren't on the wagon.

It also explain's Blurry's abrupt end to Day 2. He could have talked himself out of that corner, but who is he going to put the suspicion on? You of course. I had stated that I was willing to lynch you Day 2, so why would scum fail to argue for that?

I'd still like to hear from Xwing and Brass, but until then have one on me.

VOTE: SaintAngelDFE

[L84Dnr]

As per Volxen's dying request, which I agree with entirely:

Please do not autolynch Saint!

I'd like to hear out all perspectives.

[the worst]

vote count 3.01

L84Dnr (0) :
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (1) : L84Dnr
xwing (1) : SaintAngelDFE
brassherald (0) :

not voting: Roo, xwing, brassherald

with 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-02-13 07:30:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack

[xwing]

@Xwing
[snip]
I know that you later said this was a mistake, but at the time why did you think that DT might have townslipped?

please see post 206..
also, in post 202 i gave volxen a town read with no explanations..i suspected him to be PR but obviously i cant say it out loud..anyway he still ate the NK though..need to find if he crumbed who he will JK, as that would be a town clear..

As per Volxen's dying request, which I agree with entirely:

Please do not autolynch Saint!

I'd like to hear out all perspectives.

i still dont think brass is scum..i dont have much time to reread now, will do later maybe..
i still think saint is scum though..

[xwing]

did a quick ISO of volxen and didnt find any crumb on who he JK'd..lemme know if any of you find anything..whoever was JK'd last night is surely town..wished he hinted who though zzzzzzzzz..
l8 im quite sure is town..
i'm town..
saint, brass, roo, one of these is scum..
the two townies in you, gotta town spew..
i think brass is still town, but waffling on that coz of volxen's case on distancing, though im not so convinced of that case..

[Roo]

Town Spew eh?

I think my place on the Blurry wagon really should speak for itself as indicating that I'm town.

At this point I'm mainly focused on lynching either Saint or Brass. I know I'm town and my read on xwing is definitely town. And I have a town lean on L84.

One other thing I've been thinking though is I do have a small suspicion of L84 with the whole way the self hammer went down. L84 puts Blurry at L-1 and makes a big emphasis of not to hammer –

I could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote, especially if Saint is his partner.

Blurry's been reluctant to say much. Let's put some real pressure on.

VOTE: Blurry

Blurry is now at L-1, so nobody else vote him.

Blurry, would you care to explain why you've been so hesitant?

And then only 9 minutes later, we get the self hammer –

Tough to take over for someone, but I played really poorly. Definitely never replacing into a game again.

VOTE: Blurry

Now I don't know how likely this is, obviously people being on the board at the same time could easily be chalked up to a coincidence. But I think it does at least suggest a small possibility that Blurry & L84 are partners and they ran this big gambit, thinking Blurry was going to go down anyway. So they let L84 gain town cred by putting Blurry at L-1 and then Blurry self-hammering to end all discussion.

[xwing]

@roo, can you kindly explain your town read on my slot please, and why scum is saint/brass? i think your theory on scum!l8 is interesting, but i think it may be a bit of a stretch..taking into consideration the interactions afterward with volxen, i think i believe l8 didnt know self-hammers were allowed..

@saint: i dunno what your question is..i personally find your posts 477 and 478 very icky..
if i'm town, who's your next scum read and why?

[L84Dnr]

Town Spew eh?

I think my place on the Blurry wagon really should speak for itself as indicating that I'm town.

At this point I'm mainly focused on lynching either Saint or Brass. I know I'm town and my read on xwing is definitely town. And I have a town lean on L84.

One other thing I've been thinking though is I do have a small suspicion of L84 with the whole way the self hammer went down. L84 puts Blurry at L-1 and makes a big emphasis of not to hammer –

I could be read as typical scum hesitancy to vote, especially if Saint is his partner.

Blurry's been reluctant to say much. Let's put some real pressure on.

VOTE: Blurry

Blurry is now at L-1, so nobody else vote him.

Blurry, would you care to explain why you've been so hesitant?

And then only 9 minutes later, we get the self hammer –

Tough to take over for someone, but I played really poorly. Definitely never replacing into a game again.

VOTE: Blurry

Now I don't know how likely this is, obviously people being on the board at the same time could easily be chalked up to a coincidence. But I think it does at least suggest a small possibility that Blurry & L84 are partners and they ran this big gambit, thinking Blurry was going to go down anyway. So they let L84 gain town cred by putting Blurry at L-1 and then Blurry self-hammering to end all discussion.

Blurry was giving us the silent treatment, so yes, I voted him to L-1 to put some serious pressure on him. I didn't want him getting accidentally hammered, so I put a big, bold notice up. I was truly surprised when he self-hammered.

If I'm scum then that gambit was damned stoopid because we just managed to kill off our PR for no good reason. Blurry should have been able to talk his way out of that corner while casting enough suspicion on Saint to make him the Day 2 mislynch. I wasn't under suspicion then, so the early end to Day 2 doesn't help me any. Rather the opposite with me being the L-1 vote. Taking your PR from 2 votes to lynch on Day 2 for that little gain is just plain imbecilic.

[L84Dnr]

@roo, can you kindly explain your town read on my slot please, and why scum is saint/brass? i think your theory on scum!l8 is interesting, but i think it may be a bit of a stretch..taking into consideration the interactions afterward with volxen, i think i believe l8 didnt know self-hammers were allowed..

