Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Xtoxm]

if you're so confident in alonzo town, how do you feel about self voting, volx?

[volxen]

if you're so confident in alonzo town, how do you feel about self voting, volx?

I'm not 100% confident in Chennisden being town.

[Shoshin]

SR seemed a lot more willing to lynch Chenn over you, Volx. Not saying you're scum but when I'm forced to make these subtle decisions I'm looking at every detail. Is there anything in this game outside your scum range?

[chennisden]

y'all wanna towncase yourselves

like uh im town for D5

[chennisden]

Alonzo didn't help much during LyLo - maybe scum trying to go unnoticed.

From my PoV this is better than my own lynch for now

[Xtoxm]

y'all wanna towncase yourselves

like uh im town for D5

so am i
anything else?

[volxen]

SR seemed a lot more willing to lynch Chenn over you, Volx. Not saying you're scum but when I'm forced to make these subtle decisions I'm looking at every detail. Is there anything in this game outside your scum range?

It's also possible Scumreading was trying to establish false SvS associatives if he figured he was going down anyways. For example, if the scumteam is Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading, he may have purposefully ignored the "requests" for him to vote for Xtoxm to make it look like they are SvS.

As far as my scumrange goes, my entire gameplay in this game is arguably outside of my scumrange. I've never played like this before as scum, and in all of my solo scumgames I've been lynched on day 1 or day 2 (except for the one that I replaced out of). I've won some of my solo scumgames, but I've gotten lynched in all of them very early on. The only scumgames where I haven't gotten lynched were Lynchpin (where I hydra'd with Auro + LolWagons + Thor665) and BOP Mafia (where I hydra'd with Auro), and I posted very little in either of those games (I made only one post in BOP Mafia). Auro and LolWagons carried our slot in Lynchpin, and Auro carried our slot in BOP Mafia.

Links to my solo scumgames:

Open 735: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77119
Newbie 1900: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77781
Open 740: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=77755
*Newbie 1905: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77949

*I replaced out of this game.

Links to my hydra scumgames:

Micro 842 (on The Great Wall hydra): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=78192
Micro 857 -- BOP Mafia (on the Michael Scott hydra): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=79095

There's also the fact that I would never self-nominate myself against you and Irrelephant when it was highly likely that the two of you would double team me due to your history together. Scum!me could not have predicted that you would prefer to lynch Irrelephant over me due to concerns about him being a well-hidden deepwolf, nor could I have predicted that Irrelephant would be willing to sacrifice himself.

[chennisden]

this setup sorta discourages bussing too.

[chennisden]

No matter who we lynch today we lynch DT tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

Volx, do not ever talk to me about what's possible, only what's probable.

[volxen]

this setup sorta discourages bussing too.

Well Scumreading was definitely bussed one way or another, because Shoshin started the 1vs1 against him. Scum's options were to 1) pick a side between Shoshin and Scumreading (and it would be hard for either of you or Auro to justify voting for Shoshin over scumreading) or 2) start another 1vs1 against someone else and try to get that person lynched instead of Scumreading. Either way, refusing to bus Scumreading would be a highly risky play for the scumteam.

I hammered Scumreading at the time that I did because DoubtingThomas forced my hand when he voted for Shoshin.

[chennisden]

You're town for the hammer, not scum.

Scum reading could have started a 1v1 with xtoxm. Whether he legitimately didn't know or was doing it as a dumbtell for xtoxm is another question.

[chennisden]

There is literally no reason for scum volxen to hammer SR.

[volxen]

Volx, do not ever talk to me about what's possible, only what's probable.

That's what I was implying though. That it's highly improbable that I would self-nominate myself against you and Irrelephant as scum. And that it's highly probable that I am town here, as my gameplay here is much more inline with my town meta than my scum meta.

