Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]

[Ankamius]

What are scum doing this game skitter

I'm curious what you think about it

[Chara]

Do you think that reads shift was manufactured the way it was on purpose?

i did at the time. i never really stopped considering it either. i've had major bad feelings about u2 since the game started, but for a few reasons decided my gut was probably wrong. i think in a large part that was because i was townreading skitter, and she pushed against my suspicions.
i don't know if it means anything or not but it's relevant to reading skitter now, i think.

pedit: when would it have happened if it had been a bus?

[skitter30]

i kinda feel like they're taking advantage of the super-fast gamestate and the many loud personalities head-butting to slide under the radar
there's a lot of slots that are just kinda there and not really doing anything and i feel like scum is probably in that group; that's why i want to make a specific effort to sort them today

[Ankamius]

it's relevant to reading skitter now, i think.

Yup

I'm thinking that she's the townread I'm most likely to be wrong on, but I don't think I have enough to conclude it either way

I want to sort out what's weird about the gamestate first

[Ankamius]

i kinda feel like they're taking advantage of the super-fast gamestate and the many loud personalities head-butting to slide under the radar
there's a lot of slots that are just kinda there and not really doing anything and i feel like scum is probably in that group; that's why i want to make a specific effort to sort them today

What specifically changed from your feeling that scum weren't all in the lurkers?

[skitter30]

Do you think that reads shift was manufactured the way it was on purpose?

i did at the time. i never really stopped considering it either. i've had major bad feelings about u2 since the game started, but for a few reasons decided my gut was probably wrong. i think in a large part that was because i was townreading skitter, and she pushed against my suspicions.
i don't know if it means anything or not but it's relevant to reading skitter now, i think.

pedit: when would it have happened if it had been a bus?

iirc the turn-around happened after the momentum for the wagon died down and nmsa was not imminently getting lynched
there had been a time earlier where nmsa was really really close to getting lynched and if urap2 wanted to distance but not bus (ie he didn't want his push to end up in an actual lynch) i feel like the turnaround would have happened there

the wagon had already lost most of it's momentum when he changed his read
if he was scum bussing i feel like he would have committed to the read and seen through a lynch, or tried to stave off the momentum when it was imminently looking like he'd be lynched; changing his mind at that juncture, when the momentum had cooled down already on it's own, is a weird point for scum to shift a read like that given the gamestate

[Chara]

i'm rereading the whole nmsa wagon buildup right now, skitter, so i'll get back to you with that.

[skitter30]

i kinda feel like they're taking advantage of the super-fast gamestate and the many loud personalities head-butting to slide under the radar
there's a lot of slots that are just kinda there and not really doing anything and i feel like scum is probably in that group; that's why i want to make a specific effort to sort them today

What specifically changed from your feeling that scum weren't all in the lurkers?

the fact that i'm still townreading most of the active posters and scum has to be somewhere

(also the group of active posters has changed, i should probably mention that.
like i was townreading enter but i don't really classify succint as being an active poster, and that slot is now in that nebulous category where i need more from them)

[skitter30]

i gotta bounce, and *probably* won't be able to post until like sunday morning
apologies in advance

[Chara]

that's okay, i'm going to be swamped with work for the next three days. will do what i can, though.

[Flubbernugget]

Urap2 being obvtown and chara sitting around null-scum make no sense in the same game

if this is directed at me i don't know why those don't make sense together
(and chara has gone up quite a bit in myreads, but that only happened recently)

They don't make sense together because both slots had the same habit of making a lot of interaction posts that look townie in a bubble but not from them were not able to generate good reads.

[xRECKONERx]

cant say i particularly regret lynching brig since she refused to do anything other than troll me but uh

im p sure scum play there is to take advantage of the me v brig 1v1 and drive a mislynch.

@mod can we get an actual end of day votecount at some point

by my count the wagon was ank/tris/me/xtoxm/chara/succinct/brig

ank/tris were on the brig wagon before me so they weren't pile-ons, which means id like to look further at xtoxm/chara/succint's jumps onto the wagon. i need to do some rereading but my god this game is 100 pages and we just hit day 2

i guess it's not impossible for ank/tris to be scum there but i really feel like it's more likely to have followed

particularly, i need to reread urap2 and enter and see how i feel about that. my read on the urap2/xtoxm slot was town mostly because of the way urap2 weirdly backed off of NMSA so quickly when realizing he was wrong. need to see if that could be manufactured.

[Ankamius]

Chara and I were what swung the wagon if anything

[NotMySpamAccount]

This makes chara and succinct the main points of interest on the brigette wagon

Why? Because they were on the end of that wagon?

I wish Brigitte had hardclaimed BEFORE she self-hammered because reasonable chance whomever hammered after that, would be scum.

