Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Krazy]

We Pre-Dance until one of two scenarios:
1) We end deadline.
2) Everyone has a pair; much to one person's expense based on numbers.

Then we go to First Dance, and then it's like Hunger Games Lovers-Version until we're at 12 people, and it's a nightless so we don't transition until multiple pairs are gone.

Right this is what it *seems like it should be* but this means creating a risk, which may only be like a 20% or lower risk, that the game gets exceptionally stupid

Basically I think overall town chances are stronger if we skip dance 1 and just totally throw the coins mechanic out the window because it exclusively helps scum

[Taly]

Instead, I think in pre-dance, we should all just pair with people we would like to solve the game with in dance 2. We should not necessarily pair with people we are locktown on, but rather on people we would enjoy sorting in a PT and enjoy solving with if we are still alive in dance 2

If anyone strongly disagrees with this I'd like to hear it because otherwise I would like to offer a dance (rl) today

I mean ladies know how many coins they have yea? Can we just pair town read gents with high coin ladies, or am I missing something?

I like both ideas....

Krazy's

method promotes transparency, and

Dannflor's

idea gives less power to Scum+Wealthy Ladies or Gents+Wealthy Scum

But I'd rather not make quick decisions on who I'm dancing with, and I think seeing everyone in the thread first is the most pragmatic and observant method of making a decision.

[Krazy]

To add to what Taly said, pairs should probably be decided near end of the pre-dance so we have the most info when making them. ...or we just pick a date we think is cute.

I know this seems intuitive, and if *that is how you want to pair* then I think you should pair that way.

What I'm discussing right now is whether *everyone* should be holding off on dances until late pre-dance because *town needs to solidify top 6 pairings*

If we are strongly in favor of "strategy 1" then no one should dance until late pre-dance

But if we are going for "strategy 2" then people who want to pair fast can pair fast and people who want to pair slow can pair slow

[Dannflor]

The idea of “do no sorting pre-dance” seems all sorts of wrong. If we keep coin mechanics in mind when we make our pairings I think we’re safeish?

[Nancy Drew 39]

So basically there are two ways to play this setup.

I think *both are viable*... and we maybe should think about it a little bit

Strategy 1: We commit to a tentative grouping of 6 locktown players to endgame

Problem with Strategy 1: Scum will, on average, I believe have 6-7 coins toward the end of dance one. But they can have more.

So the really annoying scenario that might have made me really angry in the past is {what if this game gets really stupid}

The game gets really stupid if we spend all of pre-dance hammering down our top 6 townreads, and then it's clear what the lynch order is

So we have at the end of dance 1 7 pairs:
Town pair 1
Town pair 2
Town pair 3
{knows they will get lynched pair A}
{knows they will get lynched pair B}
{knows they will get lynched pair C}
{knows they will get lynched pair D}

Which means that *if* (and again, this is actually a statistically uncommon scenario) there are two scum men in "ABCD" and their combined coin count is over 8 (which is barely a statistical blip -- if there are two scum men it is not at all unlikely their combined count is over 8) which would mean if they wanted to they could actually lynch Town Pair 1, kill Town pair 2 at night, and then throw the IC on one of the two scum men that scumclaimed, thus rendering the IC useless and creating massive wifom about the remaining pairings. That might even be game winning at that point if no scum had been lynched at that point.

I am NOT saying this is a likely scenario. But I did, at some point in the past, start getting *very focused* on this particular scenario and I think we might want to think very briefly about how we want to actually play out this game

Yes, good thinking. We don’t just want to hand the NK over to scum.

I like my men

townie

smart.

[Krazy]

This is the pre-dance. There’s no lynching until the first dance. My, I have so much to teach you. <3

I know, Nancy, but the way we plan to play Dance 1 largely determines how we believe pairings should be formed in Pre-Dance

[Taly]

Right this is what it *seems like it should be* but this means creating a risk, which may only be like a 20% or lower risk, that the game gets exceptionally stupid

Basically I think overall town chances are stronger if we skip dance 1 and just totally throw the coins mechanic out the window because it exclusively helps scum

what do you mean by

"throw the coins mechanic out the window"

?

[Vedith]

Trying to plan the dance setup in 2019

[Nancy Drew 39]

Yes, Vedith seems too eager and isn’t trying to sort the ladies.

My

main

concern is making it to the dance.

Your MAIN concern, ought to be scumhunting.

[Vedith]

Your MAIN concern, ought to be scumhunting.

Not yet, no. I get to the dance, then I scum hunt!
I don't know what you want here, I'm being honest!

[Taly]

nancy

, do you any thoughts on anyone or anything aside from

vedith

?

this is girl talk

[Nancy Drew 39]

I mean ladies know how many coins they have yea? Can we just pair town read gents with high coin ladies, or am I missing something?

