Mini 2059: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Over]

[Succinct]

THIS is saying that my strongest tool for scumhunting is not going to be useful here.

I know it's your strongest tool.
It's usually one of mine.
But given the setup, unfortunately, it's what I think; lacking a mastermind, scum were going to show high self-preservation, masking interactions with scumbuddies.

1. NMSA thinks that sheeping me throughout d2 is his best odds at surviving, even far enough to be willing to bus Flubber and conftown all but FOUR towns in the process.

This applies to

all

Flubber voters; voting him risked conftowning all but four town. Do you think every Flubber voter was town? I don't.

2. Elbirn thinks that tearing down my case at the core is his best odds at surviving, and most likely decided that the time he posted his rebuttal to me was the time to do it.

Which are you more weary of: someone opposing you, or someone sheeping you? Experience says the latter; Elbirn could know that. I wouldn't expect that knowledge from NMSA, or for it to be shared.

[Nimueh]

nim is kinda reading townier to me now.

still pref brig but would be happy to go tris

id just like a fucking flip at this point tbh

Hmmm . . . Reck is hard to parse. Elbirn is still the better vote today I think but I dunno because I’m still at everyone townier than Elbirn/Reck. *sigh*

[Nimueh]

THIS is saying that my strongest tool for scumhunting is not going to be useful here.

I know it's your strongest tool.
It's usually one of mine.
But given the setup, unfortunately, it's what I think; lacking a mastermind, scum were going to show high self-preservation, masking interactions with scumbuddies.

1. NMSA thinks that sheeping me throughout d2 is his best odds at surviving, even far enough to be willing to bus Flubber and conftown all but FOUR towns in the process.

This applies to

all

Flubber voters; voting him risked conftowning all but four town. Do you think every Flubber voter was town? I don't.

2. Elbirn thinks that tearing down my case at the core is his best odds at surviving, and most likely decided that the time he posted his rebuttal to me was the time to do it.

Which are you more weary of: someone opposing you, or someone sheeping you? Experience says the latter; Elbirn could know that. I wouldn't expect that knowledge from NMSA, or for it to be shared.

My head is hurting that I can’t figure this out but Elbirn is currently my strongest sr. That post, where he is setting me up to be sr later is pretty much a scum claim now, that I caught him in a lie. Since scum can’t do a full bus here. we know scum won’t be staying on their buddies until past midwagon.

[Succinct]

Who besides Nimueh was/is townreading creature?

I am.
It'd be lying to say townread's same strength, but experience tells me

not

to let paranoia dictate my read there, to trust my townread.

[Nimueh]

I am realizing I have zero read on Nimueh and that ISO is intimidating to even start to jump into.

NMSA is a mixed bag for me, but the wild random vote on Flubber is sticking out to me as a reason to show hesitance on a scumread.
Chara is town.
Succinct is town.

Something keeps bugging me about Ank. I don't know what it is. Every logical bone in my body says she should be town but I keep getting premonition flashes of "this is the mastermind that pulled this whole thing off" and it eats away at me. I think Ank's continued reprisal of "omg this is so outside my scum range" is what's really bugging me. I hate self meta, especially when it is repeated over and over as a way to clear yourself as town.

I read skitter as town earlier. That has kinda faded. Esp since skitter's biggest read on Flubber was "gut-town" which is a very comfortable place to put a scumbuddy in your reads list. Flubber "moved" between null and back up to town. That sticks out as weird early movement for me. skitter calling out the resistance to the wagon yesterday has me thinking townier, and then the "i forgot flubber was in the game and would vote him" comment looks town too. I dunno, there's an outside chance skitter is playing a masterful scum game but those two comments seem natural enough to me.

Also just to defend myself: Flubber did the EXACT same thing to me that I did to him (voted, then turned around and said "wait no" and quickly unvoted). That is just so bizarre to me that people could read those interactions as SvS. It's just wild to me. He went out of his way to avoid me after that, I think because I was the loudest person calling him town, so why not just ride the idiot townie who is screaming to the game how town you are?

anyway, my overall reads list probably looks something like this, gun to my head

TOWN
Succinct
Chara
---gap---
tris
skitter
Ank
---gap---
NotMySpamAccount
Creature
---gap---
Elbirn
Nimueh
SCUM

elbirn/nim are kinda there by virtue of me having no read on them yet and having like at least some reason to argue everyone else on that list could be town (which is better than 0 reasons)

Now here’s the thing, hypothetically, scum!Reck could presumably both push my mislynch and have scum!Elbirn escape. That’s the critical thing people need to remember about this setup. Scum can still distance their buddies, they just can’t either do a full bus/risk them getting bussed. So, scum can have their partner low on their list but not right at the bottom, because of the whole escape thing. Everything changed D3 wrt to how we normally view SvS interactions. We can’t forget how this mechanic totally changes that.

