Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Shoshin]

I'd also rather not talk too much about who SR's partners are because I don't want to give anything away when it comes to nominating for tomorrow.

[scum reading]

Yeah. It's a calculated risk - I wondered if it's safe to, reasoned that in a 1v1 between them I'd go for SR - are you seriously considering the possibility of Shoshin scum and SR town?

Lack of quickhammer should suggest he's scum by now, no?

See this.

To be safe,

I declare intent to L-1 Scum Reading.

I’ve explained this, chennis.

Of course she was the one forcing this battle, she forgot vedith’s agenda was shoshin gets lynched first.

BoP suggests she’s scum. She voted Vedith over you because his reads were heavily accusing me for no reason, he said “meta” but he didn’t explain it. It’s a confbias and you shouldn’t be fooled.

There’s no way this is a bus. Scum!shoshin isn’t that dumb to bus in this position. If she’s lynched, her team mates are fairly obvious. And I’ve pointed it out.

Keep in mind she didn’t touch on my case at all and is talking you into lynching me. I’m not talking you into lynching her, it’s ultimately your choice. Notice the pressure on her, she has to mislynch quickly and I’m her only shot at winning this.

[scum reading]

I'd also rather not talk too much about who SR's partners are because I don't want to give anything away when it comes to nominating for tomorrow.

Even this post is scummy as it is, she’s not saying anything because she doesn’t want to give any clues.

She’s forcing you into lynching me although “my scum mates” are never going to be mentioned because we’ll be endgamed.

This post is trying to make you feel reassured that she’s got further reads, when in reality, if you place your vote on me, I’m getting hammered by 3rd scum.

[scum reading]

And we’re all going home and this ends.

[scum reading]

Okay, Volx. I have to deal with your errant mind yet again. Okay.

For starters, when you start making assumptions about behaviors, please make the least # of assumptions possible & choose assumptions that are most likely to apply with the highest probability. Don't make assumptions about things based on lots of speculation & low probabilities. I agree with you that Alonzo's very likely to be town, that's fine. But you shouldn't assume that me & Auro wouldn't bus. We're as likely to bus as not bus in this type of situation & it's impossible for you to know with high probability what's happening from a town perspective either way.

There's better assumptions to be made about this game that will help you solve with higher probability & less speculation. Let's go over these:

1. It's very unlikely for scum to nominate themselves because the risk is unnecessary & far outweighs the potential reward.

2. It's very unlikely for scum to self-nominate a member twice in a row after she almost got lynched the first time, especially when taking that risk is unnecessary to win.

3. In a 1v1 at LYLO, if scum haven't hammered one of the players after everyone has had a chance to post, one of the players in the 1v1 is very likely to be scum.

These assumptions are significantly higher probability than your speculations about bussing. What happens when you apply these assumptions to the game? They point to SR as scum 100% of the time.

I'll apply the assumptions for you so that I don't leave anything to your errant mind:

1. There's at least one scum between myself & SR because of the 1v1 at LYLO.

2. I'm very likely to be town because I was nominated twice in a row.

3. Therefore, SR is scum.

That's the analysis you should apply today because it's the highest percentage lynch. It doesn't require any speculation about bussing. It doesn't even require assumptions about Alonzo's alignment even though we obviously agree on that.

That said, let's talk about why your analysis fails even when applying your bussing assumptions. You say that scum Auro aligned with SR pushes DT or Chenn today. This is untrue because I forced the issue by voting SR. Auro had no choice but to vote between myself & SR, and given the fact that he could hammer me in the event that a townie votes me, he faces no risk whatsoever by placing a vote on SR while waiting to see what happens. Auro isn't clear.

The reason this matters is because it means Auro/SR/Chenn is still plausible. It's plausible enough that rather than vote DT you need to be lynching the highest percentage chance of hitting scum & that's SR in all cases. Again, my analysis requires fewer assumptions with less speculation & higher probability than yours, so please just follow my reasoning instead of allowing your mind to wander itself into making cognitive errors.