I would advice the most loaded of the ladies, to be the most selective, where their riches wind up.

[Krazy]

I mean ladies know how many coins they have yea? Can we just pair town read gents with high coin ladies, or am I missing something?

This is another strategy but it presents all the same risks of strategy 1, which is if we are wrong on some reads Dance 1 risks getting really, really stupid

I guess partly I just want to make it so there is less scum motivation in scum claiming and speed lynching town

But you may be partly right. I might need to think about this. But I think this is why we basically just have to no lynch. Otherwise if we mislynch once, and scum have 8+ combined coins, the game gets really stupid really fast.

I don't know if you noticed this yet but I really don't like the coins since they risk making pre-dance pointless and/or risks turning apparently optimal d1 play for town into a disaster.

But you maybe right--maybe we want the ladies with coins 5-8 to all hardclaim, and actually just pair in order of townreads there?

Otherwise if we have 2 scum gentlemen that, combined, have 8+ coins, dance 1 is just awful for town

[Nancy Drew 39]

Your MAIN concern, ought to be scumhunting.

Not yet, no. I get to the dance, then I scum hunt!
I don't know what you want here, I'm being honest!

One gent isn’t getting to the dance and we need to make sure, he’s the scummiest one.

[Dannflor]

The risk is pairing Mafia men with high coin ladies, yea? Is the solution not to claim coin totals and keep those in mind when making our town pairings (if we scum read the high coin ladies it could make the pairs messy but it would help eliminate the risk)?

Pedit: I’ll think about it more when I get home at a computer. There’s merit to discussing this, but my gut feeling is we shouldn’t just throw out reads for the first half of the game

[Krazy]

I think that's worth adding to the pool actually.

Scenario 1 (Potentially bad -- I was wrong in advocating it last time) -- Ignore coins, just figure out the top 6 townreads, lock them, let everyone else dance wherever

Scenario 2 (Probably OK) -- Ignore coins, keep the lynch order unclear, no lynch dance 1, plan to play the game as a mountainous in second dance

Scenario 3 (Maybe better?) -- Ladies with 5+ coins hardclaim coin counts, and we pair the top 4 townread men with them

If we are going with scenario 3 we do need to ask people to not yolo pair

But if we're going with scenario 2 yolo pairings are fine

So thoughts there would be good

[Nancy Drew 39]

nancy

, do you any thoughts on anyone or anything aside from

vedith

?

this is girl talk

So far both Dann and Krazy seem fine but it’s still too early to tell.

[Vedith]

One gent isn’t getting to the dance and we need to make sure, he’s the scummiest one.

I'll leave that for the rest of you to decide while I pick my tuxedo out.

[Krazy]

what do you mean by "throw the coins mechanic out the window"?

I was saying we should plan on literally everyone in the town hammering No lynch literally as soon as Dance 1 begins and to see anything else as a scumclaim.

[Dannflor]

I think reads can still be pulled out of pre-dance well, it’ll just be a little harder and take more time than a normal game due to all the fluff

[Dannflor]

I have some thoughts about the scenarios proposed but it’ll have to wait for a few hours till I’m home

[Nancy Drew 39]

One gent isn’t getting to the dance and we need to make sure, he’s the scummiest one.

I'll leave that for the rest of you to decide while I pick my tuxedo out.

You’re not going to offer up any scumreads? Seriously?

[Krazy]

Scenario 2 (Probably OK) -- Ignore coins, keep the lynch order unclear, no lynch dance 1, plan to play the game as a mountainous in second dance

Scenario 3 (Maybe better?) -- Ladies with 5+ coins hardclaim coin counts, and we pair the top 4 townread men with them

actually parts of these aren't exclusive

I think we could pair top 4 townread men with top 4 coin ladies, and then we STILL hammer no lynch as soon as dance 1 begins

Dance 1 is just the worst phase for town and we want out of it ASAP

[Krazy]

However, given that a mountainous in dance 2 can be really exhausting for town, I do think there is merit in going with at least some of the logic of scenario 2 -- have the top 4 coin ladies choose a man they townread that they can enjoy solving with or enjoy sorting rather than having it be over-determined by group consensus

[Taly]

Scenario 2 (Probably OK) -- Ignore coins, keep the lynch order unclear, no lynch dance 1, plan to play the game as a mountainous in second dance

Scenario 3 (Maybe better?) -- Ladies with 5+ coins hardclaim coin counts, and we pair the top 4 townread men with them

actually parts of these aren't exclusive

I think we could pair top 4 townread men with top 4 coin ladies, and then we STILL hammer no lynch as soon as dance 1 begins

Dance 1 is just the worst phase for town and we want out of it ASAP

are we able to

"No Lynch"

and go to Second Dance without lynching anyone?

@Fakegod, I want you to confirm this.