Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[Dannflor]

Hey

[Dannflor]

bout to take on the Thomas meta dive challenge 2k19 wish me luck boys and girls

[Pink Ball]

Good like my lo... I mean Dann

[Dannflor]

This is difficult. Gut reads I'm just gonna go 2, 3, 5 as town and 1 and 4 as scum

[Dannflor]

Welp I suck

[Pink Ball]

@Nancy yeah I know an s/s pairing is suboptimal specially when people stated they were null or scumreading them. If that's the case, I think TheBrie is the town between her and Moment. Either way, it's a good pair to lynch, better than DT and SS. Like, they've been using the argument "you're scumreading people for inactivity"; so what, you have less content and I don't like the content you have compared to the rest. If your only defense is that, eat rope, or start engaging more. (This is to no particular player btw)

[Pink Ball]

Wait what are you all talking about? I want to play too

[Dannflor]

Look in Krazy's ISO, he setup a meta dive game on DT.

Wall or two incoming before I go to bed, we need a flip tomorrow.

[DoubtingThomas]

Probably need to expand on why 4131 pings me a bit more.

Metaing DT is not super useful because his posts this game are much more snippy and succinct than either his town or scum games. I think, as either alignment, he has frequently been really lost and needed real time interaction to get a grip on the game. However *there is a chance that him being lost might be SI* and that he'd have more of an agenda as town.

The types of posts that really stand out to me in DT's scum games are posts like these:

Spoiler:

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

I wouldn't say impossible. At the end of the game there's always a question of why someone is there. Night Kills generally aim for people who are either super Towny, an obvious PR or sometimes just someone who is too close to solving the game.

That being said, it can be very hard to catch a skilled scum player who has a scum range which closely emulates their town. If someone gets that reputation, people will probably just start lynching that individual before end game to be safe

It is not impossible because they have exactly different players they need to lynch to win

For example if I am in a game of 13 players, there are usually 3 scums.

Say I am town. My goal is to find 3 scums out of the 12 players, or 9 towns out of the 12 players (excluding myself)

Say I am scum. My goal is to mislynch the other 10 players (excluding myself and two teammates, total of 3 mafias in a 13 player game)

In the process, maybe I can also bus my other two teammates for some credit, but in the end I have to kill at least 7 town players as scum (because 3 towns - 3 scums is a parity win condition for scum so i need to at LEAST kill 7 players), whereas as town, I have to find and kill other 3 scum players, while in the process towns will be night killed and potentially be lynched, but I can theoretically win the game after only 5 players have died (by lynching all 3 scums back to back to back meanwhile during the nights 2 towns are being night killed)

I know that explanation kinda sucked, but that is basically the core reason.

Don't forget, during the process of the game, the logic/reasoning for one person to use for scum reading a town as a town and wolf and also scum reading a scum/bussing a scum as a town/wolf will have differences, inherently

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves

LOOK

like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT

LOVES

to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly

BELIEVES

in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

And there isn't some post here that's just like "Oh yeah, that's a scum post for DT", however thinking of these posts, and DT's tendency to kinda of narrate what 'scum would do' much more as scum than as town, and also talk about his own qualities and scum play, 4131 was a minor ping for me.

It also makes me put more scrutiny on posts like:

Spoiler:

I need to see and engage with you more

Doubting

I'm not getting your reads on

Dr. W

and

Allo

? Both people I'm suspecting at the moment?

Also I'm still confident with

Nancy

being town.

Do you have any questions for me?

i think nancy is townish too for her read on RC

i liked allo's tone

i like W's tone

it's just gut tone read. they seem to have "i dont care about what others think" and expresses opinion in a bold way

of course, scums also try to manipulate this kinda tone, but the genuinity is different slightly, imo, when they are scum and town

i mean i can answer ur questions if u have specific ones. these are where my reads came from in general tho

i also partly dont like explaining every single small things that come to my mind because

1) chances are they are wrong
2) chances are my own opinion of them change later on
3) they clog up the thread unnecessarily we honestly don't need every single detail of thoughts that I have

now, if you accept my love reqeust and we get a lovers chat, i can, of course, explain all the little things you want

Remember, this is the *main reason* I was tempted to consider a townread on DT, but actually the second half of the post is at least in the neighborhood of the sort of meta-theorizing rambling that DT does a lot as scum. This was his towniest post, and after reading his scum games, it almost pings me. So I feel like there's very few posts from DT right now where I can point to it and say, "Damn, DT is obvtown, we shouldn't lynch here."

Doesn't make him obvscum. I say this because I know Taly still wants PB first and I'm willing to hear her out there.

I am looking at Krazy's meta case on me as S_S pointed it out on PT

Krazy, first of all, I really like this post.

I disagree with the content itself, but the way you approached my meta, the way you wrote this post, and the effort level you put in seems incredibly townie and feels like comes from a very townie motive/mindset. i love it. i high town read taly as well. i dont think i am ever lynching you and taly

I think it's so good that I feel obligated to defend myself/talk to you who I now think is town so that you don't needlessly tunnel me.

