Merchant's Daughter [Endgame]

[PvtUrist]

I hard scumread

Gamma

. My vote on him isn't

"I think he might be town but PoE is leading me to..."

This post's NAI. I'd expect both town!Tal and scum!Taly to post this. Ok, maybe not town!Tal.

[PvtUrist]

2) This Moment!TB --> Urist!Gamma lynch seems way too easy, more importantly, there's next to no resistance, which lines up with wolves theory.

If you're saying

Gamma+Your

lynch is too easy, then what do you think about

Moment+TB

?

There was virtually no resistance there until I countered the idea that scum was on it based on

DT's

flip.

So why are Moment!TB scum again?

[PvtUrist]

becaue I'm not convinced that there's scum within Moment!TB!Gamma.

[Taly]

Are you trying to shame my scumread away from you? Because #5244 feels oddly emotionally manipulative.

-"universally townread"
- "disregarding the multiple times I've been weary of pocketed"
- "looked deeper into why I'm being townread to see scum-motivation"
- "consistently asking why people find me so towny"

-probably incorrect into rose tinted glasses
- can't be pocket if you're scam
- scam can do this
- scam should (did) do this

I'm not sure what you're intention is of on your second chapter. Do you imply that it's incorrect? The method is incorrect?

I'm not shaming the scumread you have on me.

I'm pointing out that you haven't really explained it yet beyond the fact that you distrust the universal townread on me.

And I'm telling you right now, I'm well-aware of the townreads on me and I've actively tried to discern whether there is town or scum motivation behind them.

I hard scumread

Gamma

. My vote on him isn't

"I think he might be town but PoE is leading me to..."

This post's NAI. I'd expect both town!Tal and scum!Taly to post this. Ok, maybe not town!Tal.

Have you ever played with me? I don't remember us playing together for you to make this assessment?

And I'm telling you my push on

Gamma

is because I scumread them. I don't think you've acknowledged that yet.

2) This Moment!TB --> Urist!Gamma lynch seems way too easy, more importantly, there's next to no resistance, which lines up with wolves theory.

If you're saying

Gamma+Your

lynch is too easy, then what do you think about

Moment+TB

?

There was virtually no resistance there until I countered the idea that scum was on it based on

DT's

flip.

So why are Moment!TB scum again?

I'm not 100% on either being scum yet. I'm confident one is town. They're more PoE to me than

Gamma

.

I'm confident

Krazy/Dann/Nancy

are all town, and I think

DT+Gamma

partner is very likely, and I think a flip on

Gamma

would help figure the game out through associatives.

Why is

TheBrie+Moment

both town to you?

[Gamma Emerald]

Are you trying to shame my scumread away from you? Because #5244 feels oddly emotionally manipulative.

-"universally townread"
- "disregarding the multiple times I've been weary of pocketed"
- "looked deeper into why I'm being townread to see scum-motivation"
- "consistently asking why people find me so towny"

-probably incorrect into rose tinted glasses
- can't be pocket if you're scam
- scam can do this
- scam should (did) do this

I'm not sure what you're intention is of on your second chapter. Do you imply that it's incorrect? The method is incorrect?

This post kinda matches how I felt about that post actually. It's something I've decided to call the "Monster Under The Bed" Tell: scum having to discredit ICs and other locktown players when they can't eliminate them normally or have to deal with them in the moment.

[Taly]

So we're just going to ignore all my points on

Gamma

being scum and write it off through the idea that I'm scum?

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

That's a very coincidental read reverse

Gamma

.

[PvtUrist]

So we're just going to ignore all my points on

Gamma

being scum and write it off through the idea that I'm scum?

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

more apples

ok y Gam scam

That's a very coincidental read reverse

Gamma

.

0.0

[PvtUrist]

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

This is NAI/scam bamboozle

[Gamma Emerald]

So we're just going to ignore all my points on

Gamma

being scum and write it off through the idea that I'm scum?

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

That's a very coincidental read reverse

Gamma

.

I was right when I called DT out on it. If it works use it.

[Gamma Emerald]

And keep in mind there's still a chance I change my mind but it's not good rn

[Taly]

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

Another reason why

Urist

-IC makes very little sense for me to do or allow as scum.

So we're just going to ignore all my points on

Gamma

being scum and write it off through the idea that I'm scum?

