Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Irrelephant11]

can it be this easy shoshin/dennis/scum reading

Why not Vedith in the world where shoshin’s scum

[DoubtingThomas]

I would not lynch irrelephant just for being a sane voice

[Vedith]

you don't think i was defensive this game?

Not since I've been reading no. You're more barky.

[chennisden]

can it be this easy shoshin/dennis/scum reading

no; i replaced in this slot hoping for scum

and i was sorely disappointed

[chennisden]

I believe scumreading should be the next lynch, and Shoshin should be today's.

I do not want a volxen lynch at any rate.

[Vedith]

can you explain volxen? you don't think his earlier posts were good? although i am not sure why he self voted either. could be convinced here

It didn't jump out at me.
The self vote is after the Irrelle saying to be lynched so probably an attempt to be noble if I was having my Sunday roast, but it's still NAI.

[Vedith]

I believe scumreading should be the next lynch, and Shoshin should be today's.

I do not want a volxen lynch at any rate.

Well you're the new kid in the game so you don't get a say

[DoubtingThomas]

can it be this easy shoshin/dennis/scum reading

Why not Vedith in the world where shoshin’s scum

he can be. i think his town read on me is kinda weak, think it could be a scum trying to pocket me given our recently abudant number of games played together.

i think dennis is really likely to be scum, regardless of shoshin's alignment, with the way he came into thread, asked weak questions about the game's mechanics and only game solving posts he's made being he doesn't understand my push on shoshin and scum reading me while defending shoshin, despite the fact that he needs to sort between irrel/volxen/shoshin. it's easy posts to make as scum who just joined the game and really not townie for him to be considering the other 2 players who is in the nominations.

scum reading is a weaker scum read given that shoshin town read scum reading out of nowhere for reasons unexplained (no surprise there)

vedith also made a good point about how scum reading feels different in donner party game.

[DoubtingThomas]

I believe scumreading should be the next lynch, and Shoshin should be today's.

I do not want a volxen lynch at any rate.

wat

[DoubtingThomas]

I'm not getting this tunnel on Shoshin, and I don't like how Thomas read the scummy slots as towny.

I am aware my slot is scummy

but u wanna lynch shoshin now?

[Vedith]

Probabl6 Scum Chen.

[volxen]

UNVOTE:

Wanted to see how people would react to me self-voting.

[Vedith]

And what did you get?

[chennisden]

I'm not getting this tunnel on Shoshin, and I don't like how Thomas read the scummy slots as towny.

I am aware my slot is scummy

but u wanna lynch shoshin now?

I don't get

your

tunnel on her.

And out of the three, yes.

Out of everyone, definitely not.

[volxen]

I have Irrelephant as locktown now. Initially, I thought that the nomination list of {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} would be less risky for scum!Irrelephant than scum!Shoshin, based on Irrelephant being a consensus townread on day one. However, taking into account the dynamics of their history together, it’s clearly the other way around in terms of risk. Shoshin and Irrelephant seem to mutually agree that Shoshin is the stronger town player out of the two. Irrelephant has been consistently townreading Shoshin throughout the entire game (despite suggesting some degree of paranoia about scum!Shoshin), and he now seems to have her as locktown. At the beginning of the day Irrelephant said he would consider sacrificing himself this day phase; Shoshin did not do the same, and in fact recently made a rather lengthy self-meta “towncasing” post to try and establish herself as the strongest town player out of us three. There seems to be a mutual understanding between the two of them that if today’s lynch comes down to Shoshin or Irrelephant, since they both believe each other to be town, that Irrelephant should take the lynch on the basis that Shoshin is the strongest town player, and, therefore, needs to be around for day 3. Shoshin has been trying to push for me to be the lynch, but at the same time is keeping Irrelephant as a backup plan by saying thins like “why should we lynch the person with the strongest towngame (Shoshin) rather than the person with the strongest scumgame (Irrelephant)?”

Taking all of this into account, the problem with scum!Irrelephant is that he really only has one option with this nomination list: get me lynched. That’s his only play here, because he’s locked himself into a position where he can’t push Shoshin due to 1) townlocking her, 2) agreeing with the notion that she is the strongest town player, and 3) previously stating that he would consider taking the lynch today. Specifically, his position appears to be that he would sacrifice himself to stop Shoshin from getting lynched, but he wouldn’t do the same to stop me from getting lynched, which makes sense due to him having Shoshin as locktown and their history together.

