Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[mcqueen]

Someone asked for reads:

Scum: (in order)
Shoshin
Gamma
Alisae
Vedith
Clem

Town:
Everyone else

Like these reads and Eagles play as of late. I agree with his 1553 as well; I think Dannflor is town

[mcqueen]

more to come later i’ve only skimmed the last 7 pages

[Reiuji Utsuho]

I'll come back tomorrow for this because I'm just not feeling for it at this moment.

Meanwhile

its okay I'll still have Reiuji when day 3 hits

You shouldn't rely on me to do anything awesome.
I'm not a good player <_<

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Meanwhile I don't really get Jingles scumread so I guess tomorrow I'll read in detail the reasoning.
My Day 1 townreads will go stale soon anyway.

[Reiuji Utsuho]

My Day 1 townreads being Vedith and DDL really.

xtomx townread I think I'm keeping because of this.

[Jingle]

I have ~ 100% correct read rate on dannflor

now tbf one of the games i was scum w/ him in

and the other two/three were marathons

But he's town

pretty sure of it.

and I'm not lynching outside of my six

How the fuck do you agree with this, mr. carman?

[Jingle]

I have ~100% correct read rate on Alisae.
now tbf I've never actually played a game with Alisae
I've just modded or spectated them
But e's town
pretty sure of it
and I'm only lynching people I'll vote

[Extrapolated Eagle]

My point is I was scum w/ Dannflor in the game you noted. But let's look at it, shall we?

Spoiler: Dannflor's Catch-up in ND

Hi! UNVOTE: Nancy, because that's not a good vote.

I read (skimming parts) all 100 pages of this damn game in a few hours this afternoon and took notes as I went. No idea what that did to my brain or if I'll survive the brain vomit I'm about to do. I'm gonna try to get it all out there anyways and hopefully the end product is worthwhile.

A reads list? We're doing a reads list. This will not be in order nor can I guarantee that it will display any degree of coherency. I'm gonna color reads for better readability.

Nancy Drew: Town.

The way she gives out town reads especially during D1 does not read scum. In general, she's given me the impression of being one of the more involved solvers this game just based on the way she approaches things and her presence. I've gone back through her ISO more carefully since skimming and nothing sticks out as contrived to me so I'm gonna stick with my gut town read. Additionally, I don't think scum urges Leodanny to claim like she does in post #605. In fact, I don't really think scum wants to appear that involved in that lynch.

I also just townread her based on her interactions with Flavor Leaf/Varsoon and that whole neighborhood fiasco. That whole debacle reads TvT to me actually. Neither side is scum intentionally trying to misrepresent each other, that just doesn't make sense when you consider there are other neighbors to corroborate stories and it's just too risky. No, this reads more like a communication breakdown between two town players who are upset at being lied to/misrepped when it's really just players misinterpreting things. I would be shocked if there was anything intentionally nefarious going on there.

Varsoon/Flavor Leaf: Town.

Town read Varsoon from the start. The wagon on him D1 is mostly built on BS? Which in itself not super indicative either way but I don't think his reaction to a BS wagon comes from a scum place. His cop gambit is a little dumb but again, what scum ever fucking does that? I'm not just gonna brush that off as WIFOM, it's a serious question. Ordinarily you might say he's trying to draw a counter claim, but A: Varsoon wasn't dangerously close to a lynch and didn't have to risk that, and B: we already know there might be duplicate power roles in this game so there's no guarantee an actual cop would even think it worth to CC that. There's so much risk and no reward for scum. I don't think his attitude/rage towards sheep was fake at all. Flavor just tonally reads as obv town since he came in. And his spat with Nancy Drew solidified that for me. Flavor is a player I might want to do a meta check on eventually, but for right now I'm confident enough in the read I got on Varsoon and Flavor initially that my paranoia towards this slot is fairly low.

Let's talk about

Wagonomics: Town.

I don't know if it's bad or not that I wanna town read him for his claim alone. It makes sense, right? This seems to be a highish power town game so having some negative utility in there fits. Plus, his role is just so ridiculous it's hard for me to imagine him making it up. I don't have as much specific analysis for why this slot feels town, as it's mostly gut, but his reads/votes are not opportunistic and I think display a good degree of scum hunting. #1820 is a noteworthy post that pretty much exactly echoed my thoughts at that point in the game and is basically the exact opposite of opportunistic.

TheBrie: Leaning Scum.