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

more apples

ok y Gam scam

5081 - 5091

That's a very coincidental read reverse

Gamma

.

0.0[/quote]

Gamma

lock townread me 4333 and gave no indication of that changing.

But automatically - when I case against him and YOU - the IC - read me as scum, his tune changes in5254 - to saying I'm now showcasing a scumtell?

That was a bit abrupt. If he genuinely townread me so strongly, I didn't think his read would evaporate the second I case him as scum.

[Taly]

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

This is NAI/scam bamboozle

So what IS AI about me that indicates me as scum?

You're looking at parts of my posts and writing them of as NAI, but you haven't shown that you've entertained my perspective yet...

So we're just going to ignore all my points on

Gamma

being scum and write it off through the idea that I'm scum?

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

That's a very coincidental read reverse

Gamma

.

I was right when I called DT out on it. If it works use it.

Call

DT

out on what exactly? A read reversal?

He was one of the few people that kept stating I was town and that he'd sheep me. Of course he wanted to sheep me because if I were wrong, he can deflect the heat on me.

Your read on me was to push me away from scumcasing you.

And keep in mind there's still a chance I change my mind but it's not good rn

Who are you scumreading again

Gamma

? And where's that defense you said you'd make?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

Another reason why

Urist

-IC makes very little sense for me to do or allow as scum.

So we're just going to ignore all my points on

Gamma

being scum and write it off through the idea that I'm scum?

Even though I've wanted people to examine me more thoroughly throughout this entire game?

more apples

ok y Gam scam

5081 - 5091

That's a very coincidental read reverse

Gamma

.

0.0

Gamma

lock townread me 4333 and gave no indication of that changing.

But automatically - when I case against him and YOU - the IC - read me as scum, his tune changes in5254 - to saying I'm now showcasing a scumtell?

That was a bit abrupt. If he genuinely townread me so strongly, I didn't think his read would evaporate the second I case him as scum.[/quote]
I

didn't

change my read when you cased me. I changed it when you reacted like that to Pvt scumreading you.

[Gamma Emerald]

I was right when I called out DT on trying to discredit Krazy.
And rn I think scum is one of Moment/TB and you. As for that defense the plan was for that to come with my explanation of why I thought DT's ISO indicated TB or Momebt were scum, but I started working on the other part first.

[Taly]

I didn't change my read when you cased me. I changed it when you reacted like that to Pvt scumreading you.

How did I react to

Pvt

scumreading me? I voiced that he didn't explain his read much and I'm giving him my view on you in terms of a read.

And even if I did react poorly to

Pvt

scumreading me - was that really enough to dismiss locktowning all the way down to scumreading me?

If you're placing so much emphasis on an IC's reads then you're relying on them instead of using them to sort the game.

I think you're being another voice in

Urist's

head on at least one read he's been wrong about.

You're not even taking my questions and assessments and basing them on what I say. You're going off the

"manipulative angle"

that's been injected into it, namely because

Urist

said it.

I was right when I called out DT on trying to discredit Krazy.
And rn I think scum is one of Moment/TB and you. As for that defense the plan was for that to come with my explanation of why I thought DT's ISO indicated TB or Momebt were scum, but I started working on the other part first.

Who did you think was scum between

TB+Moment

? Because you kept voting

TheBrie

but you also rationalized a reason to scumread

Moment

too - at least because he ignored a question to you.

And OK? You called out

DT

for discrediting

Krazy

? What am I to deduce from this?

[PvtUrist]

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

Another reason why

Urist

-IC makes very little sense for me to do or allow as scum.

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

I know

[Taly]

Tbh, I can go like this all night, this interaction's only reinforced my reads...

*sigh*

I need to go to bed. It's almost 10, and I have a tutoring session at a 8 AM.

So goodnight everyone

<3

I'll get to the replies - probably later tomorrow since I'll be doing college stuff the entire morning.

p-edit

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

Another reason why

Urist

-IC makes very little sense for me to do or allow as scum.

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

I know

Because I'm pretty sure my role PM says town and I think

Gamma

is scum and

Dann

is town, too?

Our reads aren't really cohesive at all, and nothing about my word usage is disingenuous.

Night

[Gamma Emerald]

I didn't change my read when you cased me. I changed it when you reacted like that to Pvt scumreading you.

How did I react to

Pvt

scumreading me? I voiced that he didn't explain his read much and I'm giving him my view on you in terms of a read.

