Mini 2065 - Access Point [Endgame]

[insomnia]

It's just searching for the needle in the haystack, when we can focus on town reading rather than scum reading. Townies are the majority, scum are the minority. Point is you send town on missions, not scum, so there's no reason to scum hunt. Just town hunt. Right now, me, NSG and RC would be a great AP, except it's probably never going to happen.

[DrDolittle]

To be completely honestly we should play the game and solve normally, especially on day 1. If we can reach a consensus (I feel like Im beating a dead horse here), I'll be far more confortable. And we dont need to breach this unsavory topic of policy-copping strong players

[insomnia]

I'm just sad nobody sees this as a viable plan. Well, I guess I'll have to go with the majority.

[insomnia]

You aren't aware of the fact that strong players are strong as either alignment. You automatically assume RC is town, how's it hurting us if we confirm it?

Whatever, I'll drop it.

[DrDolittle]

i understand this completely. what i'm saying is that i am town if rc flips town and i am town if rc does not flip town. shooting rc might make some people more comfortable with the idea that i'm town, but i don't think it should be necessary.

that's rife with conf bias. you can say you are town but we don't know it?

It's not confirmation bias to state something which I know to be factually correct.

Yes, it's true that nobody

knows

that I'm town, just the same for anyone else. That's true anywhere in mafia? Like, consider this: are you saying that suddenly people will

know

that I'm town if RC is town? If the answer is yes, then what I have to tell you is that it isn't by some secret technique that RC can read me – i fully believe that anyone who looks at my scum games could come to the same conclusion, even if, say, they only looked at the literal numbers of how much i posted. If the answer is no, then we're in the same position as when we started, and for what gained?

i don't get that feeling. maybe that's just me, though.

actually I don't think I played a town game with you so I'm just going along with what other people say

you've played a scumgame with me, though. any thoughts on that? i know you already said once that i'm posting here more than i have there (while i'm on v/la right now.. hmm...)

No but the odds are better. Just a quick numeric example. If I'm only 60 percent sure that you are town, and completely null on RC. But RC has a 99 percent certainty that you are town and he reads you well. Then my percentage would be boosted to high 90 percent with an RC flip.

Let me get this in plain words: are you using the creature defense to try to convince me: it's obvious my scum game is pretty weak. im playing strong handed right now so you should be convinced I am town. (yes no suffices)

[insomnia]

Well, if NSG and RC end up scum, then it will stroke my ego, so I'm fine with this vote either way. If I can't get people to see my side of things, I shouldn't bother.

VOTE: NSG

[DrDolittle]

how about you vote me instead insomnia

[DrDolittle]

or at least give a list of consensus reads.

[insomnia]

Why?

[northsidegal]

You aren't aware of the fact that strong players are strong as either alignment.

haha, if anyone considers me a strong town player that i think i'm living disproof of that point

No but the odds are better. Just a quick numeric example. If I'm only 60 percent sure that you are town, and completely null on RC. But RC has a 99 percent certainty that you are town and he reads you well. Then my percentage would be boosted to high 90 percent with an RC flip.

i agree with this in principle. (not sure about the exact math)

for me mathdino will always be the source of this kind of argument and his original point there was that the odds of that kind of interaction happening with scumbuddies was low enough to warrant a townread on the original player regardless of the flip of the second one, but i can understand your trepidation i suppose.

Let me get this in plain words: are you using the creature defense to try to convince me: it's obvious my scum game is pretty weak. im playing strong handed right now so you should be convinced I am town. (yes no suffices)

i think it's one of multiple reasons that i've shown myself to be town this game. it's not the only reason, and certainly not the largest reason.

[DrDolittle]

i need to sleep on this nsg but our interaction here I think pushes me to more townreading you this game.

[insomnia]

Listen, I've explained my pov. I don't get why we'd town read people in this setup based on their posts, scum can easily fake town posts. I don't get why we don't take advantage of the mechanics we are provided. It's like receiving a huge box that contains your favorite thing that you've ever wanted as a gift, yet you're not interested to see what's inside because you like the wrap.

I'm tired and bad with metaphors.

[DrDolittle]

can you give me a one liner of the largest reason i should be townreading you

[insomnia]

Me?

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't get why we'd town read people in this setup based on their posts, scum can easily fake town posts. I

Why play mafia?