I have "THE BRIE IS SCUM," "DRIE IS SO SCUM," and "THE BRIE IS FUCKING SCUM" written in three separate instances on the first page of my notes. I really really hated the play from this slot during D1. And I'm still not a big fan. In general, she asks a lot of questions and says a lot of things that don't actually push the game forward. Her presence is empty, she waffles around and fence sits way too much. A lot of discrediting her own reads by calling them provisional which allows her a lot of flexibility. This being said, HOWEVER, post #2096 made me rethink this because she explicitly says waffling is just something she does, and then provides meta. I would not expect scum to defend like this and instead try to actually take some hard stances. Her recent play has also been a bit better, but it's not enough to swing my initial strong scum read I got early game.

Bleh let's get some of these slots out of the way:

Xtoxm: lean town?

His role in the Flavor/Nancy spat makes me think town largely. Now, this is dependent on my town reads there being correct, but since they're some of my most confident reads I'm fine with doing this. I don't think scum get's so involved/takes one side or another. Instead, I'd expect scum to sit on the sidelines for that more and try to get it to continue/inflate the conflict more. Scum lives off of TvT 1v1s. not much else about his ISO really sticks out. The main reason I ? this slot is because I town read the whole claimed neighborhood and I find it unlikely that all the members are town. If PartyBoat is town, this one might be scum. I could be falling into a trap assuming there can't be an all town neighborhood in this game, but with seemingly so much town power revealed already, it seems unlikely?

Kokichi: Town ig.

I gut read him as town. He's a lurker but actually pushes for things and takes stances that I read genuine. It means I believe the IC claim but regardless I'm not gonna spend a bunch of time analyzing this slot because it'll be resolved tomorrow one way or another.

Ausuka: Leaning a bit Town.

I skimmed more than I read the most recent pages, so I'm not too clear why there's a wagon on this slot. I think it's probably a mislynch. She never ever thinks the Leo wagon is a good idea, even before it gets really bad and scum can be sure it'll go through anyway. Nothing in her ISO reads scummy to me so I'm gonna need someone to spell out the case on her. I'd would agree with the narrative that two mislynches are being setup today for town to choose between. However, I don't like post #2354 from Ausuka. It feeds into the BS narrative that we HAVE to lynch either my slot or Ausuka today which... I feel is being pushed by scum (more on that later). This is no deadlines mafia, having "no reason to town read someone" is not the best excuse to lynch someone. This would make more sense in a game with deadlines. However, I'm willing to give it a pass because of the heavy narrative being pressed that we NEED a lynch soon and that the game is stalling out. This could very well be a town survival instinct because of that.

Vaxkiller: Probably Scum.

His push on Varsoon is bad. His push on Gamma is bad. His push on sheep is bad. His push on ausuka is bad. Everything about his play is opportunistic and weak. He has tons of short posts that are effectively fluff and seems to have been able to just blend in until recently. I just have no good things to say about this slot and I'd be fine lynching here today. However, there is another slot I want to lynch more and there's still the off chance Vax is just really bad town.

Let's do the last neighbor:

PartyBoat: Mixed.

Bleh. I gut read this slot initially and I liked how he behaved around the Leodanny lynch. He really pushed for Leodanny to give reads and tried to give him a lifeline so Leo wouldn't just keep trolling and get killed. Obviously it didn't work out, but his attempts read genuine. However, I dislike the way he tunnels Varsoon/Flavor and then seemingly only backs off when Flavor replaces in and won't be an easy lynch, despite the fact that PartyBoat is clearly still suspicious. His pocketing of Sheepsaysmeep esp during the Varsoon vs. Sheep spatfest was also yucky. I HATE the whole narrative that Varsoon is obv scum or that there was gonna be a huge wagon but there was last second resistance. That narrative is purported by Sheep and PartyBoat mainly and that seems very gamestate controlly/manipulative. Because it's not true and I don't think the Varsoon slot was ever in any real danger of being lynched. I also very much think Sheep is scum so these two could be buddies, but maybe the buddying is too obvious then. Regardless, lots of conflicting thoughts on this slot.

Sheepsaysmeep: Scum.

This is where I'd like to lynch. He is one of the few players I've actually had experience with before and I scum read him basically as soon as I entered the game. I could say a lot about this slot. If he's town in this game, then his town game is exactly the same as his scum game. His whole wavery, BSing playstyle can be seen pretty clearly towards the end of D1, though it's evident throughout.

VOTE: leo


meh

UNVOTE:

yeah im super lost on that slot rn

VOTE: varsoon

meh

VOTE: leo

i guess

This REEKS of scum trying to make themselves look better in wake of the Leo flip. It's one of the most noncommittal things that's happened in the game and there are a couple waffley players. It's just not genuine whatsoever. Furthermore, while I thought Flavor vs. Nancy was TvT, the same vibes do not arise from Sheep v. Varsoon/Flavor. I would expect town!sheep to reconsider or back down slightly at some point during all of that drama but he KEEPS TUNNELING. Which is not at all in accordance to his waffely play elsewhere so you can't just say that's a play style. I'm trying not to be biased by my prior experience with this player but I can't stop seeing the similarities between his game here and his scum game.

