Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]

[Ankamius]

even with how big my push on him was?

[Elbirn]

tell me what your thoughts are when you get them together elbirn

Can do. I do want to ask, now that you've gotten your two most desired flips (xtoxm/flubber), what have you learned?

even with how big my push on him was?

My reading comprehension is ass, what is this in regards to / who?

[Elbirn]

Oh jesus you're just talking about flubber

Yeah I think a competent scum team powers through xtoxm lynch and hopes the flub push dies with your confidence when xtoxm flips town. Again, there was enough resistance to the wagon and idk, new day new me, er, gamestate

[Ankamius]

tell me what your thoughts are when you get them together elbirn

Can do. I do want to ask, now that you've gotten your two most desired flips (xtoxm/flubber), what have you learned?

that my gamestate read is valid

one of the first things I said when I reached that solve was that flubber was the linchpin of it and him flipping would let me pin down what scum have been trying to do all game

which is funny because that exact type of scumplay is... pretty much expected for this sort of setup in the first place

even with how big my push on him was?

My reading comprehension is ass, what is this in regards to / who?

my push on flubber

it was more effective than my posting and the general reaction to it let on, it would have gotten flubber lynched if not for the IC claim

[Ankamius]

Oh jesus you're just talking about flubber

Yeah I think a competent scum team powers through xtoxm lynch and hopes the flub push dies with your confidence when xtoxm flips town. Again, there was enough resistance to the wagon and idk, new day new me, er, gamestate

how do you think scum handled it, or at least how they approached it

[Elbirn]

My final babbling bullshit thought is that I'm wary of going with the assumption that scum doesn't bus, like basically all of you have said.

"Bus a buddy, vote a townie" is Scum 101. We need to look for otherwise scummy people placing safe votes on flubber when hes not in danger of the lynch actually going through. Theres your distancing.

[Elbirn]

Oh jesus you're just talking about flubber

Yeah I think a competent scum team powers through xtoxm lynch and hopes the flub push dies with your confidence when xtoxm flips town. Again, there was enough resistance to the wagon and idk, new day new me, er, gamestate

how do you think scum handled it, or at least how they approached it

Uhm...hm. I think that depends on whether or not the IC play was planned or a last resort. If the IC fake claim was planned in advance then would it be fair to assume that scum DOESNT have to go all in on xtoxm? If it was a spur of the moment thing done in case the xtoxm wagon wasnt going through... I guess that's your answer, scum is on xtoxm.

[Ankamius]

well that's easy to answer

the IC play happened when Flubber was at L-2 (specifically after I unvoted because I wasn't done yet)

[Ankamius]

xtoxm and tris were at 2 votes when that happened actually

so flubber was the top wagon by far

[Elbirn]

I think I need to fact check myself instead of babbling things that I think with no basis.

[Chara]

i like the babbling, it makes me townread you and that's nice.
and yes, Flubber's IC claim was out of scum's control, i think. i doubt he was planned to go first, but rather a last-ditch hail mary.

[skitter30]

Why would Flubber need to do anything when the wagon on him is already stalled? All he needs to do is not say anything too scummy and he's already set to be released from being today's lynch. The support against the wagons is not going to get higher than it already is without a huge centralized push as it is until it gets too close to deadline. Plus my influence is actually waning over time, and there is the very real threat that if it gets low enough, the wagons will dissipate if for no better reason because I'm trying to lead them.

yeah i was tallying up the votes on friday and was thinking that like .... there really aren't 7 people willing to lynch flubber rn i think and i'm really puzzled as to why that is because there's at best like three people townreading him (for like dubious reasons imo)

like i'm not sure why there's so much resistance here

Votecount 2.5

Flubbernugget(5)

~ Creature(47), Succinct(15), NotMySpamAccount(25), skitter30(110), tris(16)

Xtoxm(2)

~ Chara(66), Nimueh(172)

tris(2)

~ xRECKONERx(25), Elbirn(32)

Chara(1)

~ Flubbernugget(43)

Ankamius(1)

~ Xtoxm(29)


Not Voting (1): Ankamius(219)

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-19 23:56:59).

there weren't 7 votes for flubber when i wrote this

so i think that there's at least one scum in the people offwagon, if not both
(for the purposes of this i'm counting ank as being onwagon because she was willing to switch to flubber; the wagon was really stalled at 6 including her and i didn't think there was another vote)

xtoxm and flubber flipped, so that leaves at least one scum in {chara, nimueh, reck, elbirn}

and i think that the likelihood of them being scum is in the following order: reck >> nimuh > chara >>>> elbirn

elbirn i feel very confident is town
chara is above the null line but them being in this group is making me a little :/
nimueh
and i'm voting reck

[Chara]

what would you say is the difference between Ank being willing to switch to Flubber and me being willing to switch to Flubber?

[skitter30]

i'm in middle of checking the context of you being willing to switch to flubber, give me a couple of min to check; idk rn cuz i don't remember
ank seemed very conscpicuously interested in wagoning and flubber and i remember at least once where i got spooked off of xtoxm and she just switched to voting him to get me to go along with her flubber/xtoxm solve

from what i remember you were more 'i'll switch to flubber if needed' but iirc unlike ank you didn't actually *do* anything to make me think you would have (and you stayed off of him at l-2). like you said it but you didn't do anything to back it up with convinction if that makes sense

but again in middle of checking what you said when because this is all off of memory

[xRECKONERx]

bussing is suicidal since the byproduct of bussing is not just losing a townie, but having to publicly confirm HALF the game

[skitter30]

... i'm not sure what that's a response to

[Chara]

Elbirn, would you mind linking me a recent scumgame?