And even if I did react poorly to

Pvt

scumreading me - was that really enough to dismiss locktowning all the way down to scumreading me?

If you're placing so much emphasis on an IC's reads then you're relying on them instead of using them to sort the game.

I think you're being another voice in

Urist's

head on at least one read he's been wrong about.

You're not even taking my questions and assessments and basing them on what I say. You're going off the

"manipulative angle"

that's been injected into it, namely because

Urist

said it.

I was right when I called out DT on trying to discredit Krazy.
And rn I think scum is one of Moment/TB and you. As for that defense the plan was for that to come with my explanation of why I thought DT's ISO indicated TB or Momebt were scum, but I started working on the other part first.

Who did you think was scum between

TB+Moment

? Because you kept voting

TheBrie

but you also rationalized a reason to scumread

Moment

too - at least because he ignored a question to you.

And OK? You called out

DT

for discrediting

Krazy

? What am I to deduce from this?

You asked about his read on you in the post? And I didn't just jump on it when Pvt posted that, I had already had doubts, as expressed by my "hrm...". And I felt the point was strong enough because I'd been right earlier and it was something me and Pvt both saw.
As for TB/Moment I feel like Moment is more likely scum rn.
As for me calling out DT, I called him out for the same thing I called you out on.

[Gamma Emerald]

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

Another reason why

Urist

-IC makes very little sense for me to do or allow as scum.

Also I missed this before, this is using current events to try to retroactively prove something in the past as something she wouldn't do. How could Taly know what reads Pvt would come to? Pvt clearly expressed being lost earlier. I'm aware there was mention of Pvt just not trusting unproven locktown but that's not brought up here.

[PvtUrist]

TheBrie+Moment

I don't know the 3rd scum, but I'm becoming less confident in lynching

PB

off the bat or partially-apathy lynching

Moment+TheBrie

, because that almost feels like the point of lynching them right now tbh...

Gamma

-scum having

Urist

-IC is a good call for scum on a few reasons:

1)

Urists'

reads could be wrong on some currently living pairs, and him being IC vindicates his pushes.

2)

Gamma

was suspected late Pre-Dance, and IC'ing his partner would thwart off suspicion on him for awhile.

I haven't brought up my full case on

Gamma

- as I'm still not 100% sold on them being scum - but I feel like in retrospect, they're more likely scum to me versus

PB

or

Moment/TheBrie

right now.

My fear is that - by lynching

Gamma

- we lose IC. I don't know if acting on this scumread with 5 pairs left still is wise?

I'm going to study. I'll be on in a few hours - and expand on my

Gamma

case if nothing has swayed me. I want people to ISO

Gamma

and come up with their thoughts.

Gamma

didn't vote

DT

because she thought he was scum.

Gamma

voted

DT

because she could push the narrative that incriminated

TheBrie

, via

DT

being a potential partner.

Gamma

scarcely voiced a read on

DT

before this point and her vote was right after mine, so it was a predictable time to buss.

It looked like a compromise-vote that validated her reads - since

DT

scumread

TheBrie

as well - which,

"surprise, surprise"

- is very similar to the reasoning that

Gamma

gave about

TheBrie

being scum of which had been all of 2 lines. 4417

Gamma's

post - 4755

DT's

post.

Moment

has ignored people's questions and

TheBrie's

acceptance of his invitation being

"shady"

was never really touched up on.

It just feels like an excuse to eliminate an easily lynchbaity pair.

I'm not saying

TheBrie+Moment

are locktown or even town/town, but I see almost 0 town-motivation behind

Gamma's

posts upon a

DT

scumflip, and I can link multiple posts right now of

Gamma

noting

Pink Ball+DW

as making 'noteworthy' posts

(4996 - 4999 and 5000 - and 5037)

, but sticks to

TheBrie+Moment

regardless of the large amounts of suspicion casted on

Pink Ball+DW

since AT LEAST

DT's

flip.

It just reads as

Gamma

lining up lynches off 0 basis of reading into the game or having a deep intent to solve it, and

Urist

is an ideal player to IC because he hasn't contradicted the wishes of scum.

Although, I don't like the way Gamma voted DT conditionally as a way to set up TheBrie/Moment as her next lynch if DT flipped red.