I had read it but forgot it. I'd have voted the same regardless though. Blurry's self-hammer took me by surprise and still doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I think that he was, in part, frustrated with being thrust into what he thought was an unwinnable position. As I've said above, he really ought to have been able to talk himself out of that noose.

[L84Dnr]

I can make weak cases for all of use being scum, myself included. They're weak though. The best that I have builds off of what Volxen posted about Brass and I can poke holes all through that. Saint is a whole other matter.

It's interesting that Volxen was NKed, but I think that means that Brass was in jail last night. Jailing Saint would only confirm as scum a player that we were likely to "auto-lynch" on Day 3 anyway, so little gain there. Jailing Saint if he's town gets you little info either, because while you avoid that mislynch your suspect pool has just gotten a whole lot murkier, assuming you live through the night. Jailing Brass resolves the prospect that the IC is scum and if he's town and you get NKed then the remaining townies are all pointed at a pretty likely suspect.

[L84Dnr]

@Xwing
[snip]
I know that you later said this was a mistake, but at the time why did you think that DT might have townslipped?

please see post 206..
also, in post 202 i gave volxen a town read with no explanations..i suspected him to be PR but obviously i cant say it out loud..anyway he still ate the NK though..need to find if he crumbed who he will JK, as that would be a town clear..

As per Volxen's dying request, which I agree with entirely:

Please do not autolynch Saint!

I'd like to hear out all perspectives.

i still dont think brass is scum..i dont have much time to reread now, will do later maybe..
i still think saint is scum though..

Agreed. My reads ATM are:

Roo, Xwing: Strong town lean
Brass: Moderate town lean
Saint: Strong scum lean

I'm not saying don't lynch Saint. I'm saying don't lynch him just yet and waste Day 3. I especially want to wait until brass gets back from V/LA. Though if Saint flips green I hope that I draw the NK because my head will explode from the WIFOM trying to figure it out at MYLO/LYLO.

[L84Dnr]

saint, brass, roo, one of these is scum..

I couldn't make a reasonable case for Roo being scum, which is why I used you as bait for my fishing trip in post 476 after Roo mentioned that Brass was V/LA. That's one of the biggest tells in Saint's vote in post 477. He's voting based on that load of horse shit that I cobbled together and which he pretty much repeated verbatim.

[L84Dnr]

@ Saint You neglected to mention me in post 477. I expect that Roo is feeling unloved as well. What's your read on me and Roo?

While you're at it, what's your read on yourself?

[Roo]

@roo, can you kindly explain your town read on my slot please, and why scum is saint/brass? i think your theory on scum!l8 is interesting, but i think it may be a bit of a stretch..taking into consideration the interactions afterward with volxen, i think i believe l8 didnt know self-hammers were allowed..

My town read on you is because you have been very forthcoming with what feel like authentic thoughts. You have posed general questions to players, as well as more specific questions to pressure people that you suspected. Also I feel like your responses to what other slots are pushing suggest town, for example post 215. You gave a reasonable explanation for backing off your DT made a townslip observation.

I agree the L8 theory is a huge stretch, and there isn't really any other evidence to suggest its true. But even if it had a 1% probability, I just wanted to put it out into the ether.


As for Saint/Brass being the scum pool. Brass is mainly because when you look at his ISO there isn't a lot of substantive contributions to the game, other than reads that are pretty much just confirmations of what is being talked about at that time.

But at this point, I think Saint is the obvious target to be lynched. For all the reasons that have been previously stated. Additionally post 477 is really scummy. His looking at the interactions between the xwing/DT/Blurry feels like a real stretch, like scum trying to latch onto anything. Also when you look at Saint's iso in famous mistake post 141 he says "My reads are that xwing is likely town, he is jumping around a lot and searching from information." And then xwing doesn't get mentioned again until post 477 where he votes xwing.

We should've lynched Saint instead of YellowSnow Day 1

VOTE: SaintAngelDFE

[L84Dnr]

Saint, you are now at L-1

Please nobody hammer Saint just yet as I'd really like to hear from Brass.

[L84Dnr]

I'd also like to hear from Saint. His profile shows that he was last on late last night, so he's actively lurking.

You aren't helping yourself here Saint. If you're really town then get in here and help prevent your mislynch.

[xwing]

okay, i'm highly satisfied, roo and l8 are definitely town..

(IF, though i highly doubt) that saint is town, whichever pair out of us 3 makes it to the end just lynch brass..

i'm fine to wait for brass, he might want to have his say too..
@brass, if you want to hammer saint when im not around, i'm fine with it, unless you really want my input or something..

@mod:

im V/LA on weekends, today is friday my time

[the worst]

vote count 3.02

L84Dnr (0) :
Roo (0) :
SaintAngelDFE (2) : L84Dnr, Roo
xwing (1) : SaintAngelDFE
brassherald (0) :

not voting: xwing, brassherald

with 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-02-13 07:30:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- prodding SaintAngelDFE
- nudging brassherald who will be v/la for another ~48 hours
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- brassherald v/la 4-9th February
- quack

[xwing]

im actually just tempted to hammer zzzzz..
must. control. urge. do. not. give. in.
i should prolly log off..

[xwing]

Saint, you are now at L-1

Please nobody hammer Saint just yet as I'd really like to hear from Brass.

oh yeah almost forgot you requested to hold off the hammer whew..
for formality's sake i guess:

@saint im declaring intent to hammer, though im not hammering you until brass comes back from V/LA..

please make your defense, and (a) scum case(s) on who you think is/are scummy..thanks!