Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Auro]

Actually wait.

Volxen has been expressing a desire to roll scum with me recently; there is a chance he's trying to step up his scumgame and is coasting on my townreading him from wallposts. He's more than capable of walling as scum as evidenced by the Lynchpin game. However, I still maintain he's probtown just from his D2 activity alone.

Some questions I'd like answered by Volxen:
1. Why are you locked in that your nomination implies familiarity with meta? Shoshin agrees that you're a strong nom contender nonetheless as town by virtue of being scummy and by being defended upon the basis of being obvtown later - how does this alone gives you enough confidence to vote Irrelephant without considering the world where Shoshin is scum?
2. Can you back up the assertion that Shoshin was "hard townread"? With RC calling Shoshin scum before replacing out, and multiple other slots pushing Shoshin, how is this true?

And to Shoshin:
1. If you were suspect that Irre was scum, why was your first post D2 asking Volxen if he'd like to take the lynch?
2. Can you point to anything that makes you objectively town? (There's a reason I'm asking this, even if it's a dumb question)

[Auro]

Also @Shoshin: I'm not seeing how you arrive at the conclusion that I'm town from that post of mine; could you elaborate?

[volxen]

@Auro You are correct, Shoshin did some take heat and was not a universal consensus townread on day one. I still maintain that overall, the foursome of {Irrelphant, Auro, RadiantCowbells, Shoshin} were the four most overall townread players on day one, with you and Irrelephant being the most universal consensus townreads. So something like this:

{Auro, Irrelephant}
{RadiantCowbells, Shoshin}
...
{Volxen, Demon, Fus, Clem, DT, Scumreading}

I know I'm town. Let's entertain the notion that all of four {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo, Shoshin} are town. And let’s say, just as an example, that the scumteam is something like DoubtingThomas/Clemency/Vedith (note that I don't actually think that this is the case). Now in this kind of scenario, do you really believe that I am the priority day 2 lynch for that sort of scumteam? Because from that scumteam's point of view, going based off of day one play alone, the obvious outcome is that I would be lynched rather than Shoshin or Irrelephant. Yes, I repeatedly said that I "could become obvtown and unlynchable later in the game". So what, what does that matter to people unfamiliar with my meta? The fact that I said that on day one isn't going to mean much to a scumteam that is completely unfamiliar with my meta. What's the more likely scenario, that a scumteam like DoubtingThomas/Clemency/Vedith would prioritize lynching the person that talked about becoming obvtown and unlynchable and some undefined future point in the game, or that they would prioritize getting

one of the actually strongly townread players from day one

lynched? Especially considering in said scenario, none of the members of the scumteam are very familiar with my meta?

In this scenario it would make

MUCH

more sense to select all three nominees from the foursome of {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo, Shoshin} to guarantee that a strongly townread player from day one is lynched. And actually, since you and Irrelephant were the two most overall townread players on day one, the three nominees should have been specifically either {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo} or {Auro, Irrelephant, Shoshin}. The latter list in particular makes a lot of sense since RadiantCowbells replaced out, so maybe taking out Alonzo wouldn’t be a priority for the scumteam. Irrelephant being a nominee but you

NOT

being a nominee is quite concerning.

With a scumteam like DoubtingThomas/Clemency/Vedith, it simply makes no sense for the three nominees to be {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin}. And in general, it makes no sense with any scumteam combination of three out of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith, Fuscosco, scumreading, Volxen} being the scumteam. If I am scum and Shoshin and Irrelephant are both town, then there is a high probability that this even-numbered day phase is wasted on me getting bused, which should take place on an odd-numbered day if it's going to happen at all. If all three of {Shoshin, Irrelephant, Volxen} are town and you are also town, then there is a high probability that this even-numbered day phase is wasted on lynching a scummy town player (me) rather than a universally townread player (Irrelephant) or a mostly townread player (Shoshin), at least going by day one play. And a scumteam that is completely unfamiliar with my meta would only have my day one play to go on when deciding whether to include me as a nominee or not.

Which is why I know for a fact that all three of you, Shoshin, and Irrelephant are not all town, because any scumteam combination in that scenario would not choose me as a nominee and skip over you.

[volxen]

And @Auro it does make sense for scum!Auro to want a nominee list like {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant}, because it makes it possible for me to get taken out of the game early on without you even having to push me as a scumread. You would simply need to have all three of {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant} as townreads, and then concoct some story on how you "regrettably" have to vote for me because you are less confident on your townread of me then you are on your townreads of Shoshin and Irrelephant. And it's not like pivoting to that position by the end of day 2 would be outside of your scumrange, even though right now you are saying you would vote for Irrelephant over me.

But the nomination list of {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant} also certainly makes sense for scum!Irrelephant, especially since Irrelephant himself is a nominee and he is obviously not going to vote for himself. If he wants to take me out of the game, he can also have both Shoshin and I as townreads, and then claim to have "no choice" but to vote for me because he is more confident of his Shoshin townread than he is of his townread of me.

So it makes sense from both of your scum perspectives, because it allows either of you to push me without actually having to have me as a scumread.

[Vedith]

Auro I think I'll sheep you until I have less to read.
Who's Scum in just one word?

[Auro]

Shoshin

--
Probs all-town nom but if I had to vote *right* now I'd vote Shoshin.

