Newbie 1926: Baseball (Game Over)

[the worst]

Hi Marcus done with work?
Can you quickly show me what you see as scummy from whig? (allow for his absence recently; that's slowly picking away at my read on him as well. :/)

[Marcus325]

Well the absence doesn't help, but reading through his posts (only 5) doesn't seem to be actively scumhunting

[Marcus325]

Actually looking through I just realised they would be getting replaced, so may have to wait for replacement to get a new read

[the worst]

That might be fair. I don't think I'll have a confident read without a replacement either tbqh

[brassherald]

PvtUrist replaces Whig

[the worst]

YOOOO URIST

[Godmid]

While I don't want to appear as just knee-jerk retaliating against the players voting me, the issue I have with The Worst and urap2 is that they've seemingly arrived to the same conclusion on the most likely scumteam (myself and Denmon) despite presenting very different arguments as to why they've arrived at that conclusion. urap2 seems to just be citing the 'greeting tell' while The Worst seems to just be going off of process of elimination by claiming that everyone else is either a town lean or doesn't fit onto a team with any of the scum leans.

If both of them were using the same logic to come up with their opinions, both of them coming up with the same scum team would make sense. However, this does not appear to be the case due to the heavy variations in the arguments given.

If both of them are talented scumhunters who consistently deduce the identities of scum, both of them coming up with the same scum team would once again make sense. However, at least from my point of view, they are both incorrect on at least one case. While it's possible that they are correct in identifying Denmon as mafia and I'm coming off scummier then I should as town and the scum reads on me are justified, I'm skeptical of the "talented scumhunters on the same wavelength" scenario for obvious reasons.

As a result, I see it as unlikely that they both ended up independently arriving on the same opinion on the exact scumteam and see it as more likely that one of them is town and one of them is mafia who is echoing the conclusions of the other to guide the lynch into a pro-mafia direction without being independently accountable should the day end in a mislynch.


Additionally, individually, The Worst has come off as a genuinely friendly player. However, similar to why I was scumreading Lavendar, he has seemingly gone out of his way to avoid allienating players (for example, even when he made his scum team accusation, he avoided explicitly calling anyone out as a scum lean, he just called pretty much every other player a town lean). I will go more in depth as to why I see allienation avoidance as a scum tell if needed.

For urap2, he's made very little effort to impact the game and he's effective agreed to this.

Why should I excite the gamestate? I think the team is Godmid + denmen for the greeting tell - twice from denmen's slot lol

How about that, eh?

While I do not know the history of the 'greeting tell' or whether it has consistently worked in the past, by taking this approach, urap2 is allowing himself to take a backseat in the day chat while maintaining the excuse that it's because he is already confident he knows who the scum is, which is even more suspicious from my perspective where I know that his current scum prediction is incorrect.

[Godmid]

I'll also mention the players I'm currently against lynching...

Shoshin - I gave the reasons for initialy town reading her in post 110. Since then, she went from being fairly proactive at the start to going fully into the background. I'm still going to stick with my initial leaning for the time being.
Whig - At the time, I really didn't think all that much about him. His more casual nature and fairly well reasoned argument behind his vote did make him seem somewhat townish, even if some of the town leans on him seemed overblown. I'm leaning more town on him after the replacement, since I think that it's fairly likely that he replaced out due to lack of interest (seeing how he stopped posting within the first 24 hours of the game) and I don't think that he would be as likely to replace out as mafia due to his fairly pro town position.
Ryno - I'm not going to explain this further for the time being.

And then a couple of questions...

@Shoshin: As the other SE in the game who has played with urap2 and The Worst, do you find the behaviour they've shown this game to be consistent with their normal play? Particularly on The Worst's unwilligness to peg anyone as a scum lean besides writing every other player down as a town lean and urap2's willigness to not really impact the game due to first post reads?

@The Worst: You seem to be trying to push myself and Denmon as the most likely scum team. However, as far as I can see, you haven't given a reason for finding me scummy besides leaning town on most of the other players. Are you going to make an argument against me specifically, or are you just basing it off of process of elimination?

@Ryno: Same general topic as before. You opened up the game by criticising the use of tells, then soon after tried to build a case against Lavendar using tells. Were your opening criticisms your genuine feelings?

[the worst]

Sorry Godmid, I'll read your posts in detail a bit later/tomorrow. In the middle of a game atm.

Largely process of elimination, though it's not just that I don't townread your posts. I thought your opening angle on Shoshin wasn't a particularly critical solve-y angle so much as something that vexed you and made it look like you were busy (which isn't alignment indicative at best / scum indicative at worst). the way you backed off in 110 with a kinda hedgy townread pinged me as well. i agree with the dead, i just don't see how you think the stated reasons are explicitly town indicative.

your push onto lavender after that felt opportunistic and pre-emptive. like if i was scum against her in this list i'd be pressuring her to see if she broke as well, hence why i'm pro giving her a chance to open her brain for us.

these posts give me more to read which excites me but if you're down sometime perhaps we can try to exchange posts in real time?