[Chara]

having been in a situation as scum where actually bussing was suicidal, i'm hesitant to take out every player who was voting Flubber from the lynchpool. for basically the reason Elbirn said, scum doing a safe distance vote that will (they hope) not go through.

[skitter30]

i'm not taking them out of the lynchpool so much as i *strongly* believe that there's scum in the group of people offwagon by virtue of the fact that the lynch on flubber was stalled because of it and want to sort through them first

[Elbirn]

Elbirn, would you mind linking me a recent scumgame?

I can but "recent" is relative when I haven't rolled scum since approximately 1973. Or 2015. They both sound so far away. I think I last played scum in Varsoons space dandy 2 but I'm not sure, I'll try to find it

[Chara]

in this sort of game, scum has to really push things in order to set up for the endgame. and it's also possible to miscalculate and get closer to a lynch than planned.
but there has to have been attempts to make the wagon not get to a lynch, from someone besides Flubber himself.

pedit: i might say there's one on and one off.
but town can stall scum lynches too. with the assumption Elbirn is town, for example.

peditx2: huh, that's quite a while. bad luck, but thank you.

[skitter30]

i mean yes but i would be *shocked* if all 4 of the people in taht group were town and that a flubber lynch couldn't go through with both scum onwagon

[Chara]

i dont' really want a tris wagon today (i think flubber is siginficantly scummier) but i don't get why people (you, chara) are townreading her at all. i don't see it in the slightest

came across this, i don't remember townreading tris this game beyond the one time i mentioned during tris vs. Brigitte that i liked how tris continued to hunt.

[Chara]

i mean yes but i would be *shocked* if all 4 of the people in taht group were town and that a flubber lynch couldn't go through with both scum onwagon

i wouldn't be very shocked. i'm not sure if it's likely right now, though.

[NotMySpamAccount]

okay, good points on NMSA.

Flubbernugget: I don't like much about the slot other than the name, but I'm willing to buy that he's sick and that it's preventing him from playing much. Null.

This is a really gross null read that hand waves having to provide real content on Flub by leaning on out of game stuff.

flubbernugget, not sure, I could see either, more involved interaction will help the read

Another fence sit on Flub later on.

Also of note is that the original NMSA wagon is the only time that all three of them aren't voting different people or unvoted entirely

Based on how scattered all the votes were in general even when there was a concentrated push on 1-2 slots, and considering they all never voted together even at the end of the day 1 wagons, that's indicative to me that there's something here

I believe tris is town and the wagon was mostly town lead (barring skitter, I think the unvote was a mistake if she was scum here)
Succinct wouldn't be scum with this
Neither would Chara
Nor xRECKONERx
Elbirn is probtown

Flubbernugget/Xtoxm/Nimueh > skitter30 > NMSA > Creature

This is roughly where I'm at

I like this, not sure why though

Now Flubber's in the town pile? Conveniently parroting Ank? Makes sense with NMSAscum/Anktown

I've completely lost my will to win this game, it died after the D1 lynch, and now it feels like diving into a pool of molasses just reading the thread. I'm perfectly willing to sheep Ank or skitter or someone if it will just get this game to the end or at least to a point where the game is moving fast than 2 posts a day. If Ank is scum taking advantage to lead town astray, then screw it the scumteam deserves the win because I just don't care enough anymore. VOTE: Flubber, I hope it's not L-1 or a hammer cause I'm sure not checking.

I'm not sure about this. Knowing the Flubber flip it kinda changes how I felt about it at the time. Would NMSA really come in and post an effortless post like this just to bus a scumbuddy?

VOTE: Flubber L-1

wait no VOTE: xtoxm

i think flub is town

Why?

And then questioning my townread on Flubber... someone NMSA agreed was town earlier... after saying he was null?

There's no read progression on Flubber and it's really weird to me. Null, null, now suddenly I agree with Ank that Flubber is town despite giving no reasons... then show up, vote him out of nowhere, and question why Reck is townreading him?

@NMSA: Can you talk me through your read progression on Flub?

Sure. As you guys can probably tell by my crappy play and join date, I'm new and bad at reading people, so I usually start off games with very few strong reads unless someone has been really scummy. I had no clue on flubber for a while because he had barely posted because he was sick. I had a positive gut reaction to Ank's post, and I was fine agreeing since I still had nothing on Flubber at that point. My flubber vote (which would have confirmed five town had he actually been lynched) came at a time when I hated the level of activity and just wanted the game to start moving or end. When you flipped your vote from flubber (who ended up flipping scum, incidentally) to xtoxm (who ended up flipping town, incidentally), I thought it looked odd enough to ask you why. Your response was extremely useful and explanatory, and not at all a passive-aggressive way of avoiding it.

VOTE: Flubber L-1

wait no VOTE: xtoxm

i think flub is town

Why?

ive explained this already im not going to do your work for you

What a nice, effective, pro-town way of answering my question. I can't remember if I did this already, so VOTE: reck.