Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]

[Ankamius]

NMSA/tris are my top two scumreads but that feels too fucking easy. with this setup there's no way this is a slam dunk

Yeah this doesn't feel at all correct.

It took something like a week from after the push on Flubber came out for him to make the IC defense, and beyond that I didn't really detect this abject dejectedness that would've been present in a scumteam that was entirely in the spotlight for that long.

Among that is that Flubber just carried on like it was nothing during the push, and both of the projected scumpartners were on that wagon at the same time during that push.

NMSA would have to be doing a reverse chainsaw or whatever the term is to be scum with Flubber thanks to the haphazard weird votes on him, which isn't necessarily incorrect but would be a weird thing for him to do just because.

Tris was the slot that put Flubber to l-1 initially when his wagon far overtook everyone else. That's basically suicide.

This all feels like it would require a scum mastermind to pull off with this specific team and I'm really not seeing it with this teamcomp, sorry.

[Ankamius]

Votecount 1.14

tris(5)

~ skitter30(221), Brigitte(240), Elbirn(217), Creature(36), Flubbernugget(78)

Brigitte(4)

~ Ankamius(304), tris(119), xRECKONERx(124), Xtoxm(255)

skitter30(1)

~ Nimueh(192)

Nimueh(1)

~ NotMySpamAccount(79)

Elbirn(1)

~ Chara(137)

Ankamius(1)

~ Succinct(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-08 00:58:59).

Mod Notes:

skitter30 is V/LA on weekends.
Nimueh is V/LA while sick.

Votecount 1.Final

Brigitte(7)

~ Ankamius(304), tris(119), xRECKONERx(124), Xtoxm(255), Chara(137), Succinct(55), Brigitte(240)

tris(3)

~ Elbirn(217), Creature(36), Flubbernugget(78)

skitter30(1)

~ Nimueh(192)

Nimueh(1)

~ NotMySpamAccount(79)


Not Voting (1): skitter30(221)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-08 00:58:59).

Mod Notes:

skitter30 is V/LA on weekends.
Nimueh is V/LA while sick.

The heat has a way of getting to you on a clear day out at sea. Brigitte was nervous. Was she next?

Her paniced behavior did not go unnoticed. Soon enough, a crowd of people had surrounded her, questioning her as to knowledge or guilt regarding what happened to the Captain. For Brigitte, it became too much.

Someone started shouting at the crowd, trying to separate them.

"Get back! Give her some space!"

But it was too late. As the crowd parted, she was nowhere to be found, having thrown herself overboard.

Brigitte,

Crewman

, was lynched Day 1.

Day 1 ends. Day 2 begins.

Flubber put Tris at L-2 before Brigitte and Skitter jumped off of that wagon, so Tris is probably town because of this.

Another reason that team doesn't work.

It requires a mastermind.

[Ankamius]

I'm actually not entirely sure about whether there's a mastermind in this game or not.
I think only Succinct would fit the qualifications necessary for it to be possible.

It would be well outside of my range to plan an elaborate bus like that and to have it get so close before failing, I can't plan specifics like that
NMSA nope
tris nope
Creature nope
Nimueh not her style
Chara doesn't feel like it's within its range to do so? Very rough personality read but doesn't seem likely
XRECKONERx I'm not sure actually, I think he would be much more direct if he wanted to control the game though, seems not to be his style
Skitter can make plans like these, but planning specific details down to the wire enough to parry this kind of gamestate indirectly probably is out of her range
Succinct CAN do this, but I also believe that this slot being scum only works in very specific teams that I can't specifically point to atm, but it will stay in the back of my head while I work

So scum mastermind is unlikely, it is a lot more probable that scum tried to subtly shift the gamestate directly.

[Ankamius]

I'll be back later, reading into skitter is next because she's suspect #1 for that type of slot and I need to do a really deep analysis of her to be able to pin down as scum or rule her out entirely.

And for that I need to be at my desktop

[Ankamius]

I guess it's technically possible that scum gave up on saving Flubber, but that still doesn't really gel with how Flubber was playing? Maybe it need it to sit in my head for a bit

[xRECKONERx]

what makes you put chara in the townpile ank

talk about this?

my faith in my read on ank was wavering so i was trying to engage him to discuss one of his reads esp since ank had given reasons for the townread on tris but to my knowledge hadn't given any for you

[xRECKONERx]

Well then. This changes a lot. Given the aforementioned case on why tris is town, and the fact that I know I'm town, reck almost certainly scumreads two town players. Even if I'm not obvtown, tris is because Flubber and scum in general wouldn't be that suicidal. This means reck is more likely than average to be scum. VOTE: reck

so brave

[xRECKONERx]

i really need to get a better feel for what succinct is doing. they've been completely off my radar like the entire game

[Succinct]

I'd much rather not hit a situation where they're scum and end the day before I really look at them and just kill me, then charisma through to victory

It's more conductive worrying I'm town, scum kill you, then my lack of charisma leads to loss.

