Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Taly]

I haven't looked at

PvtUrist

but

>

TheBrie and GE

most strike me as town, with me being a little less sure of

Moment

for his lack for explaining readslist and lower amounts of posts/thoughts
>

GE+Moment

does not sound very viable since

Moment

has not stated a townread and I didn't notice any that

Gamma

made, so I don't see the point in this unless they actively sort each other now which is.... ehhhh... because that interferes with interactions.

I would think of

GE+TheBrie

, but they're both ladies. lol

I'm asking

GE+PvtUrist+TheBrie+Moment

to discuss who they would think are good partners, and it's not exclusive amongst themselves.

But from the ISO-group,

TheBrie+Moment

is something I'd be happy with IF THEY CONSENT. :3

[Krazy]

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

not bad

[Taly]

I've never really seen a good scum read articulated on Moment. It's mostly been admitted be correlated with low posting.

I also trust

TheBrie+Moment

more because of this statement - this seems like a genuine attempt at reading

Moment

despite what people generally state.

TheBrie

, to be concise - thoughts on

Allo

,

PvtUrist

and

Moment

?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Oh right Pvt isn't paired yet

Tricky questions

who is more town out of moment and Pvt

who is more town out of gamma and brie

Right now, I trust Urist more with Gamma’s six coins and why not Brie/DT?

Didn’t SS say, he wanted to pair with Moment?

But again, I think it should be primarily up the individuals. We don’t need any more suicide pairings in this game.

[Krazy]

Weren't people townreading DT

I'm a little bit surprised I'm not seeing more pushback here already

what ever happened with that

first no one can give me a straight answer on why he's town and now no one will defend him from being listed as a bottom pairing?

[Dannflor]

I support PinkBall's suggestions for pairings. It'll be interesting what input the people actually involved provide however particularly because I think there's likely some scum in there.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Oh right Pvt isn't paired yet

Tricky questions

who is more town out of moment and Pvt

who is more town out of gamma and brie

Right now, I trust Urist more with Gamma’s six coins and why not Brie/DT?

Didn’t SS say, he wanted to pair with Moment?

But again, I think it should be primarily up the individuals. We don’t need any more suicide pairings in this game.

So, my pairing preference was by # of coins but rn, I think Brie is townier than Gamma.

[Dannflor]

I'm not very hot on DT either, but I don't have a strong opinion on him yet either way.

I need to ISO him and figure it out, gun-to-head I like Moment better than him

[TheBrie]

you were only top town read at the beginning before most people had posted. As people townier than you started posting, you moved town.

Why would this make someone null rather than town, just normal town as others?
You get 3

because he was only town with regards to being townier than the others. It was actually null, but placed in perspective, I made him town to distinguish.

Null means you could easy flip either wy, or aren't reading the player much in either direction. How can someone be null, and townier simultaneously.?

If Allo flips scum, the simplest way to explain his flubbing is to say that he initially put his buddy Dannflor as town and then his team later decided that Allo should distance from Dann, and he did so very awkwardly.

I'm actually calling you out SS, that by saying that seems like you're planning a push on obvious town pair Nancy/Dann in case your scumpartner Allo flips

And Pinkball says what I wanted to say. Which put Pinkball as town for me. Cause there's no way in anything she's scum with SS and Allo if they're scum.

Oh right Pvt isn't paired yet

Tricky questions

who is more town out of moment and Pvt

who is more town out of gamma and brie

I don't know which is more town, but I think I'd be better with Moment.

So my final suggestion is:
PvtUrist/Gamma
Moment/TheBrie
DoubtingThomas/SS
Allonely, I'm so lonely (8)

in favour, though it's up to the gentlemen to ask, and us ladies to accept. I think Gamma would accept. What SS has said here, points away from Allo and SS both as scum. Because SS would have to choice between beign paired with her partner, or leaving him out, and she shows no worry.

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

Mmm. Want that answer.

[Pink Ball]

Please stop.

Funny that this is probably the towniest post Moment made in my mind lol

and it's still basically NAI

From my point of view that was the scummiest post from Moment. Seemed like fake frustration, something easy to do instead of actually playing the game.

[Nancy Drew 39]

If Allo flips scum, the simplest way to explain his flubbing is to say that he initially put his buddy Dannflor as town and then his team later decided that Allo should distance from Dann, and he did so very awkwardly.

Oh ok I get your point, good catch.

But Dann is town tho

If anything, this would imply that Allo is town. With whatever degree of confidence we accept the premises that (a) if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum and (b) Dann is town, we must accept the conclusion that (c) Allo is town with the same degree of confidence.

Probably not more than, like, 60% or 70%, depending on how confident you are in (b). But I don't know if Allo is the best choice to be left behind.

Also I have this nasty feeling that I'm going to be the last lady unpaired and I'm going to have to choose who dies.

The problem with this game, is so many lurkers and that makes it difficult to move the game forward.

[Taly]

@Mod, Nancy+Dann couple became a thing at 2928

Just to make sure it was seen; since it wasn't listed in the pair list.

[Krazy]

I guess the towniness of bottom pairings is kinda a question

I still have no idea how serious RC is about leaving, and I have no idea what firebringer will do

I'm more discussing pairings in the scenario where we actually vote on people after the first flip, but I don't even know if that will happen

We could do a soft vote for how many people would vote to lynch SS *assuming allo flips town*

If Allo is excluded and flips red then we play out dance 1 and discuss

If Allo flips town I would like to know before pre-dance ends whether the town would like to flip SS immediately or not

Should we be trying to speed lynch SS to prevent RC from leaving or do we have a reason to wait to see whether RC leaves or not?