[Succinct]

add reck and take me out and I'm with you 100%. Also I think Elbirn is right here, and it goes with my current gut read so VOTE: Nimueh

The opportunism's unreal, here.
When people suspected Reck, he voted Reck.
When people chased after a "scumslip", he votes Nimueh. In spite of what he said earlier

that page

:

I see only two general possibilities. Scumteam is flubber/reck/(Elbirn or an inactive), or it's flubber/Ank/irrelevant cause the IC claim was planned and Ank really is the mastermind we haven't been looking for and this post was distancing to help conftown Ank and town has no chance. Obviously the second is a long shot, but it's possible. Discuss.

I admit I could be wrong on Elbirn, but I'm

not

wrong on NMSA.

[Nimueh]

VOTE: Flubber L-1

wait no VOTE: xtoxm

i think flub is town

These posts were literally seconds apart.

[Nimueh]

add reck and take me out and I'm with you 100%. Also I think Elbirn is right here, and it goes with my current gut read so VOTE: Nimueh

The opportunism's unreal, here.
When people suspected Reck, he voted Reck.
When people chased after a "scumslip", he votes Nimueh. In spite of what he said earlier

that page

:

I see only two general possibilities. Scumteam is flubber/reck/(Elbirn or an inactive), or it's flubber/Ank/irrelevant cause the IC claim was planned and Ank really is the mastermind we haven't been looking for and this post was distancing to help conftown Ank and town has no chance. Obviously the second is a long shot, but it's possible. Discuss.

I admit I could be wrong on Elbirn, but I'm

not

wrong on NMSA.

Well, I was surprised he hasn’t unvoted me yet but I don’t buy that town!Elbirn lies about townlocking me and then digs his heels in about something so obviously NAI, especially now. that I’ve explained it ad nauseum.

I dunno, I’m not confident on Reck scum, so \_0_/

But I’m really gald you posted. I thought I might be losing my mind that anyone was seriously sr me for logically inferencing that NAI post.

Here’s the thing, scum is setting up one of their teammates to escape tonight and I think it’s ideal if we lynch whichever one that is first. But no freaking way Elbirn ever flips town here. Lynch all Liars and I’ve already proven he lied about townlocking me, when the obvious scummy reality, is that he was planting the seeds for a mislynch later on.

Doubting NMSA again, could I actually have been pocketed?

[xRECKONERx]

3150 was made at 12:50 pm.

So NMSA actually voted for Xtoxm twice but since the second vote was post-hammerUNVOTE: , it wouldn’t get counted, approximately 7 hours before Xtoxm self-hammered.

So, Reck can probably only be scum with Elbirn and Skitter probably only with NMSA, so gun to head, I think scum is Flubber/NMSA/Skitter.

I think NMSA “hammered” because he knew his vote wouldn’t be counted post-hammer and that no one would notice but thankfully Tris caught that.

So rn, I want to vote for one of them I think.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: NMSA

i am trying to follow this. what.

[xRECKONERx]

god i have no energy to read 5 pages of nim spamposting drama

[xRECKONERx]

Scumteam has to be Elbirn/Reck. I think it’s Flubber/Elbirn/Reck and I’ve solved the game. If I’m right, I want bragging rights.

again, ill ask: what part of me/flub interacting makes sense SvS

[xRECKONERx]

i thought NMSA was clear because he almost hammered flub

is that not the case anymore

i really thought i had the brainpower for this tonight. gonna go eat enchiladas instead. ill check back in after a few margaritas and pray to whatever god is out there that someone besides nim is posting

[xRECKONERx]

fwiw, i think nim is town. i just can't with the spamposting and hyperantics

[Elbirn]

You were literally locktown until you scumslipped

And then I did in fact reconsider my read
I am sorting you
You're just scum.

3010

I'm fine writing you off as town for the time being but should we wind up in a scenario where I think you might be mafia can we just...be cool? We can just have back and forth discussions and not flame war arguments. I'm here 2 b chill ~Elbirn

I just caught you in a lie. This is the only post you gave me anything close to a tr is this post and it was nowhere close to anything resembling obvtown. Why do you ask me if I’m cool with being sr? That reads not like the “locktown” read you’re falsely claiming but like you were already setting me up for a mislynch back in 3010. So why did you lie about the “townlock” read?

You're actually being literally ridiculous and for the sake of my mental and emotional health I'm not talking to you anymore.

[tris]

Due to PoE, I am thinking Elbirn is mafia. I don't really townread him anymore. I'm also back to townreading nimueh.

VOTE: Elbirn

Pedit: I would like a response to that argument.

[tris]

idc

I feel like I'm the first NK for most scumteams here anyways so I'm just going to assume every day is my last

I think this setup is mountainous right? So no tprs in this game. If you are, it would likely mean that your reads are probably on the right track.