Regarding whether it's more probable that Scumreading 1) refused to vote for Xtoxm because they are scumbuddies or 2) refused to vote for Xtoxm to make it

look

like they are scumbuddies, yes it's more probable that 1) is the case, I just haven't completely ruled out 2) because scum do try to establish false SvS associatives by doing things like that. I still think a Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading scumteam is more probable than a Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading scumteam.

Things that suggest that Xtoxm/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading is a highly probable scumteam include 1) Auro talking about how scum!Shoshin would "bus heavily", which to me looked like he was setting up a defense for himself in case he ever ended up in a 1vs1 against Shoshin, 2) Auro defending Scumreading when the perspective slip was brought up, 3) Auro saying that DoubtingThomas is "probscum" while simultaneously never trying to get him lynched, 4) Auro saying that Shohshin leading mislynches is scum-indicative for her because she is "really, really good at town" (i.e., he BOPed her), 5) Auro was aggressive about wanting to lynch Chennisden on both day four and day five, and 6) Auro suggested that I should take Vedith's "dying read" of DoubtingThomas being town into account:

I'm not sold on the perspective slips from SR in a vacuum, feels like he's not expressing him clearly; I have ~reasons to believe this can come from town!him.

Volxen, DT is probscum to me from two primary perspectives.

1. PoE: I have you as town from your analysis (if you're scum, you've suddenly expanded a lot on your scumrange; and there's another towntell I won't reveal atm). Shoshin is town for a host of reasons - if she's scum she's wayyyy outside her personal scumrange and I doubt that's the case. Alonzo's town. Leaves a pool of {DT, SR, Vedith, Chennisden} and I've started to feel Vedith town this gameday.
2. Agenda-driven play: I feel the nominations were explicitly to Target Shoshin and get her out of the game; and DT's transparently crusading against Shoshin.
3. Convenient play: Feel like DT settled on a Shoshin tunnel from early game and doesn't seem like he's doing much else. To be fair, though, Shoshin is a power player who manages to control lynches from BoP and players like RC/Shoshin influence the gamestate making it slightly harder to push elsewhere for other slots; regardless I think my point still holds validity.

Way past my bedtime. I'll be back in the morning. I think Chen is the correct lynch, and if not, SR. Vedith's reads were off.

Volxen, re: DT - are you completely unfazed by Vedith's dying reads? He had DT as a top townread.

I voted them so at this point your lynch options are me or SR. If one of us is town, the game's over.

This looks like a slip to me. Can you spot the mistake?

Volxen, individually I'm a lot more confident in SR being scum than Shoshin. In a 1v1 between them two, I'm always going to drive the lynch towards SR.

Read post 2696. I think Shoshin has reasons to bus heavily at this point, if she's scum.

If Shoshin's scum who would her partners be?
I doubt DT would be a partner. Chennisden is a maybe. You are potentially, but I think you're town + her frustration with you doesn't feel SvS.

Don't think so

The major argument for scum!her is BoP. She's really, really good at town, so a string of mislynches is scum indicative. Even if you argue that D2/4 were nominated, she established scumreads on Chennisden and Vedith as well - and Vedith also flipped town.

[chennisden]

I read Volxen town, Shoshin town. I am conftown to myself.

Therefore my preferred lynch is Alonzo.

We lynch DT tomorrow regardless.

[volxen]

y'all wanna towncase yourselves

like uh im town for D5

so am i
anything else?

What about your day five play makes you likely to be town?

[chennisden]

I helped push SR's death. I pointed out the inconsistency of his doubt about xtoxm (when xtoxm should've been confscum to him if he was town.)

[chennisden]

Yo DT if you're town talk me out of lynching you tomorrow

[DoubtingThomas]

GOT THE JOB

[DoubtingThomas]

pretty unbelievably in a good mood

[DoubtingThomas]

Yo DT if you're town talk me out of lynching you tomorrow

i am town

[chennisden]

GOT THE JOB

gg mate

[Shoshin]

I'm probably voting Volx today.

[Alonzo]

If no one votes its RNG right?

[chennisden]

If no one votes its RNG right?

@mod