Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Auro]

Yes, but it's self-meta so even though it's objectively correct your source is subjective.

You did the same in Starcraft Mafia 2 though. Or was it TW?

[Shoshin]

Also @Shoshin: I'm not seeing how you arrive at the conclusion that I'm town from that post of mine; could you elaborate?

When I started rereading the game, I had Clemency as a scumread. But when I read that "grain of salt" post, I couldn't help but think it was towny. Seeing you have the exact same thought made me feel like you were reacting to subtle points in ways that I don't think scum ever pick up on, especially since I'm pretty sure Clem's actually scum. I tend to locktown people over these sorts of things all the time (often subtle, based on one post, early in the game, discovered while rereading).

[Shoshin]

Shoshin, did you meta-check me?

No.

[Shoshin]

Yes, but it's self-meta so even though it's objectively correct your source is subjective.

You did the same in Starcraft Mafia 2 though. Or was it TW?

I don't remember, almost all posts were the worst.

I'm a strong believer in the validity of self-meta but I always get called scummy for it so unless you want me to self-meta I'm not going to.

[Alonzo]

VOTE: shoshin

L1

[Shoshin]

I don't think RC replaces out if he actually thought I was scum.

[Alonzo]

You worked pretty hard to send wazoo down no?

[Shoshin]

RC did the work of pushing Wazoo's lynch. I was just trying to figure out if Wazoo was bad town or scum for most of the day.

[Alonzo]

Yeah a few players packed their assets with peanut butter day 1.

So you think irrel may be scum huh?

Il read into it later, for now I'm most pinged by you

[volxen]

@Auro, I understand your argument about why scum might intentionally choose {2 towny town players, 1 one scummy town player} as the nomination list, but I don't neccessarily agree that that is likely to come from any scumteam combination. The nomination list of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} makes the most sense if one or more members of the scumteam are aware of my meta; it makes less sense if none of them are.

And to what end could this strategy of choosing {2 towny town players, 1 one scummy town player?} as the nominees on each even-numbered day be followed? What if town simply always lynches the one that was the "scummiest" on the previous odd-numbered day? Then none of strongly townread players would ever get taken out of the game, and scum risks losing to a strong townblock that could grow over time. This is why in a standard game in the majority of cases, scum will nightkill the obvtown players during the night phases rather than killing scummier town players just for the sake of WIFOM. The same concept applies here; the even-numbered day phases are night phases, and scum needs to make the most of them.

Yes, there is merit to the notion that if all three of the nominees are widely townread players, that they are likely all town because scum would be afraid to nominate themselves alongside two widely townread players. Even so, by nominating three widely townread players each even-numbered day phase, the worst-case scenario is that the third-most widely townread player is lynched rather than the second-most or most widely townread player. So if {townie A, townie B, townie C} are all nominated on day 2 and townie C is lynched, maybe that does result in townie A and townie B becoming locktown for the remainder of the game. Even so, scum could repeat this process by taking the third-most townread player at the time and put them up against townie A and townie B on each even-numbered day phase, to still guarantee that a mostly townread player is lynched on each even-numbered day phase. So perhaps this does lead to two confirmed town, but if scum just continues to put one scummy town player up against two towny town players, they run the risk of literally never taking out one of the top town players on an even-numbered day phase, and this allows the townblock to potentially keep growing. A townblock of three, four, or five players is worse for scum than a townblock of two players.

And if Shoshin and Irrelephant are both town and you are scum, I would argue that a nomination list of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} benefits you the most regardless of the outcome. Going by the numbers alone it gives you a 1/3 chance of taking me out of the game early on regardless of whether you personally vote for me or not, and even if I am not lynched it would still allow you to take out one of the strongest town players (Shoshin or Irrelephant). So no matter what the outcome is, scum!Auro benefits from the outcome of day 2 in this scenario. I would also argue that from the perspective of scum!Auro, {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} are the three strongest and most threatening town players. Shoshin and Irrelephant because of their day one play (and also because of your prior experience with Irrelephant), and me because of our extensive history together.

[volxen]

Hmmm, come to think of it; what happened to the unholy amount of distrust volx had for me?

I'm more focused on {Auro, Irrelephant, Shoshin, DoubtingThomas, Clemency} at the moment. That doesn't mean that I have abandoned my suspicions of you.

[volxen]

ftmp, i think we should murk one. My gut wants to do shosin, but my notes suggest irre isa better choice. have to reconsider and review my notes. without a proper nk to consider I think we should not analyze the groups chosen by scum.

We absolutely should analyze the nominees chosen by scum, because there is a reason they chose the three nominees that they chose. This nomination list makes sense for certain scumteam combinations, and it doesn't make sense for other scumteam combinations.

[Auro]

1. Again, scum needn't be closely aware of your meta - you pointed it out, and I defended you specifically over it. Shoshin noted it as well - so you voting Irre off that alone is fallacious.
2. No; town mislynching the "scummiest" is the expected move, and doesn't get the other nommed players towncred for being nommed. Think about it - if the nominations are equally likely to get lynched coming into the day, it's risky - whereas having one scummy slot as a nom provides a "cover". 2 Towny, 1 Scummy nomination causes paranoia about the towny nominations (which I explained) which lasts inspite of the scummier nom being lynched. This is a starkly different context to a normal game; scum using the mechanic to nominate three obvtown town players would lead to a prob loss by virtue of confirming multiple town in the night phases. Proof is served by the stances people are taking today.
3. How does it benefit me the most regardless of outcome? That's quite a meh nomination if I were scum. Shoshin literally townlocked me, and Irrelephant townreads me as well. Shoshin also isn't widely townread (which you agree with me on). You've played with scum!me: Do you think I would want to kill someone who's hard-townreading / lock-townreading me? Also your argument would apply to anyone scum, so I find this disingenuous. Also, if I were scum I'd rather have you around and see if you'd catch me I regretted killing you off early in our Newbie game.