Yeah, I thought it was, because Mod was the captain and sample role pm, was a crewman, just like Brigitte and Xtoxm flip.

And same as my own as well.

What, and you can't imagine "First Mate" as flavor? bs

Did you read that post? Did you see any “first mate” mentioned anywhere? No, all you saw was nsg Captain and crewmates. Nice WIFOM though.

Is a first mate not part of the crew? Funny, I almost make the mistake of thinking "crewmen" applied to everyone on the crew, including the Secret Agents we know exist.

I guess I should have thought of that but I didn’t think beyond Brigitte flip, my role pm and that nsg post.

I actually think it might be Elbirn. I don’t like how he made such a big deal about that post and never even thought about reconsidering his read on me and then he accuses me of making it “personal”, which was clearly bs.

VOTE: Elbirn

His posts with Flubber weirdly chummy but then who his his partner? Who makes sense with Flubber/Elbirn scum, do you think?

Maybe Reck or someone I’m just wrongly tr?

Yeah Elbirn probably at least one scum. I feel pretty good about that vote actually. I think Skitter is finally starting to read me. Never Creature/Ank and Succinct by virtue of hardtown Enter read, so I’m townlocking those three. But if we lynch Elbirn scum today, maybe we get some helpful associatives. Hopefully. All I know is if we mislynch, another scum might escape and we absolutely cannot let that happen, so it’s super critical that we correctly lynch today.

If we lynch scum today, we just win.

[Nimueh]

i thought NMSA was clear because he almost hammered flub

is that not the case anymore

i really thought i had the brainpower for this tonight. gonna go eat enchiladas instead. ill check back in after a few margaritas and pray to whatever god is out there that someone besides nim is posting

Hi, you’re obviously not caught up. No, Tris caught that post. The reality is that NMSA had originally switched from Flubber to Xtoxm, approximately 7 hours earlier.

But after Xtoxm had already self-hammered, he then fake hammered after that, so he essentially voted Xtoxm twice but it obviously wasn’t counted. I too townlocked him for this but it was not the case that he only jumped off of Flubber after Xtoxm self-hammer.

[tris]

I still think NMSA is town because of Day 1.

[skitter30]

You were literally locktown until you scumslipped
And then I did in fact reconsider my read
I am sorting you
You're just scum.

Please lynch this. No way in hell does this kind of post ever come from town.

Just tell us who’s your partner? Is it Reck or someone else?

elbirn's town

[Nimueh]

i thought NMSA was clear because he almost hammered flub

is that not the case anymore

i really thought i had the brainpower for this tonight. gonna go eat enchiladas instead. ill check back in after a few margaritas and pray to whatever god is out there that someone besides nim is posting

Spoiler:

I'm gonna goahead and agree with Ank that town cohesion is done for. I'm crazy suspicious of the flubber claim, but I'm willing to lynch xtoxm just to see. VOTE: xtoxm If we can't get a lynch within irl today or tomorrow there's no way town has a chance bc we'll never agree enough on anything.

I'm moving to Xtoxm if it gains another vote.

Ok. It's a lynch I like anyway. VOTE: xtoxm

Okay, whatever

VOTE: Xtoxm

oh ok

VOTE: xtoxm

crap did I just hammer without claim?

Oh wait, Tris is right here. NMSA isn’t cleared by this then.

3150 was made at 12:50 pm.

So, he voted twice for Xtoxm, once at 12:50 pm and the second was the faux hammer.

[skitter30]

Who besides Nimueh was/is townreading creature?

I am.
It'd be lying to say townread's same strength, but experience tells me

not

to let paranoia dictate my read there, to trust my townread.

i don't see it

[skitter30]

Scumteam has to be Elbirn/Reck. I think it’s Flubber/Elbirn/Reck and I’ve solved the game. If I’m right, I want bragging rights.

again, ill ask: what part of me/flub interacting makes sense SvS

uh the fact that you badly townread him the whole time he was alive and refused to vote him

[Nimueh]

i thought NMSA was clear because he almost hammered flub

is that not the case anymore

i really thought i had the brainpower for this tonight. gonna go eat enchiladas instead. ill check back in after a few margaritas and pray to whatever god is out there that someone besides nim is posting

Btw, I think you’re town for this. I think scum!you would have already likely known that this had been proven to be false.

[skitter30]

Due to PoE, I am thinking Elbirn is mafia. I don't really townread him anymore. I'm also back to townreading nimueh.

VOTE: Elbirn

Pedit: I would like a response to that argument.

he's like my second-most confident townread

[Nimueh]

I still think NMSA is town because of Day 1.

You were literally locktown until you scumslipped
And then I did in fact reconsider my read
I am sorting you
You're just scum.

Please lynch this. No way in hell does this kind of post ever come from town.

Just tell us who’s your partner? Is it Reck or someone else?

elbirn's town

Unless you both think scum has two deep wolves, at least one of you has to be wrong here.