Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Vedith]

I changed my mind and think Chen is town.

[Auro]

Elaborate?

[Vedith]

Not much to say other than I think Chen might be town.

[Auro]

Volxen, DT is probscum to me from two primary perspectives.

1. PoE: I have you as town from your analysis (if you're scum, you've suddenly expanded a lot on your scumrange; and there's another towntell I won't reveal atm). Shoshin is town for a host of reasons - if she's scum she's wayyyy outside her personal scumrange and I doubt that's the case. Alonzo's town. Leaves a pool of {DT, SR, Vedith, Chennisden} and I've started to feel Vedith town this gameday.
2. Agenda-driven play: I feel the nominations were explicitly to Target Shoshin and get her out of the game; and DT's transparently crusading against Shoshin.
3. Convenient play: Feel like DT settled on a Shoshin tunnel from early game and doesn't seem like he's doing much else. To be fair, though, Shoshin is a power player who manages to control lynches from BoP and players like RC/Shoshin influence the gamestate making it slightly harder to push elsewhere for other slots; regardless I think my point still holds validity.

Volx, comments on this? Where do we disagree logic-wise?

[ejjinami]

Vote Count 4.9

Chennisden:

(4) scum reading, Auro, Alonzo, Shoshin

Shoshin:

(1) DoubtingThomas

Vedith:

(1) chennisden

Not Voting:

volxen, Vedith

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-30 06:58:50)

[volxen]

Volxen, of course a green flip would cause me to re-evaluate Vedith. A green flip would indicate that I'll have to re-evaluate other reads, too, but I'm not really looking into that possibility right now. I'm not strongly townreading Vedith, for the record - I felt his slot was scummy right until the last few pages. Is there any particular reas you're asking me about the hypothetical post-greenflip?

I was part of the consensus saying the nomination list isn't all-town.

Yes, there is a particular reason why I asked. Because if you had said that Vedith was a strong townread and that he would continue to be one even if Chennisden flipped green, you would be implying that at least one of {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo} is scum, and it would be suspicious in and of itself if you had Vedith as a top-tier townread alongside the three of us. The point being that if you are confident on town!Volxen, town!Shoshin, and town!Alonzo, then if Chennisden flips green that would imply that the scumteam should be exactly DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Scumreading from your point of view.

You have {Volxen, Shoshin, and Alonzo} as your three strongest townreads. I've come around on Shoshin and I believe she is most likely town at this point. I have had Alonzo as locktown ever since he replaced in. So with all of that in mind, in a world where Shoshin is town, Alonzo is town, and you are scum, there are two specific mislynches that you need without having to 1) bus or 2) turn against one of {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo}. As Shoshin puts it, there are two specific mislynches that you would need in order to follow the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory. They are as follows:

If the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Scumreading, the two mislynches needed would be {Chennisden, DoubtingThomas}.
If the scumteam is Auro/Chennisden/Scumreading, the two mislynches needed would be {Vedith, DoubtingThomas}.
If the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/DoubtingThomas, the two mislynches needed would be {Chennisden, Scumreading}.
If the scumteam is Auro/Chennisden/DoubtingThomas, the two mislynches needed would be {Vedith, Scumreading}.
If the scumteam is Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, the two mislynches needed would be {Chennisden, Vedith}.

Any of those first four scumteam combinations presents a problem for scum!Auro, because the consensus at this point is that this nomination list is not all-town, and Shoshin is mostly townread, which implies that at least one of {Chennisden, Vedith} is scum. So for example if the scumteam is Auro/Vedith/Scumreading, and if we lynch Chennisden today and he flips green, it would be highly suspect if you wanted to lynch someone other than Vedith on day five. You most likely would not succeed in this as the consensus at this point is that this nomination list is not all-town. And so on and so forth for all of the first four scumteam combinations.

