Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Krazy]

Yeah, I feel like this is a pointless line of logic until we see what people will actually do. I just feel like it is really incorrect to not have a sense of what we are asking Vedith to do, other than not vote, and I don't know right now what I'm supposed to do, other than not vote.

I want to use the rest of predance but deciding what we want to do in dance 1 kind of hinges on moment and gamma getting caught up at least kinda so....

*shrug*

[Dr Worm]

DENIALING THE ANTISEEDANT!!

[Nancy Drew 39]

Weren't people townreading DT

I'm a little bit surprised I'm not seeing more pushback here already

what ever happened with that

first no one can give me a straight answer on why he's town and now no one will defend him from being listed as a bottom pairing?

In terms of content, I have DT and Urist about equal with Urist being slightly higher but, yeah, I suppose I could possibly be biased by high activity rates. I wasn’t impressed with Moment’s entrance but that could change. in terms of content, we have Urist/DT/Moment, in that order and I need more to correctly sort Gamma/DT and especially Moment.

[Something_Smart]

And Pinkball says what I wanted to say. Which put Pinkball as town for me. Cause there's no way in anything she's scum with SS and Allo if they're scum.

If Allo and I both flip scum then I could understand you townreading Pink for that interaction. But if I'm not mistaken, it sounds like you're calling him unconditionally town based off of it...?

[Something_Smart]

DENIALING THE ANTISEEDANT!!

I'm not denying the antecedent, Pink was just confused about what my premise was.

[Nancy Drew 39]

@Mod, Nancy+Dann couple became a thing at 2928

Just to make sure it was seen; since it wasn't listed in the pair list.

And PB + Worm.

[Pink Ball]

It works in the other way too, SS. If Allo is scum and Dann is town, then the premise "Allo scum implies Dann is scum" was false and doesn't imply that both are town if Allo is town of if Dann is town

[Something_Smart]

Well yeah, if the premise is false then obviously what it implies isn't necessarily true. But my point is that since the premise has a decent likelihood of being true, so does the conclusion.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I guess the towniness of bottom pairings is kinda a question

I still have no idea how serious RC is about leaving, and I have no idea what firebringer will do

I'm more discussing pairings in the scenario where we actually vote on people after the first flip, but I don't even know if that will happen

We could do a soft vote for how many people would vote to lynch SS *assuming allo flips town*

If Allo is excluded and flips red then we play out dance 1 and discuss

If Allo flips town I would like to know before pre-dance ends whether the town would like to flip SS immediately or not

Should we be trying to speed lynch SS to prevent RC from leaving or do we have a reason to wait to see whether RC leaves or not?

Then they will still leave second dance anyway and I don’t think we should “speedlynch” anyone.

[Dr Worm]

ALLOWMANGER no more TOP TONW IN DR WORM"S BRAIN!!

TOPPEST TOWNS now KRAZY FURBRANGER TALLY PINKBELLS

[Nancy Drew 39]

Like I honestly kinda don't know what to do with multiple pairings trying to leave

I don't know whether I should be literally trying to force RC to stay to second dance or not or how that would help

If he's suiciding anyway is it better to just let him do that? I townlean both sides of that pairing still so this is kinda a messy situation

hmm

That’s what I’m saying, I don’t see them not leaving. so I oppose speedlynching, since it won’t affect the outcome anyway.

[Dr Worm]

mebbe NACNY TOO but HARD FOR DR WORM TO SAY THAT!!

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don't know whether I should be literally trying to force RC to stay to second dance or not or how that would help

you're wasting your time

it's optimal to wait until second dance to suicide but I'm 100% certain he's deadest on suiciding the moment first dance begins and nothing you say will change that

Yeah, I wish that wasn’t the case but speedlynching to force him to stay, is never. a good solution. If it would change the outcome, \_0_/ but there’s no reason to think it would.

[Allomancer]

The bold was broken, so I wouldn't have noticed him asking if no one had commented. I'm not going. I feel like Allo or I would end up leaving. I couldn't trust him, and I feel as if he might be townreading me as a pocketing attempt. Just cause I'm surprised to be someone's second highest town lady. though he said unpaired, so I suppose it's reasonable. And it does feel like being desperate to dance with someone.

Allo, if you really want to dance with me, you'll have to talk to me first. Give me flowers, or explain why you town and scum read certain people. And be more careful when referring to players.

Ok, so, Brie, how are you today? I'm kind of offended, to be honest. To think I would walk out on a lady? Nonsense! Seriously, though if I were scum who was trying to pocket you, why would I walk out on you? One scum life is more valuable than a town life; it wouldn't be worth it for a scum to die just to take out a townie, unless it was a very powerful townie, which, given your post count, I assume you aren't.

Anyway, not to be rude, but Taly and the three paired ladies are all higher on my townlist then you. You're null-town at the moment.

Spoiler: Also these are for you

[Krazy]

{Dannflor}
{Nancy Drew, Taly}
{Krazy}
{Vedith}
{FakeGod}

No one else has posted enough to be read.

Top 6 ain't bad.

you know I only just now noticed that this top tier quality shitpost was made a single minute after Allo's list

[Ankamius]

yeah just pretend we both didn't match at all

it has the least ability to impact the gamestate that way

[Nancy Drew 39]

I guess Firebringer was mostly just threatening Vedith to keep his act together rather than actually saying he would leave so there's that at least

So assuming Fire was just yanking his chain then it's just RC+Ank that's threatening to leave which then leaves Vedith with a potential speed hammer?

Should I be doing

"If Allo, RC, and Ank all flip town, do we lynch SS"? I feel like that's a stupid question but it's one we should answer maybe?

