Fire on the Mountain [Over]

[RadiantCowbells]

I've had weird flu like symptoms for a while and it sucks

[Ankamius]

Want a hug?

[Akarin]

Okay, so people Grapes mentioned more than once:

Shoshin/Fuscosco

Xtoxm
DT/Dann
Vedith

Bujaber

Eagle/Enter/Akarin
Jingle/Frozen Angel

Alisae/RAS/Formerfish

People he mentioned exactly once

mcqueen

Reiuji Utsuho
Prince of Renais/PvtUrist/RC

[RadiantCowbells]

noting that i actually didn't remember until i read the circumstances and remembered that i was very sick the night of the 30th and the lynch happened before i recovered.

[Dannflor]

I've had weird flu like symptoms for a while and it sucks

yea I remember now

2. What is my alignment this game?

[RadiantCowbells]

you're one of two potential scumpartners

[Dannflor]

ok

3. what alignment is Jingle this game and why

[RadiantCowbells]

i have enough respect for FA's scum play to not call her literally never scum

but i don't think it increases our chances of winning this game to lynch jingle at any point before endgame

[Akarin]

Looking at the end of D1, staleness aside, is there some reason RC shouldn't be locktown after that grapes push?

[Dannflor]

Okay.

So, I definitely am taking the replacements as somewhat alignment indicative, I don't know if that makes me a worse player or what but it's definitely hard for me to factor out or ignore. It's unfortunate that it happened and I feel bad about it but what can you do.

Thus,

Tohru
Akarin
Saudade
Psyche

are town.

This doesn't change much since Tohru, Akarin, and Saudade were already pretty town slots. However, it is helpful in regards to the Liger slot, though I town read that by play anyways.

I also think

Ankamius
Jingle
Vedith
RadiantCowbells

are town.

I think the only time I'm ever wrong about any of the above reads is a potential Jingle/RadiantCowbells scum team. However, I think the chances of that are very slim given how both have played the game and to be honest I don't see enough evidence here to actually push this no matter how hard I look. I wouldn't be mad at all about losing to that team, and I think it's basically a less than 1% chance. So, irrational paranoia aside, all of the above can be town too.

Ankamius, I feel is self explanatory and I can go into Vedith if people need me too, but I'm fairly confident in all of the above.

That leaves:

xtoxm
or
Max

And we have two lynches to hit scum, which is pretty good odds. These have all been in the PoE since ~D2 as well they've just avoided lynch either because they accumulated town reads or town got paranoid and started pushing other lynches.

This is where I'm sorting/lynching within unless someone I trust offers compelling evidence otherwise.

I'm also most inclined to town read xtoxm out of those 3. Reason being, if the scum team is within this PoE, to quote NSG: "A scumteam caught early on will push each other down to stay afloat." Max and DDL have basically wanted to lynch each other for a while, while xtoxm has basically called them all lynch bait and been more focused with scum within the "town block." Max and DDL have been trying to set each other up for endgame but xtoxm hasn't really been doing that for anyone as far as I can see.

Thus, I'd like to lynch within [or/Max] today.

Let me know if anyone strongly disagrees with me anywhere.

[Vedith]

I think Max

[Akarin]

Could you towncase Vedith for me please, Dann?

[RadiantCowbells]

we're not lynching max btw

[Dannflor]

are you still waiting for psyche to do more things to present your solve RC

And yes Akarin when I get back to a computer

[Jingle]

If this was the game where me and raybells were finally scum together I would cry a little inside.

[Dannflor]

me too

[Psyche]

I’ll read Day 1 as requested

[Jingle]

So, I definitely am taking the replacements as somewhat alignment indicative, I don't know if that makes me a worse player or what but it's definitely hard for me to factor out or ignore. It's unfortunate that it happened and I feel bad about it but what can you do.

I mean, I'd probably argue against the later replacements being necessarily town if they weren't already locktown.

And congratulations, you came to the same PoE I just did, but without your name in the lynch pool.

[Jingle]

I’ll read Day 1 as requested

When you're finished, you should self vote. It'll be hilarious.

[RadiantCowbells]

And congratulations, you came to the same PoE I just did, but without your name in the lynch pool.

This minus max
.

[MaxwellPuckett]

I'm also most inclined to town read xtoxm out of those 3. Reason being, if the scum team is within this PoE, to quote NSG: "A scumteam caught early on will push each other down to stay afloat." Max and DDL have basically wanted to lynch each other for a while, while xtoxm has basically called them all lynch bait and been more focused with scum within the "town block." Max and DDL have been trying to set each other up for endgame but xtoxm hasn't really been doing that for anyone as far as I can see.

Thus, I'd like to lynch within [or/Max] today.

Tbh im amazed you think a team like me and or wouldve been able to help along the fucking clusterfuck town has been all game

Youre positing a scumteam whos been trying to lynch each other all game as town self destructs and lynches itself while we either do literally nothing to help that along or actively avoid mislynches like Fish, who i was calling town and continued to call town as all the heavy hitters decided to lynch him
Before he faked scumclaimed but w/e
Or could still be scum and i now think dann has a good chance too bc this conclusion is just so easy


I also question the wisdom of going arms deep on grapes associations, still, when players have apparently been doing that all game and repeatedly coming up with nothing

i know hes the only scumflip all game but it was d1 and his iso doesnt have a lot in it
The likelihood of it being incidentals is so high

[RadiantCowbells]

No actually

The only lynch based off associatives was McQueen

It's ok Max I got you

[MaxwellPuckett]

I thought Buj was too but w/e i may have misunderstood

My point remains theres no proof grapes had meaningful partner interactions on the first day
incidentally this is also why town winrates can take a hit w a day 1 scum lynch and its bc town starts seeing things that arent there within the iso and associations of the one scum they caught

But yeah idk how relevant that is to today,
Also my suspicion ofJingle has gone down a lot after actually seeing Fish flip town

[RadiantCowbells]

we mislynched because everyone was searching for deepwolves and bussers instead of lynching the people who actually resisted the wagon.

[Akarin]

Based off grapes interactios, my lynchpool would be:
Xtoxm, Dann, Vedith, or
Doesn't sound like people think that's such a crazy set of players anyway

Is this such a bad starting place it needs protesting?