Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Oh also I think BuJ's mathpost came from towny interest?

[Ankamius]

That's... an interesting time to be discussing that

Most of his posting around that time is defending himself or that, I could see that coming from scum!him being content with where the gamestate is sitting

[Jingle]

Who am I supposed to voting right now?

liger

Terrible company, no thx.

I like Ank's PoE.

VOTE: buj

[Jingle]

Oh also I think BuJ's mathpost came from towny interest?

Ah, right, mathpost.

Hold my beer, I got this.

[Ankamius]

That's... an interesting time to be discussing that

Most of his posting around that time is defending himself or that, I could see that coming from scum!him being content with where the gamestate is sitting

Nvm this isn't actually correct

But his content is fairly low level stuff that isn't too far out of the consensus, the math posting could have just been there to maintain a townread alongside his defense

[Jingle]

Snip

15 alive.

11 unprimed, 2 primed, 2 scum.

Assumptions: Random Lynch, Scum Prime Unprimed Town, Scum Ignite when Ignite == Win, no Primed player already lynched.

Day3

11/15 UP Lynch -> D4 9/3/2
2/15 Primed Lynch -> D4 10/2/2
2/15 S Lynch -> D4 10/3/1

If you assume 3 conftown (which is bleh) the distribution of conftown affects the percentages differently based on distribution of primed/unprimed.

tl;dr math post extra garbagy garbage without flawed assumptions and no relevance to the game even without that.

[NerfedBuJ]

@Ank - I think I didn't get lynched because of EE, DT, and Prince. Rei also townread me for a large proportion of the game, though she's less vocal in general I don't know if people are payinh attention to her reads. My analysis of the game state and flow since day 1 dictates the towncpre is what's keeping me alive, not who is threatening me.

@liger - grapes is absolutely fooling everyone liger because without his posts nobody would have been pinged by me in the first place, which made me scrutinize me more, and allow for confbias and paranoia to sink in.

I voted liger because his push on max feels like bussing to me. He replaced clem, and just the whole game has felt like scum have been doing nothing. It is also the basis of my ali read and paranoia, she is scum with shitty partners. So I could go for max first, I don't mind giving liger that. It's just people are thinking liger's town flip incriminates max, and vice versa, when I think a scum flip is more damning. I also think vedith is very possibly scum here and the townreads on him baffle me. I don't know why he has a reputation for giving a shit as scum more than town. The guy can obvtown with the best of them and there's none of that here. He's basically just tunelled me the whole game or commented on comments about him or posted NAI stuff.

@Dann - so I'm being punished for being right? You replaced DT anyway. I don't need to build a towncase on you by looking at posts and quoting them and explaining to everyone why scum don't make them. Not when nobody thinks you're scum. Also I play catchup most of the time because my bedtime coincides with peak activity, I don't feel particularly motivated to quote specific things from x pages ago just to reiterate a town read on you. My scum game with you is a big part of your impression of me, right? Read some town games. See how well I read people, how I come across, the type of stances I take.

Pedit - jingle, yes the percentages and distributions change depending on who gets primed and who gets lynched. I don't understand the point you're making?

[Jingle]

The point was that your mathpost was entirely irrelevant at best.

[NerfedBuJ]

Ank you have to look at how my wagon built up, the posts made that sparked the dissipation of my wagon, the townreads received later from the which type of players (sheepers/lurkers). The people saving my ass are not the people that will be here at lylo. Like I don't even know what you could have read to give you that impression. It is a strong theory if somebody came up with it without reading the actual game but in this particular game it doesn't match the game flow.

[NerfedBuJ]

The point was that your mathpost was entirely irrelevant at best.

I only made it to answer xtox's direct question on why I thought scum can't win this.

I think the way I calculated it and the assumptions I made allow me to calculate the worst case scenario for town, meaning all other cases give us even better odds. It is enough to answer his question, or at least explain to him why my perspective of the game is so much different than his.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

now that mini 2060 is over

AtE is definitely ai

[Liger_Zero]

I voted liger because his push on max feels like bussing to me. He replaced clem, and just the whole game has felt like scum have been doing nothing. It is also the basis of my ali read and paranoia, she is scum with shitty partners. So I could go for max first, I don't mind giving liger that. It's just people are thinking liger's town flip incriminates max, and vice versa, when I think a scum flip is more damning. I also think vedith is very possibly scum here and the townreads on him baffle me. I don't know why he has a reputation for giving a shit as scum more than town. The guy can obvtown with the best of them and there's none of that here. He's basically just tunelled me the whole game or commented on comments about him or posted NAI stuff.

So you think me, max, and vedith are scum.....
What?

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Most of his posting around that time is defending himself or that, I could see that coming from scum!him being content with where the gamestate is sitting

I think if I was BuJ and J was scum I wouldn't be content with the gamestate? Like, "spending most of his time defending" and "content with the gamestate" doesn't mesh.

[Dannflor]

so I'm being punished for being right? You replaced DT anyway. I don't need to build a towncase on you by looking at posts and quoting them and explaining to everyone why scum don't make them.

Not when nobody thinks you're scum.

That isn't true

Several people have pushed me as scum this game

I'm not asking you to town case me, I'm just asking if you have a specific reason to town read me beyond just "my posts seeming townie"

It's been made clear by Jingle (and Enter ig) that I'm capable of faking posts that get generally town read (deserved or not is another debate), so I'm surprised there hasn't been more paranoia from you towards my slot, especially given my entrance which you said was scummy

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Like if he is spending his time having to defend himself and yet he feels content with the game state that's more town if anything.

[Dannflor]

I don't feel particularly motivated to quote specific things from x pages ago just to reiterate a town read on you

I don't even need you to do this just like

I feel like you've never tried to sort me despite my slot being one that a lot of players are trying to sort

I have no idea for what reasons you think my posts are townie

[Dannflor]

Most of his posting around that time is defending himself or that, I could see that coming from scum!him being content with where the gamestate is sitting

I think if I was BuJ and J was scum I wouldn't be content with the gamestate? Like, "spending most of his time defending" and "content with the gamestate" doesn't mesh.

Like if he is spending his time having to defend himself and yet he feels content with the game state that's more town if anything.

Ank was wrong.

Buj hasn't had to defend himself until, basically now.

[Extrapolated Eagle]

hmmm

VOTE: nerfedbuj

[Liger_Zero]

Like if he is spending his time having to defend himself and yet he feels content with the game state that's more town if anything.

You just sound like your making up reasons to townread him. You reading your posts?

[Extrapolated Eagle]

VOTE: liger

[Reiuji Utsuho]

I don't know if people are payinh attention to her reads.

Not many are apparently becaue barely any people reaponded to my list <_<

[Liger_Zero]

I missed your vote Eagle. It feels so comfy here.

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Like if he is spending his time having to defend himself and yet he feels content with the game state that's more town if anything.

You just sound like your making up reasons to townread him. You reading your posts?

Of course. I double check them too.
Peoblem?

[Liger_Zero]

Like if he is spending his time having to defend himself and yet he feels content with the game state that's more town if anything.

You just sound like your making up reasons to townread him. You reading your posts?

Of course. I double check them too.
Peoblem?

As long as you recognize it, we golden.

[Reiuji Utsuho]

Hah, jokes on me, I typed the same typo twice.
Problem*