I’d be extremely shocked if Ank/RC is anything but tvt.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Errrr why would Dann being town make Allo town? That correlation sounds more wacky

If we were to assume that the statement "if Allo is scum, then Dann is scum" is true, and we also assume that "Dann is town" is true, then by contraposition, we could conclude that "Allo is town" is also true.

Therefore, the more confident we are in those two premises, the more confident we can be in the conclusion.

Or, to use words instead of logic: it's not likely that scum-Allo flubs his read like that on a townie. Since you're confident Dann is town, it means that Allo is less likely scum for it.

That's not how logic works. If p is "Dann Is scum" and q is "Allo is scum", then:
P Q p-->q
T T T
T F F
F T T
F F T

So, Dann is scum implies Allo is scum is a true statement if both are indeed scum. If Dann is scum and Allo isn't, then the statement is false. But if Dann is town, Allo could be either town or scum, since the premise implied that Dann was scum, and he isn't. So the promise isn't broken if Dann is town, thus making Allo's alignment a mistery regarding Dann.

+1

Yea honestly, I'm just waiting for the lower people to post more. I'm hoping more interactions there will be revealing

+1

[Nancy Drew 39]

RC is PLAYING MIND HURT GAMES with THREAT of LEAVING!! DR WORM doens"t BELEIVE!!

Worm doesn’t know RC, if you think he’s bluffing.

[Krazy]

Worm who would you prefer get excluded?

[Nancy Drew 39]

The bold was broken, so I wouldn't have noticed him asking if no one had commented. I'm not going. I feel like Allo or I would end up leaving. I couldn't trust him, and I feel as if he might be townreading me as a pocketing attempt. Just cause I'm surprised to be someone's second highest town lady. though he said unpaired, so I suppose it's reasonable. And it does feel like being desperate to dance with someone.

Allo, if you really want to dance with me, you'll have to talk to me first. Give me flowers, or explain why you town and scum read certain people. And be more careful when referring to players.

Ok, so, Brie, how are you today? I'm kind of offended, to be honest. To think I would walk out on a lady? Nonsense! Seriously, though if I were scum who was trying to pocket you, why would I walk out on you? One scum life is more valuable than a town life; it wouldn't be worth it for a scum to die just to take out a townie, unless it was a very powerful townie, which, given your post count, I assume you aren't.

Anyway, not to be rude, but Taly and the three paired ladies are all higher on my townlist then you. You're null-town at the moment.

Spoiler: Also these are for you

5, there are 5 paired ladies: Fire, Ank, PB, me and Taly.

[TheBrie]

And Pinkball says what I wanted to say. Which put Pinkball as town for me. Cause there's no way in anything she's scum with SS and Allo if they're scum.

If Allo and I both flip scum then I could understand you townreading Pink for that interaction. But if I'm not mistaken, it sounds like you're calling him unconditionally town based off of it...?

Point. Thanks for calling me out of that. Town read is half from that mechanical aspect which I'm now doubting. The other half was from the mindmelding. What someone says exactly what you were thinking, you don't want to think they could be scum.

The bold was broken, so I wouldn't have noticed him asking if no one had commented. I'm not going. I feel like Allo or I would end up leaving. I couldn't trust him, and I feel as if he might be townreading me as a pocketing attempt. Just cause I'm surprised to be someone's second highest town lady. though he said unpaired, so I suppose it's reasonable. And it does feel like being desperate to dance with someone.

Allo, if you really want to dance with me, you'll have to talk to me first. Give me flowers, or explain why you town and scum read certain people. And be more careful when referring to players.

Ok, so, Brie, how are you today? I'm kind of offended, to be honest. To think I would walk out on a lady? Nonsense! Seriously, though if I were scum who was trying to pocket you, why would I walk out on you? One scum life is more valuable than a town life; it wouldn't be worth it for a scum to die just to take out a townie, unless it was a very powerful townie, which, given your post count, I assume you aren't.

Anyway, not to be rude, but Taly and the three paired ladies are all higher on my townlist then you. You're null-town at the moment.

Spoiler: Also these are for you

I'll explain further. I think I'd most likely being the one walking out, because I think other people could talk me into it with you, and I really don't have a strong town read on you. But a paranoid little bit of me thinks maybe you're town who secretly thinks I might be scum, and will end up walking out on me. Which is stupid, and you should be offended. But still, I think there's a chance of us both being town and ending up scum reading the other and leaving. So really I just want to interact a bit more so that I think I understand you better, and that's less likely to happen.

Back at the beginning you though Vedith was scum. Do you still, and why do you have the read you do?
Aslo, thoughts on Krazy. Dis you think Taly should have paired with him?

Thanks for the flowers. They're lovely.

[Dr Worm]

Worm who would you prefer get excluded?

ALLOWMANGER or PVIRUST

[Something_Smart]

What someone says exactly what you were thinking, you don't want to think they could be scum.

It's true that you don't WANT to think they could be scum.

That said, that's different from saying it actually affects the chance they are scum.

It depends on the scum equity of the statement, and also how difficult it would be to come up with that line of reasoning as scum. In this case, I don't really think either of those merits townreading Pink for saying that... if he's scum, it's a great way to cast doubt on multiple slots at once, and it's not exactly a rocket science thing to come up with.

I don't think Pink is scum, but I also don't think he should be townread specifically for pointing that out, because I bet he'd do it as either alignment. Make sense?

[Krazy]

ALLOMASTER - SINCERE and reading EVRYTHING w/o picking at DUMB SUPERFICIAL STUFF

it seemed like you felt pretty good about this read at the time, when did he stop being town in your heart?