From the perspective of scum!Shoshin, the assumption with this nomination list is that I would be the “easy lynch” based on my day one play, and the backup plan, since Irrelephant was already townreading her, was to establish herself as the strongest town player that *needs* to be around on day 3. And taking their history into account, as long as she could get Irrelephant to townlock her, she knew that he was unlikely to fight her on this and could probably be convinced to take the lynch if it came down to her or him. Especially since Irrelephant has apparently done this before as town. So as long as she could be reasonably confident that Irrelephant would be willing to step in and sacrifice himself if she was in danger of being wagoned, then the risk of her nominating herself as scum against Irrelephant and I was relatively low. Basically plan A for scum!Shoshin is to get me mislynched, plan B is to get Irrelephant mislynched by out-towning him and getting him to agree that she is more valuable than he is going forward. I also think it’s more likely that town!Irrelephant would incorrectly townread scum!Shoshin rather than the other way around, because Shoshin seems to be much more familiar with Irrelephant’s scumgame than Irrelephant is with Shoshin’s scumgame (he commented earlier in this game that his only experience with scum!Shoshin was one game where she had a third party role).

Another difference between the two of them is that Irrelephant is familiar with my town game and Shoshin is not. Irrelephant knows what it looks like when I “town it up”, and he knows that it’s possible for me to start suddenly towning it up out of nowhere after previously being very quiet. So he knows that I am not an easy mislynch, and he certainly knows that Shoshin isn’t an easy mislynch either. The risks of nominating himself against both Shoshin and I far outweigh any possible rewards. Whereas Shoshin could reasonably expect me to be an easy mislynch based on my day one play alone, which is all she would have to go on assuming she isn’t scum with Auro.

There’s also the issue of motivation. Irrelephant was already a consensus top-tier townread on day one, and he is likely to maintain this status as long as he continues to play like he did on day one. He arguably doesn’t gain any major benefit from inserting himself into a nomination list against Shoshin and I, especially when he knows that neither of us would be an “easy mislynch”, and he doesn’t really need the perceived towncredit from being a nominee due to already being a consensus top-tier townread. Shoshin on the other hand took some heat on day one, and her being nominated and then surviving this day phase arguably makes her look more towny on subsequent days by pushing the narrative that all of the nominees were likely town. The goal here would be to use the fact that she was a nominee to get herself townlocked.

So I’m convinced that Irrelephant is town, because I don’t think that scum!Irrelephant would insert himself into a nomination list where his options are “lynch Volxen or bust”. If he is going to nominate himself, he would want to at least be reasonably confident that he could push either of the other two nominees if it came down to it. I’m

MUCH

less confident on Shoshin being town, especially since she has been suggesting that I should be lynched due to paranoia that if I survive beyond this day phase I am likely to lead a mislynch on Auro. She also played a significant role in pushing GrandWazoo’s mislynch. And I don’t find self-meta towncasing towny as its inherently self-serving.

I originally thought Irrelephant could have been scum and nominated me for meta reasons, but now I see that that was completely wrong. Irrelephant being scum literally makes zero sense at this point. So Alonzo and Irrelephant are now both locktown for me.

[Vedith]

I'm not going to lie.
That's too much for me to read.

A TLDR?

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, If Shoshin is somehow locktown then help me to understand why, because I’m there with you but I don’t know how to get there with Shoshin. You know her better than anyone else here, and I am 100% convinced that you are town, so explain to me why you are convinced beyond all doubt that she is town.

[Alonzo]

Who's townreading Auro?

[DoubtingThomas]

volxen, what did you learn from your self-voting reaction test and what's your read on everyone else

[Shoshin]

@Irrelephant, If Shoshin is somehow locktown then help me to understand why, because I’m there with you but I don’t know how to get there with Shoshin. You know her better than anyone else here, and I am 100% convinced that you are town, so explain to me why you are convinced beyond all doubt that she is town.

Help me get to locktown on Irrel. If I can do that, I'll lynch you over him in a heartbeat.

[chennisden]

Alright; this game seems much different from a normal one.

For one, there's the unusually large amount of "personal" influences on this game. For instance, DT's grudge on Shoshin (which seems one-sided - I'll talk about that later in this post), and RC's replacing out.

Although it is understandably annoying to talk about these personal influences, I think we do need to look at them. For instance, I think you are all forgetting or conveniently ignoring (for scum) the fact that Shoshin egged the Wazoo lynch (and hammered!)

I don't think it's out of the question that DT is using their grudge against Shoshin so they can distance as scum. Ideally I'd vote DT for this, but this does not seem like an option.

Also, notice that Shoshin buddied RC (possibly to use him to guide mislynches). Notice that this buddying stops as soon as RC replaces out - which suggests something about meta.

While I realize this is an unlikely argument, we are presented with three bad choices. This is why I think Shoshin is most likely to be scum (as she may have put in volxen as the intended mislynch, and irrelephant to show that "scum chose town.")

VOTE: Shoshin

[chennisden]

I also do think that it is possible Clemency shitposted and generally ignored the game because he didn't want to deal with the AtE in this game, though I am not very familiar with him as a player.

[Shoshin]

Scum really want me lynched today.

[Shoshin]

If I made that town case for nothing, I'm going to be really upset with the townies in this game.

[Alonzo]

I think you need to better elaborate on some of your posts in the run up to yesterday's lynch shosh