[Krazy]

Like I honestly kinda don't know what to do with multiple pairings trying to leave

I don't know whether I should be literally trying to force RC to stay to second dance or not or how that would help

If he's suiciding anyway is it better to just let him do that? I townlean both sides of that pairing still so this is kinda a messy situation

hmm

[Nancy Drew 39]

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

Yeah, I don’t get how either are linked, short of them both scumreading each other.

[TheBrie]

I've never really seen a good scum read articulated on Moment. It's mostly been admitted be correlated with low posting.

I also trust

TheBrie+Moment

more because of this statement - this seems like a genuine attempt at reading

Moment

despite what people generally state.

TheBrie

, to be concise - thoughts on

Allo

,

PvtUrist

and

Moment

?

Allo keeps saying things that feel weird, and being inconsistent.
Pvt hasn't factored on my radar, but I've noticed he's not afraid to go against the flow with his reads.
Moment's posts so far aren't bad, and haven't pinged me though it would be nice if he could be a little more active. i'd prefer to see a reads list before partnering with, or an attempt at one. I'd probably fail badly at making a comprehensive list right now.

As to DT, Nothing pinged me as scummy, but he's not been around enough lately to impress himself as town either.

[Ankamius]

I don't know whether I should be literally trying to force RC to stay to second dance or not or how that would help

you're wasting your time

it's optimal to wait until second dance to suicide but I'm 100% certain he's deadest on suiciding the moment first dance begins and nothing you say will change that

[Krazy]

I guess Firebringer was mostly just threatening Vedith to keep his act together rather than actually saying he would leave so there's that at least

So assuming Fire was just yanking his chain then it's just RC+Ank that's threatening to leave which then leaves Vedith with a potential speed hammer?

Should I be doing

"If Allo, RC, and Ank all flip town, do we lynch SS"? I feel like that's a stupid question but it's one we should answer maybe?

[Nancy Drew 39]

Please stop.

Funny that this is probably the towniest post Moment made in my mind lol

and it's still basically NAI

Yeah, I don’t understand the strong Moment townreads, we hardly have any content to really have a correct read on her. She’s still a hard nullread at this point for me. We need Gamma, Moment and DT to all post more.

[Pink Ball]

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

If we were to assume that the statement "if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum" is true, and we also assume that "Dann is town" is true, then by contraposition, we could conclude that "Allo is town" is also true.

Therefore, the more confident we are in those two premises, the more confident we can be in the conclusion.

Or, to use words instead of logic: it's not likely that scum-Allo flubs his read like that on a townie. Since you're confident Dann is town, it means that Allo is less likely scum for it.

That's not how logic works. If p is "Dann Is scum" and q is "Allo is scum", then:
P Q p-->q
T T T
T F F
F T T
F F T

So, Dann is scum implies Allo is scum is a true statement if both are indeed scum. If Dann is scum and Allo isn't, then the statement is false. But if Dann is town, Allo could be either town or scum, since the premise implied that Dann was scum, and he isn't. So the promise isn't broken if Dann is town, thus making Allo's alignment a mistery regarding Dann.

[Dannflor]

Yea honestly, I'm just waiting for the lower people to post more. I'm hoping more interactions there will be revealing

[Dr Worm]

RC is PLAYING MIND HURT GAMES with THREAT of LEAVING!! DR WORM doens"t BELEIVE!!

[Something_Smart]

I'm just a poor girl and nobody loves me
She's just a poor girl from a poor family
Spare her her life from this monstrosity

I have 1 coin

I'm not sold Allo didn't just drop his town read of me because I started hard pushing him.

I rarely see scum doing stuff like that.

But I don't know if Allo is the best choice to be left behind.

Also I have this nasty feeling that I'm going to be the last lady unpaired and I'm going to have to choose who dies.

Who would you choose to be left behind, if you had to choose?

That's the thing, so many of the remaining gents haven't done much since I replaced in... so I really don't know. I'd probably just go with popular opinion.

[Dr Worm]

PINKBELLS THANSK YOU for LOGIC lesson!! DR WORM KNEW IT TOO.. but HARD TIME explaining!!

[Something_Smart]

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

If we were to assume that the statement "if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum" is true, and we also assume that "Dann is town" is true, then by contraposition, we could conclude that "Allo is town" is also true.

Therefore, the more confident we are in those two premises, the more confident we can be in the conclusion.

Or, to use words instead of logic: it's not likely that scum-Allo flubs his read like that on a townie. Since you're confident Dann is town, it means that Allo is less likely scum for it.

That's not how logic works. If p is "Dann Is scum" and q is "Allo is scum", then:
P Q p-->q
T T T
T F F
F T T
F F T

So, Dann is scum implies Allo is scum is a true statement if both are indeed scum. If Dann is scum and Allo isn't, then the statement is false. But if Dann is town, Allo could be either town or scum, since the premise implied that Dann was scum, and he isn't. So the promise isn't broken if Dann is town, thus making Allo's alignment a mistery regarding Dann.

The premise is Allo scum implies Dann scum, not Dann scum implies Allo scum. The idea was that if Allo was in fact scum who fudged a read, it was more likely he fudged it on a partner.