There's another thing you're not considering, which is the fact that you're not cleared as town by anyone except yourself. As such, you're not going to convince anyone with your analysis because your analysis assumes you're town, something that none of us know with certainty except you.

For those reasons, you need to be looking at lynching SR today.

So the whole case on me is basically I’m scum and you’re not because you were nominated twice.

[volxen]

I'm working something out here, but the idea is that I think if either Shoshin or Auro are scum, they would not need to bus at all to win this game, which means DoubtingThomas is actually a better vote.

But it is guaranteed that

at least

one of Shoshin and SR are scum. If you don't think Shoshin is scum then it must be SR.

I'm well aware that at least one of Shoshin and SR are scum. The point is that if I get to a point where I'm confident enough that DoubtingThomas is scum, I can vote for him and start a 1vs1 between the two of us. Then people can choose if they want to sort between {Shoshin, Scumreading} or {Volxen, DoubtingThomas}. If I get to a point where I'm more confident on DoubtingThomans being scum than anything else, it would make sense for me to do this.

[volxen]

@Alonzo, Who do you feel the most comfortable voting for at the moment?

[ejjinami]

Vote Count 5.5

scum reading:

(2) Shoshin, Auro

Shoshin:

(1) scum reading

Not Voting:

volxen, chennisden, DoubtingThomas, Alonzo

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 5 deadline is in (expired on 2019-04-02 15:20:45)

[ejjinami]

Auro has requested replacement.

[ejjinami]

Xtoxm replaces Auro.

[Xtoxm]

sup
im the schmuck taking the lylo replace

[Xtoxm]

looks like auros done the good work for me
i mean ive seen scum dawdle on the hammers before but its been like 2 days lets hurry it up if so

i instinctually wanna say everyone on the nom yesterday was town
at a glance i wouldnt expect volxen to be scum
making the solve sr/dt/alonzo
probably too easy tho

[chennisden]

I'm working something out here, but the idea is that I think if either Shoshin or Auro are scum, they would not need to bus at all to win this game, which means DoubtingThomas is actually a better vote.

But it is guaranteed that

at least

one of Shoshin and SR are scum. If you don't think Shoshin is scum then it must be SR.

I'm well aware that at least one of Shoshin and SR are scum. The point is that if I get to a point where I'm confident enough that DoubtingThomas is scum, I can vote for him and start a 1vs1 between the two of us. Then people can choose if they want to sort between {Shoshin, Scumreading} or {Volxen, DoubtingThomas}. If I get to a point where I'm more confident on DoubtingThomans being scum than anything else, it would make sense for me to do this.

Getting info with a risk of insta losing is usually not worth it

But if you consider it worth it, do so

Alternatively, we could have Shoshin do it and then we find 2 scum

[chennisden]

looks like auros done the good work for me
i mean ive seen scum dawdle on the hammers before but its been like 2 days lets hurry it up if so

i instinctually wanna say everyone on the nom yesterday was town
at a glance i wouldnt expect volxen to be scum
making the solve sr/dt/alonzo
probably too easy tho

thoughts in this entrance, anyone?

sounds like something scum says trying to make our PoE bad

[chennisden]

anyone who doesn't want SR quicklynched is inherently town

nvm; i have no objections to forcing the 1v1 with DT

reread the thread and vote DT if you're absolutely confident; we don't have

THAT

much time

[chennisden]

the only way volxen is scum is with shoshin and scum reading.

and this just, doesn't happen.

[Shoshin]

I'm thinking about replacing out as well after seeing that Auro did.

[Shoshin]

It's either that or Volx stops making this game 10x harder than it needs to be.

[chennisden]

Yeah. It's a calculated risk - I wondered if it's safe to, reasoned that in a 1v1 between them I'd go for SR - are you seriously considering the possibility of Shoshin scum and SR town?

Lack of quickhammer should suggest he's scum by now, no?

See this.

To be safe,

I declare intent to L-1 Scum Reading.

I’ve explained this, chennis.

Of course she was the one forcing this battle, she forgot vedith’s agenda was shoshin gets lynched first.