[the worst]

regarding your first comment:
there's no necessity for urap2 and i to be talented scumhunters to reach the same conclusion at all
you're looking at a list of 9 people. if 3 people are townreadable, and the two people involved townread each other, there's a 25% chance of them identifying the same scumteam.
do you think urap2 is scum pocketing me by following my reads to reach this conclusion? vice versa; do you think i'm scum pocketing urap2 by sheeping his scumteam suggestion?
the effort you're going to on this page is set up in a way so as to make both of our slots look bad to other players ("positioning"), rather than genuinely trying to sort which of us may or may not be scum.

the way you appeal to shoshin in 207 is also a leading question which is another instance of positioning

i'm really bad at alienating people, and especially being alienating in newbie games makes me feel physically sick (i can link IC/"Inexperience Challenged" meta as both alignments to back this up. urap + urist are both previous victims of my SE/IC play. sho is also aware it's pretty exceptional for me to be pushed into a situation where i alienate players and it usually involves a kind of personal slight

[the worst]

Whig - At the time, I really didn't think all that much about him. His more casual nature and fairly well reasoned argument behind his vote did make him seem somewhat townish, even if some of the town leans on him seemed overblown. I'm leaning more town on him after the replacement, since I think that it's fairly likely that he replaced out due to lack of interest (seeing how he stopped posting within the first 24 hours of the game) and I don't think that he would be as likely to replace out as mafia due to his fairly pro town position.

ughghfughudfgh i'm so going off using replace outs as reasons to read people
but can you talk me through what you think was going through whig's head to make him town? => why scum!whig wouldn't go through this process?

[the worst]

i lost my game by the way

the spire slayed me

[Marcus325]

@the worst whats ypur experience with this 'greeting tell'?

[brassherald]

VC after work, by the way. Had a few too many things to do before work this morning.

[DENMON]

Hello everyone.

Hey team.

Heya!

This one also occured, but I'm town reading Ryno. I don't agree with his approach, but the thought process and approach feel genuine, and I'll be surprised if it was all scum trying to get town cred for inexperience

Hello, friends!

Eh? How do greetings correlate with being mafia? I've never seen this before in my experience

[DENMON]

*ahem*

RYNO'S MASTER PLAN:

My aim was to push a scum into frustration by accusing them with little/no reason. Lavender was the victim, and I think it payed off. They very quickly became fixated on WHY I was reading them as scum, which comes across to me as the 'scum newbie annoyed they got caught out early in the game' and they wanted to know if I genuinely was reading them (and if so, HOW ON EARTH) or the self-assuring knowledge that I was bullshitting. All of which seems like scum-thinking to me. Plus the lynch votes probably made them nervous/backed into a corner. There's a tendency to run away with worry - 'oh no, i'm suspected from the start, i'm going to get lynched'. A townie would be much more focussed on making their own reads. See the following...

'Ryno, My eager to please thing you have of me, is it because of my answering questions?'

'Can you tell me what made you think that of me?'

'Ok, but can you to tell me where you get this feeling from?'

'That's quite bold, can you tell me where I have been scummy?'

'Well I really want to ask why Ryno has any big evidence for voting me and such. But they seem very inclined not to give that information.'

'So why say, let others read their take and show everyone else, and not just let yourself reveal your read?

I hereby rest my case against Lavender. Although, I would suggest that with only 2 scum, we don't need to lynch until F5.

Therefore, UNVOTE: Lavender

I would disagree here. The problem with what you were trying to do was that basically everyone will give a similar response in the situation that Lavender was in. You yell at someone that they are mafia for little reason, then the victim will ask naturally why you are yelling at him. Therefore I don't think this means Lavender is red nor green.

[DENMON]

How do I change the time zone here? I must have clicked the wrong one when I registered my account >.>

[DENMON]

While I don't want to appear as just knee-jerk retaliating against the players voting me, the issue I have with The Worst and urap2 is that they've seemingly arrived to the same conclusion on the most likely scumteam (myself and Denmon) despite presenting very different arguments as to why they've arrived at that conclusion. urap2 seems to just be citing the 'greeting tell' while The Worst seems to just be going off of process of elimination by claiming that everyone else is either a town lean or doesn't fit onto a team with any of the scum leans.

If both of them were using the same logic to come up with their opinions, both of them coming up with the same scum team would make sense. However, this does not appear to be the case due to the heavy variations in the arguments given.

If both of them are talented scumhunters who consistently deduce the identities of scum, both of them coming up with the same scum team would once again make sense. However, at least from my point of view, they are both incorrect on at least one case. While it's possible that they are correct in identifying Denmon as mafia and I'm coming off scummier then I should as town and the scum reads on me are justified, I'm skeptical of the "talented scumhunters on the same wavelength" scenario for obvious reasons.

