Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[Dannflor]

ok I'm gonna post my theory now even though it's probably just stupid and crazy because I don't wanna have typed it up for nothing

Buj still hasn't gotten back to me but \o/ fuck it

[Dannflor]

Jingle is town because he was paranoid about me and scum read me when I entered the game, full stop. There are a lot of other reasons and specific posts that have town pinged me since then. But that is one main reason I think he is town.

Specifically being paranoid about me because of No Deadlines is a town instinct imo, and his criticism and comparison of my posts to that game was legit enough from his pov that I really do think it comes from town looking for similarities rather than scum looking for an excuse to drive a mislynch. If he wanted to use No Deadlines as an "excuse" to scum read me, he could've just done that, but he didn't do that.

EE is also town for this. While he defended me, he did so in order to sort me and certainly hasn't treated me as obvious or conf town without any reconsideration.

In general, I do believe scum is more likely to give me an easy town read, the average scum at least. Scum have to fake reads and for a lot of slots they'll go for whatever is easiest. In general, my posting style is just easier to read as town. It's easy to look at my posts and just be like, hey that seems town. It takes more effort to scum read me than town read me if that makes any sense at all. Scum can and have done it, but it's usually more effort to actually read all the words I'm saying and figure out how to frame it as scummy

Here are most of the lowest effort town reads I could find on me from immediately after I replaced in:

If Dannflor leads on scum, Dannflor is scum.

DoubtingThomas was pretty town.

DT was town, so I am town. Okay, that's actually okay, Karm doesn't really comment on my posts but there's not a need.

Like these reads and Eagles play as of late. I agree with his 1553 as well; I think Dannflor is town

Eh, lazy. Unclear whether Mcqueen town read DT or not previously.

out of these, I don't think its gamma - he just hasn't been online to push for an alternate wagon. I don't think its Kameleon. That teletubby gif is not a scum post. I don't think its Dann. Replacing in he would have had a higher urgency to move to either bus or rile up a counterwagon.

The best town read on me (oops I'm still pocketing DDL lol). Town reads me for a specific action, or in this case non-action.

Dann's post TRing me was strange and scummy, but I admit I'm having a hard time believing he's scum when

his other posts seem townie enough

and even more importantly, he replaced DT, a townie slot.

and then this is the one I kinda have an adverse reaction to

Would have been fine if he just stuck with his DT town read and called it that, but he had to justify the "strange and scummy" post by me that had been pointed out by saying my other posts seemed townie enough is just weird and vague

Especially when you consider he later asked me what happened to my "no nonsense scum-hunting attitude" it doesn't make sense why he would drop the pressure on me so readily, since he's played with me before

I asked him why he town read me again earlier today and it's just more vaguries

Because your posts have been townie and you seem actively invested in progressing the game.

I really think someone town reading me at this point would have something more specific than just my style and how I "seem," because that's stuff which can be faked

[Dannflor]

is that conf biasing

maybe

but I think it's more likely scum have had me pocketed than have been pushing me

[Ankamius]

it's entirely possible that he's specifically playing for keeping you around all game, Dann

[Dannflor]

it's entirely possible that he's specifically playing for keeping you around all game, Dann

that's basically what I'm worried about

[Dannflor]

especially because I'm definitely mislynchable over him in a scenario where I make it to lylo and town core is gone

[Dannflor]

Looks like grapes is not as bad at scum as I thought.

I also hate this post but I'm in serious danger of conf biasing at this point

[Liger_Zero]

I want max tomorrow:

VOTE: Nerfed

[Liger_Zero]

Looks like grapes is not as bad at scum as I thought.

I also hate this post but I'm in serious danger of conf biasing at this point

Also no, that isn't a post town makes almost ever unless the player in question fooled a bunch of people. grapes did not do that.

[Ankamius]

let me just put it this way

there's enough lynchbait in this town that BuJ just has to not be the top scumread for most players in order to have a good shot at living long enough to be able to outlast the towncore

if Eagle, Prince, Reiuji, and me all die, then what exactly is the threat to him?

the towncore is damn likely to fall apart if all the strongest players die
the lynchable slots that are being protected by the towncore are all mislynchable again after the towncore dies

this is doable

after tomorrow

, because you only need 4 slots dead in order to drastically weaken town in this game and I don't trust that the rest of town will be able to rally together enough to lynch BuJ if that happens

naturally it changes based on the douse order, but worst case scenario this is how I expect it would happen

I don't think Liger endgames with the towncore dead
I don't think Maxwell endgames with the towncore dead
I don't think Vedith endgames with the towncore dead

I think BuJ endgames in this scenario

[mcqueen]

Okay, and you don't want to question me because....