BoP suggests she’s scum. She voted Vedith over you because his reads were heavily accusing me for no reason, he said “meta” but he didn’t explain it. It’s a confbias and you shouldn’t be fooled.

There’s no way this is a bus. Scum!shoshin isn’t that dumb to bus in this position. If she’s lynched, her team mates are fairly obvious. And I’ve pointed it out.

Keep in mind she didn’t touch on my case at all and is talking you into lynching me. I’m not talking you into lynching her, it’s ultimately your choice. Notice the pressure on her, she has to mislynch quickly and I’m her only shot at winning this.

As I said before,

if you're town, please deathtunnel Shoshin. There is no way she is town if you are; I've talked about this numerous times.

[chennisden]

Okay, Volx. I have to deal with your errant mind yet again. Okay.

For starters, when you start making assumptions about behaviors, please make the least # of assumptions possible & choose assumptions that are most likely to apply with the highest probability. Don't make assumptions about things based on lots of speculation & low probabilities. I agree with you that Alonzo's very likely to be town, that's fine. But you shouldn't assume that me & Auro wouldn't bus. We're as likely to bus as not bus in this type of situation & it's impossible for you to know with high probability what's happening from a town perspective either way.

There's better assumptions to be made about this game that will help you solve with higher probability & less speculation. Let's go over these:

1. It's very unlikely for scum to nominate themselves because the risk is unnecessary & far outweighs the potential reward.

2. It's very unlikely for scum to self-nominate a member twice in a row after she almost got lynched the first time, especially when taking that risk is unnecessary to win.

3. In a 1v1 at LYLO, if scum haven't hammered one of the players after everyone has had a chance to post, one of the players in the 1v1 is very likely to be scum.

These assumptions are significantly higher probability than your speculations about bussing. What happens when you apply these assumptions to the game? They point to SR as scum 100% of the time.

I'll apply the assumptions for you so that I don't leave anything to your errant mind:

1. There's at least one scum between myself & SR because of the 1v1 at LYLO.

2. I'm very likely to be town because I was nominated twice in a row.

3. Therefore, SR is scum.

That's the analysis you should apply today because it's the highest percentage lynch. It doesn't require any speculation about bussing. It doesn't even require assumptions about Alonzo's alignment even though we obviously agree on that.

That said, let's talk about why your analysis fails even when applying your bussing assumptions. You say that scum Auro aligned with SR pushes DT or Chenn today. This is untrue because I forced the issue by voting SR. Auro had no choice but to vote between myself & SR, and given the fact that he could hammer me in the event that a townie votes me, he faces no risk whatsoever by placing a vote on SR while waiting to see what happens. Auro isn't clear.

The reason this matters is because it means Auro/SR/Chenn is still plausible. It's plausible enough that rather than vote DT you need to be lynching the highest percentage chance of hitting scum & that's SR in all cases. Again, my analysis requires fewer assumptions with less speculation & higher probability than yours, so please just follow my reasoning instead of allowing your mind to wander itself into making cognitive errors.

There's another thing you're not considering, which is the fact that you're not cleared as town by anyone except yourself. As such, you're not going to convince anyone with your analysis because your analysis assumes you're town, something that none of us know with certainty except you.

For those reasons, you need to be looking at lynching SR today.

So the whole case on me is basically I’m scum and you’re not because you were nominated twice.

There is no reason for her not to deathtunnel you.

[scum reading]

Tht’s what I’ve been saying, I’m the easiest push.

We are on the same page chennis...Why are you making it look like we’re not?

[chennisden]

the two possible worlds rn:

Shoshin/xToxm/???

scum reading/???/???

[chennisden]

Tht’s what I’ve been saying, I’m the easiest push.

We are on the same page chennis...Why are you making it look like we’re not?

if she's town she knows FOR SURE you're scum.

[chennisden]

Tht’s what I’ve been saying, I’m the easiest push.

We are on the same page chennis...Why are you making it look like we’re not?

for what it's worth i agree you're the easiest mislynch if town.

[Shoshin]

Chenn, why aren't you voting SR? What's holding you back?