Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Shoshin]

Which posts?

[DoubtingThomas]

Alright; this game seems much different from a normal one.

For one, there's the unusually large amount of "personal" influences on this game. For instance, DT's grudge on Shoshin (which seems one-sided - I'll talk about that later in this post), and RC's replacing out.

Although it is understandably annoying to talk about these personal influences, I think we do need to look at them. For instance, I think you are all forgetting or conveniently ignoring (for scum) the fact that Shoshin egged the Wazoo lynch (and hammered!)

I don't think it's out of the question that DT is using their grudge against Shoshin so they can distance as scum. Ideally I'd vote DT for this, but this does not seem like an option.

Also, notice that Shoshin buddied RC (possibly to use him to guide mislynches). Notice that this buddying stops as soon as RC replaces out - which suggests something about meta.

While I realize this is an unlikely argument, we are presented with three bad choices. This is why I think Shoshin is most likely to be scum (as she may have put in volxen as the intended mislynch, and irrelephant to show that "scum chose town.")

VOTE: Shoshin

This is not a real read

[volxen]

@Irrelephant, If Shoshin is somehow locktown then help me to understand why, because I’m there with you but I don’t know how to get there with Shoshin. You know her better than anyone else here, and I am 100% convinced that you are town, so explain to me why you are convinced beyond all doubt that she is town.

Help me get to locktown on Irrel. If I can do that, I'll lynch you over him in a heartbeat.

@Shoshin, My townlock of Irrelephant is based purely off of the fact that scum!Irrelephant inserting himself into a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list is far too risky for him, as I explained at length in a previous post. It's a "mechanical read" in that sense, but it's one that I am 100% confident of. Irrelephant is never scum in this game.

If you aren't going to be the "nightkill" today, then I want to resolve your slot once and for all before this day phase ends, regardless of which one of me or Irrelephant is "nightkilled". I believe that you are capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I fully trust Irrelephant at this point, so if he tells me that he is 100% confident that you are town, that will at least help me to feel better about your slot.

I would also like to know from Irrelephant how accurate he is at reading you on average in games where you are both town.

[chennisden]

or, well. that's a slight exaggeration. only gamma locktowned me p1. but i'm objectively the most townread player the entire game, i was in everyone's coalitions all game, i was the first person to start making everyone's townblocks, etc. then i go back to playing on my main and have to deal with all of this crap instead of breaking apart scumteams.

Is this the first time RC has exposed this alt?

[Alonzo]

Chem what is your full read list at this point?

[Alonzo]

Spoiler:

Alright; this game seems much different from a normal one.

For one, there's the unusually large amount of "personal" influences on this game. For instance, DT's grudge on Shoshin (which seems one-sided - I'll talk about that later in this post), and RC's replacing out.

Although it is understandably annoying to talk about these personal influences, I think we do need to look at them. For instance, I think you are all forgetting or conveniently ignoring (for scum) the fact that Shoshin egged the Wazoo lynch (and hammered!)

I don't think it's out of the question that DT is using their grudge against Shoshin so they can distance as scum. Ideally I'd vote DT for this, but this does not seem like an option.

Also, notice that Shoshin buddied RC (possibly to use him to guide mislynches). Notice that this buddying stops as soon as RC replaces out - which suggests something about meta.

While I realize this is an unlikely argument, we are presented with three bad choices. This is why I think Shoshin is most likely to be scum (as she may have put in volxen as the intended mislynch, and irrelephant to show that "scum chose town.")

VOTE: Shoshin

This is not a real read

Why makes you say this?

[Shoshin]

@Shoshin, My townlock of Irrelephant is based purely off of the fact that scum!Irrelephant inserting himself into a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list is far too risky for him, as I explained at length in a previous post. It's a "mechanical read" in that sense, but it's one that I am 100% confident of. Irrelephant is never scum in this game.

If you aren't going to be the "nightkill" today, then I want to resolve your slot once and for all before this day phase ends, regardless of which one of me or Irrelephant is "nightkilled". I believe that you are capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I fully trust Irrelephant at this point, so if he tells me that he is 100% confident that you are town, that will at least help me to feel better about your slot.

I would also like to know from Irrelephant how accurate he is at reading you on average in games where you are both town.

Why is nominating himself too risky for Irrel? Your previous explanation is insufficient. If you can't explain it to me in a simple sentence, the explanation is too complex to be correct and your confidence doesn't make me feel better at all. If anything, it just makes me lose faith in your ability to make sure town wins this after I'm dead.