The most offending factor is the narrative that this day must end soon. It's bullshit. Yes, obviously we need a lynch eventually and we don't want the game to stall out. But we JUST got a bunch of replacements, from the vibes I'm getting the game is in a much better place discussion wise now than it ever was D1 or fake cop claim drama earlier today. This pushed narrative also coincides with sheep's activity dropping significantly, basically once he realizes his continued tunnel on Varsoon/Flavor is just going to make him look suspicious.

we're lynching someone within 24 hours and i give 0 fucks about who that is at this point

Even now he continues to pull this shit. There is not a fucking deadline, only a self imposed deadline primarily driven by sheep's fake frustration. I don't believe for a second his "demotivation" to play this game after the Leodanny flip when he CLEARLY wasn't all that enthused about the lynch in the first place (according to the quoted posts above). Or was that just fake to make himself look better, hmmmmm. The "0 fucks about who we lynch" is not a town mindset in a no deadline game. Lynching either my slot or Ausuka's gives relatively little information about the state of the game, similar to how Leodanny's lynch wasn't super helpful because he was just easy mislynch bait. Sheep isn't trying to make the game better he's just pushing this narrative of needing a lynch soon but lowkey calling them all bad lynches so that when they flip town he can have town cred.

Before I forget: VOTE: Sheepsaysmeep

I should talk about other players before I run out of juice for tonight.

Purrcocet: Null?

This player has actually made no impression on me and I apparently have nothing in my notes about them. Which, ironically, has made an impression on me. That's not a great sign for a game with 100 pages already. I have at least vague feelings or brief mentions in my notes on almost every other player but this one. Bleh. Nancy says they're a fruit vendor? I'm not familiar with the role, that's not a strict town or scum thing yea? My reads seem to line up with this slots fairly well so that makes me wanna give it town points. I'll do a more thorough ISO later and see if I can get a better feeling for this slot. Nothing jumps out at me as particularly bad, but that's not really a town tell.

Mastina: Leaning scum.

My notes have Theta marked as scum before the replacement. I didn't like the fencesitty play and I don't really think the PR claim clears that up because it could just as easily be a scum JK. Though, while that setup makes more sense in my head I'm unsure scum would actually CC. I dislike Mastina's entrance to the game, her VCA looks like a lot of productive townie stuff but does effectively nothing. I also dislike her call out of today's wagons being mislynches but still being on my wagon?? The observation is good but the actions don't line up. Regardless, this is a claimed PR and will probably be resolved eventually? I don't imagine scum wants to leave a JK alive.

It's getting late here and I have to get up early tomorrow (already surviving on 5 hrs of sleep) so I think I'll have to stop and pick up tomorrow morning.

Ooh, Gamma is town I think, I can talk about that tomorrow. The rest of the players I have mainly gut reads on right now, and it'll take some more time to organize my thoughts on them (should look at purr more too), but for now here's a rough ranking from towniest to scummiest:

Enter/Hebichan
vonflare
jingle/edosurist (is a scum triple voter likely?)
wisdom
singletonking
trekkie
light_ganski

^^ I'll tackle these players and Gamma tomorrow, hopefully I was mostly coherent, ask if you need clarification

Lemme know if I've missed anything or if there's anything i should know, srry for wall, but I'd rather do this to catch up on a 100 page game than spam post 80 times

Let's lynch Sheep! goodnight

Differences between catch up this game and catch up in No Deadlines:
1. Effort: A lot more into No Deadlines because Image is Everything as scum
2. Stances: Here he posts a lot of thoughts that seem genuine and uninformed, ND he was informed but trying to take somewhat controversial stances
3. Vote: Here he unvotes because he doesn't know who scum is so he doesn't know how to position himself to seem town (grapes is popular wagon, he questions why people are joining it and tries to understand it), No Deadlines he placed a vote because he knows who scum is and how to put some distance in between scum and himself (sheep was the popular wagon, he moved his vote from Nancy, town, to sheep, scum)

[Extrapolated Eagle]

So quit your mumbling about being wrong on Dann. I can go deeper in if I want to, but you're obviously just letting the paranoia get to you. I've spent quite a bit of time w/ Dannflor, quit treating my three + games of experience like it's nothing.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Also if you look at No Deadlines or 8-Ball you'll recognize that I'm actually terrible as scum, and I was caught in both immediately upon entering the game.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

I'm still looking at Lycanfire.
I know I had him as strong town earlier and this looks kinda bad on me but rereading his posts is giving me pause.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Ok so in isolation, Lycanfire's posts look... a bit like they're an overreaction, tailored to build a case on someone where it doesn't belong, an investment where he had no previous show of investment. However, upon following through, I think I still townread Lycanfire. I follow his thought process relatively closely, although some of it feels strange to me, it doesn't feel WRONG or scum motivated.

