BoP Mafia Chat

[Michael Scott]

Hammer when you come online ASAP, mention something about how RC's only going to drag the game and shiz.

[Michael Scott]

Still worried about Paragons guessing us.

[Michael Scott]

Okay damnit, we lost our chance.

[Shoshin]

I wasn't around.

[Michael Scott]

Yeah it's okay. Volxen's gonna obvtown in a bit, hopefully.

[volxen]

Sigh, it never fails, every game with RC quickly gets to 60+ pages and I have a hard time keeping up thanks to him . Actually, this game just started at a time where I was busier than normal IRL. I'll post when I'm all caught up with reading, but from what I've read so far I think we can start pushing URAP2+Saudade as a scumteam; the fact that URAP2 voted for Saudade and then unvoted after we also voted for Saudade can be used to argue that URAP2 and Saudade are scum together and that URAP2 was white flag gambiting by voting for Saudade, and he panicked and unvoted when he saw that someone else voted for his scumbuddy. And that from our POV, the lack of a quickhammer on Saudade after getting up to two votes also makes it more likely that he is individually scum, separate from our scumread of URAP2.

It's also a good thing for us to push because if we keep talking about scum!Shoshin, we are probably eventually going to get called out on our bluff and if people start voting for Shoshin, we won't have a good reason for not joining on the bandwagon.

So basically, from our POV RC is our strong townread, we are still uncertain about Shoshin, and we feel that URAP2+Saudade is the most likely scumteam.

[Auro]

I approve.

[Auro]

Just post your megapost here first and I'll vet it.

[Shoshin]

Can you come up with a reason to townread me? And yes, post here first for feedback.

[volxen]

Shoshin, have you faked any of your towntells that you are known for in this game? I was thinking I could fake like I did a big meta dive of several of your town games, and found those same town tells in this game. But I would need you to link to those town games in here and point out what the towntells are, and then I would act like I uncovered all of this on my own.

[Shoshin]

Not that I know of.

[Auro]

I think RC's decided on the lynch now? He virtually controls the lynch at this point.

[Shoshin]

It might be me. Which would explain why he's not playing normal. He could be dreading a 1v1 against me.

[Auro]

Eh, probs me from the last page. I'm prepared to fight. :3
Think this might be my first scum loss, nooooo

[Auro]

Shoshin, we need to engage for me to come around to you being town. Without the engagement it'll look damn fake if I try to townread you.

Although at this point idk

[volxen]

Here is what I plan to post soon:

[volxen]

Auro and I strongly believe that URAP2 and Saudade is the scumteam. Saudade has gotten up to L-1 twice now. The first time his wagon was {Shoshin, URAP2} and the second time it was {URAP2, Michael Scott}. URAP2 is the common denominator here, and we believe that URAP2 is white flag gambiting because he saw it successfully used by the scumteam in his half-mast nightless game. He’s been on Saudade’s wagon twice now, and after Auro voted for Saudade and then unvoted him a few minutes later, he jumped on Auro and said it was bad that Auro placed the vote, and continued to maintain this position even as Auro explained that he didn’t think a URAP2+Shoshin scumteam was all that likely (thus making it safe from his POV to put Saudade up to L-1), and that furthermore if URAP2+Shoshin was the scumteam, he didn’t think that Shoshin would come in and quickhammer because that would then become an easy solve for the Paragons. Then Auro put his vote back on Saudade (putting him back up to L-1 again), and after that URAP2 switched his vote from Saudade to us. So if Auro and I are correct in our solve, then URAP2 is not only white flag gambiting to make it look he isn’t scum with Saudade, but he is furthermore trying to turn the tables on us and make it look like we are the ones white flag gambiting with Saudade.

And aside from all of that, URAP2 has literally been shading our slot for the entire game, claiming confidence in the beginning of the game that there had to be scum among {Michael Scott, Saudade} before either of us had posted. This was entirely a POE solve and he didn’t even wait for us to start posting before drawing conclusions about our alignment. And then after Auro made his first few posts where he stated that he had skim read through the game, URAP2 shaded him by trying to insinuate that Auro falsely claimed to be caught up when he really wasn’t caught up, which wasn’t even the case. He tried to get RC to vote for us when he knew that RC was drunk posting in the thread. He’s voted for us repeatedly throughout the game, and while he has shaded and voted for Saudade at various points, he always circles back to voting for us and accusing us of being scum. And so on and so forth.

And Saudade’s progression from tunneling Shoshin to now believing that the scumteam is {URAP2, Michael Scott} doesn’t make sense. For most of the game he felt that Shoshin was misrepresenting him by pointing out things that he is doing in this game and falsely tying them to his scum games (e.g., claiming that Saudade is more likely to post a lot as scum rather than town, that he puts in more effort as scum, etc.). He seems to now have conveniently abandoned his case against Shoshin in favor of pushing {URAP2, Michael Scott} as the scumteam. URAP2 and Saudade have been consistently shading each other, but conveniently have come to a consensus on our slot being scum.

From our point of view the most logical explanation for all of this is that they are scum together and have been gambiting hard to make it look like a {URAP2, Saudade} scumteam is not possible. This is why all of URAP2’s shading and voting for Saudade is always followed by him circling back to voting for and shading our slot. Because his willingness to lynch Saudade has never been genuine, and if they are scum together, he was confident that Saudade would never be quickhammered while he was at L-1. Which makes sense because RC has repeatedly said that no one should hammer until he is ready to do, so if they are scum together it was extremely unlikely that RC or Shoshin would have come in and hammered Saudade when his wagon was {URAP2, Michael Scott}.

[Jingle]

Eh, probs me from the last page. I'm prepared to fight. :3
Think this might be my first scum loss, nooooo

If so, I'm proud to have been involved. Either way, this game breaks a perfect record.

[volxen]

Let me know what you think Auro and/or Shoshin, but I think I should probably go ahead and post that tonight. I think this is our only play here, to convince RC that we are right about URAP2 and Saudade being scum together and white flag gambiting.

[Shoshin]

RC's scumread is you two. I don't think it'll be possible to change his mind but you need to try.

[Michael Scott]

Volxen, why aren't you posting yet :$

[volxen]

So you are OK with that wall then, Auro?

[Michael Scott]

YES! Post it ASAP.

[volxen]

The good news is that RC is literally unwilling to lynch Shoshin.... regardless of his thoughts on her alignment. So if we can convince him to lynch either URAP2 or Saudade I think we have a good chance at winning this. It seems my wall-post is causing him to genuinely reconsider his "100%" scumread of us.

Enter is a major problem, though. He has mentioned "MS+Shoshin" as the scumteam consistently all throughout the game, and he is clearly the dominant one among the three Paragons. Our short-term goal is to get one of URAP2 or Saudade lynched, but we also need Enter to believe that whichever one wasn't lynched is partnered with either us or Shoshin.

If URAP2 is lynched, I think Saudade/Shoshin or Saudade/MS are still plausible scumteams. Or if Saudade is lynched, I think URAP2/Shoshin or URAP2/MS are still plausible scumteams.

Is there anything we can do to make MS/Shoshin seem like the least likely scumteam combination, regardless of whether URAP2 or Saudade is lynched?

We are also allowed to keep posting in the game thread after we lynch and the game goes to the guess phase, so we can still try to influence the Paragons when the game gets to that point.

[Shoshin]

I don't think we do anything to make MS/Shoshin unlikely, we just play it out. I think our only hope is the paranoia on RC that will result after RC leads a lynch on town. That's what we need to let happen.