And your paranoia that I'm scum but not Irrel doesn't make sense when your reasoning for townreading Irrel applies twice over to me. Like, it was 100x more risky for me to nominate myself than for Irrel to nominate himself, and Irrel's a stronger scum player than me to boot, meaning he's far more capable of deep wolfing than I am. Your logic is total nonsense, Volx.

If this is the level of your analysis as town, I have no confidence in your ability to win this game for town at all, no offense.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, My townlock of Irrelephant is based purely off of the fact that scum!Irrelephant inserting himself into a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list is far too risky for him, as I explained at length in a previous post. It's a "mechanical read" in that sense, but it's one that I am 100% confident of. Irrelephant is never scum in this game.

If you aren't going to be the "nightkill" today, then I want to resolve your slot once and for all before this day phase ends, regardless of which one of me or Irrelephant is "nightkilled". I believe that you are capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I fully trust Irrelephant at this point, so if he tells me that he is 100% confident that you are town, that will at least help me to feel better about your slot.

I would also like to know from Irrelephant how accurate he is at reading you on average in games where you are both town.

Why is nominating himself too risky for Irrel? Your previous explanation is insufficient. If you can't explain it to me in a simple sentence, the explanation is too complex to be correct and your confidence doesn't make me feel better at all. If anything, it just makes me lose faith in your ability to make sure town wins this after I'm dead.

And your paranoia that I'm scum but not Irrel doesn't make sense when your reasoning for townreading Irrel applies twice over to me. Like, it was 100x more risky for me to nominate myself than for Irrel to nominate himself, and Irrel's a stronger scum player than me to boot, meaning he's far more capable of deep wolfing than I am. Your logic is total nonsense, Volx.

If this is the level of your analysis as town, I have no confidence in your ability to win this game for town at all, no offense.

The shortened version of the explanation is that you know Irrelephant would sacrifice himself to stop you from getting lynched (as long as he was convinced that you are town), but you wouldn't do the same for him. That's why it's in fact "100x more risky" for scum!Irrelephant, because his only play here is to push me. You can push either of us.

You also confidently pushed GrandWazoo and you were wrong (if you are town).

[Shoshin]

If I'm killed after all the work I put in to defend myself, I'm going to be really upset. If I'm lynched, please follow my road map to winning. Don't deviate. Don't overthink things. Don't overcomplicate. Just follow the map. Irrel, don't fuck this up. It's on you to convince these players to follow.

You win by lynching Fusco, Chenn, Vedith, & DT. It doesn't matter what order. The lynch order for nominations is Fusco/Chenn/Vedith/DT (again it doesn't matter between them who goes first), Irrel/Volx (doesn't matter who), SR/Auro/Alonzo.

Under no circumstance should you ever lynch SR, Auro, or Alonzo unless all three have been nominated together, in which case lynch Auro because he's the strongest scum. You never lynch SR/Alonzo. Never.

[Shoshin]

The shortened version of the explanation is that you know Irrelephant would sacrifice himself to stop you from getting lynched (as long as he was convinced that you are town), but you wouldn't do the same for him. That's why it's in fact "100x more risky" for scum!Irrelephant, because his only play here is to push me. You can push either of us.

You also confidently pushed GrandWazoo and you were wrong (if you are town).

I don't know Irrel would sacrifice himself, nor would I ever take that risk as scum, nor do I think scum Irrelephant would actually sacrifice himself (saying he will and following through are two different things).

RC confidently pushed Wazoo. I allowed the lynch to happen but that doesn't mean he was my preferred lynch. Again, I tried directing things elsewhere in case that slipped you.

Irrel also voted Wazoo, but even worse, randomly townread obvscum Fusco.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, Why don't you have Irrelephant as locktown based on my analysis? From my point of view it's much harder to townlock you than it is to townlock Irrelephant. Which is why I have asked Irrelephant to help me with evaluating your slot.

[ejjinami]

Vote Count 2.11

Volxen:

(2) Vedith, Irrelephant11

Shoshin:

(2) DoubtingThomas, chennisden

Irrelephant11:

(1) Alonzo

Not Voting:

Auro, Fuscosco, Shoshin, scum reading, volxen

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-19 05:19:27)

[Shoshin]

@Shoshin, Why don't you have Irrelephant as locktown based on my analysis? From my point of view it's much harder to townlock you than it is to townlock Irrelephant. Which is why I have asked Irrelephant to help me with evaluating your slot.

