Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[volxen]

@Shoshin and @Irrelephant, if all three of us are in fact town, I feel like the primary objective with this nomination list is to take me out of the game, and the secondary or backup objective with it is to take out Shoshin. I don't think that scum (regardless of whether Irrelephant is scum or not) actually expects Irrelephant to be nightkilled here, because day one was something like this:

{Irrelephant, Auro}
{Shoshin, RadiantCowbells}
...
{everyone else}

The point being that the three of us were all at different tiers in terms of how we were read on day one. Irrelephant was a top-tier townread on day one, Shoshin was a second-tier townread on day one, and I wasn't really townread heavily at all on day one. Which is why I think Irrelephant is not really a true target here, and scum assumed that he is going to make it to day 3.

Do you both agree with me at least insofar as that being the objective of this nomination list?

[volxen]

I think volxen’s insistence and unwillingness to back down from chaining my & Auro’s lynches here (i think we’re both town, and though I haven’t meta’d Auro recently I’ve hydra’d with him and I do feel I am a better scum player than him and wouldn’t be townreading him as strongly as I am now if he were scum; I’ll probably metadive his more recent games to be sure tho because his apparent high win rate is interesting) is not towny. But volxen’s heavy analysis feels like town!him so idk what to do there yet

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10550875
Scum!Volxen's capable of faking heavy analysis.
Guess how I caught him in this game - his resistance to re-evaluate his push on me.
Give it a read, and tell me what you think.

This is not even accurate. I never said I was 100% certain of you being scum and that I won't be re-evaluating you. And even if you disagree with me regarding my analysis of this nomination list, if you look at things objectively you should understand why this nomination list looks like it could have been chosen by someone familiar with my meta, as opposed to this competing theory that I was chosen simply because I said "I can become obvtown and unlynchable later in the game" and the fact that you "endorsed" me saying that.

[Auro]

I never said I was 100% certain of you being scum and that I won't be re-evaluating you.

It's not about you having said that, it's that you didn't re-evaluate/change your positions. I recall saying you were arguing in bad faith multiple times.

[Auro]

if you look at things objectively you should understand why this nomination list looks like it could have been chosen by someone familiar with my meta, as opposed to this competing theory that I was chosen simply because I said "I can become obvtown and unlynchable later in the game" and the fact that you "endorsed" me saying that.

That's not the only competing theory though.

[Irrelephant11]

I do feel I am a better scum player than him

I got bored of rolling scum so much, but now I want to roll scum against you sometime. It's on

@volxen outside of the two of us planning this as theater, don’t you feel like this is a pretty towny reaction from Auro?
Also @volxen how do you read Auro and I outside of the fact that you’ve been nominated? Surely you don’t think Auro is the best lynch after I flip green, given the number of actually independently scummy slots?

[Shoshin]

Best reason for lynching Volx today: to prevent Auro's mislynch later.

[volxen]

@Auro, I had posts directed to you on previous pages that I was expecting you to answer, and your first post when you come back into the thread is to piggyback off of something Irrelephant said and link to one of my scumgames just to say "Volxen is capable of faking heavy analysis as scum" without even responding to me first. I feel like you are already starting to treat me as a scumread despite previously saying that my posts were indicative of me being at least "probtown". You know for a fact that if we are both town, it should be easier for your to correctly townread me rather than the other way around, because you've told me repeatedly on Discord that I am an "easy read" for you. Whereas I have never said the same about you. And like you mentioned yourself earlier in this game, even in Follow the Leader where we were both town, I still suspected that you could be scum even with you voting for Vedith early on on day one and showing very indirect knowledge that you knew who the town leader was. You know it's normal for me to be skeptical of you.

The meta theory with respect to the nomination list makes sense, even if it is ultimately wrong. The nomination list objectively does make sense from the perspective of scum!Irrelephant or scum!Auro, but it isn't the only possible explanation. Regardless, I do feel like the objective of the nomination list is to take out either myself or Shoshin.

[Shoshin]

Volx, you need to promise me you're not going to mislynch Auro regardless of Irrel's flip.

[Auro]

Wait, if I missed questions I'll read again and answer them in a bit.

Yes, I was just thinking about your skepticism - and wondering how that was consistent with your D1 townread on me I pushed you on.

[volxen]

Best reason for lynching Volx today: to prevent Auro's mislynch later.

So you are going to literally advocate for my lynch based on this? I couldn't single-handedly lynch Auro even if I wanted to.

If you truly have Auro as 100% irreversible locktown, then explain that to me, because I play with him a lot and I don't find it easy to nail him down as locktown, especially on day one.

[volxen]

Wait, if I missed questions I'll read again and answer them in a bit.

Yes, I was just thinking about your skepticism - and wondering how that was consistent with your D1 townread on me I pushed you on.

I had you as a light townread on day one, not as full blown locktown. I didn't do much on day one, and I didn't have any strong reads one way or the other.

[volxen]

Volx, you need to promise me you're not going to mislynch Auro regardless of Irrel's flip.

If Irrelephant is actually nightkilled today, I can guarantee you that I won't push for Auro's lynch based on his flip alone. But I don't have Auro as locktown like you do, so I will continue to evaluate his slot.