[Auro]

In this scenario it would make MUCH more sense to select all three nominees from the foursome of {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo, Shoshin} to guarantee that a strongly townread player from day one is lynched. And actually, since you and Irrelephant were the two most overall townread players on day one, the three nominees should have been specifically either {Auro, Irrelephant, RadiantCowbells/Alonzo} or {Auro, Irrelephant, Shoshin}. The latter list in particular makes a lot of sense since RadiantCowbells replaced out, so maybe taking out Alonzo wouldn’t be a priority for the scumteam. Irrelephant being a nominee but you NOT being a nominee is quite concerning.

This is a point I've addressed - Having three widely townread slots as noms, while being a straightforward method of deciding nominations, is arguably sub-optimal.

First, because even though scum gets rid of one townie slot, the other two slots become townier if they pick three widely townread town slots.
Second, the dynamic changes by putting up a scummy slot and introduces WIFOM to the game, fudging up chances of the "scummier" player being the lynch of the day - which did happen today.
Third, induces paranoia on townie slots that *aren't* nominated - which is happening right now.

Such a pattern of noms is actually cleverer.

If I were scum and Shosh/Irre were town, being widely townread makes it a really good risk to take nominating myself - {Auro, RC/Irre, Shoshin} was a nomination I would go for, push Shoshin (who locktowned me BEFORE D1 ended) and reap said towncred. Shoshin's using similar logic as scum-indicative for Irre as well, interestingly.

[Auro]

Yes, I repeatedly said that I "could become obvtown and unlynchable later in the game". So what, what does that matter to people unfamiliar with my meta? The fact that I said that on day one isn't going to mean much to a scumteam that is completely unfamiliar with my meta.

Volx is a strong choice because he's been so absent from the game that he's easily mislynchable, plus

there's always a risk of Volx becoming a threat later in the game

.

Shoshin, who has no meta experience with you (I think?) said this, for starters. Do you disagree that anyone following the game (which scum are likelier to do) would pick up on "Volxen becomes obvtown later on in the game" especially with one of the most townread voices (me) asserting it?

[Vedith]

Shoshin

--
Probs all-town nom but if I had to vote *right* now I'd vote Shoshin.

Why are you not voting then?

[Auro]

You would simply need to have all three of {Volxen, Shoshin, Irrelephant} as townreads, and then concoct some story on how you "regrettably" have to vote for me because you are less confident on your townread of me then you are on your townreads of Shoshin and Irrelephant. And it's not like pivoting to that position by the end of day 2 would be outside of your scumrange, even though right now you are saying you would vote for Irrelephant over me.

There is no way I imagine I could pull off this version of your hypothetical convincingly as scum.

Firstly, I'd have to progress from my null-scum read on Shoshin, to hard townread.
Secondly, I'd have to maintain my hard townread on Irrelephant (which has eroded to an extent after further thought and Shoshin's case).
Third, I'd have to paint you as "not townie enough" in the face of your obvtown posting - which is a difficult task to do if you *are* town.

*Then* I would have to admit to not being able to recognize town!you which contradicts my earlier stance on your slot, or aggressively push and cause your mislynch which would make me look terribad.

[Auro]

Why are you not voting then?

Waiting for Irre to respond, for starters. Time's not an issue.

[Vedith]

Is your vote going to rush the day then?

[Auro]

Well if I vote there and you sheep she'd be at L-2

I don't see any utility in voting now anyway, though.

[Vedith]

But you didn't vote before knowing I'd sheep.
So your vote would be L3?

Voting someone indicates you think either Scum or the best lynch. Otherwise it's just fence sitting.

[Fuscosco]

hmmm vedith being proactive? hmmm what's happened in a year

[Vedith]

I'm helping \o/

[Fuscosco]

YoY

[Auro]

Voting someone indicates you think either Scum or the best lynch. Otherwise it's just fence sitting.

I am fence-sitting, though.
We're gated to the three nominations today, and I've stated my current positions on the slots.
I don't see how placing a vote would help?

[Auro]

Fusco: You've only said that Volx is town so far; opinions on Irre/Shoshin?

[Fuscosco]

ftmp, i think we should murk one. My gut wants to do shosin, but my notes suggest irre isa better choice. have to reconsider and review my notes. without a proper nk to consider I think we should not analyze the groups chosen by scum.

[Fuscosco]

Hmmm, come to think of it; what happened to the unholy amount of distrust volx had for me?

[Shoshin]

Shoshin, can you link to some good scumgames of Irre's, which you think has similar patterns of behaviour to this game?

I think all his scum games have similar patterns to his town games. I recommend you look at his scum PTs more than his behavior, as you'll get a sense of how he thinks about the game & that's more useful for finding him in subsequent games.

[Alonzo]

UNVOTE:

[Shoshin]

And to Shoshin:
1. If you were suspect that Irre was scum, why was your first post D2 asking Volxen if he'd like to take the lynch?
2. Can you point to anything that makes you objectively town? (There's a reason I'm asking this, even if it's a dumb question)

1. I had him as scummier than Irrel on D1 so that was my starting point coming into this.

2. Yes, but it's self-meta so even though it's objectively correct your source is subjective.

[Auro]

Shoshin, did you meta-check me?