On the other hand, if the scumteam is exactly Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, then you have set a brilliant plan into motion. This would mean that the nomination list on both days was all-town, the difference being that the day two nomination list consisted of three towny players (you knew that I would come around even though I didn't do much on day one), and the day four nomination list consists of one towny player and two sketchy players. The assumption being that after what happened on day two, scum would never nominate three townies

AGAIN

on day four due to the risk of too many townies becoming confirmed town. So we would mislynch one of {Chennisden, Vedith} today and the other tomorrow. It's a great plan because it would allow scum!you to have a 100% guaranteed town flip on both day two and on day four by having all-town nomination lists on both days, and then through "scum would never do two back-to-back all-town nomination lists" WIFOM you can push {Chennisden, Vedith} as your two mislynches without having to turn against any of {Volxen, Shoshin, Alonzo}.

So I don't that it's likely that you are scum with either of Vedith or Chennisden, because you have really locked yourself in by having Shoshin, Alonzo, and I as your three strongest townreads. It would be hard for you to believably reverse your stance on any of us, especially me considering our history together and the fact that you have repeatedly declaring me "probtown" in this game. So you are either scum with DoubtingThomas and Scumreading and you have come up with this elaborate plan of having two back-to-back all-town nomination lists to mislynch Chennisden and Vedith specifically, or you are just town. I think you being town is more probable at this point.

[ejjinami]

Scum reading has been prodded.

[DoubtingThomas]

well nothing's happening. i might hammer, tbh

[DoubtingThomas]

intent to hammer in a few hours. i am gonna go study and come back. if you object and are not shoshin and wants to talk to me, @ me in bold so i can get back to you

[volxen]

I think I'd just prefer to be lynched and not deal with the players in this game.
Then you can sheep my reads.

How can this possibly make sense from your POV if you are town, unless you believe that this nomination list is in fact all-town? There is no reason to sacrifice yourself as town here unless you are fully convinced that this nomination list is all town, and the consensus is that this nomination list is not all-town. All you've said is that you think Chennisden is now town for unexplained reasons, despite him previously being one of your most confident scumreads:

@Vedith, why do you think that I am scum? You’ve been talking about me being scum since day 2 and I’ve yet to see you put forth any sort of logical argument as to why you think that I’m scum. I think I was fairly towny on day 2, and beyond that I’ve explained numerous times why I was by far the most at risk at self-nominating compared to either of Shoshin or Irrelephant. You don’t even seem to read any of my posts and you keep talking as though me being scum is a foregone conclusion from your point of view. I would at least like to know why that is, because if you are town you seem to have zero interest in actually sorting my slot.

Not only have I answered this for others and yesterday several times I've also said that I'm not directly Scum reading you.
I made it clear that you had the highest chance to flip Scum 2 days ago, I never mentioned you yesterday and today I am saying Chen and Scum reading are Scum.

I have said Alonzo, DT and Auro are town.
So that leaves you and Shoshin

And I made it clear that I had in fact the lowest chance to flip scum on day two because I had the most risk in self-nominating, but I believe you haven't read any of my "wallposts". So it's strictly a POE solve then. Town!Alonzo is a given, but can you explain why DoubtingThomas and Auro are two of your most confident townreads?

Okay, it didn't change my mind though.
Auro and DT from gut.

I changed my mind and think Chen is town.

Not much to say other than I think Chen might be town.

So by your own POE you previously stated that the scumteam was three out of {Volxen, Shoshin, Scumreading, Chennisden}, with Scumreading and Chennisden being your most confident scumreads. Now you are suggesting that Chennisden is town, and you are indirectly implying that you think Shoshin is town as well if you want to take the lynch, because it would be illogical for town!you to sacrifice yourself if you had doubts about Shoshin being town. With your previous townreads of {DoubtingThomas, Auro, Alonzo} and your apparent new townreads of {Chennisden, Shoshin}, this would only leave {Volxen, Scumreading} in your scumpool, which is not even enough for a full scumteam. And out of us two, you have only given reasons for directly scumreading Scumreading; I have only ever been a POE scumread for you from your own admission.

You are making absolutely no sense here Vedith if you are somehow town.