You know what I'm gonna change course here. I've been thinking lynching the scummiest pair imo was the best move but here's the thing: DT has been playing like I'd expect a partner of one of those 2 to play. So instead I'll vote DT with the statement that upon a scumflip Public Enemies #1 & 2 imo will be TB and Moment.
VOTE: DoubtingThomas

Like, I don't know if it even makes sense to say this. If DT flipped town, would Gamma suddenly not be pushing this pair anymore?

Looks like they've set us up earlier than I expected.

So the arguments I'm seeing are;

-Urist has shit and incorrect reads (this is repeated atleast 3 times by Taly)
-Gamma is scam because bus?

[PvtUrist]

Also if anyone has scumreads on Moment other than inactivity, do tell.

[Krazy]

Could I check in on everyone's reads of TheBrie and why they have those reads?

There's other stuff I should say here, I probably should be giving some big shout of support to keep Taly's wim up, but frankly this is the first time anyone has even entertained a scumread on Taly and frankly I think we need to have the conversation at some point. I don't think she's scum right now though.

My wim is still kinda nuked from PB so I'm not going to say anything else intelligible tonight, I just wanted to hear what people think of TheBrie slot.

[Dannflor]

@PvtUrist,

I

strongly

feel that Gamma is using this situation to his advantage to pocket you. I understand you won't readily believe this because you feel the current game state is "too easy." I understand that fear, I had it a lot earlier in the game.

It means I can't just be lazy because scum are actually putting up a fight now. I've been looking over the game and rereading things. I am

very confident

the solve is

Gamma/Brie

. I'm going to do my best to show you why. I hope you will read what I have to say and balance it with your feelings about the game state to see how likely it is.

I also have very very strong reasons to town read Taly, Krazy, and Nancy.

Let me start with Gamma and Brie, and why I think this solve is correct.

The basis of this case hinges on the fact that scum don't want to pair up with each other. I don't think it's hard to accept that scum avoided that at all costs this game. It's too risky. If just one member of the pair comes under fire, the scum team could lose two members just like that. There are rare instances where it might work, but I think it always increases mafia win rate to pair with town here. So, why is this fact so important? It's important because DT, Gamma, and Brie (my solve) were among the final players to pair up.

This means that if there was more than one scum amongst the players who paired after Nancy and I, they

had

to make sure they didn't pair with each other. Think about it. If you entertain the possibility that Gamma and theBrie could be scum, DT

absolutely does not

want to pair there. He's likely going to be one of the first lynches (and he was) with how the game was looking, if he pairs with either of his team mates then he's basically throwing the game.

With all of that in mind, let's look at how discussion for dance partners played out:

Spoiler: DT/Gamma Interactions

who are paired up rn

or rather who is single and should i seduce

Let me set the scene. This is post 3153, page 127. Due to activity, DT hasn't had the chance to pair with anyone yet. The other unpaired players include: TheBrie, Gamma, Something_Smart, PvtUrist, Moment, and Allomancer. Three ladies. Four gentlemen.

DT

has to choose between S_S, Brie, and Gamma to take to the dance.

Gamma

why are you scum

Gamma comes into the thread and this is how DT engages with her, given DT had previously said he was looking for someone towny to pair up with, this makes it pretty easy to distance Gamma despite the small sample size of ladies he has to choose from.

Gamma

why are you scum

The fuck?

Reading through this exchange, try to place yourself in Gamma's shoes. Ask yourself if you would respond to DT in this way as town, specifically the way Gamma progresses her read on DT.

saying people are okay with pairing you with SS is basically saying they're okay with lynching you with dance 1 at this point, in case the subtext here isn't clear

...ouch?

I still haven't really seen much explanation of why I'm such a consensus scumread. I'm suspecting that it actually is just because I'm a replacement.

you are being too concerned about how you are being viewed by tohers

I rather think I've shown the appropriate amount of concern, given that I seem to be essentially an automatic lynch as soon as the dance starts...

Who is U2?

One of the best bands ever

don't be discouraged.

maybe uh you can show your townieness enough that i will town read you and be your partner

because at this point maybe nobody wants to pair up with you for being so scummy

In the midst of this interaction, DT opens the door to S_S to be a potential dance partner.

And you bring this up now why, DT?

And you bring this up now why, DT?

i brought it up before for sure you just ignored me i think

Also despite you having over 100 posts until now I haven't interacted with you at all. So you coming out with this feels like a massive crock of shit.

Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.

This is so... not genuine.

Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.

how the fuck am i a liar?

i never fucking lie as either alignment

like as scum i would definitely scum read you for things i would scum read as town to begin with so i dont understand what you mean by calling me a liar lol

Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.

how the fuck am i a liar?

i never fucking lie as either alignment

like as scum i would definitely scum read you for things i would scum read as town to begin with so i dont understand what you mean by calling me a liar lol

I understand people can think the same thoughts as both alignments.

But I cannot for a second believe you're being truthful about when you've been active.

On a side note, fuck I wanted to pair with Krazy. I was trying to figure out a read list so I could determine Krazy's alignment before forming the PT so I could shitpost there.

Gamma fabricates this scum read on DT out of the blue because she apparently believes DT has been lying about when he's been active. It's such an easy thing to fact check and such a ludicrous thing to scum read someone for that I can't believe this is town!Gamma, I have to believe that this is scum!Gamma fabricating an excuse to scum read DT and using emotion to make it look legit.

Townleaning Gamma and Pvt off of recent content.

what content does gamma have?

Like, I actually am calling you a flat out liar about you claiming to come on at the same time as me.

how the fuck am i a liar?

i never fucking lie as either alignment

like as scum i would definitely scum read you for things i would scum read as town to begin with so i dont understand what you mean by calling me a liar lol

I understand people can think the same thoughts as both alignments. But I cannot for a second believe you're being truthful about when you've been active.

On a side note, fuck I wanted to pair with Krazy. I was trying to figure out a read list so I could determine Krazy's alignment before forming the PT so I could shitpost there.

I mean. what don't you think am I being truthful about? I have been active but like realistically spent like 30 minutes for 3, 4 days out of how many days? i think 8? days we've been playing for? maybe i am thinking it's more than that by mistake because the week's been hectic but why are you calling me a liar for no reason? make me understnad

by some miracle you post whenever i am in the thread which is a rare occasion

Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.

by some miracle you post whenever i am in the thread which is a rare occasion

Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.

dude i am nto fucking lying. maybe you can iso me and see how many times i saw your post/commented about you which is a lot in terms of how many different times i entered the thread (only 3, 4 days tbh)

Here is the lie. You say I post when you're in the thread, which SHOULD make the inverse true (you post when I'm in the thread). Despite this I remember 0 of your posting. So that does not compute.

Not necessarily. Some people are really forgettable.

I agree but claiming something like that makes sirens blare for me.

Called out on the stupidness of it. "Sirens still blaring."

Gamma who should be your beau?

Well I'm not pairing with DT lol.

Dr. Worm would have been a good second imo but that's also taken. Out of the rest I need to look over Moment, Allo maybe, and Urist I guess I'd be okay with.

And with that, DT and Gamma have quickly and forcibly decreased the chances they'll ever pair with each other. Also, consider this: Gamma apparently had such a visceral reaction to DT here, scum reading him enough based off it that she would remove him from the pool of gentleman she'd pair with, but never once pushed DT any further on this or tried to convince others that DT was scum. This whole interaction specifically is why I thought Gamma pushing Brie first instead of DT at the beginning of the dance didn't make sense. I highly doubt Gamma would just forget about this with how emotional it apparently made her.

Spoiler: TheBrie

DoubtingThomas and Pvturist haven't asked me though, and Moment and Allo have. Still stuck between them. So if people want to be helpful, they can tell me why I should go with one of the other, or why I should hold out for another invitation.

Good night.

Important to note that Brie specifically says DT hasn't asked her yet in this post.

i kinda skimmed

poeple scum read me, why? maybe i can clarify. all ive seen really is 'i cant process where his reads are coming from' which is funny because as scum i am way more thorough and logical with my reads :/

i think i am at the point where i'd rather just out in pre dance if i dont get brie maybe

we'll see how SS and gamma posts

I already outlined this before as being scummy when I cased DT. This post comes only 15 posts after Brie's where she said DT hadn't asked her yet. DT makes this scummy-as-fuck "oh maybe I'll just go out pre-dance" claim, lamenting it as a consequence of him not being able to get Brie. He never fucking asked Brie. Why? Because he was never really trying to get her.

i want thebrie as my partner but it is likely moment becomes partners with thebrie i think

so i am thinking who out of SS and gamma is more townie?

honestly wouldnt mind uh not having a pair but like that'd be gamethrow or somethingsomething

i am thinking SS at the moment

Again he mentions how he wants Brie. He still hasn't asked her to dance with him. He's just accepting that Moment and Brie will become partners without truly fighting for it at all. At this point in the game, Brie was town read by most people. Why doesn't DT try harder to go after a potentially strong!town in Brie as opposed to SS who most people had stated around this point in the game might be a good first lynch? It doesn't make sense not to push harder for Brie, unless Brie is his partner, meaning taking a very low town for his partner becomes the optimal decision.