I think this could seem as 'overdefensive' to you and might even make you scum read me harder, but i have to say what i have to say in a geunine attempt in order to get this game going, imo.

A lot of the games you pulled me are from August 2018. Now, you might think that's only 6 months, but it's simply a very different representation of my game.

I started playing forum mafia altogether on July 2018. So by August 2018, I probably had maximum of like 5 games under my belt.

The more recent games you pulled with Brassherald in (I think that's the only game you pulled from recent timeline?) is a fair game.

But the difference between the way I approach the game of mafia on August 2018 and now? Immense. Now I think I played about 100 games on Mafia Universe only. The amount of new experience I've gotten literally changes the way I even think about the game. I will definitely be approaching the game differently and simply just talking in a different tone. I strongly suggest you don't use games from August 2018 to 'meta' read me. It doesn't apply to my meta, simple.

If you really want my town meta, you are more than welcome to come to MafiaUniverse and check my post history. I have couple town games there that you might like.

I love the effort you put in reading/pulling links from those games tho. I think the way you talk about them is townie.

I like the way you approached my scum meta based on a game that's more recent. It's a really good attempt. I don't see a scum motive in the way you treated my scum meta to find similarities to my posts here.

However, you talking about me referring to my own game as slightly SI is just factually wrong. I do that as town. I mean I consider myself a pretty strong player. There is no reason for me to only talk about certain things as either alignment. The truth is, I will be talking about my game in that sense both as town and as scum, but it's a fair game that you use that to scum read me because you only saw that kinda post when I am scum.

The game where I replaced in that's also recent. I play very differently there than where I played scum in the worst's game. The truth is, I signed up for multiple games at a time wihtout waiting to hear back from sign ups. I got into a scum game and I am a really fucking energetic scum. I love scumming so much so i start posting a lot. Like how I went full gibberish on brassherald when I scummed. In that game where I subbed in, I didn't expect/want to sub in. I was a townie and the game was so fucking weird. I was uninvested and low motivated. I posted like 1/10th of what I posted in my scum game.

I tried skimming your post and then re reading it because some of the points you were trying to make were quite unclear to me. I guess that's only natural becaues you are trying to meta read me when you haven't played a single game with me. When you are re-reading in an unbiased manner post game, compared to when you play in a game and interact with other players you have to solve their alignment for live, it will feel different.

I think I remember you saying me being lost is more scum indicative?

I know you probably won't trust this but, again, the fact is more people who know me on MU say I am more 'logical' in my posts when I scum. People shit on my town game because I "throw shits on the wall, hoping it sticks"

I have tried to improve and change up my town game and i have been doing pretty well about it, but the truth is, i am not "lost" because I am scum.

Do remember, I am a player who strongly wants to make sure I say stuff as both alignment. That is not to say I will be saying the exact same shit as either alignment every time. I would be playing more pro-wolf as wolf. But, when I talk 'about' a major topic, like my scum game or how I play the game, or whatever, I know I will be talking about that as both alignment. Don't think I am scum because of that.

Krazy, again, I think the post you made scum casing me itself is pretty god damn good. I would love to interact with you so you can get a better grasp of my alignment. I am happy to work with my town reads, so you can get to where I am. Feel free to pressure me or ask me questions where you see fit. My play is more than my previous game post history

[DoubtingThomas]

bout to take on the Thomas meta dive challenge 2k19 wish me luck boys and girls

tl;dr 1 of my wall post

meta dive challenging my posts from august is not worth it

[Pink Ball]

Game 1 is obvtown, I think 3 and 4 are town too
Game 5 is scum
Game 2 I really don't know, I'm inclined to believe scum for some similarities with 5 but he was replacing in a slot so I'm missing context.

[DoubtingThomas]

Those of you who are doing the DT meta challenges, I challenge you to read first 20 posts of me from this game and do the same

I am wondering how similar they are, tbh. how much I grew as a player

[DoubtingThomas]

DT meta challenges answer

Spoiler:

I quickly went back and checked/went from my memory but I think these are 99.9% correct

Game 1 - Town
Game 2 - Town
Game 3 - Town
Game 4 - Town
Game 5 - Scum, but it was multiball and I knew there was another scum faction

:shrug:

was interesting to do these myself, tbh

[TheBrie]

@Brie, why did you accept moment’s invite after he had issued one to SS?

Mostly because I was afraid life would hardly let me on before the deadline. i had a couple days of full on work (waking up at three am), and I didn't know then how tired I would be the rest of the time. Bad reason.
Also, I wasn't really townreading SS then, and didn't really want her with Moment.

i don't really see scum!Moment asking scum!SS when he had a reasonable chance of town!me accepting. So currently townreading SS. Not townreading Moment, but I want to see him post again before making a final judgement.

[TheBrie]

This is difficult. Gut reads I'm just gonna go 2, 3, 5 as town and 1 and 4 as scum

Am I the only one who found this incomprehensible?