[volxen]

Volxen, DT is probscum to me from two primary perspectives.

1. PoE: I have you as town from your analysis (if you're scum, you've suddenly expanded a lot on your scumrange; and there's another towntell I won't reveal atm). Shoshin is town for a host of reasons - if she's scum she's wayyyy outside her personal scumrange and I doubt that's the case. Alonzo's town. Leaves a pool of {DT, SR, Vedith, Chennisden} and I've started to feel Vedith town this gameday.
2. Agenda-driven play: I feel the nominations were explicitly to Target Shoshin and get her out of the game; and DT's transparently crusading against Shoshin.
3. Convenient play: Feel like DT settled on a Shoshin tunnel from early game and doesn't seem like he's doing much else. To be fair, though, Shoshin is a power player who manages to control lynches from BoP and players like RC/Shoshin influence the gamestate making it slightly harder to push elsewhere for other slots; regardless I think my point still holds validity.

Volx, comments on this? Where do we disagree logic-wise?

At this point I agree with your scumpool of {DoubtingThomas, Scumreading, Vedith, Chennisden}, because Alonzo is locktown, Shoshin has done things that are most likely out of her scumrange, and based on my previous analysis post you are most likely town as well. In any case, I don't think DoubtingThomas has been super towny this game, but he was over-the-top scummy in our last game together.

I definitely don't find Vedith towny after that "just lynch me" AtE post. Irrelephant sacrificed himself (after first wanting me to be lynched), but only because he had clearly articulated reasons for why he was convinced that both Shoshin and I were town, and his primary motivation in doing so was that he wanted Shoshin to stay in the game. He consistently townread Shoshin throughout most of the game, and he really only came to a point where he was OK with his own lynch once he became convinced that I was town as well.

Vedith on the other hand has just done a complete 180 on Chennisden for completely unexplained reasons, at a point in time where Chennisden is already at L-1, and he is now advocating for his own lynch. This is more likely to come from scum!Vedith than town!Vedith. If Vedith and Chennisden are scum together, he might be doing it as a last-ditch effort to make it look like they aren't SvS. If Vedith is scum and Chennisden is town, then he might be doing it because he believes Chennisden will still be lynched regardless, and he believes he comes across more towny by 1) correctly identifying Chennisden as town pre-flip and 2) acting like he is willing to sacrifice himself.

If he can't even articulate reasons as to why he is 100% convinced that both Shoshin and Chennisden are town, then it's completely anti-town for town!Vedith to be advocating for his own lynch. Which is why it's highly unlikely that town!Vedith would make this move. And I don't buy that he suddenly has a strong townread of Chennisden out of nowhere that he can't even explain.

[volxen]

VOTE: Vedith

I don't necessarily think we should hammer Chennisden just yet, in case the scumteam is DoubtingThomas/Vedith/Scumreading. Scumreading is already voting for Chennisden, and DoubtingThomas just gave intent to hammer.

[volxen]

Interesting sequence of events:

VOTE: Chennisden

Let's just get on with this.

Shoshin puts Chennisden at L-1.

I think I'd just prefer to be lynched and not deal with the players in this game.
Then you can sheep my reads.

Vedith offers to sacrifice himself.

I changed my mind and think Chen is town.

Not much to say other than I think Chen might be town.

Vedith does a 180 on Chennisden and now townreads him.

well nothing's happening. i might hammer, tbh

intent to hammer in a few hours. i am gonna go study and come back. if you object and are not shoshin and wants to talk to me, @ me in bold so i can get back to you

DT gives intent to hammer. All of this happened within a span of 4 hours. So if the scumteam is Vedith/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, Vedith waited until Chennisden was at L-1 to to start "townreading" him and offer to sacrifice himself, knowing that it didn't matter because DT was going to come in and hammer Chennisden anyway.

[chennisden]

UNVOTE:
Had states mathcounts today and was busy - will read

[chennisden]

If I don't die now, I'll die sometime more important. I do believe Vedith is town; I express reservations about Shoshin.