I could, but like I said, my vote is on you purely because of Gamma's posts. There's not much I could ask you that would help me change my mind, unless you can explain why all of Gamma's post are practically empty. I really dislike how you jumped to conclusion when I specifically said my vote on you was purely because of Gamma's posts, but whatever.

this is a terrible post and should be pointed out as such. you’re giving Liger almost no chance.

[Ankamius]

mcqueen

thoughts on BuJ please

[mcqueen]

The case on Liger is that people don't like Gamma's posts and Liger hasn't been blindingly obv town

But the thing is, Gamma has been lurky mislynch bait in virtually every single game I've played with her (sorry Gamma), and I've only see her really try hard as scum

I don't think Gamma's ISO is that damning and I really don't think Liger leaves enough associations to be a good "information lynch," not that I would ever advocate for an information lynch anyway

Like I know there's a lot of apathy going on right now and lots of "oh well it doesn't really matter in which order we lynch they all have to go"

I will fully admit I'm not 100% on any one lynch right as Enter said this is one of the fencesittiest games I've ever played

However, there's a number of things Liger has said and done today that just gut town ping me - I do not think he's the best lynch

agree here.

[mcqueen]

I am fine with getting lynched if everyone agrees to lynch Max tomorrow. So far only 3 people agreed to that, I think? And I get the impression they are backing out of that immediately after my lynch.

would rather lynch Max today over you

[Ankamius]

Look back to where Shoshin/DT were the primary wagons.

BuJ was on the Shoshin wagon first, and grapes hopped onto the wagon later with awkward justification tacked on. He didn't want to look opportunistic with hopping on that wagon since he had to have known that if that had gone through, the wagon would have been put under a microscope by the rest of the town and his vote would stick out like a sore thumb otherwise.

I assume grapes panicked when the BuJ wagon started up, because his vote on there was much more aggressive and 'emotional' than the rest of his posting.

grapes then vanished from the thread and held his vote on the BuJ wagon, which was relatively safe to do since it wasn't really moving and worst case, he'd look better if it DID start gaining traction towards a lynch because of how aggressive he was.

grapes pretty blatantly panicked when the wagon on him started, the post he made trying to attack eagle is proof enough of that.

Finally, BuJ's vote on grapes had that same weird justification, like he was more worried about how he appeared after the vote than actually lynching a scumread.

[mcqueen]

scum!me never passes on a hammer on town!liger there btw
as much as scum!rc will try to tell you otherwise

why don’t you actually contribute to the game instead of being useless

[mcqueen]

VOTE: NerfedBuJ

Can we go back to this please

No

[mcqueen]

RAS do you believe that Liger's predecessor is more readable than Liger is?

I ask because my initial impression is the opposite

My vote is there for a reason, but I think you're right more often than not. I just think in this scenario, and from having ISO'd both of them, I genuinely feel like his predecessor has given more than he has in terms of reads on that slot. I could simply just having a hard time reading L0 here, but I'm finding it very hard to ignore Gamma's opener into this game. It's something that's there, and it's the type of openers that I dislike a lot.

I should also add, if it wasn't obvious enough already, but I don't really have much confidence in this game which is really weird from me because I don't usually flip-flop my reads so much, but I think it's something I will be able to improve on with a flip.

VOTE: ras

Stop pushing this bullshit narrative

[Prince of Renais]

Ank is town btw

[mcqueen]

RAS vote Max.

Vote ras

[Prince of Renais]

I would hope that I don't need to say that, but.

[mcqueen]

I really don't think Max would end up endgaming this as scum unless everybody gets trapped chasing their tails until scum can destroy all the strong town players, which is still a few days off

BuJ is that kind of player I suspect would get pushed back into the townblock if he doesn't get lynched sooner rather than later, and all it really takes is both Eagle and myself being ignited for all these associatives to be completely forgotten since I don't think anybody else in this playerlist would ever look back at that and how he continues throughout the game.

Liger is just a compromise because people don't really know what to do atm and are stuck in a solve.
Xtoxm is probably town and just feels like a wasted lynch.

I'd really rather we get BuJ today even if just to remove my own paranoia of him endgaming.

remind me why you’re stuck on BuJ

[Dannflor]

RAS is probably town

[mcqueen]

VOTE: Buj

bad vote

[Liger_Zero]

RAS is probably town

Yea

unfortunately