I wouldn't even call pushing on Flubber after the IC thing town indicative

Nor I.

I'm actually not entirely sure about whether there's a mastermind in this game or not. I think only Succinct would fit the qualifications necessary for it to be possible.

Noteworthy: I replaced into this game, wasn't here from start. You should check if Enter's mastermind-worthy.
I'm also no mastermind on this account. I've the qualifications if on my main, but lack them here.

I too am of the opinion this game lacks a mastermind.

I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.

E.g.:

i have been very clearly off the mark and got got by flubber's random play
i need to reevaluate this game. i still think tris is a good lynch but after the flub flip i dont feel so great about my ability to read anyone.

like i can't even argue with people wanting to lynch me. my defense of flubber looks really really bad and i cannot defend it because it was shit based on gut. and couple that with me leading the brigitte charge d1 and yeah, i get the desire to lynch me. im not even sure i particularly have it in me to fight the lynch because it's deserved.

I know scum

can

post this.
I don't think scum-Reck

does

.

NMSA/tris are my top two scumreads but that feels too fucking easy. with this setup there's no way this is a slam dunk

That's too easy, but what about NMSA/Elbirn?

Well then. This changes a lot. Given the aforementioned case on why tris is town, and the fact that I know I'm town, reck almost certainly scumreads two town players. Even if I'm not obvtown, tris is because Flubber and scum in general wouldn't be that suicidal. This means reck is more likely than average to be scum. VOTE: reck

Given Reck's a likely mislynch, this is scum opportunism.

[Succinct]

i really need to get a better feel for what succinct is doing.

Succinctly trying to lynch scum.
Easiest way: iso me. My post count's deliberately low enough to be a manageable read, so it's not hard.

[Ankamius]

I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.

why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?

[xRECKONERx]

So like, thinking about it, if scum could evacuate Flubber vs NMSA, wouldn't they choose NMSA since he had been under pressure literally the entire game?

[Ankamius]

flubber was too, but he had to be evacuated because he HAD to do that IC gambit to survive

[Chara]

but Flubber was nearly lynched, and had to do an emergency claim to avoid it. since he would be lynched as soon as the IC claim proved false, he was the only choice to be evacuated for any scumteam.

pedit: yes.

[Chara]

VOTE: NMSA

[xRECKONERx]

Succinct's "meta" read on me is fucking wild and I feel like he's trying to pocket or whiteknight me but I have nothing to go on other than that one post. So naturally, let's go do the ISO and see what pops up.

- Succinct 2165: Puts Flubbernugget on the bottom of his reads list with Brigitte. Not sure if town or risky scum "bussing" without actually "bussing"
- Succinct 2394: Joins Flubber wagon after Brigitte. Townread on xtoxm/chara.


okay actually imma just stop there because im remembering Enter was Succinct previously and that slot is just town. plus the push on flubber. moving on for now. succinct can get a pass. if it was a bus, it was pretty well done and the chances of me being convinced that it was a bus at this time are very low

[Succinct]

I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.

why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?

They aren't entirely linked.
I've read people's analysis of Flubber's iso + analysis of others' interactions with Flubber.

The entire time I've felt those analyses are off-base; given that, I'd feel it were a mistake even if not for what I said.

Yet, isn't it logical? Scum sent Flubber away. They knew Flubber would be sent away at least on D2. Wouldn't they tailor their actions so Flubber's flip wouldn't point directly to them? That doesn't require a mastermind; it's something they'd do individually: put distance between themselves and Flubber, to not be caught when he's shown scum. (Most scum show strong self-preservation instincts without leadership.)

However, no matter how well-hidden their interactions with Flubber, they can't change the quality of their play.

So hunting off of individual play feels like the route to take.

[xRECKONERx]

okay, good points on NMSA.

Flubbernugget: I don't like much about the slot other than the name, but I'm willing to buy that he's sick and that it's preventing him from playing much. Null.

This is a really gross null read that hand waves having to provide real content on Flub by leaning on out of game stuff.

flubbernugget, not sure, I could see either, more involved interaction will help the read

Another fence sit on Flub later on.

Also of note is that the original NMSA wagon is the only time that all three of them aren't voting different people or unvoted entirely

Based on how scattered all the votes were in general even when there was a concentrated push on 1-2 slots, and considering they all never voted together even at the end of the day 1 wagons, that's indicative to me that there's something here

I believe tris is town and the wagon was mostly town lead (barring skitter, I think the unvote was a mistake if she was scum here)
Succinct wouldn't be scum with this
Neither would Chara
Nor xRECKONERx
Elbirn is probtown

Flubbernugget/Xtoxm/Nimueh > skitter30 > NMSA > Creature

This is roughly where I'm at

I like this, not sure why though

Now Flubber's in the town pile? Conveniently parroting Ank? Makes sense with NMSAscum/Anktown

I've completely lost my will to win this game, it died after the D1 lynch, and now it feels like diving into a pool of molasses just reading the thread. I'm perfectly willing to sheep Ank or skitter or someone if it will just get this game to the end or at least to a point where the game is moving fast than 2 posts a day. If Ank is scum taking advantage to lead town astray, then screw it the scumteam deserves the win because I just don't care enough anymore. VOTE: Flubber, I hope it's not L-1 or a hammer cause I'm sure not checking.