If nobody objects, I intent to hammer.

[volxen]

If I don't die now, I'll die sometime more important. I do believe Vedith is town; I express reservations about Shoshin.

If nobody objects, I intent to hammer.

Why do you think Vedith is town and have reservations about Shoshin? And what are your reads on all of the other slots?

[volxen]

And by the way @Chennisden, what I said to Vedith applies to you as well if you are thinking about self-hammering. If you are town you shouldn't self-hammer unless you are 100% convinced that both Shoshin and Vedith are town.

[Auro]

Why do you think Vedith is town and have reservations about Shoshin? And what are your reads on all of the other slots?

Interesting that both slots have progressed to townreading each other, more confident that Shoshin is scum than the other and both want to self-vote?

[volxen]

Why do you think Vedith is town and have reservations about Shoshin? And what are your reads on all of the other slots?

Interesting that both slots have progressed to townreading each other, more confident that Shoshin is scum than the other and both want to self-vote?

I think it's a ridiculous attempt at scum theater by Vedith and Chennisden. The idea being to make the one that survives look more towny, and to create paranoia that Shoshin is scum with whichever one of them gets flipped. It makes sense for there to be two scum nominees if the scumteam is three out of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading}. The game is currently divided into two halves, the townblock of {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen, Alonzo} and the scumpool of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading}. Regardless of which three out of those four is the scumteam, they have to get at least one person from the townblock mislynched. Following Shoshin's logic of taking the "easiest, most simple, least risky" path to victory, they could have technically done an all-town nomination list today such as {Auro, Shoshin, Alonzo} to take out someone from the townblock. However, even if they did this, none of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading} would be in a position to control the lynch on day five. The remaining members of the townblock would still be in control of the lynch, and the scumteam still ultimately loses to POE eventually regardless of who they nominate on subsequent even-numbered day phases.

So the only way that they can win is to break up the townblock of {Auro, Shoshin, Volxen, Alonzo}. Auro is a universal townread, and Alonzo is mostly a universal locktown read, which leaves Shoshin and I as their targets. To meet their win condition, they either have to get both Shoshin and I mislynched or get one of us mislynched along with whichever one of {DoubtingThomas, Vedith, Chennisden, Scumreading} is not scum. They simply don't have a lot of options here because they are losing to POE, but it makes sense that they would decide that they need to bus one of their members and then create paranoia that that person is scum with Shoshin and/or me. It especially makes sense if Vedith and Chennisden are scum together, because their mutual willingness to sacrifice themselves is just a last-ditch effort to make whichever one of them survives look more towny.

Our townblock aside there is zero chance that Vedith and Chennisden are both town, as it would simply be absurd for them to mutually do complete 180's on each other and both be willing to sacrifice themselves,

especially

with Chennisden claiming to have "reservations" about Shoshin (and Vedith has yet to directly declare Shoshin a townread as well). There is a small chance that one of them is town, but I think the most likely scenario is that this is orchestrated scum theater.

[ejjinami]

Vote Count 4.10

Chennisden:

(4) scum reading, Auro, Alonzo, Shoshin

Vedith:

(1) volxen

Shoshin:

(1) DoubtingThomas

Not Voting:

Vedith, chennisden

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-30 06:58:50)

[Vedith]

VOTE: Shoshon

[scum reading]

Here's what I think. How about we lynch the dude that didn't post any game-relevant content this whole game and that repped in a slot that flaked and voted for pressure on someone who thought was town.

If he flips scum, we vote Vedith because he ended up town reading chennis after he scum read him and he's trying to split votes.

If he flips town, we're voting DT because other than his 1v1 with rc, everything else was fluff. These last few days I don't remember him saying anything that's actually game-relevant.

[scum reading]

That + he places an attempt to hammer after parking his vote on shoshin hoping a vanity wagon becomes a legit wagon. even though he gave no opinion on any slot from the nominee list.

[Vedith]

I'm only voting you tomorrow, scum reading.

[scum reading]

Got it big chief