[Auro]

What happened to your read on Scum Reading? I answered but you didn't follow up with me about that still.

[Auro]

How come Shoshin is in your "to focus on" list? I don't see any indication of a read on her in your D2 ISO.

[volxen]

@Auro I meant it would benefit you the most as in a nomination list of {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} is better for scum!you as opposed to an alternative nomination list, not that said nomination list would only benefit scum!you and no one else as scum. I've said repeatedly that it also makes sense from the perspective of scum!Irrelephant as well, I never claimed that the only explanation for this nomination list is that you have to be scum.

[volxen]

How come Shoshin is in your "to focus on" list? I don't see any indication of a read on her in your D2 ISO.

I don't have a definitive read on her yet, but since I am "competing" against her evaluating her slot will be a priority for me this day phase.

[volxen]

My right thumb's tendons got suddenly imflammed or some shit, it hurts real bad so I'll probably be less active for a while.

Irrelephant is hard-town for me.

Shoshin, I'd like for you to respond to my earlier question re: when I became locktown for you.

Volxen being a nom with these two is interesting, and I seriously doubt scum!Volx would nominate himself along with these two especially when he's being slightly scumread already.

@Volx, I typed up a response to your post but the thread got locked. However a TL;Dr:
1. Following up would be mostly NAI for you, but not doing so is likelier scum.
2.

SR reminds me of Pintu from SC2. Would you agree?

Also, I think RC's slot is town.

@Auro, You are referring to this? I take it you meant that he is like Pint in the sense that he isn't really making any pushes of his own? I guess, but his playstyle is certainly a lot different from Pint.

[volxen]

@Auro I don't think that scum!you would "test the waters" and keep town!me around just to see if I could catch you, because you wouldn't want to run the risk of me disrupting your 100% win rate as scum . But seriously, I think you make optimal plays as scum, and you would take me out as soon as you became convinced that that was the optimal play for you.

[volxen]

@Auro, Regarding your theory on the reasoning behind the nomination list being {2 towny town players, 1 scummy town player} (based on day one play at least), why do you think the nomination list wasn't {Auro, Irrelephant, Volxen} or perhaps {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen}? If you and I are both town, why doesn't scum force you and I to compete against each other, considering our day one interactions?

[Shoshin]

If scum wanted to guarantee a lynch on a particular player, they would have nominated Auro, RC, & the player to be lynched. If scum Auro wants Volx dead, he nominates himself & RC along with Volx. The fact he didn't points strongly to town Auro. It also means scum are sloppy & clueless, or they're trying to create chaos with these picks.

Volx is biting the bait by turning on Auro. We need to avoid this, Volx. Do you really think Auro plays this game as scum? It's highly unlikely he's scum trying to remove you from the game.

The nominations point to the same people who were likely scum before the nominations: DT, Clemency, Vedith, Fusco, with an off chance it's Irrelephant.

[Irrelephant11]

Minor family emergency is taking more time than I expected.

I’ve caught up reading, but don’t have time to lay out all my thoughts rn. I should be able to post more tomorrow though so I won’t replace.

Shoshin, can you elaborate on the process that got you from “Irrelephant is scum because he’s happy to be here” to “I’m never voting you this game, Irrelephant” to “Vote: Irrelephant”?
I’m not interested in standalone reasons for “here’s why Irrelephant might be ____ alignment”, I want you to point to when and why your mind changed. I don’t feel I’ve seen a consistent or follow-able progression from you, and would like to hear you explain that.

Volxen, I agree with Auro that “one of {Auro, Irrelephant} has to be scum” is based on fallacious reasoning. For example, why isn’t it possible scum thought “let’s pick two talkative town players and a quiet player, to give ourselves room to maneuver on the wagons” with no regard to your particular skills as a player? I also don’t think you were widely scumread before this game day.

Those things said, I do think it’s more than 50% likely that all three of us are town. Let’s not completely forget the rest of the playerlist this game day.

[Shoshin]

Hey Irrelephant, sorry to hear about family emergency. I hope everything is okay.

I'm not scumreading scumreading you. I townread everyone who was nominated. I'd lynch all of DT, Clem, Vedith, & Fusco before I lynched you, which means you're stronger town than at least one other townie.

If I pretend we're in 3-way LYLO with you, me, and Volx, I come out with you as scummier than Volx, for the reasons I've given. It's not a matter of changing my mind about you so much as comparing you with Volx. If you're both town, it's not really fair but that's the nature of this setup. The important thing is that we don't get sidetracked tomorrow by unnecessarily scumreading the players who were nominated.

That said, I'm open to hearing what you have to say about the game. If you think Volx is scum, please talk about it. If you think I'm wrong about townreading Auro/Alonzo, I'd also like to know that. I'd like to go into the rest of this game with as much input from you as possible.

[Shoshin]

A large part of my read on you, Irrel, comes from this thought process: "I'm in 3-way LYLO with two players that are equally town. Who do I lynch? The one that I think is better as scum. Irrelephant."

[Fuscosco]

Again, I think that analysing the nk picks ala 'possible alignment combos' is bad. Lets lynch the scummiest and/or the infolynch and/or the most dangerous. Shoshin is right.