Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[chennisden]

Yeah, tomorrow Ank goes.

if we don't get surprised by alonzo flip

[volxen]

@DT It’s still really, really bad that you have your vote on me. You claimed it was random, but you need to start being practical if you are town. This “I’m RNGing it for the luls” isn’t going to fly. There are only 3 possibilities with respect to my slot:

1) I am scum with Shoshin.
2) I am scum with DT.
3) I am town.

You obviously aren’t going to say that 2 is the case. You’ve already said that scum!SR implies town!Shoshin. Furthermore, no one here seriously believes that

BOTH

you and Ank are town. Scum!Ank implies town!Volxen because I cannot possibly be scum with Ank (or Chennisden or Alonzo for that matter).

You claim to be convinced that Shoshin is town. Town!you has no reason to seriously believe that Ank is town. That in and of itself also means that you also

KNOW that I’m town

. Town!you actually knows more about my slot than anyone else, because objectively a Volxen/DT/SR scumteam can’t be 100% ruled out based on lylo votes alone. It’s extremely unlikely based on gameplay, but it’s not something that can be 100% ruled out objectively. The point is that town!you

KNOWS that I’m town

, and you cannot be as confident about town!Alonzo or town!Chennisden.

Alonzo could be scum with Ank. Chennisden could be scum with Ank. I

CAN’T

be scum with Ank. That’s the difference, and it’s a critical one.

The reality of the gamestate is that the case against scum!Auro is actually even stronger than the case against scum!DT at this point. Shoshin just said that Ank confirmed that the slot is scum. FL’s entire ISO is essentially one big perspective slip – he basically replaced into the game and came to the position of “Volxen/Shoshin are scum and are setting up DT for a mislynch” without even reading the game. His reasoning for calling both Shoshin and I scum was merely the fact that we were pushing his slot as a scum slot. He didn’t even consider the possibility that one of or both of us are misguided town. Is it reasonable to conclude that town!FL replaces into a game and immediately starts pushing the people who are pushing him, without making any effort to understand

WHY

his slot is being pushed in the first place? No, town!FL is smarter than that, he’s not going to take the overly-simplistic approach of “both of the people pushing me must be scum”. His entire ISO clearly is written from the perspective of someone who know’s everyone’s alignment, i.e., someone who has scum knowledge. His play was agenda driven (paint Volxen/Shoshin as scum) as opposed to gamesolving, because if he made any genuine attempt to gamesolve he would know that Shoshin and I are not scum together.

Ank is getting lynched tomorrow. If I am town and you are town, me getting lynched today is just going to make it harder to narrow down Ank’s partner, because any of you, Alonzo, or Chennisden could be the partner. On the other hand if I survive past today and make it all the way to 3-player lylo along with Shoshin, then scum!Ank literally has

NO

path to victory regardless of whether her partner is you, Alonzo, or Chennisden.

Town!you has zero reason to want me to be lynched today. Scum!you benefits from me being lynched today because it gives you that last ditch attempt to try and get either Alonzo or Chennisden mislynched on day 9 if the final three is either {Shoshin, DT, Alonzo} or {Shoshin, DT, Chennisden}.

So if you keep your vote on me and I end up getting lynched today,

then I’m taking that as a 100% full-blown scumclaim on your part

, and so should everyone else.

[chennisden]

DT has already scumclaimed many times

[chennisden]

DT dont game throw

[chennisden]

also shoshin, please vote alonzo

[Alonzo]

Volx throwing shade on RC today having borderline WK the slot previously is the heel turn we've been waiting for is it not??

[Shoshin]

What do you mean, Alonzo?

[volxen]

Volx throwing shade on RC today having borderline WK the slot previously is the heel turn we've been waiting for is it not??

Alonzo, I've maintained that the only reason why I townread your slot was because of the RC replace out. How is me reconsidering that "scummy"? And why is your first inclination to think that I am scum because of that? You haven't given me a reason to townlock you based on your actual gameplay, and the only thing you've used to defend yourself is the RC replace out. You seem to content to coast on that as a reason for everyone to just universally townread you.

Do you also realize what you're saying? You have Shoshin as town, so the only way that I am scum is if the scumteam is exactly Volxen/DT/SR. Implying that you would have to think that Auro's slot is town if you really believe that I am scum. Are you saying you believe that to be the case now?

Because unless you really believe that's the case, why are you fighting me so much? Because when you take the "emotions" out of today's lynch, from a pragmatic standpoint lynching me makes no sense because I am the only one out of us three that becomes 100% confirmed town upon Ank flipping scum. And the case against scum!Auro is even stronger than the case against scum!DT.

[Alonzo]

as I said before, Iv not had time to really dig deeper into what exactly your scum range could be, whereas I feel better Chenni is town I guess.

And I think your thinking my reads are more concrete than they are, Iv stated im not as informed as Id like to be.

Our choice is simple, we either agree to vote chenni or we dont.

Il revisit FLs brief cameo, but I felt like you turned on a good read, whereas I dont recall you ever having a strong Town lean on Clem/chen.

[Alonzo]

and obv FMPOV scum want my lynch over Chenn today

[volxen]

as I said before, Iv not had time to really dig deeper into what exactly your scum range could be, whereas I feel better Chenni is town I guess.

And I think your thinking my reads are more concrete than they are, Iv stated im not as informed as Id like to be.

Our choice is simple, we either agree to vote chenni or we dont.

Il revisit FLs brief cameo, but I felt like you turned on a good read, whereas I dont recall you ever having a strong Town lean on Clem/chen.