I'm not sure about this. Knowing the Flubber flip it kinda changes how I felt about it at the time. Would NMSA really come in and post an effortless post like this just to bus a scumbuddy?

VOTE: Flubber L-1

wait no VOTE: xtoxm

i think flub is town

Why?

And then questioning my townread on Flubber... someone NMSA agreed was town earlier... after saying he was null?

There's no read progression on Flubber and it's really weird to me. Null, null, now suddenly I agree with Ank that Flubber is town despite giving no reasons... then show up, vote him out of nowhere, and question why Reck is townreading him?

@NMSA: Can you talk me through your read progression on Flub?

[Ankamius]

Noteworthy: I replaced into this game, wasn't here from start. You should check if Enter's mastermind-worthy.

Enter seems like the kind of player that I was like back in like... 2014.

Very unlikely a scum mastermind, but I will note that there was a drastic change in the modus operandi throughout d2 (thanks to activity drastically dropping) and arguably the end of D1 (wagons converging rather than diverging). This isn't really indicative of anything by itself, it needs a lot of supporting arguments to be suggestive in any direction and that's something I don't think is likely enough to be worth pursuing directly.

[Ankamius]

It's more conductive worrying I'm town, scum kill you, then my lack of charisma leads to loss.

THIS is fair

But:

I feel then that looking at Flubber's interactions with others/others' interactions with Flubber is a mistake.
Scum knew they'd be sending someone away, and at least on D2 knew it'd be Flubber.
What we should focus on is individual play.

why does this necessarily follow and/or correlate?

They aren't entirely linked.
I've read people's analysis of Flubber's iso + analysis of others' interactions with Flubber.

The entire time I've felt those analyses are off-base; given that, I'd feel it were a mistake even if not for what I said.

Yet, isn't it logical? Scum sent Flubber away. They knew Flubber would be sent away at least on D2. Wouldn't they tailor their actions so Flubber's flip wouldn't point directly to them? That doesn't require a mastermind; it's something they'd do individually: put distance between themselves and Flubber, to not be caught when he's shown scum. (Most scum show strong self-preservation instincts without leadership.)

However, no matter how well-hidden their interactions with Flubber, they can't change the quality of their play.

So hunting off of individual play feels like the route to take.

THIS is saying that my strongest tool for scumhunting is not going to be useful here.

But what you're suggesting here also requires a few things to be true for your team to work:

1. NMSA thinks that sheeping me throughout d2 is his best odds at surviving, even far enough to be willing to bus Flubber and conftown all but FOUR towns in the process.
2. Elbirn thinks that tearing down my case at the core is his best odds at surviving, and most likely decided that the time he posted his rebuttal to me was the time to do it.
3. NMSA sees that Elbirn gets away with that... and continues hardsheeping.

That's just on day 2 stuff. I haven't gotten to day 1 stuff yet.

I can look into other things on top of that too, but I'm not really sure these mindsets mesh together enough to be likely.

[Ankamius]

You're at the center of a whirlwind of groupthink and a shoddy townbloc and it can kick rocks, homeslice

This is a really good point and is probabaly the source of all of this vague "gamestate lynch" bullshit

this is an interesting exchange

[Elbirn]

no remarks from Elbirn and tris?
we're so close to losing, you people have to limit break. now is the time. HP's in the red. activate your Blaze ability and up that attack power.

Sorry frend I was on my way to sleepyland at the time I made what few comments I did, and I really didnt know what to say regardless. I've never played this style of game before and am unsure how to proceed. Flubber being scum fucking sucks because being wrong fucking sucks. Idk what this means for the rest of my reads yet. I need to not death tunnel Tris but I need to sort her independently of the rest of you because if I'm just sheeping and not really believing in it that's gonna be a problem. I think NMSA is probably not scum and I'll get to that. I think reck is scum? I'm really not sure about the third. Succinct posting is...improving I guess

Ugh.

[Ankamius]

tell me what your thoughts are when you get them together elbirn

[Elbirn]

Okay so my big brain thought re:NMSA is essentially that if this lynchbaity fucker was on the scumteam they'd want to evacuate him before flubber. This means no IC gambit, no flubber evac, team goes all in on lynching xtoxm or another counter wagon and hoping theres enough resistance between idiots like me defending flubber for him to be the D3 evac.

And uh I guess that's it, it sounded like more of a big deal when I was reading earlier but yeah there you go I babbled it did I do good?

[Elbirn]

Also: am kinda scumreading reck. Hes been on NMSA and that makes me hesitate