Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[ejjinami]

Vote Count 4.4

Chennisden:

(3) Vedith, scum reading, Auro

Shoshin:

(2) Alonzo, DoubtingThomas

Vedith:

(1) Shoshin

Not Voting:

volxen, chennisden

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-30 06:58:50)

[volxen]

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

[Alonzo]

Can you do a town to scum ranking plz volx

[chennisden]

Hi; why am I self-voting?

[chennisden]

also UNVOTE: because I don't want to self lynch

[chennisden]

VOTE: Vedith ballsy of you to self-nom when you think nobodys paying attention

[chennisden]

holy butt

would I as scum self-nom? no way

and if I was dumb enough to self-nom I'd self nom with a scumbuddy to get them towncred

who needs towncred? sure seems vedith!

reason why shoshin isn't the scum; she ain't trying to kill town rn!

[Alonzo]

Give reads.

[volxen]

Can you do a town to scum ranking plz volx

I don't have everyone ranked as such yet. I'm currently rereading through the game to better sort everyone. The only thing I feel 100% confident about at the moment is that you are locktown.

Speaking of which @Shoshin, what's the point of throwing shade at Alonzo? You've been one of the strongest advocates of Alonzo being 100% locktown via it making no sense for scum!RC to replace out in the manner that he did after getting GrandWazoo lynched.

I don't understand why town!Shoshin would start entertaining the possibility of scum!Alonzo. It's not productive; the productive thing to do is to try to convince Alonzo that she is town, because town!Shoshin should recognize that Alonzo is wrong town rather than scum.

[Shoshin]

Are you questioning whether I'm town, Volx?

[volxen]

Are you questioning whether I'm town, Volx?

I'm not completely sold on you being town. Can you explain why you would backtrack on your previous locktown!Alonzo read?

[volxen]

holy butt

would I as scum self-nom? no way

and if I was dumb enough to self-nom I'd self nom with a scumbuddy to get them towncred

who needs towncred? sure seems vedith!

reason why shoshin isn't the scum; she ain't trying to kill town rn!

From a purely objective standpoint, why is it more risky for scum!you to self-nominate compared to scum!Vedith? I would argue that both of you have taken quite a bit of a heat in this game, and it would be risky for either of you to self-nominate yourselves, especially against Shoshin.

If Shoshin is town and one of you or Vedith is scum, then this nomination list is a pure WIFOM play. The optimal play here would be for whichever one of you is scum to try and get Shoshin nightkilled via paranoia about her slot, especially in light of the Fuscosco mislynch. But if that fails, then you and Vedith get into a 1vs1, and I think it would be hard for either of you to be able to predict with reasonable confidence that you would win that 1vs1.

So objectively it's a big risk play for either of scum!you or scum!Vedith.

[volxen]

By the way @Shoshin, are you still maintaining that DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden is the most likely scumteam? Because this nomination list almost certainly proves that that is not the case. Aside from the unlikelihood of there being two scum nominees, DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Auro is also strongly opposed to bussing, so that would rule out an Auro/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam as well.

Which means that if you are town, you are wrong on at least one of your previous locktown!Auro and/or locktown!Scumreading reads.

[volxen]

@Shoshin, Who are you more confident on being town, Auro or Scumreading?

[ejjinami]

Hi; why am I self-voting?

fixed, sorry

[ejjinami]

Vote Count 4.5

Chennisden:

(3) Vedith, scum reading, Auro

Shoshin:

(2) Alonzo, DoubtingThomas

Vedith:

(2) Shoshin, chennisden

Not Voting:

volxen

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-30 06:58:50)

[Auro]

DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?

[Auro]

holy butt

would I as scum self-nom? no way

and if I was dumb enough to self-nom I'd self nom with a scumbuddy to get them towncred

who needs towncred? sure seems vedith!

reason why shoshin isn't the scum; she ain't trying to kill town rn!

Don't like this post.
What do you mean, she ain't trying to kill town rn? Because she said "let's lynch Vedith"?

[Auro]

I'm not sold on the perspective slips from SR in a vacuum, feels like he's not expressing him clearly; I have ~reasons to believe this can come from town!him.

[Auro]

Volxen, what's your independent read on me ATM?

[volxen]

DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?

There's a difference between bussing when it's absolutely necessary vs going out of your way to bus just for the sake of bussing for perceived towncredit. Scum!Chennisden AND scum!Vedith nominating themselves against town!Shoshin is almost always going to lead to a red flip today, unless they could produce enough WIFOM to generate enough paranoia about Shoshin to get her lynched. Some people would employ this kind strategy as scum, but I have no reason to believe that someone who is opposed to bussing on a fundamental level (such as DoubtingThomas) would do so.

You've also shared with me that you are fundamentally opposed to bussing unless absolutely necessary, and Irrelephant is known for that as well. So it's clearly a "thing" for some people to avoid bussing at all costs.

Like Shoshin mentioned earlier, it's important to focus on what's probable vs what's possible, because anything is technically "possible". I think a DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden scumteam is so unlikely that it's not even worth considering at this point.

[volxen]

DoubtingThomas is strongly opposed to bussing and would be opposed to a strategy along the lines of "let's nominate two of us and have one bus the other for towncredit". I believe that he would strongly object to a nomination list that is highly likely to lead to a red flip.

Just because one's generally opposed to bussing, it doesn't mean they'd refuse to bus when it makes for optimal play given the gamestate.
As scum I've lynched my teammate before (Newbie 1898).
Besides, in the world where both are scum, do you agree that their best agenda for today would be to push Shoshin?

Obviously if Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together, then yes, their plan A for today should be to try and get Shoshin nightkilled. If that fails, then plan B is for one to bus the other, in hopes that whichever one that survives gets townlocked.

I think that there is a very small chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both scum together. But here is how I am looking at that:

1) I know that I am town.
2) I have Alonzo as locktown.
3) I don't believe the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Chennisden because of your fundamental opposition to bussing.
4) I don't believe the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Chennisden because of DT's fundamental opposition to bussing.
5) I don't believe the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Chennisden because I don't believe that all three nominees are scum.
6) Therefore, the only way that I see Vedith and Chennisden both being scum together is if the scumteam is exactly Scumreading/Vedith/Chennisden.

I think it's highly likely that there is one scum nominee and two town nominees.

[Vedith]

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

Not only have I answered this for others and yesterday several times I've also said that I'm not directly Scum reading you.
I made it clear that you had the highest chance to flip Scum 2 days ago, I never mentioned you yesterday and today I am saying Chen and Scum reading are Scum.

I have said Alonzo, DT and Auro are town.
So that leaves you and Shoshin

[volxen]

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

Not only have I answered this for others and yesterday several times I've also said that I'm not directly Scum reading you.
I made it clear that you had the highest chance to flip Scum 2 days ago, I never mentioned you yesterday and today I am saying Chen and Scum reading are Scum.

I have said Alonzo, DT and Auro are town.
So that leaves you and Shoshin

And I made it clear that I had in fact the lowest chance to flip scum on day two because I had the most risk in self-nominating, but I believe you haven't read any of my "wallposts". So it's strictly a POE solve then. Town!Alonzo is a given, but can you explain why DoubtingThomas and Auro are two of your most confident townreads?

[Vedith]

And I made it clear that I had in fact the lowest chance to flip scum on day two because I had the most risk in self-nominating, but I believe you haven't read any of my "wallposts". So it's strictly a POE solve then. Town!Alonzo is a given, but can you explain why DoubtingThomas and Auro are two of your most confident townreads?

Okay, it didn't change my mind though.
Auro and DT from gut.