[Pink Ball]

Those of you who are doing the DT meta challenges, I challenge you to read first 20 posts of me from this game and do the same

I am wondering how similar they are, tbh. how much I grew as a player

Yeah, your game has changed. Like, game 1 was pretty obvtown, and this is harder to be certain of your alignment. I'm starting to think you're town

[Gamma Emerald]

Read some games and feel better about this flipping scum. I will try to write something coherent tomorrow before I get too swept up in marathon

Brie maybe but less confident there, Moment sounds like he did toward end of Halloween so feeling a bit better town there.

Where is Taly voting?

@Gamma, sell me on Brie over DT.

This is still outstanding right?

[Gamma Emerald]

what plan were you talking about with RC that showed he had a way to win this game and why did it revolve around him and Ank's death?

RC had near-lock townreads on Moment/Brie and Dann/Nancy, and the plan was simply to kill everyone except them. The problem was that RC's reads couldn't have been trusted to be 100% genuine while he was alive, so he needed to die for it to work.

Don't leave me amoment until the end. He's barely active, I'm swamped by real life, and my skills at reading are terrible.

I townread Moment early on, maily because I liked his clear post style, it dipped a little in the middle, especially as he never really was answering my questions (I asked him about Allomancer among over things), then in the end i decided to go for nice and uncomplicated, and town read, and accepted his offer. While interestingly my read on Allo was kinda opposite. Started out thinking he was scum, slowly grew to think maybe he was town, but when it really came down to choosing, I went and doubted again.

Current read on Moment: Basically I'm annoyed at him, because he's not said a thing. He said "Ego" in out PT, then disappeared, not giving me a chance to read him. I don't know what he really thinks about things, and he doesn't seem to care about the game enough. He might be busy, but since I had shred a few thoughts, he could have at least commented on them.

What I said then was that I townread SS, and also DT, but not as much.
From my limited experience with Nancy, I think she town here. And Taly's argument for why she wouldn't have ICed Pvt makes sense, and on top of other bits of towniness, iI want her to stick around.

I'll have to have a closer look at Gamma. I know she can be mislynched, sometimes with little scum involvement, but I've not actually put the work into looking at her meta. (Honestly, i can't remember when I looked at meta without someone linking a game first. I've gotten lazy.)

An interesting wall, I'll note this for later.

[Gamma Emerald]

Taly asked in our PT for some more meta on DT but I figure I should just keep it here since that's where my push is.

Instead of risking turning myself into a caricature of myself (by doing a massive wallpost going over posts from other games etc. etc.) though I'd rather just ask you guys to take the "Krazy Iso Challenge"

Here's how it works -- I provide 5 links to games with the flip not being stated
You read the first 20 posts in the iso (assuming there are that many) and make a call about what you think the flip will be
And then you make a note and go on to the next one

The idea is that if you are consistently guessing wrong, you probably shouldn't try to use meta for the player
But if you're guessing right, you can maybe solidify what you think is a tell for the player

I will do the spoilers in a future post -- can you identify someone's alignment within 20 posts of their iso?

Here's the

DT Krazy Iso Challenge:

Reminder -- the rules are, don't try to go find the flip. Just read the first 20 posts and make a call, town or scum?

Game 1: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 2 -- DT replacing Lady Angel: (LA included for ref) https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 3 -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 4 -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

Game 5 -- https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I could spoiler the answers, and obviously you can just look up the answers, but I think you will be more likely to take the challenge seriously if you can't find them with just one click.

I don't promise there is an even ratio here; the selections are based on available games. So they could be all town, if the player doesn't roll town that much.

And in terms of second guessing, I will say that in setting up this exercise, I am now back to watching to lynch DT

So there's that. This thing where I end up flipping between wanting to lynch him and second guessing myself 2-3 times a day is kinda why I want a flip here because it's making it really hard to focus on other iso dives/meta dives.

Shall I try this?

[Gamma Emerald]

DT Krazy Iso Challenge

TONE READS!!
1, 2, 5 = SAME ALIGNMENT!!
3, 4 = SAME ALIGNMENT!!

Oh look he returns
Do you think one set is town over the other?

[DoubtingThomas]

gamme, do you have an opinion on krazy's meta case on me? as that seems to be a hot topic in the thread rn

[Krazy]

Shall I try this?

dooo it

[Krazy]

Spoiler:

Game 5 - Scum, but it was multiball and I knew there was another scum faction

that's actually maybe something to think about hmmm

[Krazy]

Two little things

DT, what's your read on SS rn? How are you feeling about your own pairing?

Second, for some reason I really dislike trying to read things on MU, like I don't know what it is about the aesthetic of the site but it bothers me the way posts are organized, even though obviously it's like, pretty similar to here

Sorry, just finished some insane marathon nonsense, pretty wiped right now, I will think about your wall up there in more detail tomorrow morning

[Krazy]

I think I remember you saying me being lost is more scum indicative?

Yeah, based on

Spoiler:

how I feel about your play in game 5

I feel like you are more likely to ask people to give you direction as scum, and that's kinda like how I felt you played the end of pre-dance, particularly irt my slot

you seem more strong-willed as town, although as you said, those games are not your most recent play I guess