I wasn’t online for most of yesterday, I thought we would have one more day. I’m still not tr Skitter but Brigitte flip makes me feel worse now about NMSA. Considering his hard scumread on me and Brigitte and knowing it was Brigitte on the chopping block and not me, why did he only consider voting her at L-1?

I can’t help wondering if I had been the leading wagon instead of Brigitte, would his vote also have been on Brigitte then?

Nah, it would've been on you cause I thought (and still think) you're scum.

[NotMySpamAccount]

the turn around on nmsa was incredibly townie and i don't think it comes from scum

his very very early game and how he pushed nmsa was also pretty townie and nuanced and i don't think scum!him pushes a mislynch that way (or lolbusses a partner that way) or says things like 'if he flips town i know i'm the lynch tomorrow' (which he said repeatedly) - if scum!him is aware enough of the gamestate that he knows that a mislynch would result in his own lynch i odn't think he's confident enough to push it as aggressively as he did, and the whole push started too early and was too hard to be a bus (and the turn-around on nmsa didn't happen at the time i feel like it would have if it had been a bus)

mindmelding at various points of the game (esp. wrt the ank/brigitte thing)

there was probably more but if there is it happened long enough ago that i'm blanking

I wouldn't say it was incredibly townie, just a bit townie. It feels like you're trying to take advantage of game length and the replace-out to defend yourself by tring a general(?) townread.

[Flubbernugget]

VOTE: succinct for now. I need to reread chara wrt the brig wagon

[Nimueh]

Yeah basically

Are you saying nmsa's scum read was fake?

I don’t know, I just thought it was strange he didn’t flip to Brigitte, given how hard he was pushing a connection between us.

[Nimueh]

Yeah Nim I dont understand what point you mean to make, can you explain? With Brig flipping town, it's not as if a scum-nmsa were avoiding bussing his buddy or something. Scum-nmsa doesn't have a reason not to vote brig.

I'm mainly confused with your last paragraph though, like...why would nmsa stop his vote-parking on you if you became the lead wagon?

I was speculating that if he knew we were both flipping town.

[Nimueh]

maybe the nks turn back on when we lynch scum, idk

i have to at some point go back and look at the circumstances of the votes on the brigitte wagon but off the cuff if there's scum on there i'd guess it to be between: {reck/tris/succint}

kinda want to do this for now until i sort out how i feel about the brigitte/tris wagons

VOTE: flubber
i have like no read on him and can't really remember much of anything he's said this game

Skitters post to start the day feels a bit out of place too for some reason

Mmmmmmm I kind of thought that too, mostly re: "wowie where's the NK?", but I dont know that scum says this because I'd assume they'd be particularly aware that theres no NK coming up if night phases arent happening yet.

And I dont like that she votes flubber after positing scum in reck/tris/succinct

Do you see something else here or have I covered your thoughts more or less?

Agree that her Flubber vote makes 0 sense based on that post.

[Nimueh]

the entire post just feels... weird

it's setup spec

followed by saying that there may be scum in half the lynch wagon

then instead of sorting them, uses her vote to try to sort somebody else...?

like those are thoughts that make sense but the way they're ordered and written feels a lot more like she didn't have a whole lot to say but felt compelled to put more down on the page

it doesn't fit the context of what her thought processes have looked like to me

I still don’t buy her reasons for sr me. Her reasons, both based on my Reck L-1 thing and later Elbirn vote, seemed over reachy to me. I also really dislike all of her Ankamius’ NK comments. It makes me think she is thinking about you being NK’d alot. She very likely would have hard pushed a wagon on me, if it weren’t for you. I think she dialed that back down because it would look suspicious after your obvtown read on me.

[Nimueh]

I think I'm townreading somebody I shouldn't

Most likely.

Skitter?

[Nimueh]

Why was Succint voting Ank?

It was Enter’s vote iirc.

He wasn’t very happy with the Brigitte wagon. I don’t really know why he voted Ankamius. I think it had something to do with that though.

[Creature]

I think I'm townreading somebody I shouldn't

Most likely.

Skitter?

Possibily. Based on 1082.

[Creature]

I think I'm townreading somebody I shouldn't

Most likely.

Skitter?

Possibily. Based on 1082.

*1802

[Nimueh]

Mmmmmmm I kind of thought that too, mostly re: "wowie where's the NK?", but I dont know that scum says this because I'd assume they'd be particularly aware that theres no NK coming up if night phases arent happening yet.

And I dont like that she votes flubber after positing scum in reck/tris/succinct

Do you see something else here or have I covered your thoughts more or less?

I try not to be hyper-critical of posts that vote for me but I'm glad I'm not the only one that

I think it’s kind of hypocritical of her to jump on me for my reads/votes and do something like that. I don’t really sense a lot of conviction on any of her reads and is throwing her vote anywhere.

I initially thought her whole survivalist thing with Brigitte may have been townie post-flip but I think it could have also been scum wk for towncred post-flip, I suppose.