Micro 857: Burden of Proficiency Mafia

[RadiantCowbells]

it's much easier to correctly call me scum than to actually do anything with it.

[Jingle]

Vote Count 4

Shoshin (0):
RadiantCowbells (0):
u r a person 2 (0):
Michael Scott (0):
Saudade (0):

Not Voting: u r a person 2, Michael Scott, Shoshin, Saudade, RadiantCowbells

Weightless votes:

Aubrey:
Enter: RadiantCowbells
Singletonking:

With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch!

Deadline is: (expired on 2019-03-20 16:00:00).

Jingle Note: I will not be locking this thread. You may continue to discuss here during the guess phase, although town has no reason to do so.

[RadiantCowbells]

not that a lot of people can do the former.

[Shoshin]

We'll see.

[RadiantCowbells]

ftr i'm not lock on you being town.

we really need the absentee slots to not be absentee.

[Michael Scott]

Okay, I've caught up. I wanted to run through some stuff with Volxen but he's not responding on Discord. I've some analysis to share but first, I want a couple questions cleared up:

1. Shoshin, RC, how confident are you in your URAP townreads?
2. URAP, do you believe you're an easy read? Can you link to some successful scumgames of yours?
3. Shoshin, when you called RC obvscum on Page 1, you reason that you weren't serious. However, you should know that RC gets annoyed at being scumread for what he perceives are bad reasons - what did you see yourself gaining by doing that, since his reaction would be the same regardless of alignment?

[RadiantCowbells]

yiiiiiiiiikes

[RadiantCowbells]

more analysis less questions to test the waters please.

[RadiantCowbells]

literally every question on that list looks like it's trying to test the waters for different lynches and gauge where you want to go.

[Michael Scott]

I'm asking those questions for a reason, RC.

I can show my analysis right now but I'd prefer the questions answered first - if you really want me to go ahead I will right now, though.

[Michael Scott]

Nah, once I post the rationale for them you'll understand.

[RadiantCowbells]

i do.

it's more important if you're town that you show that you're town than anything else.

[Michael Scott]

I understand. I did want to run this by Volxen first, but anyway, I'll compile my thoughts in a moment.

[Shoshin]

2. URAP, do you believe you're an easy read? Can you link to some successful scumgames of yours?

I already asked U2 for scumgames and he linked it. Have you read the game?

[RadiantCowbells]

btw i'm staying up for this

so if it's not coming let me know so I can sleep x_x

[Shoshin]

I can relate to that. Mafia keeps me up at night more than it should.

[Michael Scott]

From my perspective, at least one of the active posters - {RC, URAP2, Shoshin} has to be scum. I've played with URAP2 as town once in the past, and I don't recall any games with the other two outside of alts.

Considering for a moment that Saudade is town, this would imply two scum within {RC, URAP, Shoshin} - so I reasoned that if I can eliminate SvS pairs within the tuple, I can safely conclude that Saudade is scum, regardless of who the other scum within the tuple is.

There are only three possible SvS pairs: URAP+RC, URAP+Shoshin, RC+Shoshin. Of these, from my knowledge of the slots and also the current gamestate, it seems like I can go about eliminating the first two pairs first - reasoning being that if URAP was scum with one of them, the other would be competent enough to recognize URAP as scum. Thus, if both slots townread URAP, it's likely that URAP isn't scum. I want to follow this up with my own read of URAP - his play does remind me of SC2 where he was town, but I have to read up scumgames of his. I'm yet to scrutinize his play within this game alone. This is why I asked about your confidence in the townread.

Eliminating the pairs with URAP in them leaves RC+Shoshin as the remaining possible pair if Saudade is town, and is my primary interest in evaluating this game. ATM from my skim of the game so far I'm leaning against it - the primary indicator of it is right in the start, where Shoshin called RC obvscum and RC seems to have "misinterpreted" it. Theater also feels unnecessary in the case they're both scum as far as I can judge - but I'll re-read and refine my thoughts there.

If I can eliminate this pairing as well, I'll be confident enough from PoE that Saudade is scum.

Pedit: Shoshin, I'll check it out. I skimmed the game.

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm curious how you exclude shoshin/URAP because I've paranoiaed on that being a possibility several times.

[Shoshin]

I'm lying. U2 didn't link his game. It's all in the wiki.

[Michael Scott]

I haven't excluded any pair 100%

I'm reliant on you recognizing URAP scum if they're a scumpair - I've yet to form a read on URAP as well, which I'll do in due time.

[RadiantCowbells]

Why are you relying on me? @_@

[Michael Scott]

Are you not a very competent scumhunter?

[RadiantCowbells]

I mean I suppose but it's always good to get second opinions. particularly given if they're both scum I was alone getting pocketed by both of them for the entire thread so far.

[Michael Scott]

This situation is interesting as both you and Shoshin are reputed as extremely competent scumhunters, and URAP doesn't feel like a hard-to-read slot. URAP scum implies one of you has to be town, which means I can rely with a good degree of confidence.

[Michael Scott]

I mean I suppose but it's always good to get second opinions. particularly given if they're both scum I was alone getting pocketed by both of them for the entire thread so far.

I know this - which is why I'm not shying away from forming my own read, which I'll do when I get time.