Alonzo, do you understand the mechanical things I was talking about? Like how I cannot be scum with you/Chennisden/Auro? So when you talk about scum!Volxen, you are implying that you aren't certain of Auro's slot being scum. Shoshin seems to be extremely confident that Auro is scum. I am extremely confident that Auro is scum. Chennisden is extremely confident that Auro is scum. Even if you are town (and I still think that you probably are town), this raises concerns with respect to how you will vote in lylo. I know you

said

you will sheep Shoshin in lylo, but when you keep talking as if you still think Auro might be town, how can we all be certain of this? For example you said this about FL:

1) Would he? Did you?

2) You cant, suffice to say i think youve done enough as either alignment to win so far so id likely vote with you, but you are right its not a guarantee

3)I voted at the start of the day but unvoted at volx request

4)Again, im null on alot of folk, you included. At times i will TR you strongly, but as soon as I revisit D1, it fades again...

5)

Prior to now i was gonna offer my life as tribute, but i think flavours short cameo stirred me to life, made me realise i need to stop being a sheep in this one.

Also, I dont want the townies accusing me of a throw.

6) Outside of Volxs huge appeals I dont easily follow their trail of thought? Again, having re read chenni Hes def got potential to flip red here with the right 'mentor' guiding him

To be clear, I am not saying that the most likely scenario is that you are scum. I'm saying that I'm not 100% sold on you being town. There's a difference. The most likely scenario is what we have been talking about all along: an Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading scumteam.

Alonzo, I want you to take the emotions out of this lynch and try to see things from my perspective. If Shoshin/Chennisden/Volxen are all essentially 100% on Auro's slot being scum, and scum!Auro = town!Volxen, then why should I be lynched today? Do you not think that having someone who is 100% confirmed town in lylo is a major advantage? I would actually become confirmed town; the RC replace out does not make you confirmed town. Can you make a purely objective argument for this?

[volxen]

Also Alonzo, you almost voted for Shoshin during day five lylo until I called you out on this and told you not to:

Intent to vote shosh

Intent to vote shosh

Wait, what? Don't do that, you are lylo gambiting here Alonzo.

If I'm right about Shoshin being town, the scumteam is either Auro/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading or Chennisden/DoubtingThomas/Scumreading. Auro and Chennisden are never scum together for the reasons I explained in post 2605.

[volxen]

@Alonzo, The two fundamental questions for you are

1) Do you trust that Shoshin is town?
2) If so, do you trust that she is right about Auro being scum?

If the answer to both of those questions is “yes” then you already know that I’m town regardless of whether you like the fact that I am saying that RC’s replace out doesn’t mean that you are confirmed town. Now you mentioned the scenario of Chennisden being scum. If Chennisden is scum here is how things could play out today if I am lynched:

Day 6: I am lynched.

Day 7: The final five are {Shoshin, Alonzo, Chennisden, Ank, DT}. Ank is lynched.

Day 8: Let’s just assume that scum!Chenn doesn’t self-nominate for a third time. So the final four are {Shoshin, Alonzo, Chennisden, DT} with the nominees being {Shoshin, Alonzo, DT}. DT is lynched.

Day 9: The final three are {Shoshin, Alonzo, Chennisden}.

And that puts Shoshin in a position where she has to make a judgement call between you vs Chennisden, because neither of you will be objectively 100% confirmed town. Whereas if both Shoshin and I make it to the final three, we automatically

KNOW

that the third person is scum because scum!Auro = town!Volxen. It doesn’t matter whether the final three are {Shoshin, Volxen, Alonzo} or {Shoshin, Volxen, Chennisden} or {Shoshin, Volxen, DoubtingThomas}, in each case there is one and only one person who will get lynched: the person that isn’t Shoshin or I.

As I said before, it

LITERALLY

gives scum!Ank no way to eek out a win here regardless of which one of {DT, Alonzo, Chennisden} is her partner. So even in the scenario where Chenn is scum with Ank, it eventually works itself out the end – you being lynched today would simply delay Chenn’s inevitable future lynch if he really is scum with Ank.

Scum!Chenn still loses even if you get lynched today

. And from everyone else’s perspective, the same applies if you are scum with Ank and Chenn gets lynched today: you would just be delaying your inevitable future lynch and you would still lose in the end.

But we only can guarantee that if I go all the way to 3-player lylo with Shoshin.

It’s a 100% guaranteed town win against scum!Ank

. It’s not possible to achieve this if I get lynched today. Now do you see where I am coming from? This isn’t about me being survivalistic, it’s about having confirmed town in lylo to guarantee that town wins.

[Shoshin]

Hey Volx, why can't scum be you/Auro?

[volxen]

Hey Volx, why can't scum be you/Auro?

DT helped to prove that can't be the case when he voted for you in lylo, since if that were the case Auro and I would have voted for you and quickhammered you (SR already had his vote on you). It's the same reason why I also can't be scum with Alonzo or Chennisden.

If I am scum with any of Auro/Chenn/Alonzo, I never would hammer scum!SR after seeing town!DT vote for town!Shoshin in lylo.

I don't even care about this fucking game. I'd rather lose to scum reading who actually plays like a human being than have a 0.01% chance of losing to scum!you.

You are a delusional liar.

VOTE: shoshin

VOTE: Scumreading

[Shoshin]

I guess Ank's given up?

[volxen]

I guess Ank's given up?

I can't really blame her.

[ejjinami]

DoubtingThomas has been prodded.

[Alonzo]

End today and get lynching alreety

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Alonzo

Alright, whatever.

I think Alonzo's flipping town but so are Volx/Chenn.

[Alonzo]

Good luck town.

[Shoshin]

Are you hammered yet?

[Shoshin]

Do you agree with the general assessment that lynching DT/Ank should win the game?

[ejjinami]

Ankamius has been prodded.

[ejjinami]

bump