The second half of this post also read not genuine when you consider the exchange DT and Gamma already had previously.

something abotu her posts man

for me, it's that i didnt like your self-consciousness about how you are being viewed by others and gamma just having wolfy pop ins all the time

and then thinking it is unlikely all 3 left over ladies are wolves and brie looking to seemingly have consistent urge to try to solve people

I don't see where people are coming from on Brie being scum and if I'm being considered to be so towny then I should think that my own opinion should hold some weight.

Assume Brie is scum. Why wait to accept my offer and still be questioning Allo? It's clear that she knows that pairing with him is more likely to get her lynched whereas people townread me.

if she speed accepts her offer when people are calling her scum, what then?

The tides change, RC and a few other people start questioning Brie town. Keep this in mind.

this is so fucking frustrating because i'm not even 100% on brie being scum. i just think she's... not locktown. i don't want her treated as locktown. there's enough agreed locktowns that we can work around her

so right now I either play against my wincondition or be forced to make an incredibly divisive play that will only see justification part of the time

Brie, I'd appreciate if you didn't accept my offer for the time being, until this is cleared up.

I'm not even sure how I feel about TheBrie

I just think that whoever you get paired with, Moment, is going to end up being the conftown pair not nightkilled before endgame and I want to be super choosy about it

Here are my terms: accept them or don't, but I should hope that you at least consider them.

I ask SS, and you don't let your small doubt on Brie turn into a deathtunnel simply because you don't 100% townread her.

Something Smart, would you like to dance?

Time to go to bed.

i think i'm back to thinking brie is town

ugh now i think that SS could be scum

why is mafia like this

RC waffles.

i even acutely know ahead of time that this waffling is going to get wolfread but i can't do anything about it cuz like

fuuck

ss questioned basically every inclusion in the locktown pool (taly, nd, etc) then tried to get him(her?)self hitched with moment

I'll be nice and not wolf read you for that. In recent experience I've seen some of the worst misreads, and it's left be deeply paranoid of my own gut, and kinda appreciative of people who aren't dogmatically certain of everything. That said, I'm still going to be paranoid that you are actually a wolf. You and everyone. But seriously, I'll try to trust myself and people. it'll be better when we have something concrete to go off.

One thing that could be said on SS's behalf is that she hasn't accepted Moment yet, even though she had the opportunity.
Now I'm pretty sure I currently can't accept Moment.

Oh, and Moment, if you read this, did you ever answer my question about Allomancer?

As far as I'm aware you're still able to accept him if you choose to.

Well if I can...

Moment, I would be honoured to dance with you.


@Mod, is a gentleman ask one lady, then a second lady, can the first lady still accept? The offer wasn't withdrawn in this situation.

Moment's offer to SS occurred on Feb 12th, 10:39pm PST. Brie accepted it February 13th, 12:46am PST.

Two hours

after Moment extended his invitation to SS and specifically asked Brie to wait to accept his invitation, Brie accepted it anyway. Now, I know Brie has said it's because she wasn't sure she could get back on before the deadline. I hate to pick on activity issues, but I find this hard to believe. The deadline was about 30 hours away from when she accepted Moment's invitation. The fact of the matter was, Brie already had a standing invitation from Allo, so it wasn't as if she had to spend time a bunch of time to make sure she got a pairing. All she'd have to do is make sure to log on and say "I accept X invitation" in bold before the deadline. The fact that she blatantly disrespects Moment's wishes and accepts his invitation so readily only two hours after he issued an invitation to SS is just too much for me to ignore.

Because, if my solve is correct, her hasty actions make a lot more sense. If Moment and SS had paired, it would be disastrous for this hypothetical scum team. That would force DT to pair with either Gamma or Brie, and the other lady to pair with Allo or PvT, both easy mislynches. The hastiness of Brie's actions here make a lot more sense if this is the case.