[Irrelephant11]

Volxen have you shared a readslist this game day

[Irrelephant11]

If you post one in the next 60 seconds I’ll townread you more, promise

[Irrelephant11]

Re: volxen’s pagetop

I agree that scum was probably aware of me > Shoshin > you in terms of commonly held reads. I’m not sure that means the goal of nominating the three of us was to get you lynched. If Shoshin is scum (or if I am scum), I would agree that’s more likely. If we’re all town, though, I expect scum wanted wifom and the microscope that is getting nominated to reduce all our towniness. Scum would probably love to have me lynched with the way everyone has just decided I’m locktown (except for those of you who are voting me because wifom)

[volxen]

Volxen have you shared a readslist this game day

The only read that I feel completely confident in at the moment is that Alonzo is 100% locktown. I think that Shoshin is probably town because it would be risky for scum!Shoshin to nominate herself, based on the tiered reads from day one that I posted earlier. The idea being that if Irrelephant is never going to be lynched today based on being a day one consensus townread, then the only way that scum!Shoshin survives is if she can get me mislynched. In other words, I don't think scum!Shoshin would insert herself into a nomination list that includes one person more widely townread than herself (Irrelephant) and one person who wasn't townread on day one (Volxen), because it's a risky play to do so.

I also find Clemency scummy for the way he attacked RC all of day one, and then attacked me when I said that Alonzo is locktown.

[volxen]

I was a bit suspicious of Scumreading on day one because of his reasoning behind joining me on the Auro wagon, but he started today off for voting for me, and the reasoning he gave for voting for me was because I was mostly silent on day one, which I can understand. Then after I started posting he unvoted for me and said he would reconsider, which shows me he is willing to re-evaluate his read on me in light of new information. Still need to see more from him though.

[Irrelephant11]

Why is it risky for scum!Shoshin to put herself in a middle-tier, reads-wise?
Put another way, if scum decided to put one scum on the nominations list, Shoshin is the probably the towniest (if she is scum). Wouldn’t it make sense to put the towniest scum among the nominations in hopes of lynching one of the most widely townread players (me)?
Put another way, yeah duh it’s risky to put any scum anywhere in the nominations list: why does that mean Shoshin wouldn’t do it?

And separately: how else are you reading Shoshin?

[volxen]

UNVOTE:

[DoubtingThomas]

i am here briefly before i have to go for a meeting if people wanna interact with me. currently, not in a good mood for reasons i cannot talk about, but yeah

[DoubtingThomas]

Volxen have you shared a readslist this game day

The only read that I feel completely confident in at the moment is that Alonzo is 100% locktown. I think that Shoshin is probably town because it would be risky for scum!Shoshin to nominate herself, based on the tiered reads from day one that I posted earlier. The idea being that if Irrelephant is never going to be lynched today based on being a day one consensus townread, then the only way that scum!Shoshin survives is if she can get me mislynched. In other words, I don't think scum!Shoshin would insert herself into a nomination list that includes one person more widely townread than herself (Irrelephant) and one person who wasn't townread on day one (Volxen), because it's a risky play to do so.

I also find Clemency scummy for the way he attacked RC all of day one, and then attacked me when I said that Alonzo is locktown.

volxen is generating a lot of content and making reads that makes sense.

also, him constantly trying to solve the alignments and scum motive of the three nominations, while i think is all wifom and probably not lead to solving the game, i think is pretty townie both in the sense of motive, effort, and logic

[volxen]

Why is it risky for scum!Shoshin to put herself in a middle-tier, reads-wise?
Put another way, if scum decided to put one scum on the nominations list, Shoshin is the probably the towniest (if she is scum). Wouldn’t it make sense to put the towniest scum among the nominations in hopes of lynching one of the most widely townread players (me)?
Put another way, yeah duh it’s risky to put any scum anywhere in the nominations list: why does that mean Shoshin wouldn’t do it?

And separately: how else are you reading Shoshin?

Based on day one, you were considered more towny than Shoshin. Basically what I was saying this: scum!Irrelephant survives by ensuring that either town!Shoshin or town!Volxen is nightkilled today, which has a high probability of occurring if the tiered reads of Irrelephant > Shoshin > Volxen from day one continue throughout this day phase. Whereas Scum!Shoshin's option might be just limited to getting town!Volxen nightkilled, because you are already considered more towny than she is. That's what I was getting at.

But Shoshin isn't locktown for me, and I don't know if she takes big risks as scum as this is my first game with her (technically she was in Starcraft 2 Mafia, but she said that The Worst posted 95% of their slots content). I'll need to take some time to review her day one play. One thing I really didn't like was how she hammered GrandWazoo after I said that I wanted more time to analyze the game, because up to that point I hadn't done much on day one, and I didn't want to end the day phase several days early. Shoshin even told me to "take my time", and then she hammered GrandWazoo after that, and we had I think something like three days left before the deadline. I know that RC was screaming for a hammer here, but I thought we shouldn't have ended the day phase that early. And Shoshin did push GrandWazoo's wagon fairly aggressively.

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, You are the most familiar with Shoshin here, I take it. Does she make risky plays as scum generally, or is she more conservative as scum?

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, What are your thoughts on the fact that Shoshin has 100% townlocked Auro based on his day one play alone? This is her first game ever with Auro. Do you think that town!Shoshin would be able to so confidently townlock Auro like that? I realize Auro was essentially a day one consensus townread, but I believe that Shoshin is the only person who had him as 100% locktown by the end of day one.

[volxen]

I also asked Shoshin earlier why she has Auro as locktown and she never got back to me, and I'm not sure if she explained it previously either.