Spoiler: Early Game Interaction Used For Sorting Lycan

Learning how differently people react to me now was very strange for me.

kill eagle because i simply dont want to read his posts. it is not to my liking

But this game, ah, this is going to be a good one.


Frozen Angel's first posts weren't particularly manipulative which is why I changed my vote, if anyone's wondering.

VOTE: Extrapolated

Frozen Angel's first posts weren't particularly manipulative which is why I changed my vote, if anyone's wondering.

Did anyone else have this reaction to FA's posts?

1. does it matter

2. should he need a reason to change his rvs vote

3. is any of this actually ai even though it looks ai

this my super easy rqs round where all the questions have the same answer!

Reactions matter, yes. The issue isn't whether he needs a reason to change his vote, it's whether a townie would react the way he did.

Reactions matter, yes. The issue isn't whether he needs a reason to change his vote, it's whether a townie would react the way he did.

I was de-compiling everything about it

Does it matter? - Scum intent is to pocket, town intent is to bait

Should he need a reason? No, giving one is bad

Is any of this AI? Only if you ignore half of the variables like you did

VOTE: Shoshin

What variables did I ignore?

Whether he needed a reason to change his vote. That's crucial to figuring out his intent regarding FA.

Now whether

I

personally felt that way about FA, no, I don't think FA can exploit me at all beyond making herself out to be complete lynchbait. That's a form of manipulation in the sense that you can technically eat ice cream through your nose.

When it comes to reactions the only ones that really matter are his, FA's, and anyone who has played in games with both of them.

In addition, I like the grapes vote. I think a quickhammer on scum is more likely to come from town than scum.

[Jingle]

So quit your mumbling about being wrong on Dann. I can go deeper in if I want to, but you're obviously just letting the paranoia get to you. I've spent quite a bit of time w/ Dannflor, quit treating my three + games of experience like it's nothing.

no u

[Alisae]

I have ~100% correct read rate on Alisae.
now tbf I've never actually played a game with Alisae
I've just modded or spectated them
But e's town
pretty sure of it
and I'm only lynching people I'll vote

why am I intrigued by the structure of the post way more then what ur saying

[Jingle]

cause it's slightly meme-y

[Alisae]

okay that would explain it.

[Jingle]

Differences between catch up this game and catch up in No Deadlines:
1. Effort: A lot more into No Deadlines because Image is Everything as scum
2. Stances: Here he posts a lot of thoughts that seem genuine and uninformed, ND he was informed but trying to take somewhat controversial stances
3. Vote: Here he unvotes because he doesn't know who scum is so he doesn't know how to position himself to seem town (grapes is popular wagon, he questions why people are joining it and tries to understand it), No Deadlines he placed a vote because he knows who scum is and how to put some distance in between scum and himself (sheep was the popular wagon, he moved his vote from Nancy, town, to sheep, scum)

Similarities.

Surface level analysis that is entirely fakeable and subsequent townreads. I'm not saying the catchup makes him scum, but it's most certainly not enough to townbin him.

He most certainly cares about his image, and if he doesn't I'd suggest rereading his ISO, or alternatively just the one post that is the bulk of the reason I'm scumreading him.
Stances is a thing, so quote some stances you think are town.
You're assuming a motivation and basing evidence around that. Additionally, in No Deadlines, he voted sheep, true. I was pretty much the only person who wanted a sheep lynch, and there was no way that wagon was going through that day. I was also obvtown AF. Sheeping obvtown on a lynch that straight isn't gonna happen is a pretty reasonable thing to do as scum. It's also a thing that he couldn't have possibly have done here.


Also, I in no way support the assumption that one game where you were scum partners and several marathons makes you capable of reading him.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

You don't have to support the assumption for it to be true.

And the sheep lynch almost did go through, or did you forget?

You're ignoring variables to push a lynch on obvtown and I'm not interested.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Also please note the irony of chastising me for reading him off of a couple different games while you try to read him off of a single one - and a single one that happens to be one in the many of my sample size.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

Your read on him is based in paranoia and it doesn't belong.

[NerfedBuJ]

Dann's post TRing me was strange and scummy, but I admit I'm having a hard time believing he's scum when his other posts seem townie enough and even more importantly, he replaced DT, a townie slot.

[DrDolittle]

I want to talk about Vedith and have people convince me he is town

[DrDolittle]

It seems like he's the one of the highest variance read person?

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: xtoxm

[DrDolittle]

Out of my three guys one of them isnt even playing the game