The strangeness of all these interactions makes a lot more sense if DT/Gamma/Brie is S/S/S. The last few days of the pre-dance read like an awkward dance between the three to

not

be paired up with each other. I want other players to go back and read those pages themselves and see if they see the same things I do. I realize it's possible I'm conf biasing to the extreme here, but I do think there are some things I've outlined above that are just so unnatural for town players to say or do as well as for them to be S/T interactions.

I understand feeling like the game state is "too easy." But I think it's because town really has played well and Taly/Krazy/Nancy are all town.

Assume that this is true, that we really do have the dream town bloc. What is the scum team game plan? ICing and pocketing you seems obvious, throws suspicion on me, sets up Gamma to get into late game. Note DT's mention of how Gamma is "obv scum" but can be allowed to live because of you. I think scum came into this dance thinking they were pretty much fucked, and decided to make things as messy as possible by hard bussing.

I urge you to take a critical look at Gamma. She has gone from Taly as "lock town" to scum reading him with you because it's convenient, because this is what she needs to win the game. Like... LOOK at #5254.

All that being said. Pvt

, if you truly think I'm wrong (or scum as it may be), you NEED to try your best to convince people. If you really think Taly is scum, what you've done so far isn't going to cut it. You're the IC, people HAVE to listen to you. I don't understand why you say you can't case or just won't do it, because if you're confident than we really need to understand why and you need to be fucking persuasive.

I'm pretty set in the read that there are 0 scum in Taly/Krazy/Nancy at this point. If there are really two scum in the town bloc as you suggest, I don't know how we win this game. It's going to be hard to get the two town players within the town bloc to realize that if it's the case.

If it is the case, and you strongly believe that, you HAVE to be vocal and transparent as to why so we can discuss it. I don't want to shut you down or discredit you. Even if you fucking think I'm the most likely scum, explain why. Even if it purely has to do with the game state, keep explaining why, don't stop repeating yourself until everyone can engage with you and you can get feedback and people have an actually true chance to consider your thoughts. The discussion needs to happen so if you're this sure of your reads on Gamma and Brie, you gotta try harder than this for town. Please.

I will try to do a part 2 tomorrow for my town cases on Nancy/Taly/Krazy if I have time.

I rest my fucking case.

[Taly]

I didn't change my read when you cased me. I changed it when you reacted like that to Pvt scumreading you.

How did I react to

Pvt

scumreading me? I voiced that he didn't explain his read much and I'm giving him my view on you in terms of a read.

And even if I did react poorly to

Pvt

scumreading me - was that really enough to dismiss locktowning all the way down to scumreading me?

If you're placing so much emphasis on an IC's reads then you're relying on them instead of using them to sort the game.

I think you're being another voice in

Urist's

head on at least one read he's been wrong about.

You're not even taking my questions and assessments and basing them on what I say. You're going off the

"manipulative angle"

that's been injected into it, namely because

Urist

said it.

I was right when I called out DT on trying to discredit Krazy.
And rn I think scum is one of Moment/TB and you. As for that defense the plan was for that to come with my explanation of why I thought DT's ISO indicated TB or Momebt were scum, but I started working on the other part first.

Who did you think was scum between

TB+Moment

? Because you kept voting

TheBrie

but you also rationalized a reason to scumread

Moment

too - at least because he ignored a question to you.

And OK? You called out

DT

for discrediting

Krazy

? What am I to deduce from this?

You asked about his read on you in the post? And I didn't just jump on it when Pvt posted that,

I had already had doubts

, as expressed by my "hrm...". And I felt the point was strong enough because I'd been right earlier and it was something me and Pvt both saw.
As for TB/Moment I feel like Moment is more likely scum rn.
As for me calling out DT, I called him out for the same thing I called you out on.

"Something me and Pvt both saw"

- you mean something he brought up and you immediately parroted that? 4259 - 5254?

So, you doubted your locktown on me BEFORE I had even replied to

Urist's

read on me? That's what I'm getting from the bolded?

And what did you call me out on? This is still unclear.

I think

Urist's

posts matter but I know he's misled on at least one of his reads.

Another reason why

Urist

-IC makes very little sense for me to do or allow as scum.

Also I missed this before, this is using current events to try to retroactively prove something in the past as something she wouldn't do. How could Taly know what reads Pvt would come to? Pvt clearly expressed being lost earlier. I'm aware there was mention of Pvt just not trusting unproven locktown but that's not brought up here.