As a result, I see it as unlikely that they both ended up independently arriving on the same opinion on the exact scumteam and see it as more likely that one of them is town and one of them is mafia who is echoing the conclusions of the other to guide the lynch into a pro-mafia direction without being independently accountable should the day end in a mislynch.


Additionally, individually, The Worst has come off as a genuinely friendly player. However, similar to why I was scumreading Lavendar, he has seemingly gone out of his way to avoid allienating players (for example, even when he made his scum team accusation, he avoided explicitly calling anyone out as a scum lean, he just called pretty much every other player a town lean). I will go more in depth as to why I see allienation avoidance as a scum tell if needed.

For urap2, he's made very little effort to impact the game and he's effective agreed to this.

Why should I excite the gamestate? I think the team is Godmid + denmen for the greeting tell - twice from denmen's slot lol

How about that, eh?

While I do not know the history of the 'greeting tell' or whether it has consistently worked in the past, by taking this approach, urap2 is allowing himself to take a backseat in the day chat while maintaining the excuse that it's because he is already confident he knows who the scum is, which is even more suspicious from my perspective where I know that his current scum prediction is incorrect.

Mafia wants to seem unrelated to each other, so when one of their members die, it will take a good amount of effort to link that guy to the remaining red. That said, I think that either they are both green or one of them is red and the other is green. Idk who I would pick if one of them were to be red. Maybe u r a person 2 because I agreed with the worst more often, but that doesn't actually mean anything.

[u r a person 2]

Eh? How do greetings correlate with being mafia? I've never seen this before in my experience

Go take a gander through the newbie games listed on my wiki.

At least for new players, greeting the thread in the first post is pretty heavily scum-indicative. It's not absolute. There are false positives, but it's something like twice as likely to come from scum than from town

[DENMON]

Eh? How do greetings correlate with being mafia? I've never seen this before in my experience

Go take a gander through the newbie games listed on my wiki.

At least for new players, greeting the thread in the first post is pretty heavily scum-indicative. It's not absolute. There are false positives, but it's something like twice as likely to come from scum than from town

Huh, that is pretty strange. I think it is more of a coincidence than something that mafia just does. But just in case, I guess I'll keep my eye out for Godmid then O.o

[u r a person 2]

I think it takes a lot of new players some time to get comfortable with their scum PM

Their early awkwardness manifests in them not being able to figure out how to start a post, and some sort of generic "hey guys" is a common result. It's a sub section of the more general newbie-scum-make-awkward-entrances tell

[PvtUrist]

Howdy laddies and Shoshin, I'll talk about reads tomorrow.

[DENMON]

I think it takes a lot of new players some time to get comfortable with their scum PM

Their early awkwardness manifests in them not being able to figure out how to start a post, and some sort of generic "hey guys" is a common result. It's a sub section of the more general newbie-scum-make-awkward-entrances tell

This actually makes sense. (Should I not introduce myself in future games to reduce possible suspicion xD I normally do this when I don't know many people)
I'm actually gonna take this, and see if it checks out from where I usually play. I'm playing another game there that recently started that has a good amount of noobs O.o

[Ryno56]

"@Ryno: Same general topic as before. You opened up the game by criticising the use of tells, then soon after tried to build a case against Lavendar using tells. Were your opening criticisms your genuine feelings?"

I said the following:

'I'm simply dubious about the idea that someone relatively competent (50+ online games) can be read with any significant degree of success'

I think this forum is the result of getting a bunch of analytical people to over-analyse small things. The 'tells' we're playing with feel like almost entirely guesswork. I'm engaging with it because
1. That appears to be part of the 'fun'
2. I'm seeing if it actually exists in any meaningful sense, and whether or not I possess the ability to do it

It just feels like there's no real information to strategise with, so we basically have to invent our own game. It's weird. I'm not sure if I enjoy that.

[DENMON]

"@Ryno: Same general topic as before. You opened up the game by criticising the use of tells, then soon after tried to build a case against Lavendar using tells. Were your opening criticisms your genuine feelings?"

I said the following:

'I'm simply dubious about the idea that someone relatively competent (50+ online games) can be read with any significant degree of success'

I think this forum is the result of getting a bunch of analytical people to over-analyse small things. The 'tells' we're playing with feel like almost entirely guesswork. I'm engaging with it because
1. That appears to be part of the 'fun'
2. I'm seeing if it actually exists in any meaningful sense, and whether or not I possess the ability to do it

It just feels like there's no real information to strategise with, so we basically have to invent our own game. It's weird. I'm not sure if I enjoy that.

That is because it is day 1. We don't have any history, deaths, or voting patterns to start off with. Because of this, if you don't want to just randomly vote, you have to come up with pretty petty reasons. Once it is day 2, we can look at who voted the person that was lynched on day 1, why people voted for that person, and see if we can get a red using that information.