You seem to think scum Irrel wouldn't nominate himself with me & Volx. I disagree with that analysis. It comes down to what we think scum Irrel would do. Scum Irrel's playbook is much more expansive than you're giving him credit for.

[scum reading]

You guys keep getting into WIFOMs. I town read Volxen and Shoshin and Irrelephant by a bit. We take a punch to the face this day, there’s no reason scum would want to be on here (at least that’s what i think) . I already gave my ideas, it’s just my pov, I think it’s too early for wifoms like this. There’s no way any of you that are scum would nominate like this. Imo the one of you who feel like not playing / are not into this game 100%, let us know and we’ll vote you off, we have complete control over scum, this lynch is basically like we’re picking the nightkill, none of our scum reads are on this nomination. My best guess is scum are afraid because of RC’s lock town slot as well as Irrelephant and Shoshin who had complete control over day one, so just vote the most useless townie. You keep digging this wifom hole when it really doesn’t matter who’s going to get lynched, I town read all of you, I don’t know if other people don’t, but to me this is a nightkill rather than a wifom

[scum reading]

Not trying to take your wifom guessing pleasure away or whatever, but this is really boring, pages fill up with the same wifom shit, focus on getting scums, not doing this. It’s just 5 people talking most of the time, you’re doing their jobs for them, wasting time aimlessly and falling into endless wifom when Shoshin should focus on scum and you giving your opinions, focus on other people as well, this is the night kill, give scum reads

[Irrelephant11]

Shoshin our of curiosity have you read my scum loss?

@SR If by going in circles we get two innocent children out of this game phase that feels worth it to me

[Irrelephant11]

@volxen I’ve always correctly townread Shoshin when she is town, and almost always have her as my strongest townread. This is the first time we’re playing together since she crushed it as 3p, which is why things have gone differently this time around

I do townread her now though, and she is currently my strongest townread I think
I’ll get back to you on the why, I need to check something from our previous game

[Irrelephant11]

Okay so let me just get real honest and say that I’d very much like Shoshin to be town here and of anyone on this site she’s probably the most capable of pocketing me
I’m going to spend the next 24 hours examining if I think that has happened
Regardless if she flips town we’re 100% following the directions she gave for who to lynch when (though I’d love more explanation about SR, Shoshin)

[Irrelephant11]

Irrel, promise me that if we're in LYLO together that you don't hammer until I've voted.

RC's better scum than me, Irrel. And my play looks nothing like my play as scum. I'm not pocketing anyone at all.

That's an important promise to me because of that game where I was locktown in LYLO with you and you jumped the gun before I had a chance to vote.

I'm never voting you, Irrel.

So here’s a minor pocketing moment. Shoshin brings up a past game and tells me I’m locktown (a read she still hasn’t fully explained, and which she has dropped at what could be seen as convenient times). Shoshin is like a deeper explanation on what made you say you’d never vote me.

Also as 3p she also did this “remember that one game we played together? Good times” thing and I don’t remember town!her ever doing this without using it to sort, which I don’t really see happening here?

[Irrelephant11]

Shoshin I’d like*

[Shoshin]

I'm done efforting in this game until I know whether I survive. You have the road map to victory, that's all you need.

[Irrelephant11]

I think I should be higher on the town list, the worst.

This is the other thing that has been bothering me. Shoshin did this to [what happened to be amazing scum in the end] early town leader TW. She did the same to me D1 here. I can’t find what game she said it in, but I do remember Shoshin once saying that if she ever rolls scum her plan is to insist she deserves townreads and act incredulous when anyone doesn’t townread her. I see tons of that in Starcraft Mafia in retrospect, certainly a lot less here but still quite a bit. I can’t tell if its to an extent that it’s AI this game, though.

Keeping in mind that as I say all of this I still find Shoshin’s aggressive scum hunting this game to be towny on its own and also similar to her town meta. I’m mostly concerned with the possibility that her scumgame is fantastic. I have read her first scumgame and it’s terrible, which is what’s given me the confidence to townread her easily in other games. But idk if I should look at her recent 3P game as more representative of her scumgame - at the very least, she has had some posts that remind me of her 3P tactic to garner townreads.

Pedit: oh

[Shoshin]

I feel like that post was a massive scum tell for me in Starcraft and there's nothing even close to that in this game. I never said you should townread me here, I said you shouldn't scumread me. Big difference.

[Irrelephant11]

I feel like you should townread me more than RC, Irrel.

[Irrelephant11]

Which is not word for word the same, but functionally means the same based on the readslist I had just shared