What does this argument accomplish? If I

knew Urist's

reads as if I were

told

, then that's an argument that

Urist+I

were scum together who told me his uncertainty.

I SCUMCASED

URIST

. Again, why would I IC someone I've pushed against because that invalidates a push I made?

Urist

was pretty vague with most of his reads Pre-Dance. I figured since that you're scum who IC'ed someone, you'd try to influence their reads in the direction you'd want them to go in.

I didn't fully know

Urist's

reads until he mentioned them the last 2 pages, which I strongly disagree with for VALID reasons if you guys READ MY POSTS this game.

TheBrie+Moment

I don't know the 3rd scum, but I'm becoming less confident in lynching

PB

off the bat or partially-apathy lynching

Moment+TheBrie

, because that almost feels like the point of lynching them right now tbh...

Gamma

-scum having

Urist

-IC is a good call for scum on a few reasons:

1)

Urists'

reads could be wrong on some currently living pairs, and him being IC vindicates his pushes.

2)

Gamma

was suspected late Pre-Dance, and IC'ing his partner would thwart off suspicion on him for awhile.

I haven't brought up my full case on

Gamma

- as I'm still not 100% sold on them being scum - but I feel like in retrospect, they're more likely scum to me versus

PB

or

Moment/TheBrie

right now.

My fear is that - by lynching

Gamma

- we lose IC. I don't know if acting on this scumread with 5 pairs left still is wise?

I'm going to study. I'll be on in a few hours - and expand on my

Gamma

case if nothing has swayed me. I want people to ISO

Gamma

and come up with their thoughts.

Gamma

didn't vote

DT

because she thought he was scum.

Gamma

voted

DT

because she could push the narrative that incriminated

TheBrie

, via

DT

being a potential partner.

Gamma

scarcely voiced a read on

DT

before this point and her vote was right after mine, so it was a predictable time to buss.

It looked like a compromise-vote that validated her reads - since

DT

scumread

TheBrie

as well - which,

"surprise, surprise"

- is very similar to the reasoning that

Gamma

gave about

TheBrie

being scum of which had been all of 2 lines. 4417

Gamma's

post - 4755

DT's

post.

Moment

has ignored people's questions and

TheBrie's

acceptance of his invitation being

"shady"

was never really touched up on.

It just feels like an excuse to eliminate an easily lynchbaity pair.

I'm not saying

TheBrie+Moment

are locktown or even town/town, but I see almost 0 town-motivation behind

Gamma's

posts upon a

DT

scumflip, and I can link multiple posts right now of

Gamma

noting

Pink Ball+DW

as making 'noteworthy' posts

(4996 - 4999 and 5000 - and 5037)

, but sticks to

TheBrie+Moment

regardless of the large amounts of suspicion casted on

Pink Ball+DW

since AT LEAST

DT's

flip.

It just reads as

Gamma

lining up lynches off 0 basis of reading into the game or having a deep intent to solve it, and

Urist

is an ideal player to IC because he hasn't contradicted the wishes of scum.

Although, I don't like the way Gamma voted DT conditionally as a way to set up TheBrie/Moment as her next lynch if DT flipped red.

You know what I'm gonna change course here. I've been thinking lynching the scummiest pair imo was the best move but here's the thing: DT has been playing like I'd expect a partner of one of those 2 to play. So instead I'll vote DT with the statement that upon a scumflip Public Enemies #1 & 2 imo will be TB and Moment.
VOTE: DoubtingThomas

Like, I don't know if it even makes sense to say this. If DT flipped town, would Gamma suddenly not be pushing this pair anymore?

Looks like they've set us up earlier than I expected.

So the arguments I'm seeing are;

-Urist has shit and incorrect reads (this is repeated atleast 3 times by Taly)
-Gamma is scam because bus?

You're focusing on everything but my explanations and responses to your thoughts.

1)

It's hard to have much opinion on your reads when you DON'T EXPLAIN THEM.

2)

Gamma

isn't just scum because of potential bussing - it's the general association to

DT

as a whole - and it's his entire attitude towards me and you in the last page or so.

Do I need to outline everything point by point to help you understand?

[Taly]

We have 3 days, if people are so confident on who they believe is scum then I don't get the point in withdrawing votes.