[insomnia]

Because I can.

[northsidegal]

people have been waiting for my reads so here they are, roughly

{nsg, GL, tgp}
{DDL, ruirui, RC}
{RCE}
{BRVR}
{DT, roster, insomnia, labrat}

Keep in mind that my reads may shift a lot given being able to look at people's play on later days. These reads aren't ordered.

Pretty much only gonna elaborate on townreads.



DDL – I've wavered a bit on my DDL read but I think I feel pretty good about it. As I've said before, I've liked his real-time interaction with the thread this game, which as far as I can tell is pretty much his entire ISO. I lean towards that as scum he would be making fewer, larger, more crafted posts that responded to a lot of things at once. I think that that's many people's idea of "how to be townread", although I can't speak for DDL personally.

I also think that scum probably has some plan for how they want to play this if I'm being sent today, and I think that unless he is scum with the lowest posters in the game (BRVR, Labrat, Locke), their plan is probably not "DDL self-votes and asks people to vote him as well"? I've misread this in the last FakeGod game like this where Davesaz as scum kind of just self-voted like that and I townread it, but yeah.

---

RuiRui– I think RuiRui has just been playing pro-town enough to warrant being townread. Like, there's always the argument that in a setup like this there'll be scum who just play very pro-town in order to get selected themselves, but at a certain point i think you have to just look past that and say that if someone is playing like that then it makes them town.

I think these posts are probably genuine:

Spoiler:

What if scum shoot who we access point every night?

They can still be nightkilled

nevermind, I'm wrong

I think this post shows reasonable doubt that might not be there if RuiRui were scum (to argue against myself for a moment, however, RuiRui did townread RC earlier in a slight contradiction to this):

My support for your plan is reliant on you not pushing for yourself to be in the final 3

Finally, I think these posts are just fairly town motivated, especially for a situation in which it appeared that i was just going to be sent fairly quickly. I would imagine that scum might care more about projecting towniness in order to ensure being selected the next day.

Spoiler:

I have other townreads I'd like to discuss tomorrow

I'm kind of impatient with not talking about reads even though I said not to do it earlier

---

RC – Gonna be fairly concise here. I think RC would hold no sentiments about playing directly to win if he were scum here. I recognize that my replace in, if he were scum, would certainly shift whatever plan he already would have had to win – I also think that he would probably still townread me here if he were scum (although it's been a long time since that situation has popped up).

That being said.
I think that his desire to avoid being sent to AP along with me most likely comes from town.
I think that his response to insomnia is most likely a town one.

Don't currently believe that he's scum.

[northsidegal]

i do want GL to get a chance to post before day ends

[RadiantCowbells]

I have a lot I still want to say.

[insomnia]

I have a lot I still want to say.

Go ahead.

[RadiantCowbells]

Right now, me, NSG and RC would be a great AP, except it's probably never going to happen.

Just a quick toss in b/c I have other priorities today

How is you and two of your scumreads a good AP

[insomnia]

I’m a mafia god, what can I say, you said it

[insomnia]

Jokes aside though, NSG discussing my plan and willing to tell me why my plan is not deemed good + other people calling it trash I’ve seen how people feel about it. In my mind this plan makes perfect sense and has no margin of error, but people look at losing a strong town that has already put 2 of his trs in AP as a bad move. Which I completely disagree with. I’ve explained why in my ISO, if you looked into it and try to understand it without having a preconceived image of me being scum, you’d see the progression.

I do believe your AtE makes you look 500 times worse. You can’t have an intelectual conversation and try to see the other person’s point of view, you just threaten to replace out when someone pokes a hole in your case or questions your alignment.

I’ll kick it back to you though...If you get triggered and want to avoid anyone that doubts you regardless of your role...”Why play mafia”

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't think being treated like shit should arbitrarily be part of my mafia experience. No other player on this site would have people trying to dayvig them in my position. You can't complain about my ateing given that you know my one trigger and went out of your way to instigate me. At no point have you put forward a reason that I'm scum besides my aptitude as scum. I don't think it's hard to put yourself in my point of view and realize how unpleasant it is to be scumread regardless of what I do, to be the most valuable townie in almost all of the games you play and to still get scumread. And you know all this and have chosen to pursue this line of play anyway which, well, I understand playing to your wincondition but don't take the moral high ground about it.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't even like playing scum...